Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Fossacesia Marina – Ortona 19.6 km ITT (Saturday, May 6th)

[Cookster15]

Only Ganna stands in the way of Remco taking pink on this opening stage. Hopefully the Olympic champion (lest we forget) Roglic only loses 20 sec max.

 

[Lequack]

Giro d’Italia 2023 Opening Ceremony & Teams Presentation live​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JxMWK5EKfM&pp=ygUEZ2lybw%3D%3D

Also on Eurosport/GCN

 

[Jagartrott]

Gotta go with Küng here. Always a bit underestimated, for some reason, and this seems a type of effort and course that should suit him. Would be really nice for him to get the pink. Ganna in pink would be rather unexciting.

 

[Gigs_98]

Remco Evenepoel will win this bike race.

 

[peterfin]

You get 10/1 odds for betting on Kung. Not bad. However I do think that Evenepoel is going to win. He has put a freaking effort in his training camps. That LBL win was also just too easy.

 

[Riek s]

Remembering 2021 ECC ITT which was ~22km with a tailwind and flat. Remco lost 15s on Kung and 8second on Ganna. So i think it can be really close here as well.

But since that was ridden before Remco & co started riding with the head/neck sock,..

Think Kung will take it home with 1 second on Remco and 5seconds on Ganna.

 

[Poursuivant]

Home Win

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

You get 10/1 odds for betting on Kung. Not bad. However I do think that Evenepoel is going to win. He has put a freaking effort in his training camps. That LBL win was also just too easy.

I mostly agree with this but I also think about how Roglic beat him in Catalunya as the underdog and set a crazy time winning on La Port despite all the predictions being about how Remco would set a w/kg record there, and I think about how Roglic just put in a 7-week (is that right?) altitude camp, and I think I should rethink that…

 

[red_flanders]

Ganna. That hill at the end isn't going to slow him down.

 

[Panda Claws]

Easy Evenepoel win. Pidcock to lose 1'30"

 

[HelloDolly]

What about Edoardo Affini ? 33/1

​

 

[johnymax]

1. Remco
2. Ganna +10s
3. Roglič +14s

 

[Bonimenier]

What about Edoardo Affini ? 33/1

Sounds like a good bet if you dislike money.

 

[Panda Claws]

Sounds like a good bet if you dislike money.

Brutal

 

[Tonton]

1. Remco
2. Ganna +10s
3. Roglič +14s

It sounds about right, except that Kung should be there in the mix. Dennis?

What will happen to "the rest"? Thomas has to deliver. Looking at the start list, the field is not that deep. Carthy, Kamna, Caruso, or Vlasov have to put 20 seconds into each other to set their bid for a great GC finish.

And there are Pinot and Pozzo. I wish them the best. Barguil too.

 

[Netserk]

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/stage-1/winner

* * * - Ganna
* * - Evenepoel
* - Küng, Roglič

 

[Red Rick]

When do teams have to give their starting order?

I see now that wind are predicted to be low but will turn from mostly cross to mostly tailwind

 

[Red Rick]

Remembering 2021 ECC ITT which was ~22km with a tailwind and flat. Remco lost 15s on Kung and 8second on Ganna. So i think it can be really close here as well.

But since that was ridden before Remco & co started riding with the head/neck sock,..

Think Kung will take it home with 1 second on Remco and 5seconds on Ganna.

That ITT was pretty back and forth even though the headwind section was shorter than the tailwind section.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Easy Evenepoel win. Pidcock to lose 1'30"

And yet I don't think that will alter Pidcock's GC ambitions.

 

[RedheadDane]

Easy Evenepoel win. Pidcock to lose 1'30"

And yet I don't think that will alter Pidcock's GC ambitions.

Is there a joke I'm not getting here?

 

[search]

When do teams have to give their starting order?

basically now. License check is at 9

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Remembering 2021 ECC ITT which was ~22km with a tailwind and flat. Remco lost 15s on Kung and 8second on Ganna. So i think it can be really close here as well.

But since that was ridden before Remco & co started riding with the head/neck sock,..

Think Kung will take it home with 1 second on Remco and 5seconds on Ganna.

As I'm surprised Logic hasn't already mentioned for the millionth time, that was because Küng got to overtake Cavagna. He usually finds a way to lose, and I can't see him winning tomorrow either. I wouldn't mind it though.

 

[peterfin]

I mostly agree with this but I also think about how Roglic beat him in Catalunya as the underdog and set a crazy time winning on La Port despite all the predictions being about how Remco would set a w/kg record there, and I think about how Roglic just put in a 7-week (is that right?) altitude camp, and I think I should rethink that…

Roglic looks also in great shape but the flat TT is not where his strength is. He could surprise us but normally he will lose seconds here. I think that everything less than 20 seconds is a great result and fits in JV's plan. Roglic 's sprint allows him to capture more boni seconds than Remco so if he doesn't lose too much in the TT's he can recover a significant part with boni's alone.

 

[peterfin]

As I'm surprised Logic hasn't already mentioned for the millionth time, that was because Küng got to overtake Cavagna. He usually finds a way to lose, and I can't see him winning tomorrow either. I wouldn't mind it though.

We should also add that the Remco of 2021 is not the Remco that won LBL in 2022 and continued his progress since then. Unfortunately, except for the Vuelta where he beat Roglic with 48s in a 30km flat TT, we don't have a good reference to assess where he is atm. He won the TT in Switzerland but experienced a heat stroke during that tour. At the worlds he lost a few seconds to Kung but his preparation was not optimal. In any case, I think it will be a seconds game between him, Kung an Ganna. 1 or 2 seconds could be the difference between losing or winning.

 

[tobydawq]

I think it's close to π.

How is the probability above 1?