What you mean by "mishaps"?
He will ride in "deluxe sky train", what possibly can go wrong (early)?
Where the mishap can occur? On LPBF? Don't think it gonna happen. He is a top climber at the moment.
The key questions for him are long range endurance and power management on the road. He's young but also has a nice bunch of advisers in store. So on paper he must be top10.
I just think that there is a shroud of uncertainty around Bernal, since he has never ridden a GT as leader and he has no GT record to back up the huge hype around him. So I would not be surprised if it does not end well for him.
Valverde not leader, this is for sure "This year I have proposed to disconnect from the general. What I'm not going to do is be filing every day in the final part. I will be with the two leaders all the time, with Nairo and Mikel, but in the final part it will be up to other teammates. I will disengage a little. If the race is cut and it catches me in between, nothing will happen. I will have cut myself, I will give a little time and think about the next stage. The important thing is that, when I have to be on the mountain, it is in the best possible conditions"
Whilst this is correct I should add a couple of points.
Bookmakers' odds will be skewed towards countries in which sports gambling is legal, free of onerous regulation, easily accessible, allows bookmakers to set odds rather than Pari-mutuel and popular amongst the masses. (Australia would be a perfect example)
Bookmakers' odds will be much more a reflection of the bloke in the street's opinion rather than people who closely follow cycling. The "July cycling fan"'s opinion.