Re:
The more that I think about it, the more that I realise that Nibali doesn't need to attack really early. He is less than two minutes behind: how much time does he need on this stage to be a realistic chance to overtake Carapaz in the ITT? Thirty seconds? Probably not enough, but you never know. Forty-five seconds gives him maybe a 25% chance to take pink on the final stage, and that gain would be more than enough for him to forget about Roglic also. A one minute gain here possibly makes him favourite to win the Giro.
So looking at the profile, if Nibali has the legs, then why not just attack in the final few kms of the penultimate climb (about 15 kms from the finish)? By that point of the stage all domestiques except for Landa are probably dropped; to gain a minute over that terrain doesn't appear to be greatly unrealistic.
The best chance for long range action on the Manghen is with Astana and Lopez. If Superman begins to threaten the podium places then that is the best chance to create an epic stage imo.
Red Rick said:Nibali to attack on Passo Manghen
Nobody to join
5 Movistar domistiques to close it down
Nothing exciting to happen
The more that I think about it, the more that I realise that Nibali doesn't need to attack really early. He is less than two minutes behind: how much time does he need on this stage to be a realistic chance to overtake Carapaz in the ITT? Thirty seconds? Probably not enough, but you never know. Forty-five seconds gives him maybe a 25% chance to take pink on the final stage, and that gain would be more than enough for him to forget about Roglic also. A one minute gain here possibly makes him favourite to win the Giro.
So looking at the profile, if Nibali has the legs, then why not just attack in the final few kms of the penultimate climb (about 15 kms from the finish)? By that point of the stage all domestiques except for Landa are probably dropped; to gain a minute over that terrain doesn't appear to be greatly unrealistic.
The best chance for long range action on the Manghen is with Astana and Lopez. If Superman begins to threaten the podium places then that is the best chance to create an epic stage imo.