Tour de France 2023 Tour de France rest day 1 poll-Who will win the GC?

[Pantani_lives]

• Strong points for Pogacar: acceleration uphill, good form curve, tenacity, good time trial.
• Doubts for Pogacar: Lack of competition before the Tour, a bad day in the Alps is possible, his team isn't the strongest.
• Strong points for Vingegaard: strongest team, specialist of the high mountains, the Col de la Loze should suit him.
• Doubts for Vingegaard: Form curve possibly going down, not as explosive on steep ramps.

For the third place the Yates brothers and the Ineos duo can still overtake Hindley. Some teams must regret that they didn't chase the Australian when he was in the break.

This is what my top 10 prognose looks like, compared to before the Tour:

(1) 1. Pogacar
(2) 2. Vingegaard
(8) 3. S. Yates
(/) 4. Pidcock
(/) 5. Rodriguez
(6) 6. Hindley
(/) 7. A. Yates
(5) 8. Gaudu
(/) 9. Bardet
(/) 10. Meintjes

Sepp Kuss could easily stay in the top 10, but he probably won't bother. The crash of Carapaz and Mas remains deplorable.

 

[solo80k]

Jonas overestimated his power on Tourmalet but I think the race is far from over.

 

[dercuforever]

After Marie Blanque, I really though that the Tour was over.
Vingegaard has now shown 3 time a similar level : MB, end of Tourmalet and Puy de Dôme.
This level feels a bit higher than last year and also higher than anything Pogacar has done in a Tour. What support this ? Better than any data, facts that several "direct" opponents are dropped by minutes in a matter of few kms each time.
BUT, Pogacar now has shown he can reach that level, and then go even further beyond. This is (to me) a significant improvement from Pog 2021-2022 Tour.
Can he repeat the same level for the remaining of the tour ? If so, unless Vingegaard somehow crack him, he will win the Tour.
I read a lot of people telling Pog is advantaged on steep stuff, he is not, due to being heavier.
I see no reason Vingegaard can crack him by going tempo on 7/8%, and attacks will probably only go Pogacar's way because the overall pace will be lower and Pogacar has more punch.

There must be an explaination for MB (maybe a bit sick ?)
Maybe what UAE said in 2021 is true : we have not seen Pogacar final level yet. Maybe we finaly see that now.

Anyway, what a Tour we have.
There is also a huge suspense for the podium. Will the 3rd finish within 15 min of the winner ?

 

[saunaking]

Have you seen Jonas' face on Puy de Dome?
He's finished

 

[Carols]

Sticking with Jonas but it'll be a grand battle

 

[Lequack]

Rest day

And how they used to do it

 

[VO2 Max]

It was the all-out assault on the Tourmalet with the attempt at a Granon repeat backfiring on Cauterets which has blown some holes in Jumbo's TdF.

Pog will only ever focus on Vingegaard & nothing else.

Seemed on Tourmalet/Cauterets that Jumbo still had some concern over Hindley's level and had half an eye on eliminating him, not just the pure focus on the key duel that Pog had, and it cost them. On Granon WvA waited for the Roglic group, and maybe this time it should have been the same to get Kuss back up and reset their formation to go again on the last climb. But Kuss is with Hindley, so Wout rides hard in the valley for Ving instead. And once Wout was last man then from fairly early on the climb the writing seemed to be on the wall. Pog in contrast is thinking only about Jumbo and gets a big momentum swing in his favour.

For me it's Pogacar from here. He has the confidence, the legs and a clearer head. Jumbo need a major regroup and rethink on this rest day.

 

[Peter von]

Tough to call, Pogi seems like he is on fire atm or maybe it's Jonas who is just not, but the rest day might be a god send for Team Jumbo, bring back some focus, reevaluate their strategy, and stop letting their leader fend for himself on sprint stages*!
But at the same time I think Jumbo management might be stressed up to their ears atm, the risk of no stage wins and no GC win has all of a sudden become very real for them, they need to chill and not let that get to them.
Jumbo has the stronger team, but it has a price the few stages where it's all hands on deck for Wout can cost precious enegy for Vingegaard when he doesn't have a pilot to make sure he is on the right side of a split. But maybe we have seen the last of those stages and the coming Wout chances will be from the break away.

If Pogi is just in slightly better form, which is the easiest explanation, I reckon he will punch a gap of 30s + on the ITT and they should probably bet on that over bonus seconds at UAE. They have two stage wins and now they need to get Jumbo to kill themselves before the last week.

*ok it only happened on Saturday, but that was the day before a tough MTF

 

[Rob5091]

Pogacar blew up himself in 2021 (Ventoux) and 2022 (Grannon) so let's see if he's learnt from his past. Vingegaard did n't have the legs on stage 9 - his team set him up and ... nothing. Everyone in the group stopped and looked at each other and Pidcock (I think) of all people went to the front briefly.
Robbie McEwan says
"There must be a point where Jumbo-Visma go 'OK, we're going to try something different. Even though we've got the yellow jersey, we're going to try and put one rider in the break, we're going to try and stress UAE out a little bit, we're not going to take the responsibility, we're going to chuck it all on them and make their life hard'," he concluded.

 

[topcat]

Why is there no option for Roglic in the poll?

 

[theyoungest]

Seemed on Tourmalet/Cauterets that Jumbo still had some concern over Hindley's level and had half an eye on eliminating him, not just the pure focus on the key duel that Pog had, and it cost them. On Granon WvA waited for the Roglic group, and maybe this time it should have been the same to get Kuss back up and reset their formation to go again on the last climb. But Kuss is with Hindley, so Wout rides hard in the valley for Ving instead. And once Wout was last man then from fairly early on the climb the writing seemed to be on the wall. Pog in contrast is thinking only about Jumbo and gets a big momentum swing in his favour.

For me it's Pogacar from here. He has the confidence, the legs and a clearer head. Jumbo need a major regroup and rethink on this rest day.

Yes, in hindsight they should have let the group return and let Kelderman and Kuss set a higher pace on the final climb than Van Aert is capable of. Because that is what they're always trying to do, and what makes some people consider them arrogant or overconfident, but is actually just what they consider the only way to eliminate Pogacar: make the pace so high that he doesn't have too much of an acceleration left. Which is what they were doing yesterday as well, not trying to gain time but to lose as little time as possible on a stage that suits Pogacar.

The whole psychological advantage thing I don't really believe in. Vingegaard is a different personality than Pogacar, less outgoing, but that doesn't mean he's less confident. Yes, he used to be, but now I think he doesn't really care that much about Pogi's shenanigans or the fact that most people prefer Pogi over him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Jumbo sending a team of physicians to Sarah De Bie's door as we speak, in order to prevent her from delivering the baby early.

 

[fbjim]

I think Jonas wins this but it's much closer than any point last year.

I think a big question is if UAE's riders peak in the last week like they did last year - Kuss is clearly a big asset for Jonas, so it'd be interesting to see what happens if the UAE guys get on their 2022 Pyrenees form.

 

[theyoungest]

Jumbo sending a team of physicians to Sarah De Bie's door as we speak, in order to prevent her from delivering the baby early.

Honestly I don't think Van Aert really is the decisive factor in their Tour chances. The one helper they really cannot do without is Sepp Kuss.

 

[Amazinmets87]

There should be two polls. One for the yellow jersey and a second for the last step on the podium.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

@Lequack , good old times when Pou Pou and Monsieur Chrono played checkers between stages! Imagine Teddy and Skeletor doing this today. Impossible!

 

[Kaptain Kool]

It's amazing how many posters (including myself) have voted for Pogacar considering he has probably just under a 50% chance to win. Backlash against J-V after all of the non-stop Belgian Pozzato pointless showboating? I mean, we understand already, he has nice hair.

 

[Lequack]

Lanterne rouge duo have some fun

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoMwqwRFVio

 

[Cookster15]

Pogacar blew up himself in 2021 (Ventoux) and 2022 (Grannon) so let's see if he's learnt from his past. Vingegaard did n't have the legs on stage 9 - his team set him up and ... nothing. Everyone in the group stopped and looked at each other and Pidcock (I think) of all people went to the front briefly.
Robbie McEwan says
"There must be a point where Jumbo-Visma go 'OK, we're going to try something different. Even though we've got the yellow jersey, we're going to try and put one rider in the break, we're going to try and stress UAE out a little bit, we're not going to take the responsibility, we're going to chuck it all on them and make their life hard'," he concluded.

McEwan's comment I don't get. UAE and Pog will simply ignore any attack other than Vingegaard himelf. I think now we see Vingegaard has way more pressure on his shoulders fighting a fresher, smarter and soon stronger Pogacar. By the time we get to stages that supposedly suit Vingegaard, Pogacar will likely be at an even higher level - so they are running out of time to strike.

I think JV are in big trouble and they know it. But of course they will put a positive spin on things and try. Maybe a long range attack like Andy Schleck 2011? It would be a Vingegaard we have never seen before.

 

[ManicJack]

I went with Vingo because he has by far the stronger team. JV needs to figure out what to do with that strength or it definitely swings towards Pogacar.