Tour de France 2023 Tour de France: Best of the Rest?

[Hihope]

Mas and Carapaz out. O'Connor very bad.

Gaudu clearly better than in Dauphiné, Simon Yates is very much in play.

*** Adam Yates
** Gaudu, Simon Yates
* Hindley, Landa, Skjelmose

And Pinot? (asking of betale of Tonton)

 

[Hihope]

And Pinot? (asking of betale of Tonton)

On behalf of

 

[Pantani_lives]

Carapaz and Mas were #3 and #4 on my list of favorites. After their crash it looks even more like a two horse race.

Gaudu and Hindley are now the biggest favorites for the third place. They'll gradually improve their GC by just following.

Landa has a tradition of losing time in the first week, but he had a good start this time. He might take revenge for missing the podium by one second in 2017.

Adam Yates will sacrifice himself, but Simon might ride for the GC. The problem is that he often gets a bad day in the high mountains after his aggressive racing in the first two weeks. I expect him in the top 10, but a podium seems too optimistic.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Mas and Carapaz out. O'Connor very bad.

Gaudu clearly better than in Dauphiné, Simon Yates is very much in play.

*** Adam Yates
** Gaudu, Simon Yates
* Hindley, Landa, Skjelmose

Ugh, I really disagree with this one. Adam Yates has proven that he really isn't the GT-rider that some people thought he was. He was good in Dauphine and was good yesterday, but that shouldn't be enough to be considered the favorite for top-3.

I'd go Hindley at this point with Carapaz and Mas out.

*** Hindley
** Landa, Rodriguez
* Gaudu, Simon Yates, Skjelmose/Adam

 

[Netserk]

It's good to disagree! I have more faith in Gaudu (whom I also voted for) than the twins, but I think they both deserve a bump after yesterday.

 

[Salvarani]

Ugh, I really disagree with this one. Adam Yates has proven that he really isn't the GT-rider that some people thought he was. He was good in Dauphine and was good yesterday, but that shouldn't be enough to be considered the favorite for top-3.

I'd go Hindley at this point with Carapaz and Mas out.

*** Hindley
** Landa, Gaudu
* Rodriguez, Simon Yates, Skjelmose/Adam

I think you are underestimating Adam Yates season until now. He was been very good/consistent. Few problems.

In his last three GTs he has "at least" finished in top 10, on all three occasions. 4th being his best placement, which was in 2021. Arguably, the best season of his career until now?

This move to UAE seems to have been very good for him.

2nd in Dauphine, ahead most of all the names here... except for Skjelmose who won Tour de Suisse, seems to me he is in great form. Will it last three weeks? Who knows, but dismissing or saying he is not a proven GT-rider is pretty harsh and false. He should be considered as decent/solid one. An outsider for the win, behind the best.

The "problem" for Yates is that he is on the same team as Pog, who is undoubtably the leader until something out of the ordinary happens.

 

[Valv.Piti]

And I went for a Gaudu-Rodriguez switch as well, but thats probably more wishful thinking than based on reality. But I really do think he can do something great, but maybe its a year or two too early also considering his probably not optimal prep. But he was looking really good yesterday on terrain not that suited for him, and I do think he will only get better.

One thing though, the top-10 is a lot more cheap already after just one day. Carapaz and Mas are easy top-10 riders and my two favorites for 3rd and 4th, so that changes everything. People saying Skjelmose would top 5 for example look a lot more sane now, and its very realistic honestly.

 

[Netserk]

I think Skjelmose will either finish in the lower half of the top-10 (maybe 5th as well, but it would really surprise me) or more likely tank come the Alps.

 

[Escarabajo]

Skjelmose is looking a lot better than just a lower top 10 to me. Maybe I am over-estimating him, but He is looking really good.

 

[Netserk]

Skjelmose is looking a lot better than just a lower top 10 to me. Maybe I am over-estimating him, but He is looking really good.

This is his terrain. Alps are a whole different matter.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think Skjelmose will either finish in the lower half of the top-10 (maybe 5th as well, but it would really surprise me) or more likely tank come the Alps.

6-10th or completely out, agree. I tend to think more the latter, but realistically nobody really has a clue how good he is.

 

[HelloDolly]

The more I see him the more Iike Skjelmose for the podium ...very vert good

 

[Gratemans]

6-10th or completely out, agree. I tend to think more the latter, but realistically nobody really has a clue how good he is.

My gut says the same. But that's because I've been watching cycling for about 20 years now, and my expectation of rider development is still influenced by how they used to gradually rise through the ranks back in the day. Those youngsters nowadays have a tendency to do some amazing stuff though so I wouldn't be surprised if he hangs on and ends up 5th or something like that.

 

[Tonton]

And Pinot? (asking of betale of Tonton)

Of course I want him to win every stage . But I don't think that Thibaut seriously aims at a podium finish. Losing time today could be a good thing before Wednesday and Thursday. One KOM candidate is showing his face. Pog and Vingo scored today: thre is work to do to keep the objective a possibility.

Gaudu did OK, and why is no one mentioning Bardet? He had a good day. We all love Landa but I can't see it. Adam will have to Dom eventually. It's wide open.

 

[Netserk]

Gaudu and Simon Yates have really dropped the ball today.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

So, at the end of week two, it looks like third place is between Rodriguez and Yates (the Adam variety).

5 out of 148 of us voted for Adam Yates, and although it's possible that many of the 'Other' votes were for Rodriguez, only Laarsland (who voted for Carapaz) spoke in favour of him being a viable choice. Others didn't even place him in the top three of Ineos contenders.

So, assuming and hoping that nothing catastrophic happens to the top two, who do we now think will be 'best of the rest': Rodriguez, Yates, or someone else to make a late challenge?

I'll say Yates (A), assuming that he is given license to make a proper effort in the Time Trial and that he doesn't do too much damage to his stamina in service of Pogacar on Wednesday or Saturday.

 

[Netserk]

While I went with the riders who had the lowest odds as options in the poll, I'm quite happy that I highlighted Rodriguez as a viable podium contender.

 

[SHAD0W93]

If Hindley can recover from the crash he can make a good run at 3rd. Rodriquez has been really strong and if Movistar get him for real they have their replacement and don’t have to rely on Mas so much. Adam will probably fall down to 5th helping Pog like Kreuziger in 13 unless he keeps finishing higher up on the stages or Pog/Vinge completely cracks.

 

[gunara]

My pick went from brilliant at the start, to totally wrong few days later, and lately to not bad at all. Hell knows how he will hold in the 3rd week riding for other with so much at stake. Whatever happen next, it's the most impressive two weeks Adam Yates has ever showed to the world, all he's left to do now is to let me get a prediction right for once.

Wouldn't mind Rodriguez though.

 

[movingtarget]

The TT will probably decide third spot. Yates is looking good on the climbs but Rodriguez always manages to minimize the damage.Also depends on how much Pogacar's team value having two on the podium although Yates does most of his work at the tail end of stages anyway. Still have the feeling that either of them could have an off day yet. Hindley has started to leak time and will probably lose more in the TT to the riders ahead of him. Hard to know how much of Hindley's form is from fatigue or just the injury, maybe both. The rest day should help him and the short TT.

 

[gunara]

Seriously nobody won't reanimate the thread? Some people got it right!

 

[Red Rick]

Not gonna lie, crazy to me how low Yates was rated for this.

 

[jaylew]

Netserk wins. He had Adam and then Simon on the next tier.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Netserk wins. He had Adam and then Simon on the next tier.

True that, I thought they’d finish 4-6th position but the twins rode very well.

 

[staubsauger]

Not gonna lie, crazy to me how low Yates was rated for this.

Yeah he already improved at Ineos from his solid, but sometimes rather mediocre years at Orica. Looked exzellent on Thyon 2000 earlier this year.

I noticed all of that and still rated him low. Incomprehensible.