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Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 19: Longarone – Tre Cime di Lavaredo 183 km (Friday, May 26th)

From @Eshnar's excellent 2023 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/2023-giro-ditalia-stage-by-stage-analysis.38851/#post-2828631


Stage 19: Longarone – Tre Cime di Lavaredo 183 km

Friday, May 26th, 11:35 – 17:10 CEST



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Technical Overview:

The queen stage, finally. A grueling high mountain raid in the Dolomites, the type of stage every Giro should have. From Longarone, on the Piave River, the day will start with a long neutralized section down the valley before the actual start in Fortogna. The riders will then follow the Piave until Belluno, at which point they will head north into the Dolomites. The road will only slightly rise at first, going upstream along the Cordevole valley. All in all, 44 km of gentle uphill roads will bring to the intermediate sprint of Caprile, the town at the foot of Passo Fedaia, but unfortunately we are not headed there. Instead, the peloton will keep north through very tough false flat and a few minor climbs, including one of 1.5 km at 8% and one of 3.5 km at 7.1%, before they hit the first categorized climb of the day, Passo di Campolongo (GPM2, 3.9 km at 7%), one of the Sella Ronda peaks. The descent is very short and twisty up to the town of Corvara in Badia, after which it devolves into a descending false flat to reach La Villa, where the next climb begins. Passo Valparola (GPM1, 14.1 km at 5.6%) is a tough climb at a relatively high altitude, a statement that will only get more accurate for each of the following climbs of this stage. It starts as an irregular climb, with 9% ramps scattered here and there, and then becomes a very consistent climb with the last 6 km at 8% average. The top is at 2192m above sea level and at 71 km to go… but the fun has just begun. The descent is basically straight down until the Passo Falzarego, where the riders will turn south and the descent becomes quite technical. There is no respite at the bottom: the uncategorized Colle Santa Lucia (2.2 km at 7.5%) and its equally short descent leads to the next climb, one of the most famous of all the Dolomites. The mighty Passo Giau (GPM1, 9.9 km at 9.3%), with its very regular and very steep slopes will be one of the key points of this stage and perhaps of the whole Giro. It starts at 49 km to go and ends at 40.5, plus the peak is at 2236m above sea level. Its descent is long and technical, so GC riders will have to consider that too. At the bottom there is also the intermediate sprint of Cortina d’Ampezzo, at 22 km to go. There is no flat here, as the road will rise again immediately once out of town, to head towards one of the most iconic climbs the Giro has to offer. But first, the Passo Tre Croci (GPM2, 7.9 km at 7.2%), with its top at 13.5 km to go, will bring the riders onto a 6.5 km false flat section along the Lake of Misurina, the last breath before the grand finale. The legendary climb to the Tre Cime di Lavaredo (GPM1, 7.2 km at 7.6%) will decide the winner (if still necessary), not with its puny overall statistics, tainted by the first irregular section, but with its killer final section of 4 km at 11.7% bringing to the 2304m above sea level of Rifugio Auronzo, where the finish line is located, like always.

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The Climbs:

Passo di Campolongo
: GPM2, 3.9 km at 7%

One of the four passes of the famous Sella Ronda, it is a short and fairly easy one, but is preceded by some really hard terrain.

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Passo Valparola: GPM1, 14.1 km at 5.6%

Quite irregular but does get tough towards the end.

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Passo Giau: GPM1, 9.9 km at 9.3%

One of the greatest climbs of the Dolomites, last time it was ridden we barely saw live pictures of it. Hopefully this year will be different. It is a rather short but really hard climb, always between 9-10%, and the altitude, even if not sky high, will also play a factor.

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Passo Tre Croci: GPM2, 7.9 km at 7.2%

A medium sized climb that at this point of the stage (and of the race) will surely do a lot of damage. See below for the profile.



Tre Cime di Lavaredo: GPM1, 7.2 km at 7.6%

Possibly the most iconic finish of the Dolomites, its very steep gradients, high altitude and stunning views will be one of the key points of this Giro. Last time the race came here was in 2013 under the snow.

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What to Expect:

All out GC battle obviously, the only question is from which point. Tomorrow is still a big day but letting this one pass would be a grave mistake. I would expect at least a significant selection on the Giau, and maybe a desperate attacks from a top 5 contender. For any pure climber, this is it. They have to make it count.

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Vincenzo Nibali winning on the Tre Cime di Lavaredo, Giro 2013
 
Beat me by a minute.

Sepp Kuss to do his duty to America, by vanquishing the evil British Empire, stomping 7 hp/lbs of glorious freedom units on Tre Cime di Lavaredo with his Slovenian sidekick in his back pocket. Sepp Kuss will win this bike race and earn the ultimate prize of getting off @Libertine Seguros' shitlist.
"Watcha gonna do, if Roglamania runs wild on you, brother?!"
 
Honestly, it’d be funny if Thomas now lost 20 seconds today while Almeida and Rolgic finish together. Any of the top three teams can attack this stage and their leader gain time. I’m still hoping we get into the MTT and they’re all within 10 seconds of the other.

What are the odds of one of the top three attacking on the second climb?
 
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Honestly, it’d be funny if Thomas now lost 20 seconds today while Almeida and Rolgic finish together. Any of the top three teams can attack this stage and their leader gain time. I’m still hoping we get into the MTT and they’re all within 10 seconds of the other.

What are the odds of one of the top three attacking on the second climb?

You don't need 10s between top 3 before stage 20 TT to be open/interesting. First 5 km of the TT climb has average gradient of 15,3 %. Even Pogacar wouldn't sleep easy with less than 2 min advantage. It's gonna be brutal.
 
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I think Roglic smelled blood and wants a hard race tomorrow.

I think the opposite. Roglič has a bigger chance to make a gap on the final climb if the stage before is ridden easily. When the race is hard the whole day over a lot of climbs he usually loses his powerful kick. And then Almeida and G outgrind him like on Tuesday. But if they reach the bottom of Tre Crocci relatively fresh - then Jumbo should pace full on. For Roglič short and intensive effort is far more likely to bear fruit than a prolonged endurance effort.
 
I think that one thing that is being underdiscussed is that the insane gradient climbs have been generating smaller differences the past 5 or so years. Zoncolan from Ovaro had only 42 seconds from first to sixth in 2018. Angliru had 26 seconds from first to seventh in 2020. Mortirolo produced very little between the main guys bar Roglic in 2019. Behind that, Sierra de Bernia (final 3.5k at 14.2%) had six (!) seconds from first to fifth in Valenciana in 2020. Les Praeres bucked the trend in 2022, but only because Evenepoel put half a minute into everyone - the next four GC riders were within 18 seconds of each other, and in 2018 there were only 19 seconds from first to seventh.

Bottom line - the days of the best climbers putting a minute or more into each other on this kind of climb seem to be over. Yes, a MTT is different, but I expect only 30 seconds to 1 minute between the first and last of Thomas, Roglic and Almeida on Lussari unless one of them impersonates either the Roglic or the Pogacar of the (not that comparable) Planche TT. And probably even less on Tre Cime if Giau isn't raced properly.
 
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I think that one thing that is being underdiscussed is that the insane gradient climbs have been generating smaller differences the past 5 or so years. Zoncolan from Ovaro had only 42 seconds from first to sixth in 2018. Angliru had 26 seconds from first to seventh in 2020. Mortirolo produced very little between the main guys bar Roglic in 2019. Behind that, Sierra de Bernia (final 3.5k at 14.2%) had six (!) seconds from first to fifth in Valenciana in 2020. Les Praeres bucked the trend in 2022, but only because Evenepoel put half a minute into everyone - the next four GC riders were within 18 seconds of each other, and in 2018 there were only 19 seconds from first to seventh.

Bottom line - the days of the best climbers putting a minute or more into each other on this kind of climb seem to be over. Yes, a MTT is different, but I expect only 30 seconds to 1 minute between the first and last of Thomas, Roglic and Almeida on Lussari unless one of them impersonates either the Roglic or the Pogacar of the (not that comparable) Planche TT. And probably even less on Tre Cime if Giau isn't raced properly.
People stopped pacing the famous steep climbs like idiots. Meanwhile, on Les Praeres they forgot the memo and paced it like complete idiots.

For Angliru there should be something to be said for murderpacing the easy first 3rd, but then somehow the domestiques are never strong enough to do that there because domestiques just commit suicide on Cordal already.
 
People stopped pacing the famous steep climbs like idiots. Meanwhile, on Les Praeres they forgot the memo and paced it like complete idiots.

For Angliru there should be something to be said for murderpacing the easy first 3rd, but then somehow the domestiques are never strong enough to do that there because domestiques just commit suicide on Cordal already.
Isn’t it also the gearing changes that allow spinning up the steepest climbs also a factor?
 
People stopped pacing the famous steep climbs like idiots. Meanwhile, on Les Praeres they forgot the memo and paced it like complete idiots.

For Angliru there should be something to be said for murderpacing the easy first 3rd, but then somehow the domestiques are never strong enough to do that there because domestiques just commit suicide on Cordal already.
I wanna see someone murderpace the first 2km of the Zoncolan and really sprint into the first super steep ramp!:D
 
Isn’t it also the gearing changes that allow spinning up the steepest climbs also a factor?
Yeah, the things that Tre Cime and Mont du Chat did to you with those absurd gears in the early 70ies made it a different sport.
Makes me respect my father even more for climbing stuff like Tre Cime and the Großglockner with 42x23 in the early 80ies while being 77kg (built like Francesco Moser).
 
My wish (fantasy) would be for Ineos, JV, and UAE to decide to commit a couple of riders to keep the breakaway close, and then have showdown on Tre Cime enabling one of the top three to take the stage win.
But because of the bonus seconds I don’t think they (particularly Ineos, would be willing to do that.
 

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