2023 Tour de France route rumors

[houtdffan]

You don't or do believe he is not good enough or good enough? That is the question.

Remco won't drop Pog regularly. He may once or twice, but Pgo will also drop Remco. I'd give Pog a slight edge in the mountains

 

[KZD]

Mas is gonna win the TT?

Well I don't have a crystal ball but while I don't believe that is going to happen that's not the point, the point is that someone above in this thread said that this Tour offered a chance for all riders to win stages and I don‘t see TT riders like Ganna, Küng or Bissegger winning this stage or even Van Aert for that matter though he will have other chances. A flat 30/35km TT in week 1 replacing one of the sprint stages would have made the route better.

 

[Extinction]

Remco won't drop Pog regularly. He may once or twice, but Pgo will also drop Remco. I'd give Pog a slight edge in the mountains

Did you get my irony? You evidently meant to write one thing, not another, but mistakenly combined them and it made no sense. But thanks for clarification (in any case, that's what I thought you meant).

Well based on what they demonstrated till the Vuelta, I'd say Tadej drops Remco like a stone every time, but then Evenepoel was not in top shape. With his Vuelta, by contrast, Remco exhibited a level that certainly surprised us all, some, like myself, simply because he hadn't reached it yet, others because they thought him incapable of reaching It. So now the picture has changed.

We saw how top Vingegaard can get the better of Pogacar, who, by contrast, certainly produces a big bang when he attacks, but doesn't always have the staying power to definitively ko his rivals. It could have been that the stars just aligned against Pogacar last Tour or rather that his explosivity really is counterbalanced by diminishing stamina on the big cols, which would indicate a weakness exposed. If this were the case, then a really strong deisel engine type rider, who may not be as explosive, but can carry a big effort through longer, could get the better of Tadej over these comming years. Already Vingegaard might be of this calibre.

Usually having the gift of explosivity, like Contador, for example, especially in the second part of his career, comes at the cost of petering out before a more steady climber/s pushing high watts reals you back in and then even drops you. The only rider (leaving Froome aside, who just dropped calibrated watt bombs) over the last 30 years or so who could attack really hard on a mountain from a whittled down group and back that up with crushing staying power till the finish was Pantani. Yet even he wasn't as explosive as either Contador or Pogacar, but had a better balance between explosivity and stamina I think.

It is interesting that Remco at the Vuelta demonstrated himself to be just such a high watt deisel type climber. He even seemed explosive at the end, because others were too fatigued at the finish to handle his accellerations. Now the Vuelta is not the Tour, but likely Remco will raise his level higher when he does finally do the French race (even if the form he showed at the Vuelta was arguably high enough to start a Tour on good footing). The point is that Pog against guys like Vingegaard and potentially Evenepoel, might have serious trouble dropping them in the mountains when everyone is at there very best.

Of course Pog may just have been slightly bellow his usual level, which until this year placed him in yellow at Paris twice prior. But I actually suspect Vingegaard simply improved considerably from getting 2nd two years ago and that Tadej just met his match this time around. So for me the big questions are whether or not Vingegaard can back his performance this time with such stratospheric form in the years to come (and I have my doubts, more as a mental rather than physical issue)? Will Tadej get back to his winning form in July we were accustomed too? Here I have little doubt that he will. Yet Remco has now become that potential challenge to the hegemony of both that could rewrite the script. We shall see.

 

[waku waku]

With all due respect he wasn't. I remember perfecty that he was in front of WVA before he almost crash. And after that, he lost more than 19 seconds until the finish line for shure.

With all due respect you're wrong.

 

[pman]

I agree with Extinction about Pog's explosiveness vs others ability to apply steady staying power.

For me, the great variable that I'd like more information on is weather. Has Pog ever produced one of his 'Pog goes smash' rides on a hot day? It seems like all of his best efforts occur on colder days in the Monuments, in a race like Tirreno-Adriatico . Even his big win the 21 Tour where he put in a sustained effort in the Alps in stage 8 occurred in a rainy, someone chilly day if I remember correctly. He came back the next day and had the staying power to put in another good effort in the Alps, also on a someone chilly day but summer standards.

Has he ever done anything more than win in a mountain sprint on a hot day? It also seems the days he has cracked or almost cracked (the double ascent of Mont Ventoux) was a hot day.

So I agree with Ex, there likely is something in Pog's potential lack of staying power but I do wonder if weather matters more than we know with him.

 

[tobydawq]

I agree with Extinction about Pog's explosiveness vs others ability to apply steady staying power.

For me, the great variable that I'd like more information on is weather. Has Pog ever produced one of his 'Pog goes smash' rides on a hot day? It seems like all of his best efforts occur on colder days in the Monuments, in a race like Tirreno-Adriatico . Even his big win the 21 Tour where he put in a sustained effort in the Alps in stage 8 occurred in a rainy, someone chilly day if I remember correctly. He came back the next day and had the staying power to put in another good effort in the Alps, also on a someone chilly day but summer standards.

I think you're underselling the weather those days. It was raining cats and dogs, and it was after the epic stage 7 to Le Creusot where UAE were on their knees when the big break with Nibali, Wout, Mathieu, Asgreen, Mohoric (who won) etc. had wreaked havoc on the race on a 250 km stage.

I also think that incident shows the importance of long stages here and there, and I do think ASO are at fault for omitting those (just to clarify that I don't agree with every single decision they take).

 

[Peyroteo94]

Of course Pogi is better on colder or rainy days than hot days but don't forget that his most impressive ride was on a sunny day where he put almost 2 minutes on Roglic.

 

[Extinction]

Good points raised here, what can be said, I think, is that some riders are more vulnerable than others on torid days (40 Celsius/100 Farenheit type days). It doesn't mean they will crack automatically, but that the susceptibility of doing so is higher than with others. In this Tadej seems to have his Achille's Heal. Of course, were Pogacar actually reading this he'd doubtless think it's BS.

 

[ice&fire]

Of course Pogi is better on colder or rainy days than hot days but don't forget that his most impressive ride was on a sunny day where he put almost 2 minutes on Roglic.

A sunny day... in late September.

 

[Big Doopie]

the fact that gaudu is gleeful about the route says it all.

gaudu should never be an actual contender for a true, balanced GT.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

the fact that gaudu is gleeful about the route says it all.

gaudu should never be an actual contender for a true, balanced GT.

He wouldn't even be a contender (for the win, at least) in a Tour he got to design.

 

[Netserk]

The positive aspects of the route:

• Old news, but what a great Grand Depart! I dare even say that it's the best opening weekend of the race ever, or more relevantly as long as I've watched the Tour (if one doesn't expect 2015 to repeat itself).
• Puy de Dôme is back! Where there's a will, there's a way. One of the most iconic climbs of France has been resurrected and should be available in the future again.
• Le Markstein with the Petit Ballon/Platzerwasel combo is the final mountain stage. The past decade has seen a cultivation of options in the Vosges, led by the willingness of PdBF to host stages.
• Col de la Loze is used as a pass.
• Some of the mountain stages have non-flat starts.
• The GC stages are well ordered when back-to-back.
• With the Grand Depart and the Pyrenees already in the middle of the first week, a pecking-order will settle somewhat early.
• GC relevant stages are spread out over the three weeks of the race.
• Minimal transfers.

 

[Red Rick]

He wouldn't even be a contender (for the win, at least) in a Tour he got to design.

Gaudu isn't dependent on route but by a group of French people larping as Canadians clubbing better riders like baby seals

 

[Valv.Piti]

The positive aspects of the route:

• Old news, but what a great Grand Depart! I dare even say that it's the best opening weekend of the race ever, or more relevantly as long as I've watched the Tour (if one doesn't expect 2015 to repeat itself).
• Puy de Dôme is back! Where there's a will, there's a way. One of the most iconic climbs of France has been resurrected and should be available in the future again.
• Le Markstein with the Petit Ballon/Platzerwasel combo is the final mountain stage. The past decade has seen a cultivation of options in the Vosges, led by the willingness of PdBF to host stages.
• Col de la Loze is used as a pass.
• Some of the mountain stages have non-flat starts.
• The GC stages are well ordered when back-to-back.
• With the Grand Depart and the Pyrenees already in the middle of the first week, a pecking-order will settle somewhat early.
• GC relevant stages are spread out over the three weeks of the race.
• Minimal transfers.

And that alone is obviously enough to make it a pretty decent route IMO.

 

[Netserk]

And that alone is obviously enough to make it a pretty decent route IMO.

If I could remove all the dog vomit, sure.

 

[Valv.Piti]

If I could remove all the dog vomit, sure.

So you dont think its a decent route I assume?

 

[Red Rick]

• Stage 1 - is good, but I do wonder how technical that uphill sprint is
• Stage 2 - bruh the Tour starts in Itzulia and Jaizkibel is the best you can do
• Stage 5 - stage with best design for long range attack is first mountain stage
• Stage 6 - just copy paste idea of 3 years ago but let's take a slightly easier side of Soudet. Marie Blanque is a decent climb at this stage
• Stage 9 - low altitude Fedaia. 3km of action if we're lucky in an in unipuerto stage. Acceptable given there's little more you can do with Puy de dome.
• Stage 13 - I'm sorry but this gets credit for being in the right order? Grand Colombier from Culoz is the worst side, it's unipuerto, and nobody has PTSD from 2020?
• Stage 14 - If this is supposed to be one of the focal mountain stages, it's underwhelming. It's gonna be down to the final climb obviously, because obviously it has to be designed to look hard while minimizing potential for action
• Stage 15 - Functional unipuerto on a climb that's not that good in the first place.
• Stage 16 - The only good thing about it is the funniness of the TT fetishists in here
• Stage 17 - lOzE aS a pAsS. Yeah this is exactly what nobody asked for dont pretend you did. Zone 3 climbing before doesn't make this a queen stage
• Stage 18 and 19 - I do love good ordering on stages like 3 flatburgers in the final 4 days
• stage 20 - We've reached the point where Petit-Ballon and Platserwasel - two middling Cat 1s are novelty and reason for hype. And it's not because it's a long stage with super much climbing either. It's actually a worse version of the TdFF stage. I guess downgrading the womens race for the mens Tour is exciting now.

At this stage it's clear TdF design at the ASO is just throwing 2 darts at a map of France blindfold and the nearest 2 climbs have to get gimmicked into something overly marketable.

 

[Netserk]

So you dont think its a decent route I assume?

By the standards of Prudhomme, I guess it's average. I don't think I can word my final verdict any more positively.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Gaudu isn't dependent on route but by a group of French people larping as Canadians clubbing better riders like baby seals

Baby seals? I know a species that seals fear.

Though this all sounds a little less subtle than mere voodoo.

 

[YavorD]

I mean, does someone really consider that Col de la Loze is used as a pass? Climb ends 6 ceilometers from the finish. Not sure what the "decent" looks like, but I doubt will changes the gaps much, unless it's raining cats and dogs. So that "pass" is just slightly better than a MTF.

 

[Netserk]

I mean, does someone really consider that Col de la Loze is used as a pass? Climb ends 6 ceilometers from the finish. Not sure what the "decent" looks like, but I doubt will changes the gaps much, unless it's raining cats and dogs. So that "pass" is just slightly better than a MTF.

You are right that it doesn't add much to next year's route. I'm more happy with it as proof-of-concept, so that the implication from its use is that a Méribel finish after 1½ ascents of Loze is more likely to be used in the future.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I mean, does someone really consider that Col de la Loze is used as a pass? Climb ends 6 ceilometers from the finish. Not sure what the "decent" looks like, but I doubt will changes the gaps much, unless it's raining cats and dogs. So that "pass" is just slightly better than a MTF.

It's as much of a descent finish as this year's Aprica stage at the Giro, which is to say, not really.

I'm sure that Zakarin would have found a way to lose both stages if he got teleported half a minute in front of the first rider at the top of the summit, though.

 

[Peyroteo94]

A sunny day... in late September.

It wasn't a cold day for sure.

 

[gregrowlerson]

It wasn't a cold day for sure.

There were a lot of tears though.

 

[pman]

What I don't think enough people are saying which is important is that routes need to be designed with the GC guys of the moment in mind. I love ITTs, I've made that clear, but during the Froome years I was ok with the trend towards light ITTs because it made for a more exciting race because there was just about only 1 GC guy who could climb and time trial.

Now, we have a bunch of all rounders. Pog's only weakness besides his own aggression seems to be the ability to keep pace on giant watt heavy climbs, maybe recovery and maybe the heat. Ving hasn't shown any weaknesses but then again he's won 1 major race in his career so we really don't know what his weakness is.

However, those two are great time trialists and great (different) climbers. Both have super strong teams. This is a great route to make them go at each other, day in and day out. In the hills, in the mountains and potentially even on the flat in a stage like 19. If you throw in a team like Ineos with someone like Bernal or one of the French climbers or a Bora guy like Hindley, now you're looking at a fabulous course design.

I don't love the route but as Prudhomme has said, he has designed a route that is designed for all the GC guys. He can't help that we live in an era where two guys seem above everyone else. If both show up in good shape, it's a great route. If neither show up in great shape, it's a great route. If only one shows up strong then no route would have made it exciting---did you see how much Pog won by in 21 and how much Ving won over the 3rd place guy this year? It's a route designed for those two while still enticing other mountain goats to hang around until probably stage 16 or 17. The more I think about the route, the more I like it. Not because it looks pretty or is a pure test of cycling but because it's designed to fit the stars of the sport.

I for one can't wait to see what an improved UAE can do on this course. Those two teams could cause a real battle in this thing.