2018 Paris - Roubaix

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Who will win Paris - Roubaix?

  • Peter Sagan

    Votes: 24 16.1%
  • Greg Van Avermaet

    Votes: 6 4.0%
  • Philippe Gilbert

    Votes: 31 20.8%
  • Jasper Stuyven

    Votes: 3 2.0%
  • Oliver Naesen

    Votes: 4 2.7%
  • Sep Vanmarcke

    Votes: 12 8.1%
  • Niki Terpstra

    Votes: 24 16.1%
  • Zdenek Stybar

    Votes: 14 9.4%
  • Wout Van Aert

    Votes: 5 3.4%
  • Other

    Votes: 26 17.4%

  • Total voters
    149
  • Poll closed .
Apr 1, 2013
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LaFlorecita said:
A thought:
At some point in the race, I believe Sagan had (according to GPS) ~55 seconds on G1 and ~1:15 on G2. G2 contained 3 Quick Step riders (Stybar, Gilbert, Lampaert) but as far as I recall they were doing no work, I think it was Vandenbergh who was working in this group. Shouldn't Quick Step have started working at this point?
I guess QS underestimated Wallays and especially Dillier ... without their help I don't believe Sagan would have made it (maybe he would, but 50+km is a disctance, only the very best power riders like former Cancellara or last years Gilbert can endure against a group of halfway organized chasers) .... as Terpstra looked clearly the strongest in the second group (he was pulling the most and still dropped everyone else (from that group) in the final kilometers), I don't think QS did a mistake (on hindsight it's always a bit different, as it was with Terpstra's attack in RvV) ...

btw Cudos to Terpstra: last year (especially after Gent-Wevelgem) he was on my short 'black-list' of riders, but definitely got deleted there this year ...
 
After his win in the last Route du Sud i've became quite fond of Dillier. That's why i just couldn't stand the last 10km and i've changed the channels. No hate for Sagan, but when Dillier has a slim chance of winning freaking Paris-Roubaix then of course i will be cheering him to the point of a near heart attack. Sadly, my nerves are just too weak. Sad to not watch the race in full but i hope that soon it will be posted to youtube or other video site. Guess i'll now try to finish my TdP before Amstel.
 
Red Rick said:
LaFlorecita said:
A thought:
At some point in the race, I believe Sagan had (according to GPS) ~55 seconds on G1 and ~1:15 on G2. G2 contained 3 Quick Step riders (Stybar, Gilbert, Lampaert) but as far as I recall they were doing no work, I think it was Vandenbergh who was working in this group. Shouldn't Quick Step have started working at this point? I understand that they wouldn't want to bring that many riders back to the Terpstra group, but with the Terpstra group failing to make up time on Sagan, you'd think it would have been the better choice. With 4 riders in a ~30 rider group and Terpstra probably the strongest besides Sagan, they would have had a great chance to win, as long as they would have caught Sagan.
Yes, I agree. I think the problem is that at this point Gilbert and Stybar were already wasted, and Lampaert wasn't strong enough to be much use at that point. They had their best rider in front at that point.

They made the mistake of getting caught out by GvA's attack. That shouldn't have happened. That's why they couldn't react to Sagan. If one of them joins that move, I think they don't get away, and if they do, Sagan still wins vs Lampaert, Stybar or Gilbert.

But it was a very good tactics from Sagan.

The cobbles are overestimated in tactical importance in Roubaix. The strong are separated from the weak there, but the winning move is made more often on the normal roads. It's happened a lot of times now that a chasing group waits for Carrefour to go all in on the chase and fails.
But they should've hit the front as soon as possible. They were 4 in the group and Sagan was on the run and escaping more and more. No matter how spent they were, at least one of them should've been on the front.
The truth is they're not much of a defensive team in those finales, cause they lack real workers. Even Lampaert would hesitate nowadays to hit the front and work for his teammates, let alone Gilbert and Stybar. They lacked clear hierarchy, and lacked strict orders from the DS.
Gilbert and Stybar gladly acts like "stoppers" in the group when their teammate is up the road, cause they know they would not spend much energy and if somehow their mate is being caught they have very good chances for the win in that situation, and if he's not caught, they could sprint for podium or mark a late attack, which happened that way couple of times (Gilbert 2nd and 3rd at E3 and Ronde). But if they work on the front, they know they're "dead", there's no chance for them anymore in that race.

That was the main problem at QS in yesterday's race, I think. When they are on the offensive, they're deadly, but on the defensive not so much.
 
Blanco said:
Red Rick said:
LaFlorecita said:
A thought:
At some point in the race, I believe Sagan had (according to GPS) ~55 seconds on G1 and ~1:15 on G2. G2 contained 3 Quick Step riders (Stybar, Gilbert, Lampaert) but as far as I recall they were doing no work, I think it was Vandenbergh who was working in this group. Shouldn't Quick Step have started working at this point? I understand that they wouldn't want to bring that many riders back to the Terpstra group, but with the Terpstra group failing to make up time on Sagan, you'd think it would have been the better choice. With 4 riders in a ~30 rider group and Terpstra probably the strongest besides Sagan, they would have had a great chance to win, as long as they would have caught Sagan.
Yes, I agree. I think the problem is that at this point Gilbert and Stybar were already wasted, and Lampaert wasn't strong enough to be much use at that point. They had their best rider in front at that point.

They made the mistake of getting caught out by GvA's attack. That shouldn't have happened. That's why they couldn't react to Sagan. If one of them joins that move, I think they don't get away, and if they do, Sagan still wins vs Lampaert, Stybar or Gilbert.

But it was a very good tactics from Sagan.

The cobbles are overestimated in tactical importance in Roubaix. The strong are separated from the weak there, but the winning move is made more often on the normal roads. It's happened a lot of times now that a chasing group waits for Carrefour to go all in on the chase and fails.
But they should've hit the front as soon as possible. They were 4 in the group and Sagan was on the run and escaping more and more. No matter how spent they were, at least one of them should've been on the front.
The truth is they're not much of a defensive team in those finales, cause they lack real workers. Even Lampaert would hesitate nowadays to hit the front and work for his teammates, let alone Gilbert and Stybar. They lacked clear hierarchy, and lacked strict orders from the DS.
Gilbert and Stybar gladly acts like "stoppers" in the group when their teammate is up the road, cause they know they would not spend much energy and if somehow their mate is being caught they have very good chances for the win in that situation, and if he's not caught, they could sprint for podium or mark a late attack, which happened that way couple of times (Gilbert 2nd and 3rd at E3 and Ronde). But if they work on the front, they know they're "dead", there's no chance for them anymore in that race.

That was the main problem at QS in yesterday's race, I think. When they are on the offensive, they're deadly, but on the defensive not so much.
good point
 
How do we actually rate this race? It was obviously a superb race with action very far out, but given we are rating it relative to other Roubaixs, I think its a pretty mediocre edition since the Belgians couldn't get organised for some reason and the only thing that could upset Sagan was a mechanical. Maybe a bit above, I'd say 6/10.
 
Mar 26, 2017
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I'd say:
- Winning move 9 of 10. Long distance, risky, perfectly timed, perfectly executed (staying with day break),...
- Race itself 6 of 10 as the chasers did not manage to bring much suspense. There was more anxiety about Sagan having mechanical than Sagan being caught.
 
Re:

d-s3 said:
I'd say:
- Winning move 9 of 10. Long distance, risky, perfectly timed, perfectly executed (staying with day break),...
- Race itself 6 of 10 as the chasers did not manage to bring much suspense. There was more anxiety about Sagan having mechanical than Sagan being caught.
Why not give Sagan 10 of 10 for that winning move? QS finally showed a weakness and Sagan jumped all over it. That was like watching a Rambo movie, with all the clever naysayers refusing to suspend disbelief: they're like, why work with Sagan for a podium spot? Because: why wait for Terpstra for nothing?

Babylon has fallen! All glorious is the Queen! :lol:
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
How do we actually rate this race? It was obviously a superb race with action very far out, but given we are rating it relative to other Roubaixs, I think its a pretty mediocre edition since the Belgians couldn't get organised for some reason and the only thing that could upset Sagan was a mechanical. Maybe a bit above, I'd say 6/10.
I don't know if agree with you. If you are not Sagan fan you will probably rate it low.

But in my opinion it was an excellent edition. The way every thing fell into place for the win. One by one watching the Quick Steppers disintegrate. Not only they were fighting against Sagan but against each other for a potential win that they thought it was theirs, "Priceless".
 
I thought it was a good race. It would have been a lot more interesting if the chasers got to within 20 seconds and started faffing about, like they did in E3. But I was fairly glued to the TV for the final 60km, which is more than I can say about some recent monuments. On the other hand, there was no real moment that I will remember from the race. Even the decisive move from Sagan 55km from home looked nearly accidental.

7/10
 
Re: Re:

phanatic said:
d-s3 said:
I'd say:
- Winning move 9 of 10. Long distance, risky, perfectly timed, perfectly executed (staying with day break),...
- Race itself 6 of 10 as the chasers did not manage to bring much suspense. There was more anxiety about Sagan having mechanical than Sagan being caught.
Why not give Sagan 10 of 10 for that winning move? QS finally showed a weakness and Sagan jumped all over it. That was like watching a Rambo movie, with all the clever naysayers refusing to suspend disbelief: they're like, why work with Sagan for a podium spot? Because: why wait for Terpstra for nothing?

Babylon has fallen! All glorious is the Queen! :lol:
Because Diller had a lot to do with the success of the winning move. Switch Diller with any sacrificial breakaway rider from the peloton and the race gets much closer.
 
Re:

GraftPunk said:
A really interesting article that you guys might enjoy (I found it a fascinating):http://www.velonews.com/2018/04/news/roubaixs-showers-a-dying-part-of-cycling-lore_462851
Thanks! Excellent article. I would think that after such a grueling race one would look forward to a hot a shower especially with the long history of Roubaix's showers. I know after a long ride a hot shower/bath is what I look forward to the most, with stuffing my face with food and drink running a close second.
 
Feb 21, 2017
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Re: Re:

Angliru said:
GraftPunk said:
A really interesting article that you guys might enjoy (I found it a fascinating):http://www.velonews.com/2018/04/news/roubaixs-showers-a-dying-part-of-cycling-lore_462851
Thanks! Excellent article. I would think that after such a grueling race one would look forward to a hot a shower especially with the long history of Roubaix's showers. I know after a long ride a hot shower/bath is what I look forward to the most, with stuffing my face with food and drink running a close second.
For sure! In hindsight I kind of face-palmed about not having heard of the showers (and name plaques) before. Their presence definitely makes sense though.
 
Feb 21, 2017
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Re:

RedheadDane said:
So, Siskevicius had some challenges making it to the finish! Way out of time limit.
Pretty awesome that he carried on and completed it. I'm sure his fans (and sponsors) appreciate the joy that that this sort of story brings.
 
Oct 2, 2017
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Re: Re:

More Strides than Rides said:
phanatic said:
d-s3 said:
I'd say:
- Winning move 9 of 10. Long distance, risky, perfectly timed, perfectly executed (staying with day break),...
- Race itself 6 of 10 as the chasers did not manage to bring much suspense. There was more anxiety about Sagan having mechanical than Sagan being caught.
Why not give Sagan 10 of 10 for that winning move? QS finally showed a weakness and Sagan jumped all over it. That was like watching a Rambo movie, with all the clever naysayers refusing to suspend disbelief: they're like, why work with Sagan for a podium spot? Because: why wait for Terpstra for nothing?

Babylon has fallen! All glorious is the Queen! :lol:
Because Diller had a lot to do with the success of the winning move. Switch Diller with any sacrificial breakaway rider from the peloton and the race gets much closer.
True, nevertheless Sagan pulled at least two times more distance wise in the last 40km than any chaser behind him. That is what made the race good. Was he going to be caught or not...?
 
Re: Re:

Angliru said:
GraftPunk said:
A really interesting article that you guys might enjoy (I found it a fascinating):http://www.velonews.com/2018/04/news/roubaixs-showers-a-dying-part-of-cycling-lore_462851
Thanks! Excellent article. I would think that after such a grueling race one would look forward to a hot a shower especially with the long history of Roubaix's showers. I know after a long ride a hot shower/bath is what I look forward to the most, with stuffing my face with food and drink running a close second.
The article does mention that the trend now is for the riders to shower on their team buses; that wasn’t an option back in the day.

In the 80s, the showers were notorious for running out of hot water early. So almost anyone who didn’t make the split in Arenberg would call it a day and jump in the team car for a quick ride to the finish. Anyone who kept riding after that did so knowing they would get a cold shower at the end if they were lucky.
 
Re: Re:

Jano said:
More Strides than Rides said:
phanatic said:
d-s3 said:
I'd say:
- Winning move 9 of 10. Long distance, risky, perfectly timed, perfectly executed (staying with day break),...
- Race itself 6 of 10 as the chasers did not manage to bring much suspense. There was more anxiety about Sagan having mechanical than Sagan being caught.
Why not give Sagan 10 of 10 for that winning move? QS finally showed a weakness and Sagan jumped all over it. That was like watching a Rambo movie, with all the clever naysayers refusing to suspend disbelief: they're like, why work with Sagan for a podium spot? Because: why wait for Terpstra for nothing?

Babylon has fallen! All glorious is the Queen! :lol:
Because Diller had a lot to do with the success of the winning move. Switch Diller with any sacrificial breakaway rider from the peloton and the race gets much closer.
True, nevertheless Sagan pulled at least two times more distance wise in the last 40km than any chaser behind him. That is what made the race good. Was he going to be caught or not...?
Yup, the gap grew only with sagan on front. However you can´t tell if sagan would have finish it of alone. First of all, he admitted to have cramps at the end. If riding alone, he might have started cramping much sooner. Also, might not have been able to do so many monster pulls, because he was able to ease a little bit while Dillier and Wallays were pulling.
 
Re: Re:

Leinster said:
Angliru said:
GraftPunk said:
A really interesting article that you guys might enjoy (I found it a fascinating):http://www.velonews.com/2018/04/news/roubaixs-showers-a-dying-part-of-cycling-lore_462851
Thanks! Excellent article. I would think that after such a grueling race one would look forward to a hot a shower especially with the long history of Roubaix's showers. I know after a long ride a hot shower/bath is what I look forward to the most, with stuffing my face with food and drink running a close second.
The article does mention that the trend now is for the riders to shower on their team buses; that wasn’t an option back in the day.

In the 80s, the showers were notorious for running out of hot water early. So almost anyone who didn’t make the split in Arenberg would call it a day and jump in the team car for a quick ride to the finish. Anyone who kept riding after that did so knowing they would get a cold shower at the end if they were lucky.
And nobody thought to implement a rule saying that people actually finishing the race got first dips on the showers? :p
 
Apr 1, 2013
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@readheaddane

honestly the "rule" should have been, every rider is entitled to have a warm/hot shower after the race, rather than choosing who should and who not .... but I guess in those days, there wasn't too much respect for the riders, apart of those who had "star status" (let's not forget this was always a so called "blue collar" sport ...)
 

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