Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-Stage Analysis

[SafeBet]

As always, very helpful thread. Thank you @Eshnar.
I like the route a lot.

 

[acm]

Masnada out of QS squad. Oh dear.

That's weird, maybe he's sick... he didn't start the last stage of Romandie.
I also wonder what is going on with Gesink and Foss.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I hope both Rogla and Evenp can stay on their bikes as healthy for 3 weeks and provide a really close battle for the maglia rosa.

 

[Escarabajo]

Masnada out of QS squad. Oh dear.

I fear for Ilmaestro!!!
I guess he was out of shape as opposed to Serry.

 

[Escarabajo]

It's not even close to 50%. No stage ever has that probability before the race even starts. And besides I think the Tre Cime stage the day before is more decisive.

The only way it 'should' be the most decisive stage is if you think that fresh efforts have bigger gaps than fatigued efforts in some way or if theres some unique way in which relative recovery should be more important for a 45 minute TT than a road stage, because there are some clear examples of harder climbs like Angliru or Zoncolan not having gigantic gaps between the top 5.

You are right. In real probabilistic numbers there is no way that is that high. Especially when you consider it from the beginning. I was just thinking about gaps maintaining close, and especially with Roglic following wheels all the time, so I am a bit afraid that the Giro will be ruined by this. But let's hope for the best Giro and with no weather stage cancellations.

BTW, for some reason I love to watch that stage 20 from the Tour for the face reactions from other riders, but I hate so much that things like this happen. For some reason I just don't like to erase the whole race just for just a climb. My opinion.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Thanks for the effort invested in crating this thread. It's now official. The Giro is happening!

 

[Berniece]

I fear for Ilmaestro!!!
I guess he was out of shape as opposed to Serry.

They don't only look at the shape. Serry is known to keep moral high

 

[Red Rick]

You are right. In real probabilistic numbers there is no way that is that high. Especially when you consider it from the beginning. I was just thinking about gaps maintaining close, and especially with Roglic following wheels all the time, so I am a bit afraid that the Giro will be ruined by this. But let's hope for the best Giro and with no weather stage cancellations.

BTW, for some reason I love to watch that stage 20 from the Tour for the face reactions from other riders, but I hate so much that things like this happen. For some reason I just don't like to erase the whole race just for just a climb. My opinion.

That's the thing about this MTT, I don't think it should dominate the 3 week strategy as much as everyone seems to think. It's more like a mid tier MTF to me.

It's a hard MTT, but it's more a curiousity than a queen stage

 

[YavorD]

Initially I didn't like the second week, but when I think about it, exactly the "easier" second week can be the key for stage 13 to deliver. Being place efter 3 easier stages and right before a non-GC stage it has the perfect place to deliver long-range attacks or at least a maaassive selection on Croix de Coeur.

I'm also not too positive about attacks on Giau in stage 19. Even in a vacuum, Tre Cime is a really tough finish and more often than not it will be all about Tre Cime. And with that ridiculous TT up to Monte Lussari, where one can lose a minute if he struggles, on the next day will decrease the chances of attacks on Giau even further.
My only hope is that the best climber in the race is 2-3 minutes behind and has the ambitions/balls to go from far.


P. S. I don't like the field for this route so much. And in-form top tier climber (say Hindley, Landa, Carapaz, even Simon or MAL) is missing and my only hope goes to Tao and Ineos. Bahrain has a very strong team, but I don't believe any of the is good enough to contest for the win.

Edit: I forgot Carthy. I don't trust him either, but I hope he has Vuelta 2020 legs.

 

[Sciatic]

Initially I didn't like the second week, but when I think about it, exactly the "easier" second week can be the key for stage 13 to deliver. Being place efter 3 easier stages and right before a non-GC stage it has the perfect place to deliver long-range attacks or at least a maaassive selection on Croix de Coeur.

I'm also not too positive about attacks on Giau in stage 19. Even in a vacuum, Tre Cime is a really tough finish and more often than not it will be all about Tre Cime. And with that ridiculous TT up to Monte Lussari, where one can lose a minute if he struggles, on the next day will decrease the chances of attacks on Giau even further.
My only hope is that the best climber in the race is 2-3 minutes behind and has the ambitions/balls to go from far.


P. S. I don't like the field for this route so much. And in-form top tier climber (say Hindley, Landa, Carapaz, even Simon or MAL) is missing and my only hope goes to Tao and Ineos. Bahrain has a very strong team, but I don't believe any of the is good enough to contest for the win.

Edit: I forgot Carthy. I don't trust him either, but I hope he has Vuelta 2020 legs.

And Nairo!

 

[CyclistAbi]

I don't feel that stage 20 will have such an effect on the racing dynamics prior to it. If we look at Tour 2020, as reference, there was some serious racing before the stage 20. Stage 17 comes to mind. So whoever is behind, still having a shot at the win, will for sure try. On every opportunity presented.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Another wonderful Giro preview. Thank you Eshnar!

 

[Rob5091]

Thanks for the preview - always a welcome addition for the race.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't feel that stage 20 will have such an effect on the racing dynamics prior to it. If we look at Tour 2020, as reference, there was some serious racing before the stage 20. Stage 17 comes to mind. So whoever is behind, still having a shot at the win, will for sure try. On every opportunity presented.

It depends on what the differences will be before the MTT i think. The climb itself is a lot more steep than PdBF and even longer as well. Unless a direct rival for a GC position is showing weakness, i could see riders prefer a conservative effort the day before. Let's say numbers 1 and 2 in GC are only 25 seconds apart, who is going to risk going deep and perhaps pay the price the next day. I only see that happening in case one can sense the other is vulnerable and potential gain is substantial. If the gap is 2 minutes or larger however, they would need to attack before the MTT because the gaps on the MTT will probably not be that big, even if the one who is trailing is superior on that day.

 

[Mayomaniac]

It depends on what the differences will be before the MTT i think. The climb itself is a lot more steep than PdBF and even longer as well. Unless a direct rival for a GC position is showing weakness, i could see riders prefer a conservative effort the day before. Let's say numbers 1 and 2 in GC are only 25 seconds apart, who is going to risk going deep and perhaps pay the price the next day. I only see that happening in case one can sense the other is vulnerable and potential gain is substantial. If the gap is 2 minutes or larger however, they would need to attack before the MTT because the gaps on the MTT will probably not be that big, even if the one who is trailing is superior on that day.

On the other hand there is a lot less kms before the climb in the MTT compared to PdBF (11kms of flat vs 30kms with some rolling terrain), so fatigue before the climb/the effect of riding long in your TT-position on your climbing legs will be less of a factor.

 

[Berflamand]

Ganna vs Dennis vs Remco in the opening TT will be an interesting test with an eye on the WC ITT which is a big goal for all three of them.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ganna vs Dennis vs Remco in the opening TT will be an interesting test with an eye on the WC ITT which is a big goal for all three of them.

I would be surprised if Dennis comes close. Not due to a lack of talent, just that since his last WCC title four years ago, he has only won 1 WT TT.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It depends on what the differences will be before the MTT i think. The climb itself is a lot more steep than PdBF and even longer as well. Unless a direct rival for a GC position is showing weakness, i could see riders prefer a conservative effort the day before. Let's say numbers 1 and 2 in GC are only 25 seconds apart, who is going to risk going deep and perhaps pay the price the next day. I only see that happening in case one can sense the other is vulnerable and potential gain is substantial. If the gap is 2 minutes or larger however, they would need to attack before the MTT because the gaps on the MTT will probably not be that big, even if the one who is trailing is superior on that day.

On the other hand and regardless of the differences. You will just have to try in the last couple of stages. To even see what is the difference before stage 20. So if we won't see much action before stage 20. That in my opinion will signal that one of the riders is too strong.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I would be surprised if Dennis comes close. Not due to a lack of talent, just that since his last WCC title four years ago, he has only won 1 WT TT.

Probably Küng instead of Dennis, I can see him fighting for the stage win.

 

[BR2]

I suppose the gaps in the top 10 will be huge in the end.

 

[Valv.Piti]

If freaking Passo Giau and Tre Cime di Lavaredo is being softpedalled, I will fill in my 45th complaint to RCS and let them know I want them to fire Mauro Vegni immediately!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Probably Küng instead of Dennis, I can see him fighting for the stage win.

Completely forgot Küng was doing the Giro. He's definitely a contender. I think between Evenepoel and Roglic, it suits Evenepoel better, but not sure how his GT weight will impact his performance vs Ganna and Küng on a flat TT.

 

[YavorD]

If freaking Passo Giau and Tre Cime di Lavaredo is being softpedalled, I will fill in my 45th complaint to RCS and let them know I want them to fire Mauro Vegni immediately!

It's rather unlikely they softpedal Tre Cime. Just too steep and at the end of the Giro.
Giau on the other hand may very well be raced like Kolovrat last year. Both climbs are similar actually (without the altitude).

 

[Mayomaniac]

If freaking Passo Giau and Tre Cime di Lavaredo is being softpedalled, I will fill in my 45th complaint to RCS and let them know I want them to fire Mauro Vegni immediately!

They could have done an easier uphill TT from Tarvisio to Sella Nevea as the final gc stage, but nope...

 

[BR2]

If freaking Passo Giau and Tre Cime di Lavaredo is being softpedalled, I will fill in my 45th complaint to RCS and let them know I want them to fire Mauro Vegni immediately!

If they do that the teams are to blame.