# Giro d'Italia2020 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-Stage Analysis

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#### Brullnux

I do think the bonus of it being October not May is that it's not so much a matter of clearing tons of snow as preventing much from sticking on to the floor. Even if it snows a few times between now and the stages they'll surely be clearing less than a metre of snow? Unless a freak year

Of course if it snows on the day then that's an issue re descents

#### Stelvio

I'm starting to feel ever so slightly hopeful about the Stelvio stage. According to the current forecast at 3Bmeteo (no idea how good they are), Thursday afternoon will be +5C and sunny (and no more snow between now and then). And there does not appear to be much snow at the top currently.

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#### matteof93

I'm starting to feel ever so slightly hopeful about the Stelvio stage. According to the current forecast at 3Bmeteo (no idea how good they are), Thursday afternoon will be +5C and sunny (and no more snow between now and then). And there does not appear to be much snow at the top currently.
Confirmed. Take a look at the two graphs below: the green circle at the top is about temperature 2 meters above the ground, the circle at the bottom is about expected mm of rain.
At the moment, GFS (a mathematical model for weather forecast) tells us that there should not be any snow/rain on the Stelvio until the 22/10 and, that day, temperature should be above 0 C.

Similarly, temperatures above 0 C for the stage of the Agnello on the 24/10. However, in this case, there is still a risk of snow/rain on 22/10 and 23/10.

#### Red Rick

Moderator
Confirmed. Take a look at the two graphs below: the green circle at the top is about temperature 2 meters above the ground, the circle at the bottom is about expected mm of rain.
At the moment, GFS (a mathematical model for weather forecast) tells us that there should not be any snow/rain on the Stelvio until the 22/10 and, that day, temperature should be above 0 C.

Similarly, temperatures above 0 C for the stage of the Agnello on the 24/10. However, in this case, there is still a risk of snow/rain on 22/10 and 23/10.

jnormanroach

#### matteof93

In Italy we say "Non dire gatto se non ce l'hai nel sacco", literally "Don't say cat if you don't have it in the bag".
Meaning: weather forecast for the next week is not 100% reliable yet, there is still a chance the weather could change.
However, I would say that there is more than 80% probability that both stages will take place without any problem.

#### Samu Cuenca

In Italy we say "Non dire gatto se non ce l'hai nel sacco", literally "Don't say cat if you don't have it in the bag".

Someone please generate a meme of Nibali pulling Gatto in and out of a bag!

#### richwallone

Great Hope it holds...

Let's deal with Stelvio for now... I like what I'm seeing... It might be cold though, -2º to +2°C... Could be also problematic on descent with ice on the road from melting roadside snow... Hope not...

If weather cooperates on the race day in the mountains and it hasn't been snowing in the 3-4 days leading up to the stage, the RCS repeatedly said, the routes will be unaffected and go on as planned... Fingers crossed!!!

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#### Max Rockatansky

Major of Alessandria says No again to cycling. Now stage 19 is 258k. Riders should use this as a training day and ride at 33 km/h or something.

#### Extinction

Italian RAI Giro coverage military meteorologist said the Stelvio stage on Thursday looks decent weather wise, however, it's the Colle dell'Agnello/Col d'Izoard stage on Saturday that could be iffy. Although it appears Friday has more potential for snow at elevation, so there's hope yet.

Red Rick

#### Extinction

More interesting stats reported in la Gazzetta dello Sport (with incredible nonchalance/disinvoltura): the first part of Piancavallo was truly leveled as far as the data of some of the riders is concerned, with extremely high initial average VAM values above 1800 for around 20 minutes. At the beginning of the Giro, during the first test of the Etna climb on 5 October, that wasn't the case.

#### matteof93

Italian RAI Giro coverage military meteorologist said the Stelvio stage on Thursday looks decent weather wise, however, it's the Colle dell'Agnello/Col d'Izoard stage on Saturday that could be iffy. Although it appears Friday has more potential for snow at elevation, so there's hope yet.
No problem at all for the Agnello. Temperatures will be quite a lot above the average for this period of the year, therefore rain instead of snow.
We are going to be very lucky this time, of course it is not normal to have such high temperatures at that altitude at the end of October.

Take a look at the weather forecast for the Monviso mountain, which is 3848 m high and just 9 km far away from the Agnello (as the crow flies, in fact you can see the mountain during the last part of the climb). Because of the proximity to the Agnello, you can safely assume that the conditions will be similar.
On Saturday the freezing level will be just above 3000 m, meaning that at 2744 m (top of the climb) the temperature should be in the range of +2 / +4 Celsius degrees, which is perfectly ok. The same holds for Friday, temperature just above freezing so rain instead of snow.

Notice that on Monday, just 2 days later, the freezing level will plummet around 1500 m, meaning that at the top of the Agnello the temperature will be around -5 / -10 Celsius.

If RCS did what many people suggested, meaning starting the Giro with the Alps and finishing in Sicily, this stage would have not been possible because at the beginning of October the weather conditions on the Agnello were colder than the conditions that they will find in a couple of days.

#### mikii4567

Do we trust Beppe Conti?

#### Forever The Best

Just the above post says, the weather forecast looks decent for Agnello. Double Sestriere without Finestre would be awful.

#### matteof93

I don't trust that article at all. Take a look at the forecast I posted above.
There will be rain on the Agnello on Friday, not snow. However, the freezing level will be just above the top of the climb....so the problem is uncertainty, because they can't be 100% sure that there won't be any snow.

My prediction: RCS are not willing to take the chance of cancelling stage 20 because of snow on the Agnello, so they will choose the plan B. In the end, it won't snow on the Agnello so on Saturday we will have a beautiful sunny day on the Agnello with the road in perfect condition but the Giro will still follow plan B. And I will be very very very very pissed off.

#### Eddy Evenepoel

I saw this mentioned as an alternative, but not sure of Finestre.

#### Forever The Best

I dont know why they are deciding to cancel a climb 3(!) days earlier, if that's true. Remember Tirreno 2016 where they cancelled the MTF due to weather conditions but it was perfectly rideable?

#### matteof93

I saw this mentioned as an alternative, but not sure of Finestre.
Impossible. Finestre is not ridable by the pros in the current conditions.

#### matteof93

I dont know why they are deciding to cancel a climb 3(!) days earlier, if that's true. Remember Tirreno 2016 where they cancelled the MTF due to weather conditions but it was perfectly rideable?
Exactly. I fear they will repeat the same mistake.

#### mikii4567

I guess if they were to announce it tomorrow morning (I highly doubt they will looking at the forecasts posted here), the climbers will have to go all out tomorrow, whereas if they cancelled it on Saturday morning they'd be left without a chance and notice.

The one thing I don't get is how they want to do double Sestrière both times from Pragelato/Pinerolo, unless they move the start to Pinerolo. If the stage starts in Asti, that would be like 300 km

#### Red Rick

Moderator
I don't trust that article at all. Take a look at the forecast I posted above.
There will be rain on the Agnello on Friday, not snow. However, the freezing level will be just above the top of the climb....so the problem is uncertainty, because they can't be 100% sure that there won't be any snow.

My prediction: RCS are not willing to take the chance of cancelling stage 20 because of snow on the Agnello, so they will choose the plan B. In the end, it won't snow on the Agnello so on Saturday we will have a beautiful sunny day on the Agnello with the road in perfect condition but the Giro will still follow plan B. And I will be very very very very pissed off.
Did you have any part in writing the final season of Game of Thrones by any chance?

#### Forever The Best

They should announce the plan B and wait for at least 2 more days whether to use Plan A or Plan B.

#### matteof93

Did you have any part in writing the final season of Game of Thrones by any chance?
why?

Red Rick

#### Red Rick

Moderator
You seem great at writing scenarios that build hype first then lead to inevitable disappointment