2019 Tour de France Predictions Challenge

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So far Pinot is in all the brackets, so a DNF is not predicted. That's my fear. At the Nationals, he dropped people like flies when he wanted to, I believe.

Too many can top-10, or better, but things happen and we have to make choices. Good. I left great riders out of my selection: gamble.

I'll keep tabs and proclaim the winner in Paris.
 
My guess (expectation rather than hope). Would be happy to be wrong on several spots.

1. Thomas
2. Bernal
3. A. Yates
4. Pinot
5. Fuglsang
6. Kruijswijk
7. Bardet
8. Quintana
9. Uran
10. Buchmann

Top Ten Darkhorse/Lurkers:
Landa (higher if not for Giro in his legs), Nibali (higher if not for Giro), Valverde, Mas, Van Garderen, Gaudu, Dennis, Porte (if he stays upright), Benoot, D. Martin.
 
Re: Re:

Koronin said:
Robert5091 said:
Yates twins thrown out - 50 Yates clones found in a big garden shed belonging to the Raël Movement in Lancashire.

G abandons after spotted on first rest day outside local pâtisserie with a box of chocolate eclairs and drinking café au lait.

Nibali signs book deal for "Vincenzo's Voodoo book for kids".

Valverde, Quintana and Landa get in fist fight over team leadership.

Someone steals Pruhomme's flag just before start of last stage and has to use large ladle instead.

Team mechanic at Trek posts photos online of LRP asleep with Froome pillow, duvet cover and bed sheets.

Don't think Valverde would get involved in that, esp since he keeps trying to give Tour leadership away. However, the other two I could see in a fight. Anyway, a very humorous prediction list here.
Valverde will obviously be the one trying to keep the other two apart.
 
Re: Re:

klintE said:
Cance > TheRest said:
Yes, no Bernal in the top 10. He will be sacrifized for Thomas after some early mishaps.
What you mean by "mishaps"?
He will ride in "deluxe sky train", what possibly can go wrong (early)?
Where the mishap can occur? On LPBF? Don't think it gonna happen. He is a top climber at the moment.
The key questions for him are long range endurance and power management on the road. He's young but also has a nice bunch of advisers in store. So on paper he must be top10.
How should I know?

I just think that there is a shroud of uncertainty around Bernal, since he has never ridden a GT as leader and he has no GT record to back up the huge hype around him. So I would not be surprised if it does not end well for him.
 
1 Thomas 00:00
2 Fuglsang 01:04
3 Kruijswijk 01:45
4 Bardet 03:40
5 Pinot 03:49
6 Quintana 04:01
7 Bernal 07:22
8 Yates (A) 09:38
9 Gaudu 11:51
10 Uran 12:01

Close battle for podium, Thomas to make a difference in the TT and sprinting to the finish line. Bardet and Pinot will be watching each other with Pinot being the better thanks to Gaudu.
 
Jan 7, 2014
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Re:

Robert5091 said:
Valverde, Quintana and Landa get in fist fight over team leadership.
Valverde not leader, this is for sure
"This year I have proposed to disconnect from the general. What I'm not going to do is be filing every day in the final part. I will be with the two leaders all the time, with Nairo and Mikel, but in the final part it will be up to other teammates. I will disengage a little. If the race is cut and it catches me in between, nothing will happen. I will have cut myself, I will give a little time and think about the next stage. The important thing is that, when I have to be on the mountain, it is in the best possible conditions"


https://www.marca.com/ciclismo/2019/07/02/5d19c3da46163f795c8b460e.html
 
Apr 18, 2016
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1. Bernal
2. Fuglsang
3. Pinot
4. A. Yates
5. Quintana
6. Bardet
7. Landa
8. Kruiswijk
9. Nibali
10. Enric Mas
 
Forty-three people have given a top 10. I decided to do the maths and give 1 point for a 10th place, 2 points for 9th etc. So this is the list of favorites according to this forum.

The numbers represent Points/Votes/First places. So more than half of the voters predicted a win for Bernal, but Pinot and Fuglsang got more top 10 places.

1. Bernal 353/39/26
2. Fuglsang 259/40/1
3. Pinot 258/42/3
4. Thomas 242/34/6
5. A. Yates 236/35/0
6. Quintana 211/38/1
7. Bardet 158/35/0
8. Kruijswijk 113/23/0
9. Uran 98/22/1
10. Landa 93/18/3
11. Buchmann 70/20/0
12. Nibali 51/11/1
13. Mas 40/12/0
14. D. Martin 35/16/0
15. Porte 27/8/0
16. Valverde 18/5/0
17. Zakarin 11/5/0
18. Barguil 11/3/0
19. G. Martin 10/1/1
20. Kelderman 8/2/0
21. Woods 8/1/0
22. G. Bennett 8/1/0
23. Poels 7/3/0
24. Aru 7/1/0
25. Van Garderen 5/2/0
26. Alaphilippe 6/1/0
27. Benoot 5/3/0
28. S. Yates 2/2/0
28. Dennis 2/2/0
30. Gaudu 2/1/0
31. Kreuziger 1/1/0
 
Re:

Pantani_lives said:
Compared to the bookmakers this forum has more confidence in Pinot, while the bookmakers still believe in Richie Porte much more than we do.
Whilst this is correct I should add a couple of points.

Bookmakers' odds will be skewed towards countries in which sports gambling is legal, free of onerous regulation, easily accessible, allows bookmakers to set odds rather than Pari-mutuel and popular amongst the masses. (Australia would be a perfect example)

Bookmakers' odds will be much more a reflection of the bloke in the street's opinion rather than people who closely follow cycling. The "July cycling fan"'s opinion.
 
Re:

Pantani_lives said:
Forty-three people have given a top 10. I decided to do the maths and give 1 point for a 10th place, 2 points for 9th etc. So this is the list of favorites according to this forum.

The numbers represent Points/Votes/First places. So more than half of the voters predicted a win for Bernal, but Pinot and Fuglsang got more top 10 places.

1. Bernal 353/39/26
2. Fuglsang 259/40/1
3. Pinot 258/42/3
4. Thomas 242/34/6
5. A. Yates 236/35/0
6. Quintana 211/38/1
7. Bardet 158/35/0
8. Kruijswijk 113/23/0
9. Uran 98/22/1
10. Landa 93/18/3
11. Buchmann 70/20/0
12. Nibali 51/11/1
13. Mas 40/12/0
14. D. Martin 35/16/0
15. Porte 27/8/0
16. Valverde 18/5/0
17. Zakarin 11/5/0
18. Barguil 11/3/0
19. G. Martin 10/1/1
20. Kelderman 8/2/0
21. Woods 8/1/0
22. G. Bennett 8/1/0
23. Poels 7/3/0
24. Aru 7/1/0
25. Van Garderen 5/2/0
26. Alaphilippe 6/1/0
27. Benoot 5/3/0
28. S. Yates 2/2/0
28. Dennis 2/2/0
30. Gaudu 2/1/0
31. Kreuziger 1/1/0
None of those riders would surprise me with a top ten finish. Amazing that there are so many in contention, and most likely there will be a surprise top ten finisher outside of this bunch!
 
Re:

Escarabajo said:
The forum results are to be expected from cycling fans who follow cycling all year.
Not quite. I mean that is the truth but beside cycling fans has their favorites, guys they like and unspecified hunches.
In small probe it may result in disturbed picture.
 

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