2023 Tour de France route rumors

[Libertine Seguros]

Only one well designed AND really tough mountain stage, the Le Grand Bonard stage. No true GC stages until stage 15. Very backloaded. Total difficulty of route was at the lower end of the scale. There was much more wrong with that route than what was good.

Stage 17 in that race is such a bizarre anomaly. Like, one of the finest stages Prudhomme has ever greenlit, somehow nestled within the rest of that car crash of a Tour.

 

[Bolder]

Only time Astana really rode for Contador was in the TTT and that was trying to get Armstrong in yellow.



Is it possible to have a cobbled stage at like 18 or 19 while still keeping mountain stages the last week and finishing in Paris?

Not if the goal is to minimize transfers. What you could do is have a cobbled stage 20 in the Lille/Roubaix area, then start stage 21 from the north of Paris.

 

[ashhutch1997]

Stage 17 in that race is such a bizarre anomaly. Like, one of the finest stages Prudhomme has ever greenlit, somehow nestled within the rest of that car crash of a Tour.

Ironically Prudhommes two worst routes 2009 and 2012 both had random well designed medium mountain stages. 2009 had a nice stage through the Voges to Colmar, but it wasn't raced very well. And 2012 had that great stage to Porrentruy.
Two great designed stages in an awful couple of routes.

 

[Netserk]

Not if the goal is to minimize transfers. What you could do is have a cobbled stage 20 in the Lille/Roubaix area, then start stage 21 from the north of Paris.

Stage 20 is usually farther away from Paris than Valenciennes is. Transfer is not a problem.

There's less than 200 km between Nancy and Charleville-Mézières, so stage 19 can be a hilly transitional stage (another option is to go to Liège Spa for stage 19). Then stage 18 can be a mountain stage in the Vosges, which in turn means that you can have stage 16 in the Alps (like in 2020 with just one stage in between Alps and Vosges). And then you have your third week.

 

[Ulle97]

In fairness to Wiggins, his 2012 season was excellent. His form leading up to the tour was impressive. It seems like he was a late bloomer and had one big season in him. The 2012 route favoured him with the 2 time trials. He did have some difficult mountains to negotiate but he had an imperious team around him.

Wiggins did manage a 3rd in 2009, however. That included a true queen stage.

Only riders who finished ahead of him were Contador and Schleck, both of whom did not ride 2012

 

[gavia88]

In fairness to Wiggins, his 2012 season was excellent. His form leading up to the tour was impressive. It seems like he was a late bloomer and had one big season in him. The 2012 route favoured him with the 2 time trials. He did have some difficult mountains to negotiate but he had an imperious team around him.

Besides, he didn't seems to have the same motivation anymore. He reached his big goal in the 'road' cycling part of his carreer. Sky sent him to the giro the year after, and already after a week of only rain and losing time because of it, he went home (maybe he was ill as well, can't remember). I guess if he was racing the 2013 season with the same motivation and drive, he could have won more. It was from the start of the tour in 2012 clear that Wiggens was the big favorite. And he would have won the tour on a less TT oriented route as well (well, if sky could have managed the rivalry with Froome). Outside the team there was not really someone threatening Sky and Wiggens.


The only one who really could have beaten Wiggens was Froome that year. But he lost already a few minutes on the first stage to Liege because of bad luck just before the finish. With 2 more mountain stages and less TT kilometers, and without bad luck in stage 1, Froome would have been the stronger rider. But team tactics wanted Wiggens to win. But besides Froome? Nibali and Evans were the 2 other big names in the top 10. Nibali, was not the rider yet he later was in 2013 and 2014. And for Evans it was the opposite. He was not able to follow sky uphill. Number 4 was VDB, 5th TJ and 6th Zubeldia. They wouldn't have won from Froom that year on a mountainious route neither.

 

[houtdffan]

In fairness to Wiggins, his 2012 season was excellent. His form leading up to the tour was impressive. It seems like he was a late bloomer and had one big season in him. The 2012 route favoured him with the 2 time trials. He did have some difficult mountains to negotiate but he had an imperious team around him.

My main point was, 2012 was not a one off for Wiggins. Without Contador and Schleck, he would have won 2009 as well

 

[tobydawq]

My main point was, 2012 was not a one off for Wiggins. Without Contador and Schleck, he would have won 2009 as well

Sure...

And without Contador, Landa and Aru, Amador would have won the Giro.

 

[Ulle97]

Outside of the Alps, Pyrenees, Jura, Vosges and Massif Central,.... (The 5 big ranges) are there any other climbs in France that can be used to make a GC selection.

I often thought of Mont Faron. The Signal d'Uchon was used in the Morvan. That was a 240km stage.
Are there other areas with possibilities??

 

[OlavEH]

I often thought of Mont Faron. The Signal d'Uchon was used in the Morvan. That was a 240km stage.
Are there other areas with possibilities??

Mont Ventoux.......

And I'm not sure if the climbs in southern Provence around Nice is considered to be a part of the Alps or not.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Outside of the Alps, Pyrenees, Jura, Vosges and Massif Central,.... (The 5 big ranges) are there any other climbs in France that can be used to make a GC selection.

I often thought of Mont Faron. The Signal d'Uchon was used in the Morvan. That was a 240km stage.
Are there other areas with possibilities??

Mont Faron is technically still in the Alps, depending on your definition - it's not really clearly defined which parts of the Provence are still part of it, even if it's all semi-continuous as far as the Rhône.

The obvious answer here is Corsica, by the way, but you'd have to find a way to go there without it being the Grand Départ. Other than that, there's some Uchon-sized stuff in the French Ardennes and that's basically it.

 

[Netserk]

Mont Faron is technically still in the Alps, depending on your definition - it's not really clearly defined which parts of the Provence are still part of it, even if it's all semi-continuous as far as the Rhône.

The obvious answer here is Corsica, by the way, but you'd have to find a way to go there without it being the Grand Départ. Other than that, there's some Uchon-sized stuff in the French Ardennes and that's basically it.

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[OlavEH]

Just had to check the 21 climbs again and the status of them. A short summary below:

#1: Col du Coq (Isère) - The hidden Alpe d'Huez twin brother - not yet done.

#2: Col de la Lusette (Gard) - The successor to the Puy de Dôme - used and coupled with a Aigoual finish in 2020. Fairly underwhelming, probably much due to being the first mountain stage.

#3: Mont du Chat (Savoie) - The French Mortirolo - used in 2017 both in CD and the Tour. A bit underwhelming in the Tour, again probably due to being first big mountain stage.

#4: Col du Granon (Hautes-Alpes) - The nightmare of Hinault - used in 2022, big success

#5: Signal de Bisanne (Savoie) - The taller brother of Saisies - most of the climb used as a pass in 2017, but as the first climb on the stage.

#6: Col de la Pierre Carrée (Haute-Savoie) - The asymmetric climb - not used

#7: Superbagnères (Haute-Garonne) - The superignored - not used again, still Peyragudes.

#8: Grand Ballon (Haut-Rhin) - The toughest, highest vosgian climb - used as a pass in both 2014 and 2019, not very decisive.

#9: Col de la Pierre-Saint-Martin (Pyrénées-Atlantiques) - The gate of Pays Basque - used once as a MTF in 2015 where Froome dominated. Still not used from the best/toughest approach.

#10: Col de la Couillole (Alpes-Maritimes) - The Mercantour lost treasure - used in PN, but not the Tour. Possible in 2024 if the Tour finish in Nice?

#11: Col de la Cayolle (Alpes-Maritimes) - The one between two legends - not used.

#12: Col de Turini (Alpes-Maritimes) - The French Stelvio - used in 2020 with a Nice finish, also possible in 2024?

#13: Col de l'Arpettaz (Savoie) - The hidden loop - not used

#14: Mont Ventoux from Malaucène (Vaucluse) - The eternal descent - not used, or?

#15: Plateau des Saix (Haute-Savoie) - The Joux-Plane neighbor - not used

#16: Col du Mont Noir (Isère) - The Vercors' magic square - not used

#17: Col du Grand Colombier - other sides (Ain) - The redemption of a forgotten climb - used several times in different ways. probably still no epic stage incl. GC.

#18: Val Pelouse (Isère) - The ghost station - not used

#19: Plateau de Solaison (Haute-Savoie) - The Bornes' secret - not used in the Tour, but both in 2017 and 2022 for CD.

#20: Col du Parpaillon (Alpes-de-Haute-Provence/Hautes-Alpes) - The time-travelling climb - not used

#21: Pic Maïdo (Réunion) - The far, far away dream - not used

 

[OlavEH]

8 used in the Tour, 5 of them as MTF or last climb
2 used in other races
1 used in the Tour, but not in the way stated in the thread
7 (?) not used in any race, but viable to use
3 still not viable to use (Aprettaz?, Parpaillon and of course Pic Maido)

Personally, I would like to see Cayolle in a monster Mercantour stage, another stage via Mont du Chat and Pierre Saint Martin via Station Issarbe. And a Superbagneres MTF and of course Granon as a MTF at regular intervals.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

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Knew someone was going to bring up that one up.

 

[Ulle97]

The Muur de Bretagne, Muur de Huy, Plumelec are some short uphill finishes that have been used but not hard enough to create significant gaps.

 

[OlavEH]

The Muur de Bretagne, Muur de Huy, Plumelec are some short uphill finishes that have been used but not hard enough to create significant gaps.

Hardly any gaps at all. At best 10-15 seconds for Huy, less for Bretagne.

The Tour should on the other hand have 1 or 2 tough medium mountain stages each year. And preferably not with a short and steep finish like Mende or worse; Belle Filles. A very short ramp of a km or so could be okay, but not more than that. The 2012 stage via Uchon to Le Creusot and the 2012 stage to Porrentruy are good examples.

A problem is that the bigger towns around Massif Central is not close to the best parts of the range, so when they on some occasions use the Massif it could be some underwhelming stuff like a Super Besse finish or a finish in Le-Puy-en-Velay or Saint Flour or something like that.

 

[Ulle97]

Was just looking at old Paris Nice profiles.
I was never aware of this Beaujolais region but it seems like Mont Brouilly and Chiroubles would be very interesting stages.

 

[OlavEH]

Btw, regarding the discussion in this thread, and claims about which routes were balanced or not, or what it takes to be called a balanced route, I had a look at some of the routes in the 1990s. Routes that are celebrated by some people on this forum. IMO, as much as 100-120 km of ITT (or even more) + TTT, needs at least 5 or 6 big mountain stages/MTFs or other difficult aspects like a long and difficult hilly/medium mountain stages. There should also be a fair amout of steeper climbs, the 6 % MTFs in the Tarentaise valley just favorizes the diesel climbers who also excel in time trials.

Note: I look at the routes from a 2022-perspetive. That means that routes that could have been used for big breakways back then, but would be much less likely to be so in 2022 is not included below. Examples are the long Pau mountain stages where they had some big climbs in the first part of the stage, but dozens of km of flat towards the finish in Pau.

1991:
135 km of ITT
Big mountain stage to Val Louron (Col d'Azet) via Portalet, Aubisque, Tourmalet and Aspin.
Alpe d'Huez MTF
Morzine finish via Joux-Plane
Aix-les-Bains finish via Revard
IMO, this doesn't even come close to being balanced. Three difficult mountain stages where it's possible or likely to gain rather minutes than seconds vs 135 km of ITT.

1992:
137 km of ITT and only to big mountain stages, to Sestriere and Alpe d'Huez. The first was one of the most difficult stages ever, but still........
This was a odd case since it was sort of a EU celebratory route. But it wasn't even close to being balanced. Most unbalanced route in modern history.

1993:
114 km of ITT.
Serre Chevalier finish via Galibier
Isola 2000 MTF via Izoard, Vars and Bonette.
232 km MTF to Pal via a bunch of climbs including Envalira and Ordino.
230 km MTF to Pla d'Adet via Bonaigua, Portillo, Peyresourde.
Three very big mountain stages here, but still not well enough balanced. A lot of 5-6 % climbs in the Pyrenees. Not much of 8+ % climbs. The type of climbs very much favorizes diesel climbers.

1994:
64 km of ITT + 47 km MTT
Hautacam MTF (unipuerto)
Luz Ardiden MTF via Peyresourde, Aspin and Tourmalet
Alpe d'Huez MTF
Val Thorens MTF via Glandon and Madeleine.
Cluses finish via Croix-Fry and Colombiere
This is fairly balanced. Tougher and steeper MTFs than the previous versions. Less ITT and a MTT. First balanced route in the 90s.

1995:
108 km of ITT
La Plagne MTF
Alpe d'Huez MTF via Madeleine and Croix de Fer
Mende HTF used for the first time
Guzet-Neige MTF via Port de Lers and Latrape.
Cauterets MTF via Mente, Aspet, Peyresourde, Aspin and Tourmalet
Close to being balanced, but La Plagne and Guzet-Neige are not the toughest and steepest MTFs. Excellent big last mountain stages. One more big mountain stage would have made it balanced.

1996:
73 km of ITT + 30 km of MTT
Les Arcs MTF
Sestriere MTF (originally) via Iseran, Galibier and Montgenevre
Hautacam MTF (unipuerto)
Long Pamplona mountain stage, but 60 flat km in the end.
Not balanced. Two big Alps stages, but MTFs are of gentle gradients. Hautacam was unipuerto stage. At least one more big mountain stages was needed to make it balanced, maybe two.

1997:
125 km of ITT
Loudenville finish via Soulor, Tourmalet, Aspin and Azet
Big Arcalis mountain stage via Envalira and Ordino.
Alpe d'Huez MTF
Courchevel MTF via Glandon and Madeleine
Morzine finish via Joux Plane.
This is at least close to being balanced. Total number of height meters is good. Should have been more steeper climbs than Joux-Plan.

1998:
116 km of ITT
Bagneres de Luchon finish via Aubisque, Tourmalet, Aspin and Peyresourde.
Plateau de Beille MTF
Les Deux Alpes MTF via Iseran and Galibier
Albertville finish via several climbs including Madeleine
Aix-les-Bains finish via Chatillion and Revard.
Fairly balanced. Several big mountain stages incl. and epic Iseran + Galibier stage. Best balanced route in the 90s after 1994.

1999:
120 km of ITT
Sestriere MTF via Galibier and Montgenevre
Alpe d'Huez MTF Mont Cenis and Croix de Fer.
Piau Engaly MTF via Aspet, Mente, Portillon, Peyresourde and Azet
Three big mountain stages is not enough. Should have been at least one more, perhaps two or a big MTF.

So of 9 versions, I would say that 2 were fairly balanced while two more are close. The rest are not. And to a big advantage for the diesel climbers and good time trialists. A balanced route with that much time trial as all of these versions would not only require a fairly big amount of height meters and multi-climb stages, but also more difficult climbs the Envalira and the Andorran ski stations, Courchevel, Luz Ardiden, etc. Inclusions of at least a couple of tougher climbs/MTFs in each version like Ventoux, Portet, Grand Colombier, Mont du Chat, Granon and the Romme-Colombiere combo would be necessary.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Whilst those 90's routes mentioned would be mostly unbalanced if copied today (especially due to an apparent reduced number of hilly/medium mountain stages also), it's worth considering the possibility that they weren't generally unbalanced for the time. You mention that there were too many 5-6% tempo grinding climbs, but for the reduced depth in the peloton (and in the GC teams) they probably did their job most of the time. In today's peloton, if you get down to 5-10 riders surviving (with no teammates) and they have a 15 km climb at 5% to go, we will probably see very interesting racing.

You don't get that though when you have a Kwiatkowski type of all around talent sacrificing their best years merely doing the donkey work for a teammate. In the 90's he probably would have led his own team as a stage hunter, and might even have harboured minor gc ambitions of his own if he gained enough early time in TT's and crosswinds (more flat stages then, and most climbers didn't have a 'Kwiatkowski' to protect them). He certainly isn't wasting all his energy carrying the peloton halfway up a 6% climb at the end of a multi mountain stage.

Without those level of super domestiques, attacking riders of the past might have looked at parcours that we call dog vomit, because "look at all that valley between the final two climbs"; and seen opportunity, "because look at all that lovely valley between the final two climbs".

At least if they were a Pogacar or Remco climber who could also time trial.

Teams became far stronger, and stages became shorter.

Smaller teams (I like 6 riders per team), and longer stages (especially in the high mountains), and you can have 100 kms of ITT and a balance route with today's peloton.

 

[Netserk]

1992:
137 km of ITT and only to big mountain stages, to Sestriere and Alpe d'Huez. The first was one of the most difficult stages ever, but still........
This was a odd case since it was sort of a EU celebratory route. But it wasn't even close to being balanced. Most unbalanced route in modern history.

Where a pure climber was second overall. And the winner was not only by far the best TTer, and the best all-rounder, he was arguably the best climber or as good a climber as the runner-up. Indurain distanced Bugno with more than a minute to Sestriere. He was no Wiggins.

 

[OlavEH]

Where a pure climber was second overall. And the winner was not only by far the best TTer, and the best all-rounder, he was arguably the best climber or as good a climber as the runner-up.

Because of one BIG breakway where he very likely was loaded with clinic related stuff.

 

[OlavEH]

Whilst those 90's routes mentioned would be mostly unbalanced if copied today (especially due to an apparent reduced number of hilly/medium mountain stages also), it's worth considering the possibility that they weren't generally unbalanced for the time. You mention that there were too many 5-6% tempo grinding climbs, but for the reduced depth in the peloton (and in the GC teams) they probably did their job most of the time. In today's peloton, if you get down to 5-10 riders surviving (with no teammates) and they have a 15 km climb at 5% to go, we will probably see very interesting racing.

Partially agree here, but there were still versions in the 90s that IMO was not balanced at all. No more than the last years where a lack of ITT has been a constant topic of complaint for some. And in today's sport it would take a very large amount of mountains and clmbs to make a balanced route. Just to illustrate the amount I think would be needed, I would say that with 110-120 km of ITT, you would at least need something like the following mountain stages to balance.

Big 200 km+ Andorra stage including Pailheres, Envalira, Beixalis and a descent finish to Andorra la Vella.
Classic Pyrenees MTF to Luz Ardiden via Peyresourde, Aspin and Tourmalet.
Classic Alpe d'Huez MTF via Galibier and Croix de Fer
200+ km Alps stage to Morzine via Roseland, Saisies, Aravis, Colombiere and Joux Plane.
Grand Colombier via Biche (and more climbs before that).

+1-2 good medium mountain stages incl. a HTF to a place like Mende, Mont Faron, etc.

That means a total of 5 multiple mountain stages where at least two are also as long as 200km+. And several stages with steep climbs to make it more difficult for diesel climbers (if some of these were present).

 

[Netserk]

Because of one BIG breakway where he very likely was loaded with clinic related stuff.

If he arrived with Indurain, the GC wouldn't change. He could have lost 5 minutes there and still have been 2nd overall.

 

[Bolder]

Returning to the present, I just got my invitation to the Etape du Tour, having done it before. It's the Annemasse-Morzine stage, which for some reason looks a lot harder than I thought.

3 cat 1s plus an HC is nothing to sniff at. And there's almost no flat, with the exception of Taninges-Samoens between Ramaz and Joux Plane.

Only complaint is that it's "just" 152 kms -- add 40 more and we'd have a real epic.