Nobody serious would attack anyway because of the ridiculousness of the final 3kms, but there will be plenty of riders dropped before then anyway.
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Nobody serious would attack anyway because of the ridiculousness of the final 3kms, but there will be plenty of riders dropped before then anyway.
Nothing to happen on the first 201 km. Everything to happen on the last 3.
Bernal will probably win. I know he has a stage win already but I feel like he will want to win this one and if Ineos control the break I have a hard time seeing anyone crossing his plans. I still think that this side of the Zoncolan is stupid and should never be used in pro racing though. If they want to finish on a mythical climb, use the Ovaro side. If they want to use an insanely hard climb that isn't the Ovaro side of the Zoncolan, there are about a bazillion of them in Italy that allow for better racing than this.
Bernal will probably win. I know he has a stage win already but I feel like he will want to win this one and if Ineos control the break I have a hard time seeing anyone crossing his plans. I still think that this side of the Zoncolan is stupid and should never be used in pro racing though. If they want to finish on a mythical climb, use the Ovaro side. If they want to use an insanely hard climb that isn't the Ovaro side of the Zoncolan, there are about a bazillion of them in Italy that allow for better racing than this.
If I had anything to say we'd get this one in the Giro once (yes, I have climbed this one myself): https://www.cronoescalada.com/index.php/puertos/view/3411
If you turn right with 1km to go you can use it as a MTF, as a Pass before a downhill finish in Bozen/Bolzano or as a super hard climb before a Rittner Horn MTF or a downhill finish in Waidbruck after riding over the whole Ritten (narrow roads, lots of up and downs and technical descents).
Interesting breakaway to form early. Attacks from 58 km out, attrition on the Zonc and BIG attacks in the last 3 km. Get hyped.
People are massively underestimating the first part of the climb. Its not 4 km at 5%. People will be wrecked before the last 3km. And none of the teams of the top contenders are 'that' strong.
It's not that it isn't a hard climb, it's mainly that the final 3km are by far the hardest, so people will be scared to attack before.
I haven't climbed this side of the Zoncolan, I've only descended down to Sutrio after climbing the other side, but besides the final 3km it's also a wide road, so staying near the front is also not that hard (if you have the legs), you can move up on the climb.
It entirely depends on what Ineos want to do. Even without Sivakov, I can see Angliru Moscon and Martinez to decimate what's left of the peloton if they chose to do so before the last ramp.
It surely depends heavily on the pace during the first part of the climb. Ineos will try to make it as hard as possible, but they lack 1-2 more real climbers for the ascent like that. As you said, none of the teams has mountain train strong enough to take control from just the bottom to the top. Then I excepect it to be quite chaotic and unpredictable = definitely worth watching.
I still think plenty of people will consider trying to get away. I don't think the Ineos guys have the strength and depth to control the whole of it and the easing before the final 3k makes a good spot for outsiders to try and meet a helper to give a bit of respite before the final grind to the summit.
I also think that if you presume the most likely scenario is Bernal eviscerating everyone on the final 3k that you would arguably prefer to try get up the road managing a strong tempo and just expect him to eventually come past you rather than sitting on the train and clinging on for dear life when the hammer drops.
we'll see how we go, but i'm cautiously optimistic
Buchmann is a guy who prefers a steady but very hard tempo during the the whole climb. For him it is not the best idea to let Ineos ride a controlled tempo until the last 3km of the climb. If he has good legs I could imagine that he will try to attack or up the pace with Fabbro and/or Großschartner.
It is also possible that Ineos rides a really hard tempo and noone is really able to attack. I don't know if they have the team for that at a 8% climb.
It is also possible that Ineos rides a really hard tempo and noone is really able to attack. I don't know if they have the team for that at a 8% climb.
I had the same thought. If Buchmann is feeling good he should make the race as hard as possible from the botttom, so everybody is too tired to make huge attacs at the final 3 km.
I wouldn't call myself a giant fan, but I did grow fond of her in 2016. I don't like Loco Loco very much though.
Looks like rain and and Bellino said snow forecasted for Zoncolan. I guess I'm looking forward to looking at the finishing line.
Heard Sutrio is too far north and the raods will be blocked by snow, so they must reach Zoncolan by another road.
If the snowfall is mostly on Zoncolan itself, then I think it should be safe. It's mostly descending in snow that's an issue.
the soft modern peloton will whine and invoke extreme weather protocol, in all likelihood
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