2023 Tour de France route rumors

[Andy schleck]

besides as a fourth point, they probably learned from last year that Pog not can do everything on his own. Attacking wherever possible, and closing gaps himself as well from week 1. With this lesson from last year and a stronger team, the changes are much smaller that he will get tricked in doing to much work. His time losses on Granon and Hautacam were after a stage he got tricked to ride to hard on Galibier and one after he tried to attack for 2 days in a row.

So, if Jumbo wins 30 seconds - 1 minute in the TTT, Pog is still in a much better situation than last year after Galibier.

We have to wait for the final route, but it look like there will be quite some stages that probably suit Pog more than Vingegaard, like the 2 bask stages with short steep climbs. If riding smarter Pog will be able to catch more bonus seconds. And will have a team that can take initiative, even against a strong Jumbo.

Pogi will need a better team, it will help. But the most important thing, is the capacity to drop vingegaard, if the rumours of the TTT are true.

 

[Netserk]

Pont d'espagne is a better finish than cauterets. But, even cauterets is a proper finish, because could "force" riders to attack on Tourmalet.
I like that kind of stages with a HC climb and next a more easy climb. Like finestre/sestriere for example.

No. Not after Tourmalet that early in the race.

 

[gavia88]

I don't think they'll outperform Jumbo on any terrain unless Roglic crashes out.

Arguably Jumbo's only weak spot is Kuss' consistency.

well, even last year they had a few day which day were better then Jumbo. Like the val-louron - peyresourde stage. And at that point they only had 4 or 5 riders left. So, I agree, on average Jumbo is the better (balanced) team. But with the extra quality and probably better shape of some riders (no covid), I would not be surprised that they can put more pressure on Jumbo when they have a weaker moment (they had a few last tour).

The final strenght of both teams of course depends on injuries/illness before the tour and if Jumbo sends Roglich to the tour and if UAE sends Almeido/ Ayuso to the Giro/Vuelta again.

 

[pman]

I don't think they'll outperform Jumbo on any terrain unless Roglic crashes out.

Arguably Jumbo's only weak spot is Kuss' consistency.

Yeah, I am with Red Rick on this. Sure, the UAE additions will help make the race more closely matched in the mountains but they don't do much to help in the TTT. Jumbo is arguably more dominant 1st through 8 than Sky/Ineos was during the height of their dominance. The question is, why put a TTT in a race, which is something utterly unnecessary simply to help a team that is already dominant. Again I say, unless you're a Jumbo partisan, it doesn't make much sense to root for a TTT.

I also don't buy the argument that the hilly, classics type stages are enough to even out the course design. All Jumbo has to do is tell Ving to ride WVE's wheel and any Pog time gain will be minimized. Jumbo is as good as any team in the hills and mountains as well.

With all that said, we might simply be in an era of Jumbo dominance so course design might not matter. The one variable being if Pog was sick last year and we just don't know about it. The heat probably also impacted him as well. Who knows. Either way, I don't see the benefit in a long TTT, especially coming from a group of organizers who refuse to embrace a long ITT.

 

[gavia88]

Yeah, I am with Red Rick on this. Sure, the UAE additions will help make the race more closely matched in the mountains but they don't do much to help in the TTT. Jumbo is arguably more dominant 1st through 8 than Sky/Ineos was during the height of their dominance. The question is, why put a TTT in a race, which is something utterly unnecessary simply to help a team that is already dominant. Again I say, unless you're a Jumbo partisan, it doesn't make much sense to root for a TTT.

I also don't buy the argument that the hilly, classics type stages are enough to even out the course design. All Jumbo has to do is tell Ving to ride WVE's wheel and any Pog time gain will be minimized. Jumbo is as good as any team in the hills and mountains as well.

With all that said, we might simply be in an era of Jumbo dominance so course design might not matter. The one variable being if Pog was sick last year and we just don't know about it. The heat probably also impacted him as well. Who knows. Either way, I don't see the benefit in a long TTT, especially coming from a group of organizers who refuse to embrace a long ITT.

The reason to put in a TTT is because it's a beautifull aspect of cycling and part of the tours DNA. In the 80's they did 2 TTT per tour.

I have to admit that I'm not a particular fan from the point of fairness for the individual rider in a poorer (money wise) team. But I argue here against the idea that Jumbo can cruise to Paris after the TTT. Jumbo is strong, but showed in tour, vuelta and giro weaknesses as well at certain points in the race the last years. In all of them, even in the tour they won last year. Roglic can choose to go to the Giro, which weakens the tour team as well. UAE will be stronger in the mountains and medium mountains next year and Vingegaard is a strong rider, but more 1-dimentional than Pog, who has more qualities than Vingegaard. Which means he can win time outside the mountain finishes as well. And can take more boni seconds.

 

[Red Rick]

Almeida wants to go Giro again, so Pog may not get that top climbing domestique after all

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I don‘t think this assumption that the balance of power between the riders in the race will be similar is a solid enough starting point for a debate. I guess this is what this thread is about besides Utopian Dreamers United and getting angry at the route once it‘s revealed but I must admit it does seem utterly pointless to me. Although that might be a general realization I‘m making about this forum.

 

[gavia88]

The reason to put in a TTT is because it's a beautifull aspect of cycling and part of the tours DNA. In the 80's they did 2 TTT per tour.

I have to admit that I'm not a particular fan from the point of fairness for the individual rider in a poorer (money wise) team. But I argue here against the idea that Jumbo can cruise to Paris after the TTT. Jumbo is strong, but showed in tour, vuelta and giro weaknesses as well at certain points in the race the last years. In all of them, even in the tour they won last year. Roglic can choose to go to the Giro, which weakens the tour team as well. UAE will be stronger in the mountains and medium mountains next year and Vingegaard is a strong rider, but more 1-dimentional than Pog, who has more qualities than Vingegaard. Which means he can win time outside the mountain finishes as well. And can take more boni seconds.

Almeida wants to go Giro again, so Pog may not get that top climbing domestique after all

Pog
Yates
Majka
McNulty
Benett
Formolo / Soler/ Grossscharter
Trentin/Wellens
Bjerg/Hirshi/Laengen/Novak

* reserve: Almeida and Ayuso

VS

Vingegaard
Roglic (but he can choose to go to the Giro, like Almeida)
Kuss
Kruijswijk / Kelderman / Oomen
van Aert
Dennis / van Baarle / Foss
Benoot / la Porte
van Hooijdonk/ Tratnik

Without Roglic the difference uphill is not even that big. Kuss potentially is better uphill than UAE helpers, but is really inconsistant. Kruijswijk is good, but it is already a long time we saw the best Kruijswijk. Kelderman didn't impressed last year. Neither Oomen.

I really guess it depends of the Giro line-up from both teams, to know the difference in strenght for both teams. If for example, Roglic want to go to the Giro and want support I guess Kelderman and/ or Oomen, Foss and Tratnik will ride the Giro as well.

 

[gavia88]

I don‘t think this assumption that the balance of power between the riders in the race will be similar is a solid enough starting point for a debate. I guess this is what this thread is about besides Utopian Dreamers United and getting angry at the route once it‘s revealed but I must admit it does seem utterly pointless to me. Although that might be a general realization I‘m making about this forum.

If 1 of Pog or Vingagaard is clearly better than the other, this discussion is utterly pointless indeed. Both if power of both are very close, like last year. Team and TTT of course have impact on the balance between them.

 

[pman]

The reason to put in a TTT is because it's a beautifull aspect of cycling and part of the tours DNA. In the 80's they did 2 TTT per tour.

I have to admit that I'm not a particular fan from the point of fairness for the individual rider in a poorer (money wise) team. But I argue here against the idea that Jumbo can cruise to Paris after the TTT. Jumbo is strong, but showed in tour, vuelta and giro weaknesses as well at certain points in the race the last years. In all of them, even in the tour they won last year. Roglic can choose to go to the Giro, which weakens the tour team as well. UAE will be stronger in the mountains and medium mountains next year and Vingegaard is a strong rider, but more 1-dimentional than Pog, who has more qualities than Vingegaard. Which means he can win time outside the mountain finishes as well. And can take more boni seconds.

I don't think it's fair to bring up the Giro and Vuelta with Jumbo. They, like their leader JV, have proven that the Tour is their main goal and the other grand tours are after thoughts. Basically they sent their B team to support Roglic in the Vuelta. Maybe they throw Roglic at the Giro because they're that confident in Jonas but let's not pretend like Jumbo at the Tour de France is anything similar to Jumbo in any other race. Jumbo is a team built to dominate the Tour and their biggest advantage over the other teams come with the TTT.

I do understand the history of the TTT at the Tour. There's precedent for a lot of things at the Tour. They used to have 8 sprint stages in the first 10 days, I don't we should bring that back, just like I don't think we should bring back long TTTs.

If there's a 60 K TTT we have 3 chances for an exciting GC race. 1) Pog turns out to be the once in a generation talent some thought he was and was just off his game last year. 2) Other teams like Bernal's Ineos/ Remco's Quickstep are in the GC race late so Jumbo has to defend against 3 strong teams and 3 strong GC threats. That might make for a fun GC race. 3) Roglic skips the Giro and we have a inter Jumbo battle between Primoz and Jonas. Short of those 3 scenarios, gifting Jumbo 2 minutes at the start of the race probably results in an relatively boring GC battle. Unless of course you love Jumbo in which case, the race will be exciting to you. Which leads me back to saying, a long TTT doesn't make sense for anybody who doesn't blindly root for Jumbo. A 30 K TTT, that might give Jumbo a 30-65 second edge, fine. But more than 30 K and it just seems pointless and harmful to the competitiveness of the race.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

If there's a 60 K TTT we have 3 chances for an exciting GC race.

I have no idea where this ultra long TTT talk comes from.

(Ultra long by today's standards, for Bavarian Rider and others)

But if it is, in fact, a long one, real time deficits will likely be cut in half. It's highly unlikely that ASO wants to put Pog at 1:30 or more

 

[pman]

I have no idea where this ultra long TTT talk comes from.

(Ultra long by today's standards, for Bavarian Rider and others)

But if it is, in fact, a long one, real time deficits will likely be cut in half. It's highly unlikely that ASO wants to put Pog at 1:30 or more

I am not sure where the talk of a long TTT came from. I think someone figured out the distance from the likely start and finish town of the TTT (stage 6) is more than 30 k.

 

[sir fly]

It's not about the TTT's length, but about the teams' strength.

 

[Andy schleck]

Almeida wants to go Giro again, so Pog may not get that top climbing domestique after all

Let's see what the team wants. Probably almeida wants the giro, and the team wants him at the tour. They will need to find an agreement.

 

[gavia88]

I am not sure where the talk of a long TTT came from. I think someone figured out the distance from the likely start and finish town of the TTT (stage 6) is more than 30 k.

nobody was talking about 60km. It's completely unclear yet. Nowadays a 30km TTT would already be considered long. Even if there will be a TTT is very uncertain.

 

[pman]

There are some rumors that the Bourg en Bresse stage will include the Col de l'Epine. That obviously isn't enough to prevent it from becoming a mass sprint stage however it might be a sign that the route from Moûtiers to Bourg en Bresse will be a hilly medium mountain day if they add a few more climbs into the route.

 

[gavia88]

There are some rumors that the Bourg en Bresse stage will include the Col de l'Epine. That obviously isn't enough to prevent it from becoming a mass sprint stage however it might be a sign that the route from Moûtiers to Bourg en Bresse will be a hilly medium mountain day if they add a few more climbs into the route.

that looks like just a sign that it will be a sprint stage. It's just the 'fastest' way to reach te Rhone valley. So flat from Moutiers till Chambery, than col de l'Epine, another small hill and than they reached the Rhone valley. A bit Giro style, when to go from some town in the alps/dolomites back to the Po valley. They have early in the stage in that case in many cases some 1st category climb.

 

[gavia88]

another rumour from Velowire site:

Finish in Limoges at Avenue de Bénidictins 700 m à 5%

 

[pman]

another rumour from Velowire site:

Finish in Limoges at Avenue de Bénidictins 700 m à 5%

Yeah I saw that one too. That might be a gift to Pog though I think there are plenty of sprinters who could do fine with a 700m climb at 5% including someone like Ewan. Though kind of like with the Bourg en Bresse rumor it does make you wonder what they have in store for the rest of the Limoges stage. I do love the move away from the pure sprint stages.

 

[pman]

that looks like just a sign that it will be a sprint stage. It's just the 'fastest' way to reach te Rhone valley. So flat from Moutiers till Chambery, than col de l'Epine, another small hill and than they reached the Rhone valley. A bit Giro style, when to go from some town in the alps/dolomites back to the Po valley. They have early in the stage in that case in many cases some 1st category climb.

Interesting, yeah, that make sense.

 

[Red Rick]

Lol Pogacar at 700m 5%

 

[Escarabajo]

Is there any place where we can see the tentative parcours like in the Giro?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Yeah I saw that one too. That might be a gift to Pog though I think there are plenty of sprinters who could do fine with a 700m climb at 5% including someone like Ewan. Though kind of like with the Bourg en Bresse rumor it does make you wonder what they have in store for the rest of the Limoges stage. I do love the move away from the pure sprint stages.

The previous finish in Limoges was 500m at 5%, won by noted puncheur Marcel Kittel. Not hard enough for Pogacar unless the run-in is selective.

 

[pman]

Any thoughts on how hard it would be to get from Mâcon to Belleville-sur-Saone for a stage? I think the one in Belleville sounds like fun but all the hotels are booked there. Looks like a semi-frequent 20 minute train ride but I've never tried to stay in one town and take a train in and out of a stage town on race day before.

 

[gavia88]

The previous finish in Limoges was 500m at 5%, won by noted puncheur Marcel Kittel. Not hard enough for Pogacar unless the run-in is selective.

well the difference is that they came more from the north. Now they will come from the south-west. Where are at least more possibilities to add something.

However, with bask stages, early pyrenees and puy de dome the next day, it would not be surprising if ASO choose to neglect all hilly terrain around Limoges and go for a sprint stage with just a tough sprint uphill (day before Bordeaux will be a completely flat sprint).


Kind of comparable in 1995 they came from south west as well. Stage late in the tour won by Lance Armstrong. Early in the tour next year, this profile would be a sprint.

In 1988 the approach was from the west and the finale somewhat more entertaining profile wise.

So, option like 1995 is most likely. But somethink link in 1988 is possible as well. But the area is hilly enough to make it more interesting, but not likely.