Tour de France 2021 Tour de France: Who is going to win the green jersey?

[Pirazziattacks]

Sagan with the Giro in his legs may be in for a tough battle here. If too many 2nd and 3rd tier guys go for green Bennett and Ewan's likely stage wins could be decisive, while Sagan divides up the leftovers with Merlier, Demare, Colbrelli, Matthews etc.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Several flat stages were designed with echelons in mind. Stage 6 could be particularly good if the weather cooperates.

Perhaps Sagan's only shot at green. But it would put Van Aert in the mix, as well. I assume WVA will have to babysit Roglic, but if the former scores big in stages 1 & 2 and in the first TT it could get interesting.

 

[Cookster15]

I think its Bennett vs Ewan for Green too. But I sense Ewan's form is on the rise. Interesting the comments at the start of the thread that MvDP won't get to Paris. That surprises me. But I'd love to see Sagan win a stage even if he's too tired to compete for Green.

 

[42x16ss]

I can't see Sagan winning green with Matthews and especially Colbrelli there to take points. Bennett is still coming into form whilst Merlier hasn't ridden a GT yet. Demare is the unknown quantity, he's been winning smaller races, sure, but how well? I think it's between him and Ewan.

Meanwhile they should all be eternally grateful Van Aert is supporting a GC attempt because he would obliterate them all on points.

 

[42x16ss]

I think its Bennett vs Ewan for Green too. But I sense Ewan's form is on the rise. Interesting the comments at the start of the thread that MvDP won't get to Paris. That surprises me. But I'd love to see Sagan win a stage even if he's too tired to compete for Green.

Van der Poel really wants that gold medal, and he believes the MTB is the best shot he has.

 

[Escarabajo]

Most people are picking Ewan and Bennett for the green Jersey but it is a possibility that neither of them will make it to Paris.

 

[Netserk]

Most people are picking Ewan and Bennett for the green Jersey but it is a possibility that neither of them will make it to Paris.

Unlikely on this route.

 

[KZD]

Most people are picking Ewan and Bennett for the green Jersey but it is a possibility that neither of them will make it to Paris.

Well Bennett won't get there for sure

 

[spalco]

A new player has joined the game!

 

[Red Rick]

Van der Poel won't finish anyway, so it's Ewan vs Bennett with Bennet probably winning by default cause of the way better train.

I'm just gonna give up on any sort of rational, non-troll predictions entirely

 

[CyclistAbi]

Bennett not starting due to the knee injury. Sorry to hear that but well now i would say that this race is open now and just about anything is possible. In addition to highly anticipated GC battle now the race for green has just become something we will highly likely enjoy watching.

Great Tour edition ahead.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Its between Ballerini and Colbrelli and maybe Ewan but that depends on whether Colbrelli does a GC challenge instead, given the way he is climbing on Bahrain.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Its between Ballerini and Colbrelli and maybe Ewan but that depends on whether Colbrelli does a GC challenge instead, given the way he is climbing on Bahrain.

How is Ballerini going to win when he won't even contest bunch sprints.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

How is Ballerini going to win when he won't even contest bunch sprints.

who sprints when cavendish is dropped/crashes/finished OTL etc?

 

[Leinster]

Bennett being out kind of moves Sagan back into clear favorite status. None of the others really have shown the focus over 3 weeks to earn a jersey; even Demare at the Giro last year just won 4 stages and that was it, iirc.

 

[Pinot's goat]

who sprints when cavendish is dropped/crashes/finished OTL etc?

Cavendish won't be OTL until stage 8/9, too late for Ballerini at that point to win green, he won't even try.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Sagan indeed has a chance to intimidate now.

P.S. But true, if the best sprinter is missing, then some of the appeal is lost with that too.

 

[Pinot's goat]

even Demare at the Giro last year just won 4 stages and that was it, iirc.

Yeah, to be a green jersey candidate you must win at least 5.

 

[Leinster]

Yeah, to be a green jersey candidate you must win at least 5.

That’s not an unreasonable point, but Demare’s best other stage finish after his 4 wins, was 39th in the final TT. Obviously I think he’ll ride the Tour differently, but it’s going to be hard for him to maintain the level of consistency in his sprinting throughout the Tour that comes so easily to Sagan.

 

[Pinot's goat]

That’s not an unreasonable point, but Demare’s best other stage finish after his 4 wins, was 39th in the final TT. Obviously I think he’ll ride the Tour differently, but it’s going to be hard for him to maintain the level of consistency in his sprinting throughout the Tour that comes so easily to Sagan.

There were not as many bunch sprints in that Giro as there are at the Tour this year.

 

[SHAD0W93]

#ManxMissile5Wins

Realistically it depends on how Ewan plays it. I wouldn’t be shocked if we have a surprise winner.

 

[perico]

I just have a soft spot for Cav. I hope he can surprise folks. Amazing since I couldn’t stand him when he was with Columbia.

 

[titan31]

I wouldn't be sure Ewan finishes the race since he also plans on doing the Vuelta for stage wins too. If he wants to finish it and Lotto target green, I think he'll win it, but if not, I'd be going Sagan since Bora will race for it.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Lefevere doubts severity of knee issue that kept Sam Bennett off Tour de France team

Deceuninck-QuickStep manager suggests Irishman suffers from 'fear of failure'

www.cyclingnews.com

Reading this i would say that in retrospective Bennett, like Almeida, was likely a casualty of Lefevere going all in with Evenepoel.

P.S. Alaphilippe is safe for now as it likely came down to a decision who Lefevere wanted to keep more. As the decision was made to keep Alaphilippe then i guess what was left is a contract that could make somebody like Cavendish happy. In the end i sincerely doubt only a knee injury is what resulted in such outcome.

 

[Blanco]

Sagan, of course.