2017 Liège-Bastogne-Liège - April 23rd - 258k

[Valv.Piti]

Good tactics by Valverde today. Should have done that in Amstel as well.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re: Re:

Froome was 2nd on the Mur de Huy. Contador rode LBL in 2013 and was in an attack over the Redoute, even though it was his worst year in a decade. Bardet has challenged for a number of years now. Nibali won that hilly stage of the 2014 Tour. The length of the climbs in LBL is just enough for purer climbers to challenge the punchers. It's a lot of 3-5 minute efforts.

The problem is not that they can't do it. The problem is that most don't want to peak for a week in which they may not ever get results because gaps are so small and the field is so deep.

A Tour de France stage just isn't comparable to a one day race though. The specialists aren't there in top form, and fatigue from previous days plays much more of a role. The stages tend to be a lot more aerobic than the constant anaerobic demands of a classic. Re. Contador in 2013 - of course some climbers can get a gap on an isolated climb, but they can't do it repeatedly and then solo to the line after 250km - and none of them can sprint. So they're not realistic contenders.

We saw it in the Olympics last year - which the GC riders there did peak for. A lot of people tipping the likes of Froome and even Porte (!); but they faded and the top 5 was ultimately filled by riders with decent one-day pedigree.

There's just no evidence to suggest that Froome or Contador at their peak nowdays could seriously challenge for a win at LBL. Froome, in particular, would just be using up a place of a much more talented one day racer at Sky.

This is Ridiculous!
Just to prove you wrong, Bardet to Top 5 today

 

[MikeTichondrius]

Peloton still pretty big. Break has to be running low on gas. Still, 3:30 for 30k is gonna need some proper chasing...

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re:

Peloton still pretty big. Break has to be running low on gas. Still, 3:30 for 30k is gonna need some proper chasing...

Nah, there's a headwind

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Good tactics by Valverde today. Should have done that in Amstel as well.

Not sure about that. He is wasting energy. That's what his main lieutenants should do. Shutting down attacks from the outsiders.

 

[the asian]

Re: Re:

Froome was 2nd on the Mur de Huy. Contador rode LBL in 2013 and was in an attack over the Redoute, even though it was his worst year in a decade. Bardet has challenged for a number of years now. Nibali won that hilly stage of the 2014 Tour. The length of the climbs in LBL is just enough for purer climbers to challenge the punchers. It's a lot of 3-5 minute efforts.

The problem is not that they can't do it. The problem is that most don't want to peak for a week in which they may not ever get results because gaps are so small and the field is so deep.

A Tour de France stage just isn't comparable to a one day race though. The specialists aren't there in top form, and fatigue from previous days plays much more of a role. The stages tend to be a lot more aerobic than the constant anaerobic demands of a classic. Re. Contador in 2013 - of course some climbers can get a gap on an isolated climb, but they can't do it repeatedly and then solo to the line after 250km - and none of them can sprint. So they're not realistic contenders.

We saw it in the Olympics last year - which the GC riders there did peak for. A lot of people tipping the likes of Froome and even Porte (!); but they faded and the top 5 was ultimately filled by riders with decent one-day pedigree.

There's just no evidence to suggest that Froome or Contador at their peak nowdays could seriously challenge for a win at LBL. Froome, in particular, would just be using up a place of a much more talented one day racer at Sky.

This is Ridiculous!
Just to prove you wrong, Bardet to Top 5 today

Bardet has good one day racing pedigree.
Infact he was tipped by many to become a hilly classics rider.

Froome doesn't and will never become succesful in Mounments.

A 260 KM race is much harder than your average Grand Tour Stage.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Peloton still pretty big. Break has to be running low on gas. Still, 3:30 for 30k is gonna need some proper chasing...

Nah, there's a headwind

Flags looked pretty still on the Redoute

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Froome was 2nd on the Mur de Huy. Contador rode LBL in 2013 and was in an attack over the Redoute, even though it was his worst year in a decade. Bardet has challenged for a number of years now. Nibali won that hilly stage of the 2014 Tour. The length of the climbs in LBL is just enough for purer climbers to challenge the punchers. It's a lot of 3-5 minute efforts.

The problem is not that they can't do it. The problem is that most don't want to peak for a week in which they may not ever get results because gaps are so small and the field is so deep.

A Tour de France stage just isn't comparable to a one day race though. The specialists aren't there in top form, and fatigue from previous days plays much more of a role. The stages tend to be a lot more aerobic than the constant anaerobic demands of a classic. Re. Contador in 2013 - of course some climbers can get a gap on an isolated climb, but they can't do it repeatedly and then solo to the line after 250km - and none of them can sprint. So they're not realistic contenders.

We saw it in the Olympics last year - which the GC riders there did peak for. A lot of people tipping the likes of Froome and even Porte (!); but they faded and the top 5 was ultimately filled by riders with decent one-day pedigree.

There's just no evidence to suggest that Froome or Contador at their peak nowdays could seriously challenge for a win at LBL. Froome, in particular, would just be using up a place of a much more talented one day racer at Sky.

This is Ridiculous!
Just to prove you wrong, Bardet to Top 5 today

I haven't said anything about Bardet. I was talking about Froome and Contador.

Bardet, imo, is one of the best GC contenders at one day races - because he has a bit more anaerobic punch. He has top 10s and has looked threatening in both Lombardia and Liege. Contador (post ban) and Froome quite simply have never threatened for the win in any classic. Which is probably why they don't bother entering any more, while Bardet does.

 

[Gigs_98]

Lol, this could actually get dangerous

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Peloton still pretty big. Break has to be running low on gas. Still, 3:30 for 30k is gonna need some proper chasing...

Nah. They look very tired.

The favorites should be more concerned about the size of the peloton. It's still very large.

 

[Red Rick]

Etixx recognizing the break danger. Now the break is just more benefit for Valverde.

 

[TomLPC]

"You want to chase this or should we?"

 

[Valv.Piti]

I'd like to see a peak Quintana here. Its probably not gonna happen and chances are he won't get more than a top-10, but such a long and hard enduro race should suit him well on paper, no?

 

[Velolover2]

Fast danger men like Felline and GVA still in the peloton?

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re: Re:

A 260 KM race is much harder than your average Grand Tour Stage.

I liked it, when the Grand Tours included stages with that length and a classics profile.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Peloton still pretty big. Break has to be running low on gas. Still, 3:30 for 30k is gonna need some proper chasing...

Nah. They look very tired.

The favorites should be more concerned about the size of the peloton. It's still very large.

VMT. Unless I'm mistaken, Matthews is still there, so is GVA and a lot of other dangerous puncheurs who can potentialy go solo. And not much time left to drop them.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Re: Re:

Froome was 2nd on the Mur de Huy. Contador rode LBL in 2013 and was in an attack over the Redoute, even though it was his worst year in a decade. Bardet has challenged for a number of years now. Nibali won that hilly stage of the 2014 Tour. The length of the climbs in LBL is just enough for purer climbers to challenge the punchers. It's a lot of 3-5 minute efforts.

The problem is not that they can't do it. The problem is that most don't want to peak for a week in which they may not ever get results because gaps are so small and the field is so deep.

A Tour de France stage just isn't comparable to a one day race though. The specialists aren't there in top form, and fatigue from previous days plays much more of a role. The stages tend to be a lot more aerobic than the constant anaerobic demands of a classic. Re. Contador in 2013 - of course some climbers can get a gap on an isolated climb, but they can't do it repeatedly and then solo to the line after 250km - and none of them can sprint. So they're not realistic contenders.

We saw it in the Olympics last year - which the GC riders there did peak for. A lot of people tipping the likes of Froome and even Porte (!); but they faded and the top 5 was ultimately filled by riders with decent one-day pedigree.

There's just no evidence to suggest that Froome or Contador at their peak nowdays could seriously challenge for a win at LBL. Froome, in particular, would just be using up a place of a much more talented one day racer at Sky.

This is Ridiculous!
Just to prove you wrong, Bardet to Top 5 today

I haven't said anything about Bardet. I was talking about Froome and Contador.

Bardet, imo, is one of the best GC contenders at one day races - because he has a bit more anaerobic punch. He has top 10s and has looked threatening in both Lombardia and Liege. Contador (post ban) and Froome quite simply have never threatened for the win in any classic. Which is probably why they don't bother entering any more, while Bardet does.

Of all the GC guys Nibali is the best Unfortunately his training has gotten pretty weird every since 2013

 

[markene2]

Break could make it

 

[Flamin]

Never heard of this Perez guy btw. Strong guy.

 

[Richeypen]

Has anyone got a working stream? All my normal ones are non funtioning

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I'd like to see a peak Quintana here. Its probably not gonna happen and chances are he won't get more than a top-10, but such a long and hard enduro race should suit him well on paper, no?

I think he could do very well at a hard version of Lombardia. It's impossible to see how he could win or threaten on Liege though I think - especially on this course. He can't solo away and TT for 30km, the way it's ridden these days with a biggish peloton until late on, and he can't sprint. Also not the best descender.

Maybe a cold and wet edition that becomes a real race of attrition where the race breaks early would give him a chance.

 

[Gigs_98]

Has anyone got a working stream? All my normal ones are non funtioning

http://live.robinwidget.org/streamvideo8/cycling-vs-liege-bastogne-liege-live-stream-195030.html

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re:

Never heard of this Perez guy btw. Strong guy.

Turned pro late, has no notable results. Domestique until now.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Peloton still pretty big. Break has to be running low on gas. Still, 3:30 for 30k is gonna need some proper chasing...

Nah. They look very tired.

The favorites should be more concerned about the size of the peloton. It's still very large.

VMT. Unless I'm mistaken, Matthews is still there, so is GVA and a lot of other dangerous puncheurs who can potentialy go solo. And not much time left to drop them.

Very true.

And Valverde looks relatively isolated. No workhorses left. Could be a huge problem.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Of all the GC guys Nibali is the best Unfortunately his training has gotten pretty weird every since 2013

I think Valverde is head and shoulders above all the other GC guys, including Nibali. Nibali could do well here again, especially if it rains; but yeah, it's difficult to say given how rollercoaster like his form and peaking seems nowdays.