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Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 9: Savignano sul Rubicone – Cesena 35 km ITT (Sunday, May 14th)

From @Eshnar's excellent 2023 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/2023-giro-ditalia-stage-by-stage-analysis.38851/#post-2828620

Stage 9: Savignano sul Rubicone – Cesena 35 km ITT

Sunday, May 14th, 13:10 – 17:10 CEST



Technical Overview:

The Giro crosses the Rubicon, literally but also a bit figuratively, as the GC riders will have to cast their dice today. A pan flat, decently long ITT in the middle of a Giro is a rare sight these days… The route is quite straightforward, although there are some twisty sections inside towns, but overall there is no doubt this is an ITT for pure specialists. There will be three checkpoints dividing the route in four section, the last two being far shorter than the first. From Savignano, the road heads north first, where the riders will actually cross the Rubicon at around km 10, in spite of the fact that the start is just a few hundred meters from it. After the first checkpoint, the route will head south-west towards Cesena and after a small section in the city, which hosts the highest point of this stage (a whopping 44m above sea level), it will go north again towards the finish line just outside of town.


What to Expect:

Specialists will put minutes into the pure climbers, no question.


The Rubicon “river” as it looks today.
Can’t decide which would be better for Roglic, 1 or 2 minutes. On the one hand, if it’s 1 minute Remco likely will catch him, which would be demoralizing plus provide a great incentive to Remco. On the other hand, based on what we saw from Roglic in WC ITT a few years ago, he might limit the losses to just 1 minute in that scenario out of pride and sheer will.

If it’s 2 minutes, the carrot likely won’t be there for Remco, but Roglic won’t have one either.
Judging by the first TT the difference between Remco and Rogla is about 2 sec/km (70 seconds). The speed gap between them tomorrow can be different though. I tend to think it will actually be smaller. My guess is somewhere between 40 and 60 seconds.

I tend to agree- i am not sure the seconds per/km remco took in first tt is a great indicator for this one. Remco clearly favourite and will take time on the others, but tt is 9 days in, some have come through unscathed like Thomas others have crashed.

Would not be surprised if Thomas/Roglic in the 30s/45s range. Of course if Remco is on a super day and others not so maybe a little more but would be surprised if it is over a minute to Roglic/Thomas.
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Can‘t believe Remco will beat Primoz by more than a minute tomorrow.

Lance beat Jan normally in 50kms TTs by circa one minute.

If Primoz has a super good day tomorrow, Primoz could even win the stage and wear Pink on the first rest day.
Roglic winning a flat TT against Remco or Kung doesn't sound very realistic, even with a super day