2017 Giro d'Italia, Stage 4: Cefalú - Etna 181 km

[May0maniac]

I already mentioned that Cannondale should try to get one of their climbers who already lost some time, Rolland, Carthy or Dombrowski in the breakaway and have the others support Formolo. They should try to get one of those riders every single attempt to form the breakawy, same with CCC and Gazprom who also have multiple similar options (Hirt, Grossschartner and maybe even Schlegel/Foliforov and Firsanov).

 

[Singer01]

Anybody know what time they are due to arrive at Portella Femmina Morta?

 

[jens_attacks]

paolo tiralongo or enzo nibali plz

 

[King Boonen]

Pozzato to hang on and win the sprint...

 

[Red Rick]

If the headwind is too strong, a scenario like PtdB 2015 might haplen but with even less action and selection

 

[Gigs_98]

Please can anyone tell me where all the fuss about the headwind comes from? I haven't read about headwind on etna on tuesday anywhere and looking at wind forecast it neither looks very windy nor does the wind look like a headwind?

 

[SafeBet]

The wind (around 20 km/h) should come from NW, while the climb mostly points North.

 

[CatsNK]

Re: Re:

I have a feeling the break may make it here.

Quite likely. Don't think any of the teams with contenders want to burden themselves with a pink jersey this early.

This makes sense. We can always hope for some fireworks, though.

Last year showed that first-week performance really doesn't mean all that much. People were calling on Nibbles to drop out during the first week.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

The wind (around 20 km/h) should come from NW, while the climb mostly points North.

According to windfinder the wind speed will only be around 10 km/h, and will come from NW around 14:00 (at a time when riders will actually ride southeastwards so it will be tailwind around that time. Around 17:00 when the riders will really climb the wind should be from SW, so no headwind at all. Anyway I don't find any wind forecast which says that it will be complete headwind and that the wind will be extremely strong, so I definitely don't think the wind will have the huge impact which many people here seem to expect.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Tiralongo to ride for two tomorrow.

 

[jaylew]

I don't know if I agree with people saying nothing will really happen, though it could just be wishful thinking on my part. If you're feeling good you have to take any chance to gain time, particularly over the better TTers and the guys who could have possibly come into the Giro a little undercooked and/or who tend to get stronger as the race goes on.

 

[Escarabajo]

I don't quite understand why so many think that not much will happen. This is a seriously hard climb after all. What's the reasoning behind the "small time gaps" theory?

The headwind.

In the past when we have seen strong winds the main GC contenders try to shelter behind the domestiques until very close to the finish line.

Edit: If what Gigs is true then it would be a different ball game.

 

[rick james]

This is the kind of stage in the first week of a GT that Contador is sooo missed



anyways...... I expect either a breakaway winner or Landa/Pinot/G to out sprint the rest of the GC contenders with no gaps whatsoever....

What the hell? why even post crap like this?

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

If there is the usual headwind on Etna it won't be easy to attack.
I think a breakaway has a very decent shot here, unless some GC contender feels very good.

There are some rumors of trying to test Quintana early on in the race, considering his form might be not 100% if he's serious about the double.

Where are those rumours about Quintana? Sounds a bit optimistic to test Quintana's shape on one of the hardest uphill finishes, especially because he did really well in his first competition ride uphill in Asturias.

He came s/t with Alarcon. In the minds of many, that isn't that impressive. However it is a complete unknown as to how good his form is, so there's plenty of reason to test him.

 

[Ricco']

Meanwhile, father and son on holidays. What does Scinto have to say about this? Nothing, only god can judge them.

Also, little Kuba with his first tattoos.

 

[Carols]

Etna, Great Memories

I hope it's volcanic and some GC guy makes a Bold Move so we can see who has what in their legs. My guess is Landa will be the one. Narito and His Nibs will follow and if Thomas has anything to offer SKY will do the old 1,2.

My heart wants Nibali to be a Shark and take the stage and pink, but my head says they will all look at each other and make a few testing moves with nothing much happening by the end.

But the anticipation level is High!

 

[Tonton]

I don't see much happening. The pace will be high, with selection off the back, and attacks in the last 2-3 km. It's too early in the race: I don't know who would be wanting to spend to much energy, show his cards, risk a counter and time losses. I like this stage, but I'm afraid it will be raced conservatively. BOD to succeed. Among the GC guys, one or two will lose significant time: it's hard enough of a finish that if you're not quite peaking yet, it could hurt.

I'd rather not expect too much and be pleasantly surprised .

 

[70kmph]

What the heck, why is there a rest day... to travel or something, move all the crap on a boat

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I'm gonna have a go with the break to take it (Rolland maybe) with Yates the best of the GC guys.

Hope its not a waste of a stage where nothing happens.

 

[Netserk]

Arnaud Pinot to win the GC sprint

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Arnaud Pinot to win the GC sprint

If it comes down to a sprint, he may pull a Don Alejandrot . (fingers crossed)...

 

[spiritualride]

Re: Re:

I check Etna forecast and it is giving a 10mph NW wind during the estimated arrival time. The first 3rd of the climb is North but the last 2/3rds which are a bit harder are much more zig-zaggy, although the overall direction is NNW.

This isn't the TDF and I heard on this forum that the depth of climbing outside of the GC contenders and stage hunters isn't good. It's a steep MTF. Will there be domestiques able to chase down a serious attack, making the headwind a big hindrance to attacking?

I have a dumb strange feeling that there's a chance Thomas will go "full ***" as some posters would term it, and gap everyone on Etna. Maybe reading too much into his Trentino/Alps performance and prep hype. Those familiar with Landa's possible psychological viewing of the current situation seem to think Landa will attack... makes sense.

My heart hopes for a big early Nibali attack but my head says he will be one of the first GC riders dropped. Maybe his early drop will cause fireworks as the others push the pace further to put him out of contention.

In a scenario where there's an elite group, and one contender is feeling really good, I don't see what is risky about doing a little probing attack to see how others respond. There's a bigger risk in doing nothing but waiting until the last week when your rivals might be in relatively better form than now. There are too many ITT kms to sit and wait when Dumuluon and Thomas are in form.

Nibali's coach Slongo:

“Vincenzo’s SRM power meter from the ride showed there was just less than 4000m of climbing during the stage. It’s a hard stage and so they will already be tired when they get to the foot of the final climb. The racing in Sardinia has also been tough; they covered 2200m of climbing on stage 1 and then 3300m on stage 2. Then yesterday it was a fast stage and a hectic finale. Some people could be tired already and so Etna will definitely cause some problems.”

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/nib...talia-will-erupt-on-the-slopes-of-mount-etna/

 

[Tank Engine]

@TankEngine Im not saying that they are gonna attack stupidely but knowing Zakarin and his time deficit already im saying he might try something. Just some assumption for an unpredictable stage.

If you call a big a sprint as possible after a hard climb ballistic, then that's the sort of ballistic I'm thinking of, but ballistic seems far too strong a word for that. I think it's an ideal stage for Zak (in the end I predicted that he'd win).

I'm thinking (and hoping) that it will be something like his win in Paris-Nice last year (the association with the rider who came second then is, of course, only entirely intentional), rather than the sprint against Stoneface in Romandie (if I remember correctly) a year ago

 

[GraftPunk]

I'll stick with Quintana for the win, though how rational that is I don't know. It seems he'd try to peak early, get surplus time on the others and ride the remainder as conservatively as possible in preparation for the tour.

 

[Jspear]

This is the kind of stage in the first week of a GT that Contador is sooo missed



anyways...... I expect either a breakaway winner or Landa/Pinot/G to out sprint the rest of the GC contenders with no gaps whatsoever....

What the hell? why even post crap like this?

Because they miss AC on this kind of stage.