2016 Vuelta a España, stage 17: Castellón > Mas de la Costa

[bambino]

Re: Re:

This is for Contador's to lose. He has been really strong in 1st 4 km of any climb in Vuelta (we know what has happened after those 4km though) and actually throughout the year.

Actually he got dropped on all short climbs as well but it's the day after the rest day so who knows

Yeah, but only after 4 km

 

[Arredondo]

Froome to do a Formigal and be in red with + 3 minutes

 

[The Barb]

I kinda expect Sky/Froome to bounce back on this. Not to take significant time from Nairo but stage win would not surprise at all.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Froome's going to crack big time.

for some mysterious reason you post something like this before any vuelta big stage. a bit of negative bias involved?

Strange post. Pretty sure this is the first time I've posted this about Froome before a stage.

Also, while I don't see it happening, given that he pretty much cracked the last hilly stage it's not an altogether unreasonable guess.

 

[Laplaz]

I expect Froome to go mayhem in week 3.

 

[dusty red roads]

Will he? Or will he fade? Has he already been fading? I don't know, with him it could go either way.

 

[movingtarget]

I think Quintana could crack Froome but if he does it means everyone else will have cracked as well. The key for Froome is the TT. If he does a good one he looks fine for a podium. The fatigue factor seemed to hit him two days ago so how he manages the rest of the race will be interesting but Chaves and Contador have also had some issues but Contador should do much better in the TT than Chaves. Quintana only has to stay upright now and do a reasonable TT. Chaves should be good on the climbs this week but he still has to do a decent TT. A bit like the Tour in the final week really. The podium battle is more interesting as first place already seems to be decided.

 

[PremierAndrew]

It's so so similar to Pena Cabarga. 35-40ºC expected, and it comes after a rest day.

What more could Froome want as far as the stage is concerned? (Doesn't help his overall ambitions much, but the stage suits him perfectly)

 

[capuldemetal]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Ar1c_8SVBPE it's a beast!

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

I think Quintana could crack Froome but if he does it means everyone else will have cracked as well. The key for Froome is the TT. If he does a good one he looks fine for a podium. The fatigue factor seemed to hit him two days ago so how he manages the rest of the race will be interesting but Chaves and Contador have also had some issues but Contador should do much better in the TT than Chaves. Quintana only has to stay upright now and do a reasonable TT. Chaves should be good on the climbs this week but he still has to do a decent TT. A bit like the Tour in the final week really. The podium battle is more interesting as first place already seems to be decided.

The only one who looks like he can potentially put some time into Quintana is Chaves, going off the past 2 mountain stages, but not nearly enough to bridge the current deficit.
Quintana is the better of the Colombians in the TT although Chaves has certainly improved this aspect.
Contador is a superior TTer to both Colombians although not nearly the TTer he once was; whatever he may gain in this aspect may well be more than counter-balanced on the road as he is the one who has been haemorraging the most time in the finales of the most recent mountain stages.
Froome is the best of the 4 in the TT and, at best, could take back the bulk of Quintana's margin but he realistically does not appear to be in TdF shape. He, too, has been haemorraging on the last couple of mountain stages but not to the extent of Contador.

My read at this point is:
1. Quintana .... unless he really blows up on the final stage or has a disastrous TT
2. Froome. If he were in TdF shape then he'd be closer to Quintana and could be backed in on the strength of his TT ..... but he's not. The issue is whether (1) he can close sufficiently to pressure Quintana into error and/or (2) can he hold off Chaves.
3. Chaves. He is potentially able to put a couple of minutes into either Froome or Contador or both. The issue is whether this will be sufficient to counter any TT losses.
4. Contador. He needs to put at least 1min/1.5min into Chaves in the TT.

 

[yaco]

Good post Dirk - Chavez has ridden strongly in the last two stages - Think he can win the stage if there is no breakaway.

 

[Isaak-Gabriel]

Re:

It's so so similar to Pena Cabarga. 35-40ºC expected, and it comes after a rest day.

What more could Froome want as far as the stage is concerned? (Doesn't help his overall ambitions much, but the stage suits him perfectly)

Not quite agree, Peña Cabarga is a tough climb in 3 parts, the first one is relatively steep (3km at 10%), then there is 500 meters flat/downhill section, where it's possible to earn some strenghts for the last 1,7 km who is the most difficult part of the climb. Mas de la Costa doesn't offer any period of rest, from the beginning to the top.

 

[hfer07]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 17: Castellón > Mas de la Co

When Contador claims this stage will be perhaps the hardest one, I can't help but thinking he's got a plan...



The Three greats Nairito, Froome & Contador to battle it out for the stage win (wishful thinking of course)

 

[Tank Engine]

There's a reasonably hard climb at the beginning, so I expect a strong break. Look out for Atapuma and Mientjes.

If the break gets brought back, Chaves will play more of a waiting game than on the Pena Cabarga and win his seond sprint in a row

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 17: Castellón > Mas de la Co

When Contador claims this stage will be perhaps the hardest one, I can't help but thinking he's got a plan...

I can't see it myself. a) It's not a short stage, b) there are 30km of pretty flat terrain both before and after the two climbs in the middle of the stage, c) the two middle climbs don't look overly hard, d) Movistar have a strong team, position and leader, so I think they'll play it conservately and are well able to control such a stage. I think that any attempt at an ambush will be brought back.

Before stage 15, I thought the gaps would probably be small, with a slight chance of an ambush. This time I hope that I'm more wrong

 

[Amnes2015]

i'm curious how many Sky will put in the break on the 1st climb. from 0 (incompetence) to 3 (we want Froome to love us again). If Tinkoff ads a few more at least we will watch the stage hoping that something will happen.

 

[Durden93]

I have to disagree with those who say Froome is out of it. He will gain time in the TT, probably 1:30. He will attack and look for the other 2 minutes he needs. I don't think it'll work, though. Chaves for the win.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

I have to disagree with those who say Froome is out of it. He will gain time in the TT, probably 1:30. He will attack and look for the other 2 minutes he needs. I don't think it'll work, though. Chaves for the win.

Have you seen the route? Froome in 2013 shape would struggle to get a minute outside the TT on 2016 Tour Quintana with the remaining parcours

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

I have to disagree with those who say Froome is out of it. He will gain time in the TT, probably 1:30. He will attack and look for the other 2 minutes he needs. I don't think it'll work, though. Chaves for the win.

Have you seen the route? Froome in 2013 shape would struggle to get a minute outside the TT on 2016 Tour Quintana with the remaining parcours

It's the third week of a hard GT, at the end of the season, anything can happen. Yes, I know that Froome and Quintana are both tired, but I think that when both are tired variance should go up. I should also clarify because I am a new user: I am neutral on Froome and have been cheering for a Quintana victory (although not necessarily a Quintana fan).

 

[ThePirate81]

I think Sky will keep the race closed cause Froome needs all bonus seconds he can get.
It's gonna be a GC battle on the brutally steep final climb and if Chaves has learned the lesson of Pena Cabarga he will succeed.

 

[DanielSong39]

Anything can happen and everyone's tired.

With that said, Froome will have to do something special to hold onto a podium place. Has nothing to do his talent; has everything to do with being tired from Tour de France and the Olympics, and the lack of form from his teammates.

A repeat of the 2012 Vuelta is very possible.

As for the podium spots, Quintana will probably win the race and it'll come down to whether Contador can make up enough time on the time trial on Chaves to make up for the time he's likely to lose climbing.

It would take a miracle of Nibali proportions for anyone other than Quintana to win the race.

 

[Robert5091]

Chaves needs time on Bertie and Froome needs time on Quintana. One would expect Sky and Orica to go full gas to the final climb. Don't think the break will make it as bonus seconds should tempt the GC guys. Only 4 km but a long slow grind ...Expect Froome to TT it and win by 10 secinds - or blew up spectacularly.

 

[Jelantik]

Re:

I have to disagree with those who say Froome is out of it. He will gain time in the TT, probably 1:30. He will attack and look for the other 2 minutes he needs. I don't think it'll work, though. Chaves for the win.

It's stage 19. week 3. Almost the end of the Vuelta. I doubt that Froome can take that much time on Quintana. Contador might surprise everyone. I'm curious on how sky will approach this stage? Is Froome going for broke, attacked from the bottom? I just don't see Froome risks his podium spot by going all or nothing.

 

[peloton]

By logic, Contador should be the most fresh one, having not finished the Tour nore done the Olympics. No Giro in the legs either.
But then again, he did crash quite a lot lately, which isn't helping.

Will be an interesting stage, and race is still wide open, remember Giro?

 

[spiritualride]

Re:

i'm curious how many Sky will put in the break on the 1st climb. from 0 (incompetence) to 3 (we want Froome to love us again). If Tinkoff ads a few more at least we will watch the stage hoping that something will happen.

Why should Sky put riders into the break?