2023 Tour de France route rumors

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It's actually the hardest TDF route I've seen in a while. I would like to see 250km + stages, but other than that it delivers on that front (by recent standards). Don't think the 10th rider on GC on the 2nd restday will only be ~ 5 minutes behind, like some people expect. (Paraphrased)

I quite like some of the retraced stage profiles on legruppetto.fr and la-flamme-rouge.eu

Stage 19 is not one of them, but it does look like a typical 3rd week breakaway stage, not a sprint. Stage 18 is a 99% sprint, though.

One of those stages should have been a GC stage, but apart from that that I quite like the route.
What is harder about this Tour than 2020 or 2021?
 
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Oh yes, because this year's Giro and the 2020 Tour weren't paralyzed at all lol
Those races were paralyzed because the TTs were placed at the end, thus instead of setting up the battles for positions leaving the GC as an unsorted mess, which made riders risk-averse as the consequences of being the first to start the movements are too great in this scenario. Prudhomme‘s thoughts are definitely true concerning the traditional ”final test“ which I reckon should not be the main body of TT mileage it has often been designed to represent. Instead in my opinion time trials should feature primarily early in the race. This way they set up the storylines and battles for the rest of the Tour instead of blocking racing with their looming presence.

I don‘t perceive individual time trials as a particularly pure, aesthetic or interesting discipline but instead as a means by which a spectacular race can become more likely. Of course this take on race design theory is not without its downfalls, in particular when the strongest climber is also the strongest time trialist but it’s surely more reasonable than declaring the time trial to be the source of all evil.
 
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The people claiming that TT distance doesn't matter with the current crop of GC riders seem to ignore or forget about Evenepoel. Given that he has weaker support than Pogacar and especially Vingegaard and is (as of now) more vulnerable in the mountains, the most probable route to a really good Tour is having Evenepoel in yellow heading in to the decisive mountain stages. For that, you need a proper ITT, in this case between the Pyrenees and Alps.

And even without Evenepoel, it's always possible that Pogacar or Vingegaard does a subpar TT which sets you up equally well.
Lol , you are writing as if the organiser have a job to sit and overthink every possible gc scenario, with every rider involved, with every possible order of stages, with every weather condition, and then predict which exactly will be the most constantly enthralling for the fans , as if they owe you the most exciting 3 week of your life every time there is a GT.

'Why no put the whole TDF in provence, because Pogacar doesn't like the heat. This way he is vulnerable for 3 weeks and we get incredible not-stop actions with explosions.

This is the best possible route for a really good Tour, no? But having the Tour go more to the north in France they are just basically handing the race to Pogacar and it will be totally controlled by UAE, no action'

^that's the kind of speculation you are doing.

Each GT is totally unique, each is an individual segment in cycling history with its own route, its own startlist, its own favourites, its own flaws, its own story. None of them are perfect, there is no formula that's the most entertaining.

In 2014, the route seemed great, but Nibali won the race on the first week. So it was not a great Tour, no fault of the organiser and the amount of ITT kilometers on a pan flat valley with a headwind, or whatever characteristic you want.
 
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The people claiming that TT distance doesn't matter with the current crop of GC riders seem to ignore or forget about Evenepoel. Given that he has weaker support than Pogacar and especially Vingegaard and is (as of now) more vulnerable in the mountains, the most probable route to a really good Tour is having Evenepoel in yellow heading in to the decisive mountain stages. For that, you need a proper ITT, in this case between the Pyrenees and Alps.

And even without Evenepoel, it's always possible that Pogacar or Vingegaard does a subpar TT which sets you up equally well.
And what makes you think that remco could gain time to vingegaard and pogacar at the tour on the ITTs?! The context at the tour for pogacar and specially for Vingegaard it's different in comparison to the rest of the races of the year in terms of TT.
Remco can gain 1 min in 30 km of a TT at the tirreno adriatico to vingegaard and pogacar, but the same wouldn't happen at the tour, because they are at they're absolute best in july at everything.
Vingegaard was gonna beat WVA in the last ITT of the tour by more than 20 seconds if he didn't slow down, and remco isn't by far better than WVA on the TTs. The level at the tour is absolutely different comparing with the rest of the year for them.
So isn't guaranted that remco could gain time at the TTs to them.
 
When the best time trialist is also the best climber, the chances are they're going to win because the improvement in professionalism and depth of the bunch as well as tactical developments over the last 30-40 years mean that GC riders have largely boiled down to some kind of combination of the two, unless something unusual happens or they don't make it to the finish. Neutering one element or the other won't change that.

I don't particularly enjoy time trials either, but the idea of a Grand Tour is to be the ultimate test of a (road) cyclist, proving themselves over a set of supreme endurance and taking on a bit of everything that road cycling has to throw at them. While I am much more likely to be found paying homage to the romantic, swashbuckling climbers like Fuente, Jiménez or Herrera through the annals of the forum... I also recognise that for them, the multi-col lone escapes and solos weren't a stylistic choice - they were the only way by which they could compete for the GC, because they would lose so much time in flat stages and ITTs. Now, unless the weather plays ball or the flat stage is otherwise non-standard (e.g. a cobbles stage), GC riders are too well protected in flat stages for them to really create gaps that heavier, more all-round GC candidates can exploit (and the importance of this is known to all GC contenders, you don't have a Bahamontes slowly drifting to the back over and over again unless this is a conscious choice, such as with Simon Yates), so you're left with the time trials.

Take for example the 1999 Vuelta a España. In the 6km prologue, José María Jiménez loses 25 seconds. But it's ok, it's only a prologue, and that time loss is to González de Galdeano, not Ullrich. Olano is at +1", but that's nothing Chava can't overturn on '98's evidence, right? Olano wins a 51km ITT on stage 6, just under a minute ahead of Ullrich. Iván Parra is in the top 10 on the day, and Heras, in 21st, is over 4 minutes back. Chava is 85th, six and a half minutes down. The final TT, on the penultimate day, is a hillier affair, over a long but gradual climb from El Tiemblo to Ávila. Chava, buoyed by the tougher parcours and local roads to him (he comes from El Barraco, just outside Ávila) as well as that week 3 TT suiting the GC men thing, is up in 25th place - still six and a half minutes down on Ullrich, but Ullrich does an Indurain demolition job beating almost everybody by three minutes. Olano is of course out of the race by now. The thing is... this was Chava's level in a time trial. He made his brother in law look like Cancellara. And yet he still contended. He still finished 5th in the GC. He still won the stage on the Angliru and finished top 3 in three other mountain stages. But he was losing twelve minutes plus to Ullrich on time trials - ending at +9'24". That's with 103km of ITT - a huge amount by modern standards, but it's that time loss that gave Jiménez the freedom to light up the mountains and be the infuriatingly inconsistent romantic hero that he was. If he's a minute and a half down on the GC because they've only had 18km of time trialling all three weeks, no way does he get allowed up the road. Ever.

But... José María Jiménez never won a Grand Tour. And here's the kicker: barring an outlyingly super performance à la Pantani '98, nor should he have. I'm sure I would have done what Echavarrí did in '98 and chosen Chava over Olano, because he's the kind of rider I adore. But that type of rider should have to be the ultra-mythical type to win a GT, because they're too lopsided a skillset. Look at how many GTs overall were won by Pantani, Fuente, van Impe, Bahamontes. Hell, Herrera won one, and that was acquired more or less by default with Kelly's withdrawal. Neither Jiménez, Julio or José María, won a GT. They won the GPM and they tried to fight back into the GC. But nowadays there's no reason for the pure one-dimensional grimpeur not to think they're a GC specialist. Ignore Wiggins' transformation because his climbing in that race gets overlooked because of how dominant he was in the time trials - pick a pure time triallist. If we don't think Filippo Ganna and Fabian Cancellara are all-round enough to win GTs, then why do we accept that, say, Miguel Ángel López or Mikel Landa are, because they're climbers and not rodadores? Yes, I'd rather watch Supermán too, and I always enjoy when he succeeds because win lose or draw he'll usually entertain me... but the courses should be set in a way to find that sweet spot where riders like him aren't disadvantaged so much that they can't think they can compete... but they are disadvantaged enough that they can only actually win by pulling out a historic super-performance as a climber to overcome their deficits elsewhere.

Also, increasing the time loss for riders like that in the TTs means you can get away with tougher mountain stages that allow more time to be won and lost. I said earlier, I've actually been pleased with the way ASO has handled flat and transitional stages in the last couple of years. The flip side is that mountain stages have been lacking, largely being like a supporting cast but without any wow factor or any real genuine queen stage. So you don't end up making the climbers that much more competitive, you just end up giving the riders the same materials but a smaller canvas to paint on.
 
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And what makes you think that remco could gain time to vingegaard and pogacar at the tour on the ITTs?! The context at the tour for pogacar and specially for Vingegaard it's different in comparison to the rest of the races of the year in terms of TT.
Remco can gain 1 min in 30 km of a TT at the tirreno adriatico to vingegaard and pogacar, but the same wouldn't happen at the tour, because they are at they're absolute best in july at everything.
Vingegaard was gonna beat WVA in the last ITT of the tour by more than 20 seconds if he didn't slow down, and remco isn't by far better than WVA on the TTs. The level at the tour is absolutely different comparing with the rest of the year for them.
So isn't guaranted that remco could gain time at the TTs to them.
Good rewriting of history but Vingegaard was already behind WVA in the ITT when he almost crashed because he was taking too many risks, but of course he was slowing down.
 
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And what makes you think that remco could gain time to vingegaard and pogacar at the tour on the ITTs?! The context at the tour for pogacar and specially for Vingegaard it's different in comparison to the rest of the races of the year in terms of TT.
Remco can gain 1 min in 30 km of a TT at the tirreno adriatico to vingegaard and pogacar, but the same wouldn't happen at the tour, because they are at they're absolute best in july at everything.So isn't guaranted that remco could gain time at the TTs to them.

ah, yes, the familiar narrative that Remco only beats anyone when they are not at their best.

Remco was not at his best at TA and still beat both of them in a short prologue. (Btw Pog said he was close to his TDF top shape at T-A). So one could even flip your analogy completely the other way based simply on that.

and when Remco was trained and ready he beat Roglic in a way Rog has rarely been beaten at the Vuelta ITT.

can u even step back for a moment and see how truly ridiculous your analogy is, how full of glaring double standards?
 
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When the best time trialist is also the best climber, the chances are they're going to win because the improvement in professionalism and depth of the bunch as well as tactical developments over the last 30-40 years mean that GC riders have largely boiled down to some kind of combination of the two, unless something unusual happens or they don't make it to the finish. Neutering one element or the other won't change that.

I don't particularly enjoy time trials either, but the idea of a Grand Tour is to be the ultimate test of a (road) cyclist, proving themselves over a set of supreme endurance and taking on a bit of everything that road cycling has to throw at them. While I am much more likely to be found paying homage to the romantic, swashbuckling climbers like Fuente, Jiménez or Herrera through the annals of the forum... I also recognise that for them, the multi-col lone escapes and solos weren't a stylistic choice - they were the only way by which they could compete for the GC, because they would lose so much time in flat stages and ITTs. Now, unless the weather plays ball or the flat stage is otherwise non-standard (e.g. a cobbles stage), GC riders are too well protected in flat stages for them to really create gaps that heavier, more all-round GC candidates can exploit (and the importance of this is known to all GC contenders, you don't have a Bahamontes slowly drifting to the back over and over again unless this is a conscious choice, such as with Simon Yates), so you're left with the time trials.

Take for example the 1999 Vuelta a España. In the 6km prologue, José María Jiménez loses 25 seconds. But it's ok, it's only a prologue, and that time loss is to González de Galdeano, not Ullrich. Olano is at +1", but that's nothing Chava can't overturn on '98's evidence, right? Olano wins a 51km ITT on stage 6, just under a minute ahead of Ullrich. Iván Parra is in the top 10 on the day, and Heras, in 21st, is over 4 minutes back. Chava is 85th, six and a half minutes down. The final TT, on the penultimate day, is a hillier affair, over a long but gradual climb from El Tiemblo to Ávila. Chava, buoyed by the tougher parcours and local roads to him (he comes from El Barraco, just outside Ávila) as well as that week 3 TT suiting the GC men thing, is up in 25th place - still six and a half minutes down on Ullrich, but Ullrich does an Indurain demolition job beating almost everybody by three minutes. Olano is of course out of the race by now. The thing is... this was Chava's level in a time trial. He made his brother in law look like Cancellara. And yet he still contended. He still finished 5th in the GC. He still won the stage on the Angliru and finished top 3 in three other mountain stages. But he was losing twelve minutes plus to Ullrich on time trials - ending at +9'24". That's with 103km of ITT - a huge amount by modern standards, but it's that time loss that gave Jiménez the freedom to light up the mountains and be the infuriatingly inconsistent romantic hero that he was. If he's a minute and a half down on the GC because they've only had 18km of time trialling all three weeks, no way does he get allowed up the road. Ever.

But... José María Jiménez never won a Grand Tour. And here's the kicker: barring an outlyingly super performance à la Pantani '98, nor should he have. I'm sure I would have done what Echavarrí did in '98 and chosen Chava over Olano, because he's the kind of rider I adore. But that type of rider should have to be the ultra-mythical type to win a GT, because they're too lopsided a skillset. Look at how many GTs overall were won by Pantani, Fuente, van Impe, Bahamontes. Hell, Herrera won one, and that was acquired more or less by default with Kelly's withdrawal. Neither Jiménez, Julio or José María, won a GT. They won the GPM and they tried to fight back into the GC. But nowadays there's no reason for the pure one-dimensional grimpeur not to think they're a GC specialist. Ignore Wiggins' transformation because his climbing in that race gets overlooked because of how dominant he was in the time trials - pick a pure time triallist. If we don't think Filippo Ganna and Fabian Cancellara are all-round enough to win GTs, then why do we accept that, say, Miguel Ángel López or Mikel Landa are, because they're climbers and not rodadores? Yes, I'd rather watch Supermán too, and I always enjoy when he succeeds because win lose or draw he'll usually entertain me... but the courses should be set in a way to find that sweet spot where riders like him aren't disadvantaged so much that they can't think they can compete... but they are disadvantaged enough that they can only actually win by pulling out a historic super-performance as a climber to overcome their deficits elsewhere.

Also, increasing the time loss for riders like that in the TTs means you can get away with tougher mountain stages that allow more time to be won and lost. I said earlier, I've actually been pleased with the way ASO has handled flat and transitional stages in the last couple of years. The flip side is that mountain stages have been lacking, largely being like a supporting cast but without any wow factor or any real genuine queen stage. So you don't end up making the climbers that much more competitive, you just end up giving the riders the same materials but a smaller canvas to paint on.

superb post.
 
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ah, yes, the familiar narrative that Remco only beats anyone when they are not at their best.

Remco was not at his best at TA and still beat both of them in a short prologue. (Btw Pog said he was close to his TDF top shape at T-A). So one could even flip your apology completely the other way based simply on that.

and when Remco was trained and ready he beat Roglic in a way Rog has rarely been beaten at the Vuelta ITT.

can u even step back for a moment and see how truly ridiculous your analogy is, how full of glaring double standards?
I didn't said nothing depreciative about remco. At the tour, the context is different. Pogacar and vingegaard can be more fast than ganna for example. And i'm also not diminish ganna.
Breathe a little, calm down remco fanboy.
 
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I didn't said nothing depreciative about remco. At the tour, the context is different. Pogacar and vingegaard can be more fast than ganna for example. And i'm also not diminish ganna.
Breathe a little, calm down remco fanboy.
There's a flaw in your reasoning.
Perhaps Vingegaard and Pogačar can be faster than Ganna 'cause of the accumulated fatigue throughout the race (that's the reason, right?), then Evenepoel wouldn't be handicapped, on contrary. The three would be a level playing field during the entire race and their natural advantages would be separating them on different terrain, which puts Evenepoel ahead of the two in any tt at any place. Depending on the profile the gaps would just vary.
 
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When the best time trialist is also the best climber, the chances are they're going to win because the improvement in professionalism and depth of the bunch as well as tactical developments over the last 30-40 years mean that GC riders have largely boiled down to some kind of combination of the two, unless something unusual happens or they don't make it to the finish. Neutering one element or the other won't change that.

I don't particularly enjoy time trials either, but the idea of a Grand Tour is to be the ultimate test of a (road) cyclist, proving themselves over a set of supreme endurance and taking on a bit of everything that road cycling has to throw at them. While I am much more likely to be found paying homage to the romantic, swashbuckling climbers like Fuente, Jiménez or Herrera through the annals of the forum... I also recognise that for them, the multi-col lone escapes and solos weren't a stylistic choice - they were the only way by which they could compete for the GC, because they would lose so much time in flat stages and ITTs. Now, unless the weather plays ball or the flat stage is otherwise non-standard (e.g. a cobbles stage), GC riders are too well protected in flat stages for them to really create gaps that heavier, more all-round GC candidates can exploit (and the importance of this is known to all GC contenders, you don't have a Bahamontes slowly drifting to the back over and over again unless this is a conscious choice, such as with Simon Yates), so you're left with the time trials.

Take for example the 1999 Vuelta a España. In the 6km prologue, José María Jiménez loses 25 seconds. But it's ok, it's only a prologue, and that time loss is to González de Galdeano, not Ullrich. Olano is at +1", but that's nothing Chava can't overturn on '98's evidence, right? Olano wins a 51km ITT on stage 6, just under a minute ahead of Ullrich. Iván Parra is in the top 10 on the day, and Heras, in 21st, is over 4 minutes back. Chava is 85th, six and a half minutes down. The final TT, on the penultimate day, is a hillier affair, over a long but gradual climb from El Tiemblo to Ávila. Chava, buoyed by the tougher parcours and local roads to him (he comes from El Barraco, just outside Ávila) as well as that week 3 TT suiting the GC men thing, is up in 25th place - still six and a half minutes down on Ullrich, but Ullrich does an Indurain demolition job beating almost everybody by three minutes. Olano is of course out of the race by now. The thing is... this was Chava's level in a time trial. He made his brother in law look like Cancellara. And yet he still contended. He still finished 5th in the GC. He still won the stage on the Angliru and finished top 3 in three other mountain stages. But he was losing twelve minutes plus to Ullrich on time trials - ending at +9'24". That's with 103km of ITT - a huge amount by modern standards, but it's that time loss that gave Jiménez the freedom to light up the mountains and be the infuriatingly inconsistent romantic hero that he was. If he's a minute and a half down on the GC because they've only had 18km of time trialling all three weeks, no way does he get allowed up the road. Ever.

But... José María Jiménez never won a Grand Tour. And here's the kicker: barring an outlyingly super performance à la Pantani '98, nor should he have. I'm sure I would have done what Echavarrí did in '98 and chosen Chava over Olano, because he's the kind of rider I adore. But that type of rider should have to be the ultra-mythical type to win a GT, because they're too lopsided a skillset. Look at how many GTs overall were won by Pantani, Fuente, van Impe, Bahamontes. Hell, Herrera won one, and that was acquired more or less by default with Kelly's withdrawal. Neither Jiménez, Julio or José María, won a GT. They won the GPM and they tried to fight back into the GC. But nowadays there's no reason for the pure one-dimensional grimpeur not to think they're a GC specialist. Ignore Wiggins' transformation because his climbing in that race gets overlooked because of how dominant he was in the time trials - pick a pure time triallist. If we don't think Filippo Ganna and Fabian Cancellara are all-round enough to win GTs, then why do we accept that, say, Miguel Ángel López or Mikel Landa are, because they're climbers and not rodadores? Yes, I'd rather watch Supermán too, and I always enjoy when he succeeds because win lose or draw he'll usually entertain me... but the courses should be set in a way to find that sweet spot where riders like him aren't disadvantaged so much that they can't think they can compete... but they are disadvantaged enough that they can only actually win by pulling out a historic super-performance as a climber to overcome their deficits elsewhere.

Also, increasing the time loss for riders like that in the TTs means you can get away with tougher mountain stages that allow more time to be won and lost. I said earlier, I've actually been pleased with the way ASO has handled flat and transitional stages in the last couple of years. The flip side is that mountain stages have been lacking, largely being like a supporting cast but without any wow factor or any real genuine queen stage. So you don't end up making the climbers that much more competitive, you just end up giving the riders the same materials but a smaller canvas to paint on.

Agreed 100%. We should be wanting to see these long range attacks, not the attack with 1.5km to go like in this past Giro, because riders are too scared to lose their precious 7th place on GC
 
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I didn't said nothing depreciative about remco. At the tour, the context is different. Pogacar and vingegaard can be more fast than ganna for example. And i'm also not diminish ganna.
Breathe a little, calm down remco fanboy.

i am utterly calm.

in fact, i am not one who would suggest that remco would gain much time in a TDF ITT over those two.

but as another poster has pointed out, your argument is completely flawed.

i would expect vingo and pog to be flying at the TDF as it is their goal. but to then say that remco would in turn not be flying as well if he had prepped solely for the TDF is completely illogical. and i am pointing to facts.

when remco prepped he won the vuelta ITT by a greater than expected margin over Rog (the Olympic ITT champ).

when pog was flying (said so himself) and remco was not (proof is in the rest of the race), remco still beat Pog at the T-A prologue.

so, in fact, it appears that remco, in top shape (as in the vuelta) may have an even greater advantage. but i won't go that far. i would simply expect him to have the same improvement as Vingo and Pog have if he were to target the TDF. In other words he would still beat them in the ITT as he has done throughout his career. by how much is the only question...
 
While my mountain and route geography isn’t very good, I do know if Cavendish rides he will win the first or second sprint stage. Otherwise I wish there was more time trial miles with a MTT to see Vingegaard and Pogacar more mano a mano without the team.

Nobody wants to win the Tour like Wiggens , nobody wants to be Mick Rogers or Tony Martin.
I think many would want to be the best time trialist and second best climber to win and basically stamp his authority with the team while being the first rider from his country to win a Grand Tour and it be the Tour de France.

LS’s correct critique on Rodgers aside, he did win 3 World TT titles, 3 GT stages, GT top 10s, Olympic medal, stage races, and was part of GT winning teams. As for Martin that’s even crazier as he had more World titles and medals, better Olympic medal,
 
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Weird route. I am not saying I hate it. What happened to the TTT? Riders were tweeting about it, were they just following the same sources we were? There's no way they didn't have inside info. There must be an interesting behind the scenes story concerning that.

Beyond that, I'd like more ITT ks but the race only has what, 4 mountain top finishes? So I am not sure the balance is as bad as some think.

The transition stages could all be tougher. Specifically stages 10, 12, 18 and 19 could all be tougher. But, 10 and 12 could all be worse. Specifically I think stage 12could be one UAE tries to put Jumbo under pressure in. It has a punchy uphill finish Pog could win.

I think the key to the race is getting Pog and UAE as well as Jumbo and Rog/Ving to the race in great shape. If you could add in another tough climber from a team like Ineos, now you're looking at a fun race. The design is pretty flattering to Pog and UAE in particular. UAE might be better in the mountains/hills than Jumbo. With that said, I agree that Ving's other worldly ability to recover will help in a route that looks pretty relentless.

The thing I am most disapointing about is 2 sprint stages, back to back in two of the last three GC stages.

Honestly though I don't mind the route. That Beaujolais stage 12 would be a fun one to go to. You could stay in Lyon and take the train in.
 
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Yesterday I thought it could still be anywhere between a 4 and an 8 depending on what runors would pan out

They went for a bona fide 1. ASO is hopeless, anything good is by accident.

Today is a glorious day for the PWU. We are open to all applications

Like your new signature! Haven't come across that yet, gotta catch up on this thread.

Slightly seriously, I quite like the route (so not applying just yet), from a quick observation anyway. Mountain stages are generally not long enough, but a lot of the climbs seem linked reasonably well. Morzine stage is good, and Loze stage is pretty much a queen stage, serious amount of climbing that stage. And ITT the day BEFORE it (not AFTER it) is perfect pacing. And immediately after the rest day, spot on. Actually, all of stages 13-17 look great as a block. Stage 20 is nice, and the first week is good, so the route is not particularly backloaded.

All it needs is a 30-50 km ITT around stage 10 and make one of the high mountain stages 200+ km, and I would rate it a 9 instead of a 7.
 
This thread is full of more informed, more studied, and sharper folks, so can one of you assess this route for Roglic and Remco? Earlier in the thread, someone said this might make Remco rethink the Giro and Rog will definitely not do the Giro after seeing the Tour route, both of which are the exact opposite of what I thought when I read others’ summaries of the Tour route. Isn’t the Giro route way better for Remco than the Tour? And doesn’t the lack of ITT similarly hurt Rog? Does this change anything for him? Seems like Pogacar is the big winner here, or maybe Vingo.
 
If Remco was going to do Giro Tour, he should reconsider and do Giro Vuelta. Mimic Contador 2008

I don't believe Remco is not good enough to drop Pog in the mountains regularly. HIs only chance would be to turn stages 1,2, and 5 into all out wars