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Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 13: Borgofranco d’Ivrea – Crans Montana, 199 km (Friday, May 19th)

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Amateur hour. Shameful by both RCS and the local authorities if it's pulled.

As far as the stage is concerned, it's not a great route for the breakaway tbh, so I'll go with Roglic taking the stage and with it, the pink. Probably small gaps between the best 5 or so climbers and then, assuming CdC is actually raced, big gaps behind them.
This stage reminds me of passo di stelvio stage at the giro 2020.
Kuss will drop almost everybody on croix coeur with roglic on his wheel, like rohan dennis did.
 
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Stelvio is harder, more valley and a lesser finishing climb. Couple that with the real first hard mountain stage, and this stage is a lot different and you probably shouldn't expect total carnage on Col de la Croix Couer.

That said, I still expect at least something to happen on that climb.
 
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If Tao was still here I wouldn't really expect anything other than a late push by Roglic. But now I don't think Roglic will be very afraid of a potential counterattack by Thomas. I don't think the racing will start as early as Croix de Coeur either, but a full on assault by Jumbo on Crans Montana seems like a very realistic possibility to me.
 
I'm.... worried for a very big group over Croix de Coeur cause I don't see who is gonna drill it with what domestiques. I'm inclined to think Jumbo will be more likely to set up a 4-5 man train on Crans Montana and have Roglic attack at something mid like 4-5 km to go.

I feel it looks kinda weirdly like an AdH stage but then CdC is much harder than Glandons or whatever, so maybe it's more like Col de La Loze if they finish in Meribel.
I guess I don’t know what you mean by “big” group in this case, but my guess is this race has worn out some riders and with either Ineos or Jumbo doing a tempo ride is still going to drop a lot of riders (including at least 1 of folks still in reach of a podium) when they hit the 10% gradient for last 4 Km of Croix de Coeur. However, there’s enough flat for many to catch back on before the final climb. That should still make for interesting racing, including the descent of folks trying to catch back on.
 
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The route is located in one of the finest mountain sceneries in Europe. Close proximity to Mont Blanc and Grand Combin massifs and also not too far from Monte Rosa and Matterhorn plus the finish in Bernese Alps. Unfortunately I doubt anything will be visible due to the weather. Coeur is a monster, most difficult climb of this Giro. However a long flat section in Rhone valley (and the last climb) may discourage any serious GC action there. The question is which team will want to tire out their rivals there. JV, Ineos or maybe UAE? Expect an all out action on Crans Montana and survival of the fittest. The last climb is not too difficult but its gradient is enough and coupled with a difficult stage (and weather) it can produce large gaps. Primoz to win!
 
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If Tao was still here I wouldn't really expect anything other than a late push by Roglic. But now I don't think Roglic will be very afraid of a potential counterattack by Thomas. I don't think the racing will start as early as Croix de Coeur either, but a full on assault by Jumbo on Crans Montana seems like a very realistic possibility to me.
But what will Ineos do? I don't think they will wait for Sepp Kuss to drop them all bar Thomas on Crans Montana. The wise thing would be an attack with Arensman or De Plus on Coeur. This is their last chance to use the numbers.
 
Finally the terrain we have been longing for.

What I really don't want to watch is the stage ending up with a Ineos/Jumbo train on Crans Montana. I don't want to see the usual Roglic or Thomas just holding someone else's wheel and wait for the final km. Please, someone to screw that bad scenario.

If the descent from Croix de Coeur is technical enough and the weather is bad I would love to see Bahrain unleashed on the descent once again. Especially if they manage to send someone in the break.
 
Caruso said before the Giro that he's looking forward to this one and the Tre Cime stage, fingers crossed and Santi Buitrago to crush all life on earth!
Yeah, Caruso is really special… I sometimes ask myself, ‚Where does Caruso now come from?!‘…

He was always good, but rather known as domestique for the biggest champions, and nowadays he himself is among the strongest, and fights for GC victories in the GTs… And he is so old, now… But he seems to become better, the older he gets.

Good for Italy, of course. He embodies the spirit of the Nibali days, and makes us feel nostalgic… :)