Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-Stage Analysis

[Gigs_98]

Every year I'm amazed how much this thread gets me into the Giro mood. I cannot wait for the race to begin. We haven't had a great edition in a while (thinking about it, all 4 races from 2015 to 2018 were arguably better than any of the 4 editions since) but there is still such a nostalgic place in my heart for this race. And with the most exciting gc field since at least 2019, maybe we will finally have a great Giro again.

On another note, after the 2020 PdBF fiasco, how far ahead of Evenepoel does Roglic have to be going into stage 20, for us to be really confident he will win it?

 

[King Of The Wolds]

@Eshnar 's Giro preview is literally one of the highlights of my year. As ever, thanks for your amazing work!

 

[Red Rick]

Every year I'm amazed how much this thread gets me into the Giro mood. I cannot wait for the race to begin. We haven't had a great edition in a while (thinking about it, all 4 races from 2015 to 2018 were arguably better than any of the 4 editions since) but there is still such a nostalgic place in my heart for this race. And with the most exciting gc field since at least 2019, maybe we will finally have a great Giro again.

On another note, after the 2020 PdBF fiasco, how far ahead of Evenepoel does Roglic have to be going into stage 20, for us to be really confident he will win it?

It's not that similar to PdbF and it's really more like Monte Grappa '14. PdbF was like 70/30 between TT bike and climb, this will be more like 33/67. It's also debatable how much Roglic underperformed and how much Pogacar just crushed all expectations. Mabye it's like 1 minute each?

MTTs are very hard to predict and gaps can be surprisingly big sometimes, and sometimes they're suprisingly small. It also depends on what happens on the days before, but generally I don't think that in MTTs the best climber in the race randomly bonks. So it depends on how Roglic gets an advantage. If he's the better climber all Giro I'm more comfortable with 1'30 than if it's even on all but one stage but Evenepoel has one random bonk that loses him 3 minutes with him being down 1'30 before the ITT as a result.

In general my ball park figure would be 1'30 but then I would still be a neurotic *** on the day of the ITT cause that's just how I watch cycling.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Regarding the MTT possibly producing negative racing on stage 19: it could also work in a weirdly positive way. If Remco and Roglic are close on GC, maybe they are obsessed with watching each other and trying to expend as little energy as possible before stage 20, and a rider or 2 who are a few minutes behind are given some leeway for a long range attack and maybe it sticks. Of course whoever that outsider is still has to be strong late in the race and be willing to go all in for the win rather than race conservatively for 3rd, but I think a Carapaz type 2019 coup (with Roglic and Nibali watching each other) could be possible, especially if jumbo and quick step are not able to boss the peloton by week 3.

 

[Gigs_98]

Regarding the MTT possibly producing negative racing on stage 19: it could also work in a weirdly positive way. If Remco and Roglic are close on GC, maybe they are obsessed with watching each other and trying to expend as little energy as possible before stage 20, and a rider or 2 who are a few minutes behind are given some leeway for a long range attack and maybe it sticks. Of course whoever that outsider is still has to be strong late in the race and be willing to go all in for the win rather than race conservatively for 3rd, but I think a Carapaz type 2019 coup (with Roglic and Nibali watching each other) could be possible, especially if jumbo and quick step are not able to boss the peloton by week 3.

I mean yeah, you can never entirely rule something like this out, but I don't think 2019 is a good comparison for what you are describing.

People always forget why Nibali and Roglic stared at each other in the first place. It wasn't because they were so close in the gc, it was because Nibali was quite a bit behind Roglic, and nobody thought Nibali could win it in a straight fight. Nibali wanted to force Roglic to work because he sure as hell wouldn't gain two minutes by pulling him to the finish. Roglic likely would have done as Nibali wished, but at the time only he knew he was already past his peak and straight up couldn't counter Carapaz. I remember after the Courmayeur stage the narrative was very much "Roglic is giving away the Giro, while Nibali had put Roglic in a position where he was now vulnerable". It was only in the third week when we realized it was actually Nibali who had given away the Giro.

I think the much better precedent for what you are describing is Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali gifting Pinot an entire minute on stage 18 of the 2017 giro. That didn't end up backfiring, but considering Pinot only finished the giro a bit over a minute behind Dumoulin in 4th, it's almost surprising it didn't cost at least one of those 3 a podium.

 

[Gigs_98]

It's not that similar to PdbF and it's really more like Monte Grappa '14. PdbF was like 70/30 between TT bike and climb, this will be more like 33/67. It's also debatable how much Roglic underperformed and how much Pogacar just crushed all expectations. Mabye it's like 1 minute each?

MTTs are very hard to predict and gaps can be surprisingly big sometimes, and sometimes they're suprisingly small. It also depends on what happens on the days before, but generally I don't think that in MTTs the best climber in the race randomly bonks. So it depends on how Roglic gets an advantage. If he's the better climber all Giro I'm more comfortable with 1'30 than if it's even on all but one stage but Evenepoel has one random bonk that loses him 3 minutes with him being down 1'30 before the ITT as a result.

In general my ball park figure would be 1'30 but then I would still be a neurotic *** on the day of the ITT cause that's just how I watch cycling.

I mean yeah, but so what? Do you think had that Tour stage been the Grappa TT instead, Pogacar wouldn't have won the Tour?

 

[Jungle Cycle]

ALELUIA!!

Eshnar; where do i deposir??

 

[Red Rick]

I mean yeah, but so what? Do you think had that Tour stage been the Grappa TT instead, Pogacar wouldn't have won the Tour?

It matters a lot if you want to overextrapolate from one TT 3 years ago, unless you don't wanna think any more details beyond "yeah he lost the Tour in the final ITT in 2020 so he'll probably lose the Giro in identical fashion 3 years later."

That stage is a lot different if it's a Monte Grappa ITT, and yes, Pogacar still very likely wins, but a lot of other references of that TT change a whole lot. The surprise of that ITT was because Roglic was seen as the better TTer, not because he was seen as the much better climber. After 40 minutes of ITTing, your climbing performance will be affected if you're having a bad day in the ITT position. It's not for no reason basically no rider did a good flat split and a bad climb split compared to their own expectations apart from Dumoulin who made the 400 IQ decision to do the climb on a TT bike.

So it's much more like an MTT, which makes it much better to look at MTTs to make predictions about results.

 

[titan31]

As someone who'd like Roglic to win, I look at that MTT in dread based on the Tour one. Hopefully it doesn't happen again to him.

 

[Bonimenier]

As someone who'd like Roglic to win, I look at that MTT in dread based on the Tour one. Hopefully it doesn't happen again to him.

Don't worry, he won't be in pink starting the MTT.

 

[titan31]

Don't worry, he won't be in pink starting the MTT.

Ah, he's got a great chance. Jumbos team is stronger imo (although a lot will depend on what Kuss shows up) so if they can attack Remco on the multi mountain stages, they could do some damage. Get someone like Foss up the road on the Crans Montana stage and have Kuss hammer it up on Croix de Couer, and use Foss then on the flat.

I don't fancy anyone other than Roglic or Remco to contend the GC unless something odd happens

 

[Netserk]

Ah, he's got a great chance. Jumbos team is stronger imo (although a lot will depend on what Kuss shows up) so if they can attack Remco on the multi mountain stages, they could do some damage. Get someone like Foss up the road on the Crans Montana stage and have Kuss hammer it up on Croix de Couer, and use Foss then on the flat.

I don't fancy anyone other than Roglic or Remco to contend the GC unless something odd happens

Tratnik is the only rider on the squad who can fulfil that role.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Great thread Eshnar thanks. Stage 15 the stage for Masnada. And stage 19 the stage where Tao Geoghen wins the giro

 

[Escarabajo]

What is the probability that Stage 20 will change the pink jersey? 50-50%? There is probably a high probability that it will change hands. The last TT at the Tour usually do not change anything, most of the times. But this one is so crazy that can even change the podium as well! I am not sure if this stage cancels the other stages, which is not right. Hope it doesn't.

 

[houtdffan]

Ah, he's got a great chance. Jumbos team is stronger imo (although a lot will depend on what Kuss shows up) so if they can attack Remco on the multi mountain stages, they could do some damage. Get someone like Foss up the road on the Crans Montana stage and have Kuss hammer it up on Croix de Couer, and use Foss then on the flat.

I don't fancy anyone other than Roglic or Remco to contend the GC unless something odd happens

then what happens when Remco goes to the front and sets a tempo that nobody can follow? Doesn't matter how strong your doms are if they cannot follow Remco on the climbs

 

[gregrowlerson]

I mean yeah, you can never entirely rule something like this out, but I don't think 2019 is a good comparison for what you are describing.

People always forget why Nibali and Roglic stared at each other in the first place. It wasn't because they were so close in the gc, it was because Nibali was quite a bit behind Roglic, and nobody thought Nibali could win it in a straight fight. Nibali wanted to force Roglic to work because he sure as hell wouldn't gain two minutes by pulling him to the finish. Roglic likely would have done as Nibali wished, but at the time only he knew he was already past his peak and straight up couldn't counter Carapaz. I remember after the Courmayeur stage the narrative was very much "Roglic is giving away the Giro, while Nibali had put Roglic in a position where he was now vulnerable". It was only in the third week when we realized it was actually Nibali who had given away the Giro.

I think the much better precedent for what you are describing is Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali gifting Pinot an entire minute on stage 18 of the 2017 giro. That didn't end up backfiring, but considering Pinot only finished the giro a bit over a minute behind Dumoulin in 4th, it's almost surprising it didn't cost at least one of those 3 a podium.

I think I was more attempting to describe that the course might create a similar racing outcome, rather than the circumstances to 2019 being similar. Having said that, I don't even recall the exact details of that race without going back to it.....I don't think that Carapaz was all that far behind on time when he made his decisive time gain, but he just wasn't seen as a serious threat to the two favourites; plus you also had the issue of was he even the team leader (or Landa) issue to factor in. So assuming that Roglic and Remco are both strong, perhaps I am imagining more of a Contador and Schleck trackstand's situation, except that when they did that it wasn't far from the finish, so there wasn't a threat for them to lose much time, whereas I think stage 19 can be intriguing if guys like TGH and Vine get up the road with still 30-50 kms to go, and the two favourites are looking at each other.

Well, for that to happen then Remco probably has to be feeling less than 100%, as most likely he'll just ride from the front in any questionable situation regardless.

 

[Berniece]

Ah, he's got a great chance. Jumbos team is stronger imo (although a lot will depend on what Kuss shows up) so if they can attack Remco on the multi mountain stages, they could do some damage. Get someone like Foss up the road on the Crans Montana stage and have Kuss hammer it up on Croix de Couer, and use Foss then on the flat.

I don't fancy anyone other than Roglic or Remco to contend the GC unless something odd happens

That tactic only works if you are the strongest of the attackers. If Kuss goes and TGH or Thomas join him, Jumbo is in trouble.

 

[theyoungest]

then what happens when Remco goes to the front and sets a tempo that nobody can follow? Doesn't matter how strong your doms are if they cannot follow Remco on the climbs

Tell that to Pogacar

I don't think Jumbo's team is stronger than Quickstep's though. Most of them were in Catalunya as well and there they were clearly outclassed by Quickstep. If Foss or Gesink doesn't make it to the Giro and is replaced by the reserve Tom Gloag it will actually be an improvement.

 

[Red Rick]

What is the probability that Stage 20 will change the pink jersey? 50-50%? There is probably a high probability that it will change hands. The last TT at the Tour usually do not change anything, most of the times. But this one is so crazy that can even change the podium as well! I am not sure if this stage cancels the other stages, which is not right. Hope it doesn't.

It's not even close to 50%. No stage ever has that probability before the race even starts. And besides I think the Tre Cime stage the day before is more decisive.

The only way it 'should' be the most decisive stage is if you think that fresh efforts have bigger gaps than fatigued efforts in some way or if theres some unique way in which relative recovery should be more important for a 45 minute TT than a road stage, because there are some clear examples of harder climbs like Angliru or Zoncolan not having gigantic gaps between the top 5.

 

[Berniece]

Tell that to Pogacar

I don't think Jumbo's team is stronger than Quickstep's though. Most of them were in Catalunya as well and there they were clearly outclassed by Quickstep. If Foss or Gesink doesn't make it to the Giro and is replaced by the reserve Tom Gloag it will actually be an improvement.

Pogacar wasn’t the strongest, Vingegaard was, which makes a huge difference . If you’re the strongest climber it makes sense your team creates a high pace

 

[Netserk]

What is the probability that Stage 20 will change the pink jersey? 50-50%? There is probably a high probability that it will change hands. The last TT at the Tour usually do not change anything, most of the times. But this one is so crazy that can even change the podium as well! I am not sure if this stage cancels the other stages, which is not right. Hope it doesn't.

Under 20 %. The strongest rider will wear pink before the stage.

 

[Netserk]

It's not even close to 50%. No stage ever has that probability before the race even starts.

I think stage 4 is thereabout. When stage 1 is not an ITT, the first one will more likely than not see a change of the leader.

 

[Red Rick]

I think stage 4 is thereabout. When stage 1 is not an ITT, the first one will more likely than not see a change of the leader.

You're right. I was thinking about later in the race and not the less decisive changes earlier in the race.

Like you have actually stages where it's almost 100% if stage 1 is just a flat sprint and stage 2 is a TT or a hilly stage

 

[Netserk]

In the 2014 Tour, the only realistic chance for no change between stage 1 and 2 would have been if Sagan won the first stage and defended on the following stage. Or if a break made it in stage 1 with the strongest rider also winning the stage.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Masnada out of QS squad. Oh dear.