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2023 Tour de France route rumors

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...It's also a course designed to keep the race tight, possibly even up for grabs for 20.

and therefore encourages defensive riding.

thankfully pog will be there to light it up no matter what.

i am still waiting for prudhomme and all the supporters of one-dimensional climbers as GC contenders to point to a GT where it was exciting because a bunch of riders had been "kept in play" for 20 days. i cannot even think of one.

probably the closest that comes to mind is the 2017 Giro where four riders contended the last ITT within striking distance. but guess what? that only happened because there was an ITT in the second week as well that gave Dumo a shot and forced the others to try and recoup their losses in the mountains throughout the race.

so again, when exactly has little to no ITT and keeping second-tier GCers superficially in play longer made the racing more exciting? when?

never.

so why is that the constantly expounded theory? stated as if fact? when the data suggests that the opposite is true.

and the irony that had they plugged in even a modicum of TT kms they may have enticed remco to come and that would definitely had made it way more exciting.
 
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What I don't think enough people are saying which is important is that routes need to be designed with the GC guys of the moment in mind. I love ITTs, I've made that clear, but during the Froome years I was ok with the trend towards light ITTs because it made for a more exciting race because there was just about only 1 GC guy who could climb and time trial.

Now, we have a bunch of all rounders. Pog's only weakness besides his own aggression seems to be the ability to keep pace on giant watt heavy climbs, maybe recovery and maybe the heat. Ving hasn't shown any weaknesses but then again he's won 1 major race in his career so we really don't know what his weakness is.

However, those two are great time trialists and great (different) climbers. Both have super strong teams. This is a great route to make them go at each other, day in and day out. In the hills, in the mountains and potentially even on the flat in a stage like 19. If you throw in a team like Ineos with someone like Bernal or one of the French climbers or a Bora guy like Hindley, now you're looking at a fabulous course design.

I don't love the route but as Prudhomme has said, he has designed a route that is designed for all the GC guys. He can't help that we live in an era where two guys seem above everyone else. If both show up in good shape, it's a great route. If neither show up in great shape, it's a great route. If only one shows up strong then no route would have made it exciting---did you see how much Pog won by in 21 and how much Ving won over the 3rd place guy this year? It's a route designed for those two while still enticing other mountain goats to hang around until probably stage 16 or 17. The more I think about the route, the more I like it. Not because it looks pretty or is a pure test of cycling but because it's designed to fit the stars of the sport.

I for one can't wait to see what an improved UAE can do on this course. Those two teams could cause a real battle in this thing.

I don't believe that a course should be designed around who is riding (for example to have Contador and Schleck's Tours only have 10 kms of ITT), but I get your point.

And I strongly believe that Hindley should go all in at this Tour. With 2022 Giro form he has a strong chance of a podium and outside chance of victory.

Roglic should join Remco at the Giro imo.
 
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and therefore encourages defensive riding.

thankfully pog will be there to light it up no matter what.

i am still waiting for prudhomme and all the supporters of one-dimensional climbers as GC contenders to point to a GT where it was exciting because a bunch of riders had been "kept in play" for 20 days. i cannot even think of one.

probably the closest that comes to mind is the 2017 Giro where four riders contended the last ITT within striking distance. but guess what? that only happened because there was an ITT in the second week as well that gave Dumo a shot and forced the others to try and recoup their losses in the mountains throughout the race.

so again, when exactly has little to no ITT and keeping second-tier GCers superficially in play longer made the racing more exciting? when?

never.

so why is that the constantly expounded theory? stated as if fact? when the data suggests that the opposite is true.

and the irony that had they plugged in even a modicum of TT kms they may have enticed remco to come and that would definitely had made it way more exciting.

I understand your point. I think we might be conflating exciting with high quality. A GC battle that goes down to stage 20 is exciting in my opinion because on any given day, a rider could fold or even the smallest move within a final k could determine the outcome. Champions League Final, anything can happen. Does that lead to defensive riding? You bet. So I kind of agree with you. But I also kind of agree with Prudhomme. I am a super fan, I'll watch it no matter what is happening with the GC. However plenty of people will only watch it if the race is close.
 
You must have loved the Giro this year.

Haha. Yeah, that's the prototypical example of exciting while not high quality. I did enjoy it. I am sure most don't agree but I rather watch a race that comes down to Stage 20 with several riders having a chance to win the race than watch a race where attacks happen every day but the same guy just keeps pounding everyone in GC. Don't get me wrong, I love high quality racing but I am not going to pretend like I don't like GC battles that are close. I do. I am a big fan, as we all probably are. Imagine the so-so fans. They watch A)to see someone from their country do well and or B) see a close GC race. Prudhomme is trying to deliver that with this route. Maybe it'll backfire and Ving will win by 8 minutes and we'll get boring stages and a blowout GC but on some level, I don't fault CP for trying to keep this race exciting until stage 20. Minority opinion, I know.
 
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Haha. Yeah, that's the prototypical example of exciting while not high quality. I did enjoy it. I am sure most don't agree but I rather watch a race that comes down to Stage 20 with several riders having a chance to win the race than watch a race where attacks happen every day but the same guy just keeps pounding everyone in GC. Don't get me wrong, I love high quality racing but I am not going to pretend like I don't like GC battles that are close. I do. I am a big fan, as we all probably are. Imagine the so-so fans. They watch A)to see someone from their country do well and or B) see a close GC race. Prudhomme is trying to deliver that with this route. Maybe it'll backfire and Ving will win by 8 minutes and we'll get boring stages and a blowout GC but on some level, I don't fault CP for trying to keep this race exciting until stage 20. Minority opinion, I know.
Did you enjoy the 2012 Giro? After all, that came down to the final day, but is widely touted as one of the dirt worst GTs in recent history due to the complete inaction. After all, reductio ad absurdum gives us a GT consisting of 19 completely featureless sprint stages and one MTF on stage 20 like some kind of demonic version of the Tour de Langkawi... it would make for a race coming down to stage 20 with several riders having a chance to win... but would be 19 stages of utter dreck as everybody rides to protect themselves ahead of the one-stage showdown and crashes completely obliterate the contenders as a result. It would be a close race until the last, but it wouldn't be very, you know, entertaining for three weeks until that finale.
 
I don't believe that a course should be designed around who is riding (for example to have Contador and Schleck's Tours only have 10 kms of ITT), but I get your point.

And I strongly believe that Hindley should go all in at this Tour. With 2022 Giro form he has a strong chance of a podium and outside chance of victory.

Roglic should join Remco at the Giro imo.
I think hindley can be really close of the other two if with giro 2020 shape. People don't talk to much of his giro 2020 shape. It was a fantastic shape. Piancavallo performance was one of the best of this century, 6.4 w/kg during almost 40 min, his performance on stelvio was also fantastic. I think even in this year's giro he didn't reach thah shape.
 
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Did you enjoy the 2012 Giro? After all, that came down to the final day, but is widely touted as one of the dirt worst GTs in recent history due to the complete inaction. After all, reductio ad absurdum gives us a GT consisting of 19 completely featureless sprint stages and one MTF on stage 20 like some kind of demonic version of the Tour de Langkawi... it would make for a race coming down to stage 20 with several riders having a chance to win... but would be 19 stages of utter dreck as everybody rides to protect themselves ahead of the one-stage showdown and crashes completely obliterate the contenders as a result. It would be a close race until the last, but it wouldn't be very, you know, entertaining for three weeks until that finale.

We can tout extremes all day long. The 2012 Giro, if I remember correctly had almost no mountains until the last week whereas the 2022 Giro had Etna and Blockhaus spread out among hilly and breakaway stages. I am just saying there is a happy medium between "lets craft a route that is pure racing but potentially a boring GC battle" and 20 flat stages culminating in one exciting mountain stage on stage 21. I think Prudhomme has tried to strike that balance. He has crafted a route with a mixture of challenging stages, exciting stages with a "keep the GC close" mentality. I don't hate it. I am willing to own wanting to see a tight GC race even if others aren't.
 
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This years Giro was arguably the most boring edition ever along with 2012. What did they both have in common, there were several riders close together on GC right up to the final mtf....
This years Tour had huge gaps and it was one of the best editions ever, despite there being massive gaps.
Likewise the 2015 Giro and the 2019 Vuelta showed that a race can still be dominated by one rider and still be extremely entertaining.

In short, just because a race might be close, it doesn't necessarily mean it's exciting or entertaining. Like short stages but that another rant......
 
This year's Tour had drama because the two principle actors, particularly one ( bless his soul), put on a real show. With Pog you are gauranteed fireworks, especially if he is put on the back foot or even, to his disadvantage, he feels the need to gain time or simply just attack, because, well, why not!? Then there was a pretty well designed pavé stage, which lends itself to high drama on the road.

Unfortunately, despite appreciating pmans' enthusiasm for cycling, I can't agree with the premise that Prudhomme has designed a route for Pog and Vingo and not for French riders like Gaudu and Bardet. At any rate, even if the former were the case, it is a poorly designed route for Pog and Vingo and the race itself I think. Both can TT, it is said, so then give them some TTs worthy of that skill and indeed the Tour itself. Notwithstanding recent trends and the logic behind them, namely TTs suffocate the race and that too long of stages and less rest days invite doping; leaving out the latter assertions, which can't be discussed here, a proper length TT (preferably at the end of the first week) will force riders to expose any weakness. This, in turn, will have to be compensated by gaining back time through attacking in the mountains.

And even were Pog and Vingo to finish close in such a TT, who thus might or might not bide their time in the mountains to win the race, waiting till the last km to put in a seering accelleration or conversely more boldly attacking from further out, the climbers who can't TT like Hindley would have to implement an aggressive racing strategy. Either way some folks can't just sit still and this opens the racing to interesting scenarios. By contrast, appart from a 20 odd km TT being stuff of the Giro, not the Tour, its short length keeps more or less everyone together, which will make Pog and Vingo, but also the pure climbers, think twice about attacking from afar and risk losing the Tour, the podium or dropping out of the top 10.

Conversely a longer TT likely results in larger time gaps between riders, which causes the need for more aggressive racing to net the win, the podium or finish top 10 depending on what's realistic. Look at the 89 Tour as an example, which had a prologue, a 73 km TT, a MTT in the Alpes and then the famous race against the clock the last day. It also had two evenly matched heavyweights in Fignon and Lemond relentlessly exchanging blows, putting Lemond against the ropes late in the match. But then sensationally, and against all odds, Lemond landed the knock-out blow sending Fignon definitively down in the closing moments of the last round (because it was a TT). Add the fact that the best climber, Delgado, because of much TTing and his own prologue debacle, was forced to race aggressively in the mountains; and you had a great and fascinating Tour from start to finish.

That's why I say with the current crop of stars, it's time to bring back those 80s type of Tours, with proper length TTs, multiple 230-250+ stages, mountains with several high cols in both the Pyrennes and the Alpes to create drama and test their mettle. None of this lily-livered stuff they are serving up now.
 
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Did you enjoy the 2012 Giro? After all, that came down to the final day, but is widely touted as one of the dirt worst GTs in recent history due to the complete inaction. After all, reductio ad absurdum gives us a GT consisting of 19 completely featureless sprint stages and one MTF on stage 20 like some kind of demonic version of the Tour de Langkawi... it would make for a race coming down to stage 20 with several riders having a chance to win... but would be 19 stages of utter dreck as everybody rides to protect themselves ahead of the one-stage showdown and crashes completely obliterate the contenders as a result. It would be a close race until the last, but it wouldn't be very, you know, entertaining for three weeks until that finale.

Everything is always very black or white to you, isn't it?
 
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Everything is always very black or white to you, isn't it?
I used 'reductio ad absurdum' to illustrate that the argument presented was not nuanced enough, because taking it to its logical conclusion, a race where nothing happens until the last day would have lots of people in contention for a big finale but wouldn't be a good race.

I even stated I was using that technique by name. Come on, you're a teacher, you know this.
 
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I used 'reductio ad absurdum' to illustrate that the argument presented was not nuanced enough, because taking it to its logical conclusion, a race where nothing happens until the last day would have lots of people in contention for a big finale but wouldn't be a good race.

I even stated I was using that technique by name. Come on, you're a teacher, you know this.

Yes I do, but I still don't think it's a particularly relevant technique to use here given that the absurd scenario is not what's at hand nor will it ever be in a Grand Tour.

I get your point but there will never be "no action" on the first 19 stages.

Also, just because there is no separation between riders doesn't automatically mean the racing is bad.
 
Also, just because there is no separation between riders doesn't automatically mean the racing is bad.
Sure, but we're talking about the bit that the organisers can help, which is the route. If they provide opportunities for time gaps to develop (since the race is scored on time, this has to be the incentive to significant moves - secondary competitions are fine and in fact were responsible for most of the most interesting stages in the 2020 Tour, for example, but here we're talking about the GC) and the riders use those opportunities but are unsuccessful, that's fine.

However, we are talking about a general trend in recent years to reduce - in marquee stages, as I mentioned the other day I think ASO have actually been doing a good job in respect of their flat and rolling stages in recent years, but those profiles haven't been released yet so we can't discuss those in detail yet - the amount of GC-significant mileage (or at least expected GC-significant mileage in modern cycling, we know there's always the chance for a crosswind stage here and there, crashes, and other unexpected shifts), whether that be in an attempt to generate close competition in the face of a few one-sided races or to sell "the moment" (like the TT in the 2020 Tour, for example). Reducing the TT mileage has coincided with races lacking true queen stages - lots of "three big mountains will do" type mountain stages and Unipuertos, and as we saw in 2021, bigger gaps being produced in the middle of the race resulted in more racing, not less.

I see the principle here as being like a football match that's 0-0 after 85 minutes. It can become a tense and exciting battle if it's an important match and one team scores with five minutes to go and the other team starts throwing hail mary shots at the opposition - but while that last five minutes might be incredible, and will certainly be memorable especially if somebody pulls out an iconic late equaliser or winner... that moment is huge, but it doesn't necessarily make it a good match overall. A 0-0 match could still be a very good match if there have been chances, there have been shots rattling the post, goal-line clearances or the two goalkeepers have just been really great that game. I've watched some very good 0-0 and 1-0 games in my time. But I've also watched a lot more 0-0 and 1-0 games which have been insipid, bland affairs where nobody's really looked like scoring and the player of the match is given to the goalscorer just because nobody else did anything to really merit remembering. Especially in very important matches where everybody's terrified of making a mistake and so play extremely cagey, defensive football. Similarly, in cycling, the more riders are close on time, the more costly a failed attack will be, as losing a minute or two might cost you five places and your all important top 10, whereas with bigger time gaps, if your 6th place isn't really in much danger of turning into 11th place, attacking to see if you can get 3rd place is much more worthwhile. The Tour here is a victim of its own pre-eminence, because there's a lot more riding to protect fairly anonymous placements at the Tour because of the value to the sponsors.
 
Did you enjoy the 2012 Giro? After all, that came down to the final day, but is widely touted as one of the dirt worst GTs in recent history due to the complete inaction.
10 years is a long time, but was the 2012 Giro really that bad?
It was very backloaded, so the first two weeks were bad and after 13 stages there were 30 riders within 3 minutes. But even here Rodriguez had managed to turn 19 seconds behind Hesjedal after the TTT to a 17 second lead.
And the last 8 stages gave pretty big variation and the two top candidates rarely finished together.
14 - MTF Cervinha: break win, Hesjedal took back 26 seconds and got Maglia Rosa.
15 - MTF Pian dei Resenelli: the legendary Rabbatoni victory against Rodriguez. Hesjedal loses 40 seconds and Rodriguez is back in pink.
16: Breakaway stage, no GC action.
17 - mountain stage to Cortina: 6 riders finishing together, Tiralongo which was just a few seconds from podium loses important time.
18: Sprint stage.
19 - MTF Alpe di Pampagneo: Kreuziger wins, Hesjedal 2nd dropping Rodriguez with 13 seconds.
20 - MTF Stelvio: great stage with de Gendts legendary raid bringing him up in podium contention before the TT. Rodriguez dropping Hesjedal, to increase his lead a little bit more. Basso cracking and falling out of podium contention.
21 - ITT: Hesjedal passing Rodriguez, De Gendt passing Scarponi.

The first two weeks were pretty dull, but the last week was not that bad. “Complete inaction” seems to be a bit of a false memory. Of course it wasn’t a great GT, but I think it was a little bit better than the reputation it has.
 
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10 years is a long time, but was the 2012 Giro really that bad?
It was very backloaded, so the first two weeks were bad and after 13 stages there were 30 riders within 3 minutes. But even here Rodriguez had managed to turn 19 seconds behind Hesjedal after the TTT to a 17 second lead.
And the last 8 stages gave pretty big variation and the two top candidates rarely finished together.
14 - MTF Cervinha: break win, Hesjedal took back 26 seconds and got Maglia Rosa.
15 - MTF Pian dei Resenelli: the legendary Rabbatoni victory against Rodriguez. Hesjedal loses 40 seconds and Rodriguez is back in pink.
16: Breakaway stage, no GC action.
17 - mountain stage to Cortina: 6 riders finishing together, Tiralongo which was just a few seconds from podium loses important time.
18: Sprint stage.
19 - MTF Alpe di Pampagneo: Kreuziger wins, Hesjedal 2nd dropping Rodriguez with 13 seconds.
20 - MTF Stelvio: great stage with de Gendts legendary raid bringing him up in podium contention before the TT. Rodriguez dropping Hesjedal, to increase his lead a little bit more. Basso cracking and falling out of podium contention.
21 - ITT: Hesjedal passing Rodriguez, De Gendt passing Scarponi.

The first two weeks were pretty dull, but the last week was not that bad. “Complete inaction” seems to be a bit of a false memory. Of course it wasn’t a great GT, but I think it was a little bit better than the reputation it has.
Most of those time gains were in the last couple of kilometres until the last couple of stages though. Even on the Stelvio stage, Purito didn't go until under 2km to go, and most of the Stelvio saw the entire GC mix climbing at the pace tapped out by Peter Stetina. It also suffered from coming after the similarly backloaded 2011 Tour, where for all the slating I give that race, the last week was actually very good - the Giro 2012 was just as bad if not worse than the 2011 Tour for the first two weeks, then unlike the 2011 Tour which caught fire in the Gap stage and gave us four great, highly memorable stages in a row, it simmered, never boiled, until the riders were confronted with the very real possibility they might lose the Giro to Thomas de Gendt.

I admit that I had remembered it as him climbing onto the podium on the Stelvio stage rather than passing Scarponi in the final TT, but also I'd say that Hesjedal passing Rodríguez in stage 21, while GC relevant of course (how could it not be!), it was entirely as expected as everybody knew Purito's time gap was not enough for him to hold on against the superior time trialist, same as Dumoulin and Quintana in the 2017 Giro and Evans and Andy Schleck in the 2011 Tour. If anything, a better example of final TT tension along those lines would be the 2010 Tour final TT and the 39 second mark, with Andy doing a slightly better TT and Contador doing a slightly worse TT than expected, because most people (myself included) thought Contador would breeze through with well in excess of the controversial 39 second lead.
 
Rating of a GT will often suffer when a popular rider who is hoped to win, doesn't. Basso not winning is a part of the 2012 Giro problem. Also, stage 17 was an epic stage on paper, but very little happened.

Whereas many of us remember the 2014 Vuelta fondly with Contador winning, even though most action only happened on the final climb of stages.
 
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Most of those time gains were in the last couple of kilometres until the last couple of stages though. Even on the Stelvio stage, Purito didn't go until under 2km to go, and most of the Stelvio saw the entire GC mix climbing at the pace tapped out by Peter Stetina. It also suffered from coming after the similarly backloaded 2011 Tour, where for all the slating I give that race, the last week was actually very good - the Giro 2012 was just as bad if not worse than the 2011 Tour for the first two weeks, then unlike the 2011 Tour which caught fire in the Gap stage and gave us four great, highly memorable stages in a row, it simmered, never boiled, until the riders were confronted with the very real possibility they might lose the Giro to Thomas de Gendt.

I admit that I had remembered it as him climbing onto the podium on the Stelvio stage rather than passing Scarponi in the final TT, but also I'd say that Hesjedal passing Rodríguez in stage 21, while GC relevant of course (how could it not be!), it was entirely as expected as everybody knew Purito's time gap was not enough for him to hold on against the superior time trialist, same as Dumoulin and Quintana in the 2017 Giro and Evans and Andy Schleck in the 2011 Tour. If anything, a better example of final TT tension along those lines would be the 2010 Tour final TT and the 39 second mark, with Andy doing a slightly better TT and Contador doing a slightly worse TT than expected, because most people (myself included) thought Contador would breeze through with well in excess of the controversial 39 second lead.
You know that the gc action has been horrible when the Italian commentators start cheering for De Gendt on stage 20...
 
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Rating of a GT will often suffer when a popular rider who is hoped to win, doesn't. Basso not winning is a part of the 2012 Giro problem. Also, stage 17 was an epic stage on paper, but very little happened.

Whereas many of us remember the 2014 Vuelta fondly with Contador winning, even though most action only happened on the final climb of stages.
That's a very typical Vuelta problem in recent years. They caught lightning in a bottle in 2012 - the route for that race was abysmal, covering only half the country with a super-long transfer in the middle, almost no mid-climb stages offering any platform for attack, everything about last 45 minute youtube cycling. But, with the Giro having been so tamely raced, and the Tour clearly dominated by one team with a parcours that discouraged participation by a lot of climbers, and Contador's ban terms and conditions, they got the perfect storm. The last hour and a half of each stage was broadcast only, so (other than the stage where they missed the most important attack of the entire race of course) the boring parts weren't shown and the repetitive, MTF and HTF-heavy parcours meant most days had something of note happen, plus of course the three best Spanish riders of the era squaring off against each other, and it was a huge success and well-received, so they went back to the well on that style of design a lot of the time since. It's redressing a bit now, after a few key stages like Cercedilla 2015 and Formigal 2016, designs like Mos 2021 and some stages that broke from formula like Rogla's escapades and win at Lagos de Covadonga (plus of course broadcasting more of the stage means they have to try to encourage something watchable prior to the final climb), but for a while the Vuelta was basically hockey stick profile city - even if they did include a bunch of climbs earlier in the stage it was often in a profile where there would then be a sizable regrouping phase before the final climb (sometimes not the organisers' fault admittedly, but a problem of the geography of the area, like with the 2010 Cotobello stage where they couldn't do much about the valleys between San Lorenzo, Cobertoria and Cotobello).
 
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i am still waiting for prudhomme and all the supporters of one-dimensional climbers as GC contenders to point to a GT where it was exciting because a bunch of riders had been "kept in play" for 20 days. i cannot even think of one.
If Pog ang Vinge are in peak shape, the one-dimensional climbers aren't going to be within striking distance of these two until the last weekend. Far from it. The only possible rider that could be within a couple of minutes from them is Jay Hindley if he entered in Giro form+. Neither Carapaz, MAL, Yates or any other of the more typical climbers will be close to following Pog and Vinge. The ONE thing much more ITT could have achieved was to encourage Remco to participate and possibly make a three-way race instead of a two-way. Disregard that and it would only have contributed to Pog and Vinge being even more superior and nothing else.
 
If Pog ang Vinge are in peak shape, the one-dimensional climbers aren't going to be within striking distance of these two until the last weekend. Far from it. The only possible rider that could be within a couple of minutes from them is Jay Hindley if he entered in Giro form+. Neither Carapaz, MAL, Yates or any other of the more typical climbers will be close to following Pog and Vinge. The ONE thing much more ITT could have achieved was to encourage Remco to participate and possibly make a three-way race instead of a two-way. Disregard that and it would only have contributed to Pog and Vinge being even more superior and nothing else.
That doesn't really mean the route doesn't matter though. In the case they're in peak shape, you want to incentivize them to attack each other as much as possible.
 
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That doesn't really mean the route doesn't matter though. In the case they're in peak shape, you want to incentivize them to attack each other as much as possible.
Of course. But there isn't a guarantee that much more ITT would have made the route better. It isn't even more likely than not.

The most important aspect of a GT route is mountain stages which creates incentives for attacking further out than the last few kms. Then comes length and total amount of height meters on mountain stages, sequence of the stages and then the amount of ITT.
 

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