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You did. And it's true
with 10% better CdA you get 3% higher speed at 450W output and the same mass. When wind is 10m/s, you get 10% higher speed.I missed the fact that all of them would get slowed down by the exact same amount of speed. Somehow I felt that the faster riders would lose more speed than the slow ones…
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After crossing the Rubicon there is really no going back. On how the favorites will perform tomorrow. Likely the differences to be smaller then one might expect based on the stage 1 results. A gap of three minutes in between favorites start times is in my opinion a good thing.
Getting the pacing right is likely something to consider. Mid third maybe with a bit higher cadence and easier gear. Compared to highest gear through the duration of the ITT. We'll see.
Getting the pacing right is likely something to consider. Mid third maybe with a bit higher cadence and easier gear. Compared to highest gear through the duration of the ITT. We'll see.
Could you get a more vanilla TT course ? Just a matter of how much time the rest concede to Remco. Going to look like like a third week GC after this re the time gaps. Hopefully Roglic stays somewhat in touch.
And he should beat frigging TGH and at least match Almeida tbh. That's all what I am asking for.
Given the headwind expected, I can see Remco taking ~90 seconds from Rog.
He's not taking 2-3 minutes. This would need to be something like the 2015 giro TT for that to occur (along with the expected headwind)
He's not taking 2-3 minutes. This would need to be something like the 2015 giro TT for that to occur (along with the expected headwind)
So, let's say you ride into a headwind with an open umbrella, you assume the time difference vs riding into the same headwind without an open umbrella, would be the same compared to a situation where there is no wind? Try it out and let us know how it went
You don’t need a degree in mathematics to know that aerodynamics have more of an effect into a headwind than a neutral or tailwind
Roglic seemed to struggle pushing the giant gears on the first TT - or maybe it's the TT position effected by his surgery. His cycling seemed strained.
After the morale boosting on stage 8 and a week of racing I'd expect a better performance. Remco and Thomas (sans gilet) otherwise to fill out the podium. I don't know how often Remco has done 9 straight days of racing but I can't see him puting minutes into the other two (Roglic & Thomas).
Pozzovivo to continue his steady move up the GC standings.
After the morale boosting on stage 8 and a week of racing I'd expect a better performance. Remco and Thomas (sans gilet) otherwise to fill out the podium. I don't know how often Remco has done 9 straight days of racing but I can't see him puting minutes into the other two (Roglic & Thomas).
Pozzovivo to continue his steady move up the GC standings.
Its not the 9 days of racing that is the problem for Remco, its his injury on his leg that gives him problems. But in the end it doesn't matter, i agree him taking 50seconds again on Roglic (like the vuelta) would already be seen as very good (1.5s/km). (In the vuelta last year, 31km, it was an unexpected big advantage, called a demolishing when he took 48s). Not sure why some of us are expecting the double of that. (especially with the situation he is in).
I didn't notice any changes on his TT bike with Roglic, but he does look slimmer, so I'm guessing his power output is bit less. (or he has been riding suboptimal TT parcours this whole year since he always struggled with flat ITT and it gives the impression he is worse than normal.)
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It can be illustrated with a simplified example where aerodynamics is the only resistance in play, just to make clear the direction of the advantage.
When there's no wind, Remco can ride on the flat with 55 km/h (= 65.45 s/km), and Rogla will lose 1.5 s/km, thus his speed will be 53.77 km/h (= 66.95 s/km).
With the simplifying assumption that they'll push the same watts in the longer duration when there's a headwind, the functions to calculate their power will in both scenarios be equal, thus we can find their speed with a headwind of 20 km/h by using the drag equation.
Remco with a headwind = 42.54 km/h = 84.63 s/km
Rogla with a headwind = 41.33 km/h = 87.10 s/km
Pace difference with a headwind = 2.47 s/km
So now Remco gains an additional second per km of ITT.
When there's no wind, Remco can ride on the flat with 55 km/h (= 65.45 s/km), and Rogla will lose 1.5 s/km, thus his speed will be 53.77 km/h (= 66.95 s/km).
With the simplifying assumption that they'll push the same watts in the longer duration when there's a headwind, the functions to calculate their power will in both scenarios be equal, thus we can find their speed with a headwind of 20 km/h by using the drag equation.
Remco with a headwind = 42.54 km/h = 84.63 s/km
Rogla with a headwind = 41.33 km/h = 87.10 s/km
Pace difference with a headwind = 2.47 s/km
So now Remco gains an additional second per km of ITT.
The biggest problem in those estimations is the fact that rolling resistance is proportional to velocity while aerodynamic drag to the second power of velocity. So if their contribution changes then proportions can change as well. In your formula above rolling resistance is needed as well plus after P * efficiency only cyclingspeed is needed (it's from P = F * v which can be formulated as P = τω). To see how exactly things change one would have to do computations (I could program it but too lazy to do it now).
I mean headwind > slower > rolling resistance decreases > total % of air resistance > aero merchant big happy should speak for itself
Tbh 41-42kph with a block headwind still seems very slow to me for a fresh effort on TT bikes. People still do 30 kph on city bikes without gears on Dutch headwind championships a.k.a the real 6th monument.
Tbh 41-42kph with a block headwind still seems very slow to me for a fresh effort on TT bikes. People still do 30 kph on city bikes without gears on Dutch headwind championships a.k.a the real 6th monument.
I did the computations yesterday (check one of my later posts). I used manual bisection. I was surprised how simple it was in the end - everyone goes slower for the exact same amount which is that of wind speed. Long story short: Remco wins😁
By the way - rolling resistance is the m * g * crr * … part of the equation. I only ignored gravity force (cause it’s flat) and accelerative force (cause we are assuming constant speed)
normally it should be Almeida today. He isn't ITT champ
Doesn't surprise me that they do that. 30 kph sounds very fast though, I could never go that fast in a big headwind on a fricking citybike
Given how easily TGH and Thomas bridged back to him yesterday, I would be careful to deduce Roglic being in super form from his performance. I would expect a flying Roglic keep or even extend that initial gap to those two in this type of climb. Mostly Remco was on a weaker day yesterday, either because of the after effects of his crashes or for some other reason. The big question regarding today's stage for me is how much or if at all is Remco's TT-ing compromised.
Good news for Roglic, I think he’ll perform better in the rain compared to Remco
If that's the case, risk taking and crashes might be the most important factor. I hope we get a fair battle.
Easy? They were hanging on for dear life over the top and on the descent and could barely take a pull
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