This stage reminds me of passo di stelvio stage at the giro 2020.Amateur hour. Shameful by both RCS and the local authorities if it's pulled.
As far as the stage is concerned, it's not a great route for the breakaway tbh, so I'll go with Roglic taking the stage and with it, the pink. Probably small gaps between the best 5 or so climbers and then, assuming CdC is actually raced, big gaps behind them.
Kuss will drop almost everybody on croix coeur with roglic on his wheel, like rohan dennis did.