Vuelta a España 2021 Vuelta a España First Official Rest Day

[SHAD0W93]

Spoiler: Re: Roglic 3rd week ITT

Or

View: https://youtu.be/pT6Tw0U0gsE

 

[sir fly]

Tall order to overthrow Roglič as it stands.
Fastest in the prologue, strongest in the mountains, well protected on the flats and, most important, contenders' teams aren't meeting expectations.
11 days isn't a small way to go, and I'm not sure some fading would be unexpected, 'cause only something alike may change the course events are taking.

 

[Bolder]

Last, I did not pick Roglic for the win here. I will stick with my answer. There are little things that are still bothering me about him.

What about Roglic is bothering you?

I picked Rogla -- frankly as a fan I'd be pretty happy if the standings now were the final standings. In my perfect world MAL would win with a crazy mountain performance, but barring incident and all things being equal, Roglic should be able to three-peat the Vuelta.

Now...i DO have worries about Roglic, namely that he crashes alot, and that his crashes have consequences. The odds of that happening are actually pretty high, but based on fitness/performance/team strength he should win.

Haig is an intriguing wild card and I'm interested to see how BV's team tactics evolve.

 

[roundabout]

Spoiler: Re: Roglic 3rd week ITT

Question here, do we consider the following ITTs disappointing?

2016 Giro MTT - No
2017 Tour final ITT - yes
2018 Tour final ITT - yes
2019 Giro 2nd ITT - that was stage 9
2019 Giro final ITT - yes
2019 Vuelta ITT - that was stage 10
2020 Tour final ITT - yes
2020 Vuelta ITT - maybe as the gap to Carthy/Carapaz was smaller than I had expected

Of course there are reasons for some of the disappointing performances and maybe Roglic will wallop the rest this time around to put this doubt to rest.

 

[perico]

Mas can be a very good TTer, as we saw in the 2018 Vuelta and 2019 TDF. Problem is that at his best that’s still not Roglic, who is the Olympic champion for good reason and is likely the best GC TTer in the world right now (Tadej isn’t as consistently excellent but obviously just as good when he is on form). So Mas likely will still need a buffer.

He was the best of all GC contenders in the 2018 TT at la Vuelta, but that was against Bala, Adam Yates, and Superman. Roglic is just on another level.

Where Mas could put some real time into Roglic is on stage 18. Mas was arguably the strongest on the Angliru last year, attacking early and able to stay with Carapaz, where Roglic struggled to stay with the favorites. Mas was also very strong to La Covatilla, but couldn’t shake Roglic and ended up saving his Vuelta win.

I think for Movistar to have a chance, they can’t ship anymore time before stage 17. Then let each rider mark Roglic for a day and the other one to go all out. To Covadonga, force Roglic to chase Lopez all day. It’s a win-win. If Roglic lets him go, you let Superman off the leash and then all bets are off. If Roglic tempos his way back up to Lopez with each attack, let Mas do his thing of glueing himself to Roglic’s back wheel. Hopefully on stage 18, Roglic is worn down by the previous stage. Send Verona up the road and have Mas go early on the last climb.

it’s a high risk plan, but to beat Roglic you gotta drain him before the TT and hopefully get a 30 second buffer.

 

[Red Rick]

Basically Roglic' most disappointing ITTs are still better than Mas' very best ones so far.

In the Tour, Mas dropped over a minute on the first ITT when Roglic roleplaying as The Mummy, and the in the 2nd ITT, when Roglic wasn't there, mythical 3rd week Mas dropped almost 2 full minutes to Vingegaard

 

[Netserk]

If Roglič is not fatigued and also subpar in the mountains like in the end of the 2019 Giro and 2020 Vuelta, then (baring incidents) none of the factors behind his previous poor ITTs are present and he will win the final ITT here.

 

[BlueRoads]

I think Mas' time trialing was significantly stronger at DQS than now with Movistar, but since he now looks stronger than ever before, if he can hold that level, maybe he will do his best tt ever.

 

[VeloMaster]

Perhaps the notable lesson of the opening week lies with Ineos and the challenges, even outright, failure of their vaunted multi-leader proposition. The three attacks by Yates did little but expose a struggling Bernal, while not significantly advancing the former's prospects for GC. For whom was Yates riding? Himself, Bernal... ?

As a result, TJV and Movi are in prime positions, with Bahrain on their heels. Carapaz's decision to pull the plug and lose enormous time may give him some leeway for a stage win, but it effectively downgrades him to domestique -- one less Grenadier for everyone else to worry about.

 

[ice&fire]

Perhaps the notable lesson of the opening week lies with Ineos and the challenges, even outright, failure of their vaunted multi-leader proposition. The three attacks by Yates did little but expose a struggling Bernal, while not significantly advancing the former's prospects for GC. For whom was Yates riding? Himself, Bernal... ?

As a result, TJV and Movi are in prime positions, with Bahrain on their heels. Carapaz's decision to pull the plug and lose enormous time may give him some leeway for a stage win, but it effectively downgrades him to domestique -- one less Grenadier for everyone else to worry about.

Carapaz is such a nice guy: he's relieved Movistar short lineup from chasing him.

 

[broppo]

Maybe, but Lopez and Mas should finish higher than Bahrain’s riders plus the breakaways they’re going to be in. Though yes it will be tough against Bahrain. Though Bahrain can either be BAHRAIN or bahrain.

Thayt is true but how often will the gc favourites win the stage? I doubt it will be very often, JUmbo will happily let the break get it and the other teams don't seem strong enough to prevent it. Bahrain is also the heavy favourite with the bookies (x1.6), Movistar pays out a hefty x 5.5.

 

[Sciatic]

Mas can be a very good TTer, as we saw in the 2018 Vuelta and 2019 TDF. Problem is that at his best that’s still not Roglic, who is the Olympic champion for good reason and is likely the best GC TTer in the world right now (Tadej isn’t as consistently excellent but obviously just as good when he is on form). So Mas likely will still need a buffer.

He was the best of all GC contenders in the 2018 TT at la Vuelta, but that was against Bala, Adam Yates, and Superman. Roglic is just on another level.

Where Mas could put some real time into Roglic is on stage 18. Mas was arguably the strongest on the Angliru last year, attacking early and able to stay with Carapaz, where Roglic struggled to stay with the favorites. Mas was also very strong to La Covatilla, but couldn’t shake Roglic and ended up saving his Vuelta win.

I think for Movistar to have a chance, they can’t ship anymore time before stage 17. Then let each rider mark Roglic for a day and the other one to go all out. To Covadonga, force Roglic to chase Lopez all day. It’s a win-win. If Roglic lets him go, you let Superman off the leash and then all bets are off. If Roglic tempos his way back up to Lopez with each attack, let Mas do his thing of glueing himself to Roglic’s back wheel. Hopefully on stage 18, Roglic is worn down by the previous stage. Send Verona up the road and have Mas go early on the last climb.

it’s a high risk plan, but to beat Roglic you gotta drain him before the TT and hopefully get a 30 second buffer.

I would like to see that, but I think the decision on who should be the attacker and who sits on will depend on who has the legs that day. Those are two tough stages, and though it makes smart sense to have a plan going in, it’s not always possible to execute if the rider dialed in to attack is hanging on by a thread to the front group.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Alright, so I decided to do a little bit of research to see whether this "Roglic fades/is bad in the third week"-storyline has anything to it.

I had a look at his GT's from 2018, 2019 and 2020 and compared his time against the other riders finishing in the top 10 in total, in ITT's and in the mountain stages. Below is what I found. Please note that the numbers are without time bonuses.

To be honest, I'm not sure that it's possible to draw any conclusions despite all my hard work. He's not a third week monster, but personally I wouldn't call him weak either, but feel free to draw your own conclusions.

On average he has lost ~12 seconds in total, 3 seconds in the ITT's and ~10 seconds in the mountains to each of the other 3 best riders in the GT in the third week. So yeah, perhaps he does have a slight tendency to fade a bit in the third week.

Tour 2020:

Total win/loss:

Dumoulin -53
Thomas -44
Froome -9
Roglic
Kruijswijk +65
Martin +83
Zakarin +102
Bardet +166
Landa +181
Quintana +551

Win/loss in ITT:

Dumoulin -72
Froome -71
Thomas -58
Zakarin -10
Roglic
Kruijswijk +33
Bardet +44
Martin +88
Landa +119
Quintana +174

Win/loss in mountain stages:

Martin -5
Roglic
Thomas +14
Dumoulin +19
Kruijswijk +32
Froome +62
Landa +62
Zakarin +112
Bardet +122
Quintana +377

Giro 2019:

Total win/loss:

Nibali -135
Landa -124
Carapaz -93
Lopez -2
Roglic
Mollema +32
Yates +52
Sivakov +54
Majka +188
Zakarin +244

Win/loss in ITT:

Nibali -3
Roglic
Zakarin +10
Majka +14
Sivakov +31
Landa +31
Yates +34
Mollema +38
Carapaz +46
Lopez +54

Win/loss in mountain stages:

Landa -155
Carapaz -139
Nibali -132
Lopez -56
Mollema -6
Roglic
Yates +18
Sivakov +23
Majka +174
Zakarin +234

Vuelta 2019:

There were no ITT in the third week this edition so total win/loss is the same as in mountain stages only

Total win/loss:

Pogacar -40
Valverde -9
Majka -9
Roglic
Lopez +33
Quintana +76
Hagen +125
Kelderman +293
Nieve +293
Soler +325

Tour 2020:

Total win/loss:

Pogacar -101
Roglic
Porte +12
Dumoulin +91
Mas +107
Landa +157
Caruso +236
Lopez +247
Uran +323
Yates +377

Win/loss in ITT:

Pogacar -116
Porte -35
Dumoulin -35
Roglic
Caruso +33
Mas +49
Uran +58
Landa +91
Yates +151
Lopez +261

Win/loss in mountain stages:

Lopez -14
Roglic
Pogacar +15
Porte +47
Mas +58
Landa +66
Dumoulin +126
Caruso +203
Yates +226
Uran +265

Vuelta 2020:

Total win/loss:

De La Cruz -52
Gaudu -28
Roglic
Carthy +19
Carapaz +28
Mas +110
Poels +127
Martin +132
Grossschartner +169
Valverde +196

Win/loss in ITT:

Roglic
Carthy +25
Carapaz +49
De La Cruz +59
Poels +72
Martin +77
Mas +103
Grossschartner +114
Valverde +147
Gaudu +148

Win/loss in mountain stages:

Gaudu -176
De La Cruz -111
Carapaz -21
Carthy -6
Roglic
Mas +7
Valverde +49
Poels +55
Martin +55
Grossschartner +55

 

[Red Rick]

So LCRP noted that Bernal was whincing when sitting down for the interview yesterday and that he didn't get out of the saddle all climb?

If that's true then it does look like back issues for him again.

 

[Lequack]

Here, some fun watching
Inside the Vuelta a España 2021 | INEOS Grenadiers Off-Script | Behind the Scenes Highlights

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyldEe6NYbc

 

[Escarabajo]

So LCRP noted that Bernal was whincing when sitting down for the interview yesterday and that he didn't get out of the saddle all climb?

If that's true then it does look like back issues for him again.

Or maybe he needed to go to the bathroom!

 

[CyclistAbi]

I am going to go with the underdog Roglič.

 

[Lequack]

 

[Savant12]

Roglic will take this saving a crash. Mas has a chance if somehow he does arise as the "new Contador" during this Vuelta.

 

[Nick2413]

Alright, so I decided to do a little bit of research to see whether this "Roglic fades/is bad in the third week"-storyline has anything to it.

I had a look at his GT's from 2018, 2019 and 2020 and compared his time against the other riders finishing in the top 10 in total, in ITT's and in the mountain stages. Below is what I found. Please note that the numbers are without time bonuses.

To be honest, I'm not sure that it's possible to draw any conclusions despite all my hard work. He's not a third week monster, but personally I wouldn't call him weak either, but feel free to draw your own conclusions.

On average he has lost ~12 seconds in total, 3 seconds in the ITT's and ~10 seconds in the mountains to each of the other 3 best riders in the GT in the third week. So yeah, perhaps he does have a slight tendency to fade a bit in the third week.

Tour 2020:

Total win/loss:

Dumoulin -53
Thomas -44
Froome -9
Roglic
Kruijswijk +65
Martin +83
Zakarin +102
Bardet +166
Landa +181
Quintana +551

Win/loss in ITT:

Dumoulin -72
Froome -71
Thomas -58
Zakarin -10
Roglic
Kruijswijk +33
Bardet +44
Martin +88
Landa +119
Quintana +174

Win/loss in mountain stages:

Martin -5
Roglic
Thomas +14
Dumoulin +19
Kruijswijk +32
Froome +62
Landa +62
Zakarin +112
Bardet +122
Quintana +377

Giro 2019:

Total win/loss:

Nibali -135
Landa -124
Carapaz -93
Lopez -2
Roglic
Mollema +32
Yates +52
Sivakov +54
Majka +188
Zakarin +244

Win/loss in ITT:

Nibali -3
Roglic
Zakarin +10
Majka +14
Sivakov +31
Landa +31
Yates +34
Mollema +38
Carapaz +46
Lopez +54

Win/loss in mountain stages:

Landa -155
Carapaz -139
Nibali -132
Lopez -56
Mollema -6
Roglic
Yates +18
Sivakov +23
Majka +174
Zakarin +234

Vuelta 2019:

There were no ITT in the third week this edition so total win/loss is the same as in mountain stages only

Total win/loss:

Pogacar -40
Valverde -9
Majka -9
Roglic
Lopez +33
Quintana +76
Hagen +125
Kelderman +293
Nieve +293
Soler +325

Tour 2020:

Total win/loss:

Pogacar -101
Roglic
Porte +12
Dumoulin +91
Mas +107
Landa +157
Caruso +236
Lopez +247
Uran +323
Yates +377

Win/loss in ITT:

Pogacar -116
Porte -35
Dumoulin -35
Roglic
Caruso +33
Mas +49
Uran +58
Landa +91
Yates +151
Lopez +261

Win/loss in mountain stages:

Lopez -14
Roglic
Pogacar +15
Porte +47
Mas +58
Landa +66
Dumoulin +126
Caruso +203
Yates +226
Uran +265

Vuelta 2020:

Total win/loss:

De La Cruz -52
Gaudu -28
Roglic
Carthy +19
Carapaz +28
Mas +110
Poels +127
Martin +132
Grossschartner +169
Valverde +196

Win/loss in ITT:

Roglic
Carthy +25
Carapaz +49
De La Cruz +59
Poels +72
Martin +77
Mas +103
Grossschartner +114
Valverde +147
Gaudu +148

Win/loss in mountain stages:

Gaudu -176
De La Cruz -111
Carapaz -21
Carthy -6
Roglic
Mas +7
Valverde +49
Poels +55
Martin +55
Grossschartner +55

Thanks for looking into this. I also don’t think he’s as bad in the 3rd week as many say. I think that storyline comes from his dominance in single week races and wrongly thinking he had a bad TT in 2020 when he was just out freaked.

 

[Serpentin]

Guys did any of you notice that when Carapaz made a random attack it was Movistar that closed him down?

Have you watched Netflix ?

 

[Netserk]

So there was some discussion and forecasting here about what to expect of Rogla's ITT in the third week, and SafeBet hit (close to) bull's eye:

Mas likely needs a 2 minute buffer before the final ITT which means he needs to gain 2'30" on Roglic in the the remaining mountain stages.

 

[Rackham]

So there was some discussion and forecasting here about what to expect of Rogla's ITT in the third week, and SafeBet hit (close to) bull's eye:

Movistar themselves said 2 minutes as well.

But honestly, I think if he needed more time he could have gone harder & taken more risks (& he also lost some time almost taking a wrong turn as well).

Bernal did a good TT as well for what it's worth. I think he was enjoying himself by the end of the Vuelta & it showed in his performance.