2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 20: Feltre - Monte Avena 194 km

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Re:

Red Rick said:
Nibali to attack on Passo Manghen

Nobody to join

5 Movistar domistiques to close it down

Nothing exciting to happen
The more that I think about it, the more that I realise that Nibali doesn't need to attack really early. He is less than two minutes behind: how much time does he need on this stage to be a realistic chance to overtake Carapaz in the ITT? Thirty seconds? Probably not enough, but you never know. Forty-five seconds gives him maybe a 25% chance to take pink on the final stage, and that gain would be more than enough for him to forget about Roglic also. A one minute gain here possibly makes him favourite to win the Giro.

So looking at the profile, if Nibali has the legs, then why not just attack in the final few kms of the penultimate climb (about 15 kms from the finish)? By that point of the stage all domestiques except for Landa are probably dropped; to gain a minute over that terrain doesn't appear to be greatly unrealistic.

The best chance for long range action on the Manghen is with Astana and Lopez. If Superman begins to threaten the podium places then that is the best chance to create an epic stage imo.
 
Here's what I would do tomorrow.
Sign in at the start, sneak out to Viale Pedavena, get to Bv. per Monte Avena, find a nice bush, get a couple of beers, take a good nap and wait for the right moment.
 
Did Nibali scout the downhill in that 1.5 last climb? If he did what is that? 25 seconds? Not enough.

If Nibali didn't BS, "Alberto Contador is an inspiration", and "second place is not good", Mangehn is the place, like Sormano in last year's GDL. Poker move, attack hopefully with guys (like one) up the road to help in the final 20 km. Kamikaze, but when you have nothing to prove, what the heck. Go down with fireworks.

Letting Carapaz get all this time was a HUGE mistake, hare and tortoise...
 
Sad that they don't show this stage from the first kilometer. I am optimistic in Carapaz ability to hold on to maglia rosa today. He hasn't shown any weaknesses lately and I don't think that he is going to be any weaker today than he has been during this week. Who knows, maybe he evens extends the gap in the end.
 
Re: Re:

gregrowlerson said:
The more that I think about it, the more that I realise that Nibali doesn't need to attack really early. He is less than two minutes behind: how much time does he need on this stage to be a realistic chance to overtake Carapaz in the ITT? Thirty seconds? Probably not enough, but you never know. Forty-five seconds gives him maybe a 25% chance to take pink on the final stage, and that gain would be more than enough for him to forget about Roglic also. A one minute gain here possibly makes him favourite to win the Giro.
last time they did the Verona time trial Nibali was 5th - so basically as good as it can get - and still didn't put a minute into any GC other contender apart from Robert Kiserlovski.

And Carapaz ist way better than Kiserlovski. I'd say, if he keeps a 30s lead, he'll win the Giro.
 
Re:

RattaKuningas said:
Sad that they don't show this stage from the first kilometer. I am optimistic in Carapaz ability to hold on to maglia rosa today. He hasn't shown any weaknesses lately and I don't think that he is going to be any weaker today than he has been during this week. Who knows, maybe he evens extends the gap in the end.
Rai Sport is showing the whole thing
 
Hopefully Movistar to have a festival all day. Carapaz is fresh to set the final knife cut to his competitors.
Roglic can only surprise today, he went into the giro in too early superform - today he is very likely to loose the podium.
 
Re:

sir fly said:
Here's what I would do tomorrow.
Sign in at the start, sneak out to Viale Pedavena, get to Bv. per Monte Avena, find a nice bush, get a couple of beers, take a good nap and wait for the right moment.
That were the tactics of a certain Denis Menchov. I still remember him winning Bola del Mundo 2012 not even knowing he was in the race.

Croce d'Aune has possibly a many sides as Mortirolo itself and it seems they decided to spice up the finale by combining at least 3 sides to some extent. Monte Avena is just above Croce d'Aune and you can easily reach it from the top of Croce (that's the main road). They decided to partly descend the Feltre side and then climb back Croce on a secondary road.
 

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