2017 Tirreno-Adriatico, March 8-14, WT

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I'm saying this for the second time. Tom Dumoulin is the main rival of quintana for il giro

Dumoulin is often compared to Wiggins, but while he still has to make a step in the high mountains, Dumoulin is a true dangerman in the hills and can take time and be super agressive there

Think this is key. He is a very good TTist and very good on hilly terrain. But he's still a long way off the elite in consecutive multi mountain stages. And it is the latter which win you and get you onto the podium in GTs - particularly the Giro.

He can take 10 seconds on a hilly stage, or 2 minutes on a TT. But, ultimately, there will be at least one mountain stage where he gives away 10+ minutes to Quintana and Nibali.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Top 10

Stage 2 Results

GBR  1  THOMAS, Geraint (SKY)                     5:51:44
NED  2  DUMOULIN, Tom (SUNWEB)                        + 9
SVK  3  SAGAN, Peter (BORA - HANSGROHE)           
BEL  4  VAN AVERMAET, Greg (BMC RACING)           
ITA  5  GAVAZZI, Francesco (ANDRONI GIOCATTOLI)   
POL  6  KWIATKOWSKI, Michal (SKY)                 
GBR  7  YATES, Adam (ORICA - SCOTT)               
AUS  8  DENNIS, Rohan (BMC RACING)                
COL  9  QUINTANA, Nairo (MOVISTAR)                
AUS  10 CLARKE, Simon (CANNONDALE DRAPAC)

General Classification after Stage 2

BEL  1  VAN AVERMAET, Greg (BMC RACING)        6:15:14
AUS  2  DENNIS, Rohan (BMC RACING)             
USA  3  VAN GARDEREN, Tejay (BMC RACING)       
ITA  4  CARUSO, Damiano (BMC RACING)           
NED  5  TERPSTRA, Niki (QUICK - STEP FLOORS)      + 16
LUX  6  JUNGELS, Bob (QUICK - STEP FLOORS)     
COL  7  QUINTANA, Nairo (MOVISTAR)                + 21
ITA  8  MOSER, Moreno (ASTANA)                 
SUI  9  REICHENBACH, Sébastien (FDJ)           
ESP  10 CASTROVIEJO, Jonathan (MOVISTAR)

 

[snccdcno]

Full results just up at PCS, neither NIbali or Pinot lost any time to the main group.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

I'm saying this for the second time. Tom Dumoulin is the main rival of quintana for il giro

Dumoulin is often compared to Wiggins, but while he still has to make a step in the high mountains, Dumoulin is a true dangerman in the hills and can take time and be super agressive there

Think this is key. He is a very good TTist and very good on hilly terrain. But he's still a long way off the elite in consecutive multi mountain stages. And it is the latter which win you and get you onto the podium in GTs - particularly the Giro.

He can take 10 seconds on a hilly stage, or 2 minutes on a TT. But, ultimately, there will be at least one mountain stage where he gives away 10+ minutes to Quintana and Nibali.

+10 nope. Look at the Vuelta where he almost won. On the worst day, which was the last mt stage, he lost what, 3m30? And that was the worst day.
So 10 minutes on 1 stage, nope, that would be a complete off-day (sick or no form)

 

[DNP-Old]

Bernal finished with the main group. All eyes on him this week!

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

I expect furious attacks from Rosa, Landa and Michal while Thomas will grasp for air behind!

You wanna repeat that?

:lol:

 

[Cance > TheRest]

That was mightily impressive from Thomas. A bit stupid by Jungels not to chase him - he should have realized that neither Caruso nor Castroviejo, for that matter, had any interest in chasing with team leaders behind.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Pinot desperately weak on hilly finales again.

This rider frustrates me so much.

Nevermind, he's in the bunch. Didn't see him in the top-10 while Reichenbach was in.

 

[DNP-Old]

Ewan is already amongst the abandoned. What happened?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I'm saying this for the second time. Tom Dumoulin is the main rival of quintana for il giro

Dumoulin is often compared to Wiggins, but while he still has to make a step in the high mountains, Dumoulin is a true dangerman in the hills and can take time and be super agressive there

Think this is key. He is a very good TTist and very good on hilly terrain. But he's still a long way off the elite in consecutive multi mountain stages. And it is the latter which win you and get you onto the podium in GTs - particularly the Giro.

He can take 10 seconds on a hilly stage, or 2 minutes on a TT. But, ultimately, there will be at least one mountain stage where he gives away 10+ minutes to Quintana and Nibali.

+10 nope. Look at the Vuelta where he almost won. On the worst day, which was the last mt stage, he lost what, 3m30? And that was the worst day.
So 10 minutes on 1 stage, nope, that would be a complete off-day (sick or no form)

Well, he lost 5 minutes on that stage to Quintana I think, and lost time to Aru on pretty much every other stage with a proper climb on it. And the final 'mountain' stage was one with no really big or tough climbs, in a race which didn't ever put two truly hard stages on consecutive days.

He will lose way more in the Giro - without doubt will finish more than 10 minutes down if Quintana finishes the race. I think he'd do better in the Tour. With Sky dominant, the climbs there are ridden at a tempo that would suit him and he could gain time on the TT - plus the high mountain stages are not as concentrated as in the Giro, so recovery is a bit easier. Still would have no chance of winning though obviously.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He didn't prepare specifically for that Vuelta, not in the sense that he didn't do any specific climb training. He was just fresh, and still a decent enough climber at that time to limit the losses fairly well (except the final mt stage).

He did very specific training this winter and more uphill, and he has lost weight. So you cannot compare Dumoulin then to Dumoulin now. The answer is you and I simply do not know how Dumoulin will do in the mountains this time around, because it is not the same Dumoulin. You can't just copy/paste results from the past and think the same will happen over and over again. Not with this background info in mind. We have to wait and see.
From what he showed in for instance Arcalis last year and Dubai this spring, it looks promising.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I don't believe in Dumoulin either for the Giro in particular, but its great to have him in a such a race from a viewer's perspective as he is so versatile and isn't afraid to attack (albeit its often too late). He is a big talent, but I think he will end up between two chairs.

An easier and conservatively ridden Vuelta would be better or a Sky dominated climbing-at-threshold TdF than the Giro. And on top of that, he (and many others) picked the worst possible time to focus on the Giro as basically everyone who realistically can't win TdF will try to win in Italy. And then on top of that, Nairo shows up. Good luck!

 

[yaco]

Re:

Ewan is already amongst the abandoned. What happened?

Crashed on a descent and injured his shoulder - I believe it's the same one he injured at Abu Dhabi - Shortly before his lead out man Kluge withdrew with illness - At least Orica can focus on GC.

 

[Poursuivant]

Re:

I don't believe in Dumoulin either for the Giro in particular, but its great to have him in a such a race from a viewer's perspective as he is so versatile and isn't afraid to attack (albeit its often too late). He is a big talent, but I think he will end up between two chairs.

An easier and conservatively ridden Vuelta would be better or a Sky dominated climbing-at-threshold TdF than the Giro. And on top of that, he (and many others) picked the worst possible time to focus on the Giro as basically everyone who realistically can't win TdF will try to win in Italy. And then on top of that, Nairo shows up. Good luck!

He did choose the worst year with regard to competitors, but he will also put a lot of time into them all on the TT's.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

He didn't prepare specifically for that Vuelta, not in the sense that he didn't do any specific climb training. He was just fresh, and still a decent enough climber at that time to limit the losses fairly well (except the final mt stage).

He did very specific training this winter and more uphill, and he has lost weight. So you cannot compare Dumoulin then to Dumoulin now. The answer is you and I simply do not know how Dumoulin will do in the mountains this time around, because it is not the same Dumoulin. You can't just copy/paste results from the past and think the same will happen over and over again. Not with this background info in mind. We have to wait and see.
From what he showed in for instance Arcalis last year and Dubai this spring, it looks promising.

It may be a different Dumoulin, but until he shows signs that he has improved, I think it's more than fair to assume he is still well below the level of elite climbers in a GT. Arcalis and Abu Dhabi show us nothing really - for different reasons, neither stages are anything like competing for the overall GC in a Giro, which has nine proper mountain stages and another nine hilly stages.

Dumoulin can do all the specific winter training and losing weight that he wants; but he's starting from a position so far behind the GT climbing level of Quintana and Nibali that it's inconceivable to me that he'll come anywhere close in May.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I don't believe in Dumoulin either for the Giro in particular, but its great to have him in a such a race from a viewer's perspective as he is so versatile and isn't afraid to attack (albeit its often too late). He is a big talent, but I think he will end up between two chairs.

An easier and conservatively ridden Vuelta would be better or a Sky dominated climbing-at-threshold TdF than the Giro. And on top of that, he (and many others) picked the worst possible time to focus on the Giro as basically everyone who realistically can't win TdF will try to win in Italy. And then on top of that, Nairo shows up. Good luck!

Yep, very true. Vuelta looks the best race for him, because of the lack of high mountain stages - particularly on consecutive days. TdF as well, because the pace is often high, but a lot more controlled and so 'non-climbers' can find it a bit easier. I guess the good thing from his perspective for the Giro is that the flat TT is the final stage. He'll probably be well out of GC contention a few days before, and so can take it relatively easy and recover a bit on the final few mountain stages - ready to get a nice stage win in Milan.

 

[Samamba]

Re: Re:

Epic. TA over before any individual action

Cant wait for Catalynya

Indeed. Many ridera are out of contention even before the hard stages. 22 km TTT is way too much for one week of racing. 10 km would have been enough
Then I realize Catalunya has 40 km of TT which is even worse with just La Molina and and not even the full Mont Caro to change the GC

I just realized that there is indeed a 40k TTT in Catalunya. Who decides stuff like that? Jezus

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

He didn't prepare specifically for that Vuelta, not in the sense that he didn't do any specific climb training. He was just fresh, and still a decent enough climber at that time to limit the losses fairly well (except the final mt stage).

He did very specific training this winter and more uphill, and he has lost weight. So you cannot compare Dumoulin then to Dumoulin now. The answer is you and I simply do not know how Dumoulin will do in the mountains this time around, because it is not the same Dumoulin. You can't just copy/paste results from the past and think the same will happen over and over again. Not with this background info in mind. We have to wait and see.
From what he showed in for instance Arcalis last year and Dubai this spring, it looks promising.

It may be a different Dumoulin, but until he shows signs that he has improved, I think it's more than fair to assume he is still well below the level of elite climbers in a GT. Arcalis and Abu Dhabi show us nothing really - for different reasons, neither stages are anything like competing for the overall GC in a Giro, which has nine proper mountain stages and another nine hilly stages.

Dumoulin can do all the specific winter training and losing weight that he wants; but he's starting from a position so far behind the GT climbing level of Quintana and Nibali that it's inconceivable to me that he'll come anywhere close in May.

Ah, that's where the difference in opinion comes from.
You are talking about winning. I am not. I'm not comparing Dumoulin to the Quintana's of this world. Rather that of the large field of people just below the top.

 

[Brullnux]

Dumoulin will probably top ten but he'll lose quite a bit to the pure climbers in the really hard mountains, although there is only really one stage like that.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Ewan abandoned, Cav is sick, tomorrow is Gaviria's to lose I think. Showed decent form today.

 

[Arked]

Re:

Dumoulin will probably top ten but he'll lose quite a bit to the pure climbers in the really hard mountains, although there is only really one stage like that.

Only one mountain stage might be not enough for 2015 version of Dumoulin to lose any significant time. We will see where he's at right now.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

He didn't prepare specifically for that Vuelta, not in the sense that he didn't do any specific climb training. He was just fresh, and still a decent enough climber at that time to limit the losses fairly well (except the final mt stage).

He did very specific training this winter and more uphill, and he has lost weight. So you cannot compare Dumoulin then to Dumoulin now. The answer is you and I simply do not know how Dumoulin will do in the mountains this time around, because it is not the same Dumoulin. You can't just copy/paste results from the past and think the same will happen over and over again. Not with this background info in mind. We have to wait and see.
From what he showed in for instance Arcalis last year and Dubai this spring, it looks promising.

It may be a different Dumoulin, but until he shows signs that he has improved, I think it's more than fair to assume he is still well below the level of elite climbers in a GT. Arcalis and Abu Dhabi show us nothing really - for different reasons, neither stages are anything like competing for the overall GC in a Giro, which has nine proper mountain stages and another nine hilly stages.

Dumoulin can do all the specific winter training and losing weight that he wants; but he's starting from a position so far behind the GT climbing level of Quintana and Nibali that it's inconceivable to me that he'll come anywhere close in May.

Ah, that's where the difference in opinion comes from.
You are talking about winning. I am not. I'm not comparing Dumoulin to the Quintana's of this world. Rather that of the large field of people just below the top.

Ah right, that's fair enough then. I guess that band of potential top 5's behind Quintana/Nibali is quite wide for the Giro - probably led by Yates/Aru, with Kruijswijk/Mollema/Landa/Zakarin/Pinot/Konig somewhere in the middle and ending somewhere with the likes of Thomas/Rolland/Costa. Will certainly be interesting to see where Dumoulin can end up amongst that lot.

 

[spiritualride]

Re: Re:

Kirby: "Not a threat overall. But why not put something in the bank as far as your confidence is concerned" --- referring to Dumoulin. He could easily top 5 on GC... only 49 seconds back after today.

I'm saying this for the second time. Tom Dumoulin is the main rival of quintana for il giro

Dumoulin is often compared to Wiggins, but while he still has to make a step in the high mountains, Dumoulin is a true dangerman in the hills and can take time and be super agressive there

Think this is key. He is a very good TTist and very good on hilly terrain. But he's still a long way off the elite in consecutive multi mountain stages. And it is the latter which win you and get you onto the podium in GTs - particularly the Giro.

He can take 10 seconds on a hilly stage, or 2 minutes on a TT. But, ultimately, there will be at least one mountain stage where he gives away 10+ minutes to Quintana and Nibali.

Who do you consider to be the elite? He's matched and also beaten 'the elite' in MTFs in grand tours already. If he is a long way off, how many riders are better?

 

[Red Rick]

Tom Dumoulin peaking for a GT is an unkown force. But what you see in other races is that he reaches a climbing level where's the competition is very dense and margins are very small. Small imporvements in level can yield large improvements in results. Losing 10 minutes isn't something you can garuantee. The only time he lost such an amount of time it was a drop or not drop situation where he'd always lose huge time if he didn't come back.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I'm saying this for the second time. Tom Dumoulin is the main rival of quintana for il giro

Dumoulin is often compared to Wiggins, but while he still has to make a step in the high mountains, Dumoulin is a true dangerman in the hills and can take time and be super agressive there

Think this is key. He is a very good TTist and very good on hilly terrain. But he's still a long way off the elite in consecutive multi mountain stages. And it is the latter which win you and get you onto the podium in GTs - particularly the Giro.

He can take 10 seconds on a hilly stage, or 2 minutes on a TT. But, ultimately, there will be at least one mountain stage where he gives away 10+ minutes to Quintana and Nibali.

Who do you consider to be the elite? He's matched and also beaten 'the elite' in MTFs in grand tours already. If he is a long way off, how many riders are better?

I think the very elite are the three guys who won GTs last year - Froome, Quintana and Nibali. Probably still Contador as well. I don't see Dumoulin as being anywhere near those guys in a GT. Then there is the second tier made I guess of riders like Chaves, Aru, Pinot, Landa, Bardet, Valverde, Porte, possibly Kruijswijk - these guys are much more inconsistent than the 'big four', but on their day - and with a weakish field - have the potential to challenge for and possibly win a GT. Then there are the other top 10 filler like Mollema, Yates, Uran, Costa, Van Garderen (if he still has it), Martin.... guys who will never win a GT, but can usually limit their losses to one
bad day and make the top 10 - this is where I think Dumoulin can make it.

His only realr MTF win in a GT was on Arcalis, when he won from the break after basically taking a rest day on the two previous mountain stages - it's just not comparable to fighting mano-a-mano at the sharp end of a GC battle.