2017 Strade Bianche, March 4th, 175 km WT

[Tonton]

Geniez to podium here

I hope so too. That would mean Pinot wins .

Rain in the forecast will make it even more entertaining. This race will only continue to grow in popularity: it's a great concept. Regardless of who wins, the only certainty is that the best/strongest rider will prevail.

 

[johnymax]

Geniez to podium here

I hope so too. That would mean Pinot wins .

Rain in the forecast will make it even more entertaining. This race will only continue to grow in popularity: it's a great concept. Regardless of who wins, the only certainty is that the best/strongest rider will prevail.

I don't think so. I think the majority see Sagan as the best/strongest rider in this type of races. Specially after his strong showing in his first two classics last week. While I think he has the best chance to win, it's certainly far from a sure thing. Sure there are other names like GVA, Stybar... who can still beat him in a direct clash. But I think there's also a good chance team tactics will prevail with some strong teams having multiple cards to play. I can easily see Vakoc or Kreuziger win for example while not being the strongest but taking advantage of the situation.

 

[Tonton]

Geniez to podium here

I hope so too. That would mean Pinot wins .

Rain in the forecast will make it even more entertaining. This race will only continue to grow in popularity: it's a great concept. Regardless of who wins, the only certainty is that the best/strongest rider will prevail.

I don't think so. I think the majority see Sagan as the best/strongest rider in this type of races. Specially after his strong showing in his first two classics last week. While I think he has the best chance to win, it's certainly far from a sure thing. Sure there are other names like GVA, Stybar... who can still beat him in a direct clash. But I think there's also a good chance team tactics will prevail with some strong teams having multiple cards to play. I can easily see Vakoc or Kreuziger win for example while not being the strongest but taking advantage of the situation.

I completely agree with your point: it's written Sagan all over. But who is going to chase the bold riders who go for broke? Chasing everything is not going to work. That could be Sagan's demise. You have to be smart too. There's no hanging on Cance's wheel this year.

Team tactics? I don't believe it. It's one of those races where teams get beat up. It's going to come down to a smart/bold move, guys looking at each other, who reacts, but in the end the winner deserves it. Not a lottery. The winner will deserve it.

 

[DFA123]

A lot of hype about Sagan again. Has it been forgotten that he cracks on the final climb (if not before) every single year? Why would that change this time?

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

A lot of hype about Sagan again. Has it been forgotten that he cracks on the final climb (if not before) every single year? Why would that change this time?

He was the strongest in 2013 but team tactics played against him.

 

[Breh]

This race has been great without rain. I'm fine with good weather tbh.

 

[Liiio]

My stars
*** Sagan, Van Avermaet, Vanmarcke
**Benoot, Wellens (+ ** in rain), Kwiatkowski, Stybar
*Felline, Valgren, Dumoulin

 

[RedheadDane]

Valgren isn't riding. He's doing Paris-Nice.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Re:

A lot of hype about Sagan again. Has it been forgotten that he cracks on the final climb (if not before) every single year? Why would that change this time?

He had no legs in 2014, 2015. Last year he was in a good shape but had worked too much before the final climb.

If they ride it hard on Saturday Sagan may just drop everyone on that climb with 12km to go. Right now he's on a different level.

 

[Eshnar]

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

A lot of hype about Sagan again. Has it been forgotten that he cracks on the final climb (if not before) every single year? Why would that change this time?

He had no legs in 2014, 2015. Last year he was in a good shape but had worked too much before the final climb.

If they ride it hard on Saturday Sagan may just drop everyone on that climb with 12km to go. Right now he's on a different level.

Canc and Brambilla clearly did more and finished in front of him.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

A lot of hype about Sagan again. Has it been forgotten that he cracks on the final climb (if not before) every single year? Why would that change this time?

He had no legs in 2014, 2015. Last year he was in a good shape but had worked too much before the final climb.

If they ride it hard on Saturday Sagan may just drop everyone on that climb with 12km to go. Right now he's on a different level.

Not sure he is on a different level on this kind of course. The climbs are way longer than the bergs of Belgium and in the past they take too much out of him to be competitive in the closing stages, especially since he gained weight in 2014. It's not so easy to just power away from the whole field on these kind of climbs, without blowing up shortly afterwards.

Also not sure he'll have the legs to go solo - and even if he does, there is usually a group of 3/4 not far behind who would work together to close him down. And if it comes down to the final climb, it's hard to see him challenging with GVA or Stybar based on previous years.

I think he's good for a top 5 finish, but just think the course with this particular finish makes it very complicated for him to actually win.

 

[spiritualride]

I think this is too hilly for Sagan. Maybe if the last 5km was flat, yeah he could win in a sprint of 5 riders. But he'll be worn out and dropped on that last hill if someone else hasn't already made the winning move. I see someone attacking 10-20km from the finish for a solo win here.... maybe Kwiat or Rosa. GVA and Stybar will be too conservative.... GVA Stybar Sagan will mark each other out.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I think this is too hilly for Sagan. Maybe if the last 5km was flat, yeah he could win in a sprint of 5 riders. But he'll be worn out and dropped on that last hill if someone else hasn't already made the winning move. I see someone attacking 10-20km from the finish for a solo win here.... maybe Kwiat or Rosa. GVA and Stybar will be too conservative.... GVA Stybar Sagan will mark each other out.

Sounds a good call, definitely a chance for a "lesser" favourite to go solo. Or, a slight variation would be if Quick Step have more than one option, Stybar could just sit on while GVA and Sagan squabble about splitting the work. I could see Vakoc, Brambilla - or maybe even Jungels or Trentin soloing to victory.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Sagan needs to go alone and I think he just might be able, but GVA and Stybar will mark him hard. They know he will look to animate the race as usual and they know they are better than him on the finish. As mentioned above, if Peter can't shake them, it could lead to rider getting back on and ultimately escape and win. It very well could be Rosa or Kwito.

I still go with Sagan.

 

[yaco]

My outsider is Primoz Roglic - He's a chance to make the final selection.

 

[SafeBet]

Chances of rain, but I wouldn't bet on it.
It's gonna be pretty windy nonetheless.

 

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

A lot of hype about Sagan again. Has it been forgotten that he cracks on the final climb (if not before) every single year? Why would that change this time?

He was the strongest in 2013 but team tactics played against him.

Or it could be also vice versa. As he had team mate in front, he didn't have to work in the group, so he was fresh, and then destroy everyone in the climb. Actually I think, Cancellara complained about this, that he had not cooperated. Also, sagans climbing form peaked on spring 2013. Remember https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuZ2im34UOk ? Then he gained weight.

 

[johnymax]

Re:

My outsider is Primoz Roglic - He's a chance to make the final selection.

I'd love to see that. I had mentioned before last year's edition that this race should suit him but then he was nowhere to be seen and finished outside the top50. That's why I'm sceptical about his chances this year. Although he has undoubtedly improved as a rider since then, Strade Bianche is such a specific race where you need the right combination of strength, tactical awareness, bike handling skills and positioning skills that I find it hard to believe he'll be factor. But the team has confidence in him and as I see he'll be their protected rider. Maybe he should go in a breakaway and try to do a Brambilla.

 

[Leffe_Bruin]

Sporza is not covering this race ??? That is a shame

 

[Breh]

Eurosport bought the exclusive broadcasting rights for every RCS race so no RCS races at all on Sporza.

Their contract expires in 2020 I believe so we'll have to put up with for a couple of years.

 

[Flamin]

And the commentator on Eurosport that will do these races is terrible. I'll probably start feeling more empathy towards those complaining about Kirby from now on.

 

[MotorRouleur]

Weather a non-factor. In fact, this year it may be perfect; a light shower just before start, which will keep the dust down, then 15 degrees with part sun & part cloud. Winds will be mostly from the south, so they'll face a bit of it on the early leg south, but will have tail or side wind on the way back to Siena.

http://www.meteo.it/meteo/toscana/

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Sagan needs to go alone and I think he just might be able, but GVA and Stybar will mark him hard. They know he will look to animate the race as usual and they know they are better than him on the finish. As mentioned above, if Peter can't shake them, it could lead to rider getting back on and ultimately escape and win. It very well could be Rosa or Kwito.

I still go with Sagan.

I think completely opposite than you. If I was Sagan, I would just follow wheels and cover attacks of major favorites (GVA, Stybar, Kwiat..) That way he would arrive fresher at the bottom of the last climb, and when he is relatively fresh, I can't see anybody beating him on that finish. Just look at 2013, Moser was at the front and he was just following in the chasing group, and then on the finishing climb he was class above everybody else. So I think the winning formula for him in this race, isn't attacking and going solo, or forcing a selection and pulling hard in the front group. No, I think the secret is in following moves and covering major attacks, in other words conserving energy for the finale

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs to go alone and I think he just might be able, but GVA and Stybar will mark him hard. They know he will look to animate the race as usual and they know they are better than him on the finish. As mentioned above, if Peter can't shake them, it could lead to rider getting back on and ultimately escape and win. It very well could be Rosa or Kwito.

I still go with Sagan.

I think completely opposite than you. If I was Sagan, I would just follow wheels and cover attacks of major favorites (GVA, Stybar, Kwiat..) That way he would arrive fresher at the bottom of the last climb, and when he is relatively fresh, I can't see anybody beating him on that finish. Just look at 2013, Moser was at the front and he was just following in the chasing group, and then on the finishing climb he was class above everybody else. So I think the winning formula for him in this race, isn't attacking and going solo, or forcing a selection and pulling hard in the front group. No, I think the secret is in following moves and covering major attacks, in other words conserving energy for the finale

Sagan was a much better climber back in 2013, he came 12th at Fleche. I don't see him coming close to that now. I'd back GvA to beat him in a flat out sprint up the last climb.