2017 Tirreno-Adriatico, March 8-14, WT

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think the MSR winner will come from Paris-Nice like usual. The sprinters there are going to have amazing racing sharpness after eight days of battling echelons, long range attacks, breakaways. Not sure Tirreno is going to be as good, plus it offers a few days less recovery.

Hopefully one of Colbrelli, Degenkolb, Matthews, Greipel, Swift or Groenewegen - the guys who actually rode the last two stages and repected the race - instead of throwing in the towel (*cough* Kristoff, Demare, Bouhanni, Kittel).

The past 20 years or so only 5 times the winner came from PN.

Well 10-20 years ago is pretty irrelevant really for the current peloton and the current parcours for each race.

Five of the last six winners of MSR were at Paris-Nice - that's the relevant stat. Nowdays it seems to be the ideal preparation race - this year I imagine more so than ever given the way it was raced.

 

[Brullnux]

I think that's more to do with the riders than the race

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I think that's more to do with the riders than the race

I disagree, I think P-N has the shorter, punchier stages nowdays which give real race sharpness. Tirreno not so much; a lot of them tend to be quite long slogs with a lot of lulls in action. Plus the extra days off may have a benefit in terms of tapering nicely for the event.

Anyway,I guess it doesn't really matter which is the cause and which is the effect. The signs point to that the winner recently comes from Paris-Nice - either because the best riders choose that race or because it's better prep. I'd be surprised if that changed this year.

 

[screaming fist]

It seems to be time for a MSR-Thread

 

[Laplaz]

2015 Quintana lost 1:01 on Dennis in 13km... but for tomorrow 1:06 should be enough.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He'll be fine. TBH I don't think much will change

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Good win for Gaviria. However, i doubt he can follow Sagan when he unleashes himself on Poggio.

With Bennett behind, I think that he might go all out on Poggio compared to last years, but we will see that in a week.

Since Alaphilippe is set to ride MSR I think he will be the one to follow those kind of attacks.

Good point. Etixx will field a stupidly strong team. Who do you say the 8 are?

Except those two I think Trentin, Boonen and Richeze are a given. But other than that it's pretty open. They have a lot of potential riders they could take. Makes it harder to choose.

Gilbert should go as well. I don't think I've seen him this strong in March post-2011. Perfect ally with Wellens on Cipressa, though he did wait for Poggio in 2014 and 2015 for some reason.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

It seems to be time for a MSR-Thread

Dooooooo iiiiiiiiiit!

 

[huangho]

Re:

2015 Quintana lost 1:01 on Dennis in 13km... but for tomorrow 1:06 should be enough.

That was 2015, NQ has improved a lot in TT since then.

TBH I don't see him losing more than 40 secs to Dennis in 10k

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Hopefully one of Colbrelli, Degenkolb, Matthews, Greipel, Swift or Groenewegen - the guys who actually rode the last two stages and repected the race - instead of throwing in the towel (*cough* Kristoff, Demare, Bouhanni, Kittel).

Cort.

Hey! I can dream!




(Not very likely, I know...)

Hmm, don't let the danish press fool ya, he ain't winning bunch sprints against this calibre of guys and probably never will. And thats totally fine, but its annoying the crap out of me to listen to guys like Rolf Sorensen hype him.

 

[RedheadDane]

I know he isn't gonna win. Mainly because I think he'll be working for Gerrans.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I know he isn't gonna win. Mainly because I think he'll be working for Gerrans.

I think he is a better bet than Gerrans and could definitely top-10 tho, I just have a very, very hard time dealing with biased and patriotic commentators and needed to let that one go. Rolf Sorensen in particular is very good at letting the emotions run wild and get anything else than factual and realistic. I very much respected how he cried when Michael Rasmussen won in Tignes, that was epic, so was Col d' Aubisque (always will remember watching that one with a Dutch guy by a poolside), but I'd like TV2's already good coverage so much better if they had a much more broad focus and didn't need to hype every Dane who can or did do reasonable well. I guess thats normal and I suspect its much worse in other countries tho.

Thats why I absolutely love listening to Thomas Bay and Brian Holm, they are awesome.

 

[Netserk]

I don't think the commentary during the races are that bad when it comes to Danes, especially not when the race is on. I'm quite happy with Rolf and Ritter, especially compared to when I watch a British stream or remember Thomas Kristensen.

 

[RedheadDane]

I like the Bay-Holm pairing. Just a shame Holm's got that little side job as well.
Not so sure about the guy who did T-A with Wenzel, it might just be because I'm not so used to him, but he seems like the guy they bring in when the "main guys" aren't available.

And I feel like we're going way off course.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

I like the Bay-Holm pairing. Just a shame Holm's got that little side job as well.
Not so sure about the guy who did T-A with Wenzel, it might just be because I'm not so used to him, but he seems like the guy they bring in when the "main guys" aren't available.

And I feel like we're going way off course.

No, he is no good. But way better than Wenzel. How they can keep him as an expert is beyond me. He just rambles on completely cluelessly, race after race. Leif Mortensen would be better, which says quite a lot.

And perhaps this has veered a little off course but at least we are back to the guys commenting Tirreno.

 

[Tonton]

Straightforward, flat ITT, 10 km. First stage of the '15 TdF, Dennis put 40" on Pinot in 12 km. I know that this came up in other posts, Quintana losing 1+ minute. Since then, Quintana has improved. Pinot has improved, beating Froome and Dumoulin in '16 Romandie (but it wasn't flat), becoming National ITT Champion. Recently at La Ruta, although he went with too small a gear, he still lost the ITT to Contador and Valverde, who are nothing compared to Dennis in this exercise.

Quintana has too big of a lead, but the fight for podium spots is wide open. Starting behind your foes isn't that big of an advantage in a short ITT. Dennis may have spent a ton of energy fighting for his GC placing.

Among the GC leaders...

Quintana will lose 30 seconds. And win TA.
Pinot and Dennis is the story. Pinot 30%- Dennis 70%. But I still believe that Tibopino can regroup better, recuperate better, he's got his legs back. If he's on, he can match Dennis.

Roglic will keep his spot, I'm 85% sure.

Nice race, like PN, although Contador's charge gives PN the edge for entertainment. But wrt the field, TA is an edge. Tomorrow could be a thriller: a puncture, a fall, a a miscalculation, or an epic ride can turn this thing into a memorable finish. Something will happen...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Straightforward, flat ITT, 10 km. First stage of the '15 TdF, Dennis put 40" on Pinot in 12 km. I know that this came up in other posts, Quintana losing 1+ minute. Since then, Quintana has improved. Pinot has improved, beating Froome and Dumoulin in '16 Romandie (but it wasn't flat), becoming National ITT Champion. Recently at La Ruta, although he went with too small a gear, he still lost the ITT to Contador and Valverde, who are nothing compared to Dennis in this exercise.

Quintana has too big of a lead, but the fight for podium spots is wide open. Starting behind your foes isn't that big of an advantage in a short ITT. Dennis may have spent a ton of energy fighting for his GC placing.

Among the GC leaders...

Quintana will lose 30 seconds. And win TA.
Pinot and Dennis is the story. Pinot 30%- Dennis 70%. But I still believe that Tibopino can regroup better, recuperate better, he's got his legs back. If he's on, he can match Dennis.

Roglic will keep his spot, I'm 85% sure.

Nice race, like PN, although Contador's charge gives PN the edge for entertainment. But wrt the field, TA is an edge. Tomorrow could be a thriller: a puncture, a fall, a a miscalculation, or an epic ride can turn this thing into a memorable finish. Something will happen...

I think that Roglic will lose 2, perhaps 3, places.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

or Jungels)
Good point. Etixx will field a stupidly strong team. Who do you say the 8 are?

Locks: Stybar, Boonen, Gaviria, Alaphillipe.
Always there: Vermote, Trentin
Best guess: Keisse (or Jungels), Richeze (or Sabatini)

One of the Ardennes trio (Vakoc, Martin, PhilGil) might take Trentin's place. Otherwise today was a trial baloon tactically. Sub in Ala for Terpstra and Stybar for Trentin. Everyone else working for Gaviria unless Boonen calls an audible.

Someone from Tirreno to win MSR is my guess.

The two partial lists I've seen both have Gaviria, Trentin, Kittel, Martinelli, and Alaphilippe, and one also lists Boonen. No idea how accurate they are.

I know he isn't gonna win. Mainly because I think he'll be working for Gerrans.

Or Ewan maybe? Both lists also include him.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I like the Bay-Holm pairing. Just a shame Holm's got that little side job as well.
Not so sure about the guy who did T-A with Wenzel, it might just be because I'm not so used to him, but he seems like the guy they bring in when the "main guys" aren't available.

And I feel like we're going way off course.

No, he is no good. But way better than Wenzel. How they can keep him as an expert is beyond me. He just rambles on completely cluelessly, race after race. Leif Mortensen would be better, which says quite a lot.

And perhaps this has veered a little off course but at least we are back to the guys commenting Tirreno.

Yes Wenzel is horrible, fortunately haven't got to watch T-A much. Rambles as much as Kirby, but Kirby is entertaining, Wenzel is just bad.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

I like the Bay-Holm pairing. Just a shame Holm's got that little side job as well.
Not so sure about the guy who did T-A with Wenzel, it might just be because I'm not so used to him, but he seems like the guy they bring in when the "main guys" aren't available.

And I feel like we're going way off course.

Agreed.

 

[RedheadDane]

Well, it seems we're a pretty big bunch of Danish people in this thread.
Right... T-A ITT.

It's gonna be a fun fight for the lower podium spots, what with those fighting for them all being decent TTers, who could potentially win the thing.
Who would've thought we'd include Pinot as a decent TTer just a few years ago?

Pinot and Dennis is the story. Pinot 30%- Dennis 70%. But I still believe that Tibopino can regroup better, recuperate better, he's got his legs back. If he's on, he can match Dennis.

He hardly needs to regroup today. Bit hard to regroup with yourself anyway.

 

[Tarnum]

Straightforward, flat ITT, 10 km. First stage of the '15 TdF, Dennis put 40" on Pinot in 12 km. I know that this came up in other posts, Quintana losing 1+ minute. Since then, Quintana has improved. Pinot has improved, beating Froome and Dumoulin in '16 Romandie (but it wasn't flat), becoming National ITT Champion. Recently at La Ruta, although he went with too small a gear, he still lost the ITT to Contador and Valverde, who are nothing compared to Dennis in this exercise.

Quintana has too big of a lead, but the fight for podium spots is wide open. Starting behind your foes isn't that big of an advantage in a short ITT. Dennis may have spent a ton of energy fighting for his GC placing.

Among the GC leaders...

Quintana will lose 30 seconds. And win TA.
Pinot and Dennis is the story. Pinot 30%- Dennis 70%. But I still believe that Tibopino can regroup better, recuperate better, he's got his legs back. If he's on, he can match Dennis.

Roglic will keep his spot, I'm 85% sure.

Nice race, like PN, although Contador's charge gives PN the edge for entertainment. But wrt the field, TA is an edge. Tomorrow could be a thriller: a puncture, a fall, a a miscalculation, or an epic ride can turn this thing into a memorable finish. Something will happen...

I think that Roglic will lose 2, perhaps 3, places.

Don't forget stage 1 of the 2016 Giro.

 

[tobydawq]

Straightforward, flat ITT, 10 km. First stage of the '15 TdF, Dennis put 40" on Pinot in 12 km. I know that this came up in other posts, Quintana losing 1+ minute. Since then, Quintana has improved. Pinot has improved, beating Froome and Dumoulin in '16 Romandie (but it wasn't flat), becoming National ITT Champion. Recently at La Ruta, although he went with too small a gear, he still lost the ITT to Contador and Valverde, who are nothing compared to Dennis in this exercise.

Quintana has too big of a lead, but the fight for podium spots is wide open. Starting behind your foes isn't that big of an advantage in a short ITT. Dennis may have spent a ton of energy fighting for his GC placing.

Among the GC leaders...

Quintana will lose 30 seconds. And win TA.
Pinot and Dennis is the story. Pinot 30%- Dennis 70%. But I still believe that Tibopino can regroup better, recuperate better, he's got his legs back. If he's on, he can match Dennis.

Roglic will keep his spot, I'm 85% sure.

Nice race, like PN, although Contador's charge gives PN the edge for entertainment. But wrt the field, TA is an edge. Tomorrow could be a thriller: a puncture, a fall, a a miscalculation, or an epic ride can turn this thing into a memorable finish. Something will happen...

I think that Roglic will lose 2, perhaps 3, places.

Don't forget stage 1 of the 2016 Giro.

Nor the time trial in Algarve where he lost just five seconds to Castroviejo and one to Tony Martin. And that was flat as well (and he benefited a bit from the pace of a motorbike).

But it's quite remarkable to have so many of the world's very best time trialists fighting for the top GC placings. I would consider all of Dennis, Dumoulin and Castroviejo to be in the top five in the discipline, and Roglic may be in the outer fringes of top 10-15. And Pinot and Thomas certainly aren't bad either.

I think the only changes in the top ten will be that Dennis might just overtake Pinot for second, Castroviejo will pass Urán (and maybe also Thomas). Roglic will maybe lose fourth to Dumoulin but I'm not too sure. Otherwise, I don't see any changes happening - they are all to close to each other level-wise.

 

[Anderis]

I fear that Uran will ride a Romanie 2016-like TT and will end up outside the top10 overall.

 

[barmaher]

A few years ago, Uran would have been hoping to improve his GC placing on the last day of T-A.

It seems incredible that he won an ITT in the Giro less than three years ago, albeit a hilly one.