2023 Tour de France route rumors

[Libertine Seguros]

Of course. But there isn't a guarantee that much more ITT would have made the route better. It isn't even more likely than not.

The most important aspect of a GT route is mountain stages which creates incentives for attacking further out than the last few kms. Then comes length and total amount of height meters on mountain stages, sequence of the stages and then the amount of ITT.

A stage which would appear to fulfil this is this one:

It came in the middle of week 3. It has all the ingredients. And yet, somehow, some way, the riders steadfastly refused to make the race.

I think that's part of why the 2012 Giro is rated so poorly, actually - unlike the 2012 Tour which was always going to be heavy on the TT, the route gave the chances. But without significant gaps on GC and with a péloton too scared of losing to try to win, they just couldn't be incentivised to take any risks at all.

 

[Extinction]

Let us always remember what the incomparable Badger, Bernhard Hinault, said: "As long as I breath, I attack!" Fer Chrissake!

 

[OlavEH]

It came in the middle of week 3. It has all the ingredients. And yet, somehow, some way, the riders steadfastly refused to make the race.

I think that's part of why the 2012 Giro is rated so poorly, actually - unlike the 2012 Tour which was always going to be heavy on the TT, the route gave the chances. But without significant gaps on GC and with a péloton too scared of losing to try to win, they just couldn't be incentivised to take any risks at all.

Yep, the riders need to follow up on the incentive created by the stage design. That doesn't always happen. But there should be at least of couple of stages (or more) like this in every GT, and especially in the Giro and partially the Tour where the options are better than in Spain.

A stage with Finestre/Sestriere or Moritirolo/Aprica would provide a lot of action at least 9 of 10 times.
A stage like the one over and similard would probably provide action perhaps 7-8 of 10 times.
While a stage like a Fedaia or Col de la Loze MTF would at least 8-9 of 10 times mean that the riders waited until the last 5-6 km for big attacks.

So while it's not a guarantee, good stage design would certainly provide much more action than the opposite.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yep, the riders need to follow up on the incentive created by the stage design. That doesn't always happen. But there should be at least of couple of stages (or more) like this in every GT, and especially in the Giro and partially the Tour where the options are better than in Spain.

A stage with Finestre/Sestriere or Moritirolo/Aprica would provide a lot of action at least 9 of 10 times.
A stage like the one over and similard would probably provide action perhaps 7-8 of 10 times.
While a stage like a Fedaia or Col de la Loze MTF would at least 8-9 of 10 times mean that the riders waited until the last 5-6 km for big attacks.

So while it's not a guarantee, good stage design would certainly provide much more action than the opposite.

I do agree that a summit finish is the worst use of Fedaia (FEDAIAAAAAA!!!), and I think the stages where it has been used ahead of Pordoi, Sella, Gardeccia and elsewise compared to the 2008 and 2022 MTFs backs me up on that, so it should be mid-stage or penultimate climb à la the 2002 stage to use it best - unless there is the possibility of an MTT. An MTT is the best use of Fedaia because then it takes up the whole broadcast of the stage.

 

[JosefK]

So, Remco to the Giro, then.

 

[pman]

We've said this before but I guess it's worth repeating, the 2022 Tour was exciting because the belief was there that Pog's attacks might work. Clearly the belief was misplaced either because Pog's form, the heat, his lack of teammates or simply because Ving and Jumbo were too strong.

That same race run a second time isn't nearly as exciting. Don't get me wrong, I'd love constant action, long ITTs, etc. I'd also love for balanced teams but that's not the reality we live in. Our sport has a few super teams and then teams that are just trying to be good at what they're good at. I know I am a minority in this but I do think crafting a route that keeps the GC race close is an important and challenging task in a sport where super teams often arise.

I think this route tries to balance all of those things. Is it perfect? No. But back to the question of the route favoring French riders. If it does, is that a bad thing? Whether it's FDJ with Gaudu or even a non French rider like Bora with Hindley (who I think this route really benefits), finding a way to get more riders involved in the GC race is a key aspect of making the race more interesting, imho. I totally respect that many of you disagree. Could that lead to defensive riding? Sure it can. But you know what can also lead to defensive riding? One guy with a 5 minute lead on everyone, while 5 guys are within 2 minutes of the podium. The former might be poor racing and exciting, the latter imho can still lead to poor racing. Seeing guys race defensively or offensively for a top 3 or a top 5 or a top 10 is much less interesting than a GC battle. Plus, I go back to the fact that this course has exciting stages throughout. Add a fierce well planned three stage sequence in the Alps and you have a good enough Tour route, imho.

 

[Extinction]

Whether it's FDJ with Gaudu or even a non French rider like Bora with Hindley (who I think this route really benefits), finding a way to get more riders involved in the GC race is a key aspect of making the race more interesting, imho.

The best way to get more riders involved is to have the GC disciplines well balanced, not 56,000 meters of climbing and only 22,000 meters of TTing. Gaudu and Hindley don't stand a chance even with 100,000 meters of climbing and 0 of TTs.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think this route tries to balance all of those things.

I think a lot of people's problem stems from achieving that balance by removing things from the scales until everything stacks up. The mountain stages offer less time, so the TT mileage is reduced to balance that, rather than shifting the measures to balance, or increasing the mountain difficulties to allow for more TT mileage, so even if the parcours is balanced, it's with less on both sides.

You know, just like a 0-0, a 1-1 and a 3-3 match are all draws, but while a 0-0 can be a really good game, 1-1 is likely to be better, but on average the majority of people, at least neutral fans, are going to want to watch the highest scoring one.

 

[Red Rick]

I think a lot of people's problem stems from achieving that balance by removing things from the scales until everything stacks up. The mountain stages offer less time, so the TT mileage is reduced to balance that, rather than shifting the measures to balance, or increasing the mountain difficulties to allow for more TT mileage, so even if the parcours is balanced, it's with less on both sides.

You know, just like a 0-0, a 1-1 and a 3-3 match are all draws, but while a 0-0 can be a really good game, 1-1 is likely to be better, but on average the majority of people, at least neutral fans, are going to want to watch the highest scoring one.

Gotta be fair Libertine, they ramped the flat stages way up

 

[SHAD0W93]

17 - mountain stage to Cortina: 6 riders finishing together, Tiralongo which was just a few seconds from podium loses important time.

Of the two, Kreuziger lost the important time considering he was team leader, more recent top 10s, and finished ahead of Tiralongo on the next mountain stages.

 

[Netserk]

I think a lot of people's problem stems from achieving that balance by removing things from the scales until everything stacks up. The mountain stages offer less time, so the TT mileage is reduced to balance that, rather than shifting the measures to balance, or increasing the mountain difficulties to allow for more TT mileage, so even if the parcours is balanced, it's with less on both sides.

You know, just like a 0-0, a 1-1 and a 3-3 match are all draws, but while a 0-0 can be a really good game, 1-1 is likely to be better, but on average the majority of people, at least neutral fans, are going to want to watch the highest scoring one.

I think the main driver of the change is the desire to have "potential GC-action" more often and throughout the three weeks of the race. Coupled with the desire for a close battle, it has led to the transition from two mountain blocks to a tapas route of many small meals.

2006 and 2007 were vastly different to next year's route, but I don't think "less of everything" describes the differences that well.

 

[pman]

I think the main driver of the change is the desire to have "potential GC-action" more often and throughout the three weeks of the race. Coupled with the desire for a close battle, it has led to the transition from two mountain blocks to a tapas route of many small meals.

2006 and 2007 were vastly different to next year's route, but I don't think "less of everything" describes the differences that well.

I totally agree with this. This route is definitely a tapas route of many small meals. It's not the T-Bone steak some people want. The tapas close does come from the desire to have potential GC action more often.

Though the 0-0 football match point is also fair. Personally I think a 0-0 game is one of the most exciting things in sports. Difference of opinion I suppose. But I agree, most people prefer a 5-5 game. My original point is that most people prefer a 0-1 game over a 6-3 game.

 

[postmanhat]

The best way to get more riders involved is to have the GC disciplines well balanced, not 56,000 meters of climbing and only 22,000 meters of TTing. Gaudu and Hindley don't stand a chance even with 100,000 meters of climbing and 0 of TTs.

Really? Off the top of my head in recent years can think of Wiggins, Froome, Dumoulin and Evenopoel as TTer's who then became good climbers. As opposed to the vast majority of GC riders who are climbers that basically try to limit their losses in TTs.

And now we're in a situation where the two best climbers are also two of the best TTers in a GT. So why add more TT miles to exacerbate the difference between them and the rest? The organisers have to think about keeping the race interesting for a TV audience which this forum represents maybe 50% at best, in terms of knowledge and subsequent viewing experience. Not forgetting the sponsorsof teams other than Jumbo or UAE.

 

[Netserk]

Really? Off the top of my head in recent years can think of Wiggins, Froome, Dumoulin and Evenopoel as TTer's who then became good climbers. As opposed to the vast majority of GC riders who are climbers that basically try to limit their losses in TTs.

And now we're in a situation where the two best climbers are also two of the best TTers in a GT. So why add more TT miles to exacerbate the difference between them and the rest? The organisers have to think about keeping the race interesting for a TV audience which this forum represents maybe 50% at best, in terms of knowledge and subsequent viewing experience. Not forgetting the sponsorsof teams other than Jumbo or UAE.

Because differences are good. More distance is better. The sooner the B-list of contenders are eliminated, the better.

 

[Extinction]

Really? Off the top of my head in recent years can think of Wiggins, Froome, Dumoulin and Evenopoel as TTer's who then became good climbers. As opposed to the vast majority of GC riders who are climbers that basically try to limit their losses in TTs.

And now we're in a situation where the two best climbers are also two of the best TTers in a GT. So why add more TT miles to exacerbate the difference between them and the rest? The organisers have to think about keeping the race interesting for a TV audience which this forum represents maybe 50% at best, in terms of knowledge and subsequent viewing experience. Not forgetting the sponsorsof teams other than Jumbo or UAE.

First, Evenepoel is both an excellent TTer, if you ask me, the best among GT guys (and among the top 3-5 in the world), AND a fantastic climber (you don't win the Vuelta on mediocre climbing). Second, the Tour in particular should prize the best all-rounder, for which a decent TT is necessary to fit that bill. Lastly, the issue isn't about exacerbating the difference between them and the rest, but putting them to under pressure. That's what makes for a great race, two champions beating the crap out of each other, which then maybe opens the door for a courageous and strong opportunist to strike.

 

[pman]

Really? Off the top of my head in recent years can think of Wiggins, Froome, Dumoulin and Evenopoel as TTer's who then became good climbers. As opposed to the vast majority of GC riders who are climbers that basically try to limit their losses in TTs.

And now we're in a situation where the two best climbers are also two of the best TTers in a GT. So why add more TT miles to exacerbate the difference between them and the rest? The organisers have to think about keeping the race interesting for a TV audience which this forum represents maybe 50% at best, in terms of knowledge and subsequent viewing experience. Not forgetting the sponsorsof teams other than Jumbo or UAE.

That was also part of my original point. We're all super fans or we wouldn't be posting on a cycling forum in late October. The Tour isn't the Tour because only super fans watch it. It's such a big global event because casual fans watch. They're not watching to follow a Tour with a 5 minute gap in GC.

 

[Netserk]

That was also part of my original point. We're all super fans or we wouldn't be posting on a cycling forum in late October. The Tour isn't the Tour because only super fans watch it. It's such a big global event because casual fans watch. They're not watching to follow a Tour with a 5 minute gap in GC.

Do you think the 2017 Tour was popular among casual fans? I think the 2015 edition had greater appeal.

 

[staubsauger]

That was also part of my original point. We're all super fans or we wouldn't be posting on a cycling forum in late October. The Tour isn't the Tour because only super fans watch it. It's such a big global event because casual fans watch. They're not watching to follow a Tour with a 5 minute gap in GC.

They're watching for the entertainment that is the Tour de France.

Small gaps resulting in Hindley, Gaudu & Mas stalk each other for 3rd spot on the general classification is no entertainment.

In the 90's cycling was bigger than ever before or after in the mainstream. That's when there were gaps due to TT miles and riders like Richard Virenque & Marco Pantani were forced to go on memorable mountain escapes that created big entertainment.

@Libertine Seguros is 100% correct.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I totally agree with this. This route is definitely a tapas route of many small meals. It's not the T-Bone steak some people want. The tapas close does come from the desire to have potential GC action more often.

Though the 0-0 football match point is also fair. Personally I think a 0-0 game is one of the most exciting things in sports. Difference of opinion I suppose. But I agree, most people prefer a 5-5 game. My original point is that most people prefer a 0-1 game over a 6-3 game.

I‘d rather have a 6-3 although the majority may prefer the 0-1

 

[Valv.Piti]

What are you guys talking about? I think there are lots and lots of opportunities if you want to gain time. Were first and foremost talking Joux Plane and Col de la Loze, and coupled with the Pyrenean stages, Puy de Dome, Grand Colombier, Mont Blanc and Ballon + Platzerwezel, there's more than enough. Thats 8 actual mountain stages.

 

[postmanhat]

They're watching for the entertainment that is the Tour de France.

Small gaps resulting in Hindley, Gaudu & Mas stalk each other for 3rd spot on the general classification is no entertainment.

In the 90's cycling was bigger than ever before or after in the mainstream. That's when there were gaps due to TT miles and riders like Richard Virenque & Marco Pantani were forced to go on memorable mountain escapes that created big entertainment.

@Libertine Seguros is 100% correct.

The Indurain years were the absolute nadir of the sport for me. I was much more of a casual fan then and completely lost interest. Hopelessly cheering on Bugno, Chiapucci, even Rominger, unitl at the next ludicrously long TT, Miguel smashed everyone by minutes. Such a boring period in GT cycling. He never won a stage in five TDF wins, apart from TTs.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I totally agree with this. This route is definitely a tapas route of many small meals. It's not the T-Bone steak some people want. The tapas close does come from the desire to have potential GC action more often.

Though the 0-0 football match point is also fair. Personally I think a 0-0 game is one of the most exciting things in sports. Difference of opinion I suppose. But I agree, most people prefer a 5-5 game. My original point is that most people prefer a 0-1 game over a 6-3 game.

Most neutrals will prefer a 6-3 over a 0-1 because of guaranteed entertainment value, but fans of the relevant teams in those scenarios would rather be losing 1-0 (chance to get in the match) or winning 6-3 (comfortable lead). The more important the match, the more willing people are to tolerate a dull game, because everything that happens is more important, and also a low scoring match can often be better that way because the result is always in jeopardy. There can be some very good 0-0 games. But there are also many, many 0-0 games where the only loser is football. Even with some of the best players and managers in the world. Mourinhoball springs to mind.

 

[Red Rick]

What are you guys talking about? I think there are lots and lots of opportunities if you want to gain time. Were first and foremost talking Joux Plane and Col de la Loze, and coupled with the Pyrenean stages, Puy de Dome, Grand Colombier, Mont Blanc and Ballon + Platzerwezel, there's more than enough. Thats 8 actual mountain stages.

Ofcourse there's a lot of opportunities if you're the best in the race. But there won't be a lot of need to attack either. This Giro had a lot of opportunities to attack for example. There is little to force gaps between Pogacar and Vingegaard. A strong team can control these stages until the final few km of climbing.

I guess that at least the TT isn't the final GC day

 

[KZD]

As for the women's route, the difference when compared with the men's route couldn't be bigger. There is a flattish TT, only one mountain stage with a pathetic length but a few nice hilly stages, particularly the Rodez one that could cause some carnage (177km is longer than the monuments so its a step in the right direction and the kind of stage that we are missing on the men's side). I think they are hoping that someone matches Van Vleuten in the hills and so that the race is only decided in the final weekend, hopefully in the TT but I am sure she will just ride away from everyone in the Tourmalet.

 

[Lequack]

Some fun photos.

Tour de France riders take to trishaws before Singapore criterium - Gallery

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/tour-de-france-riders-take-to-trishaws-before-singapore-criterium-gallery/