Tour de France 2023 Tour de France, Stage 1: Bilbao - Bilbao, 182 km (Spain, Saturday, July 1)

[gregrowlerson]

Hard to see the final parts of this stage not being raced hard. We know that Vingegaard is in good form, and whilst I doubt he will win the stage, I think he'll be interested in testing Pogacar, and taking time on a strong 3rd week rider like Hindley if he can.

I don't see MVDP surviving those final two climbs and WVA doesn't appear to be at 100% yet.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I mean if GC guys are dropping each other then usually other guys dont have much of a shot to hang on.

Pog and Vingegaard not cooperating and bonus seconds being removed may change race dynamics though

Mur de Bretagne usually has gaps between the GC riders (in 2021 Roglic, Pogacar and Kelderman (lol) dropped the other GC guys), didn't stop Van der Poel from dropping the lot of them and winning. Of course that was only 2k at 6.9% but GC riders dropping each other doesn't preclude puncheurs from being competitive.

 

[Red Rick]

Mur de Bretagne usually has gaps between the GC riders (in 2021 Roglic, Pogacar and Kelderman (lol) dropped the other GC guys), didn't stop Van der Poel from dropping the lot of them and winning. Of course that was only 2k at 6.9% but GC riders dropping each other doesn't preclude puncheurs from being competitive.

MdB is where tactics and acceleration on a 5% gradient dominate. Plus its under 4 minutes without any 10min + climbs before.

IMO its telling that when the Worlds had a similar circuit to this MvdP didnt evem show up

 

[Rob5091]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673292027176394752

View: https://twitter.com/BenjiNaesen/status/1673292027176394752


If you look at the time schedule of stage 1, it's already been cut out. So should be true.

It's still on the profile & no one's changed it in the rules, nothing on Official website or Twitter.

 

[Potomac]

The Danes will draw straws the night before to see who gets to win the stage.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Love to see Pidcock take the first yellow. I also think it will be to hard for some puncheurs, the climbers will be leading over the Pike.

No Bagioli for Quickstep, hasn't Jakobsen got enough leadout guys.

Pidcock is a qualified pick IMO!

 

[Potomac]

GC riders will let the break go.

 

[gunara]

All teams have been announced. Only 7 Italian riders will take the start.
Should be the lowest number in 40 years, which tells a lot about the state of Italian cycling.

35 in 2003, 18 in 2013, with 9-man team, but still... Number of Spanish riders also dwindle dramatically, but you can say things are not as worrying

 

[gregrowlerson]

35 in 2003, 18 in 2013, with 9-man team, but still... Number of Spanish riders also dwindle dramatically, but you can say things are not as worrying

It's also because European cycling has slowly become more and more international.

 

[perico]

Meanwhile everyone is missing the real dangerman, Enric Mas.

If he’s over his diarrhea that he was suffering from at the Dauphine he’d be a decent bet if his form is better.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

35 in 2003, 18 in 2013, with 9-man team, but still... Number of Spanish riders also dwindle dramatically, but you can say things are not as worrying

It’s more about cycling expanding past the core countries. We probably have the highest contingent of non-Europeans at the start line we have ever had, or somewhere close to that.

 

[Potomac]

Will any GC gaps be created among the GC favorites in this stage?

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Will any GC gaps be created among the GC favorites in this stage?

If it is raced hard possibly, but I don’t see Pogi and Vingo being separated unless something insane happens.

 

[Nick2413]

It’s more about cycling expanding past the core countries. We probably have the highest contingent of non-Europeans at the start line we have ever had, or somewhere close to that.

It seems worrying given that the entire sport basically takes place in a few cycling crazed countries that are slowly becoming irrelevant in the sport. But who knows maybe that means nothing.

 

[Earns1985]

GC riders will let the break go.

Hmmm, it´s the first stage and that one nearly never goes to the break in the Tour de France. But it´s also true, that we rarely had a stage like this one.

The problem is, that everybody starts with the same time in GC in the stage and the GC teams can´t estimate, which rider in a break could be a potential threat in the GC later on. So it´s more likely that the peleton will chase than in other stages.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

MdB is where tactics and acceleration on a 5% gradient dominate. Plus its under 4 minutes without any 10min + climbs before.

IMO its telling that when the Worlds had a similar circuit to this MvdP didnt evem show up

yet seems set on trying at least.

I think a lot depends on how the stage is raced. If they all go looking at eachother MVDP will survive. If somebody like Pogacar goes full then there's no shot. Even in the part between Pike and final climb.

 

[Statze2]

yet seems set on trying at least.

I think a lot depends on how the stage is raced. If they all go looking at eachother MVDP will survive. If somebody like Pogacar goes full then there's no shot. Even in the part between Pike and final climb.

I think no GC guy will burn the Energy there for a Stage win and some seconds advantage over the other GC guys.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Riders per nationality 2023 compared with 2003

Ever decreasing numbers...

French: 32/40
Spain: 14/42
Italy: 7/35
German: 7/15
USA!: 6/8
Russian: 0/5
Swiss: 2/5
Czech: 0/2
Ukrainian: 0/2
Croatian: 0/1

Improved numbers

Dutch: 14/7
Belgian: 21/8
Columbia: 5/4
UK: 7/1
Denmark: 11/4
Austrian: 6/4
Anzac: 14/7
Slovenian: 3/1
Luxembourgish: 3/1
Norway: 9/1
Por: 3/1
Kazakhstan: 2/1
Can: 3/0
Polish: 2/0
Costa Rica: 1/0
Ecuador!: 1/0
Slovakia: 1/0
Ethiopia 1/0

Same
RSA 1/1
Latvian: 1/1

Tells the story of the decline in spanish and italian teams & the rise of Belgian & the anglosphere.

 

[Izzyeviel]

I think no GC guy will burn the Energy there for a Stage win and some seconds advantage over the other GC guys.

Did you not watch the tour last year?

 

[Rackham]

This will be a very hectic, hard fought stage. Lots of crash risks as well.

We know what the first few stages of the Tour are usually like & there's a yellow jersey to be won here. It would be huge for any team, so I don't think we're getting a break win unless it's a huge one with enough riders from every team represented at the front.

Alaphilippe for example will be going for the stage win, for sure. So we've got tight Basque narrow roads, stage win & first yellow jersey up for grabs + GC fight + Jumbo always going for stages (Niermann in the car will make sure of this).

It should be fun.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Riders per nationality 2023 compared with 2003

Ever decreasing numbers...

French: 32/40
Spain: 14/42
Italy: 7/35
German: 7/15
USA!: 6/8
Russian: 0/5
Swiss: 2/5
Czech: 0/2
Ukrainian: 0/2
Croatian: 0/1

Improved numbers

Dutch: 14/7
Belgian: 21/8
Columbia: 5/4
UK: 7/1
Denmark: 11/4
Austrian: 6/4
Anzac: 14/7
Slovenian: 3/1
Luxembourgish: 3/1
Norway: 9/1
Por: 3/1
Kazakhstan: 2/1
Can: 3/0
Polish: 2/0
Costa Rica: 1/0
Ecuador!: 1/0
Slovakia: 1/0
Ethiopia 1/0

Same
RSA 1/1
Latvian: 1/1

Tells the story of the decline in spanish and italian teams & the rise of Belgian & the anglosphere.

well those years had a ton of italian and spanish sponsored teams. Those are nearly all gone

 

[yaco]

Pogacar and Vingegard might be favourites for the first stage but is it in their inetrest to obtain the yellow already...

They keep it for stage 2, then stage 3 and 4 are controlled by the sprinter teams and give it away on stage 5 or 6.

 

[Earns1985]

Really looking forward to the race!
Interesting is also that we will have a few teams with sprinters who can survive hills and not so difficult mountains (Trek, Intermarche, Alpecin), so that it will also be interesting how all the transitional stages (like Stages 3, 8, 10, 11, 12, 19) will be ridden.

 

[Andy schleck]

This will be a very hectic, hard fought stage. Lots of crash risks as well.

We know what the first few stages of the Tour are usually like & there's a yellow jersey to be won here. It would be huge for any team, so I don't think we're getting a break win unless it's a huge one with enough riders from every team represented at the front.

Alaphilippe for example will be going for the stage win, for sure. So we've got tight Basque narrow roads, stage win & first yellow jersey up for grabs + GC fight + Jumbo always going for stages (Niermann in the car will make sure of this).

It should be fun.

I believe this year, there will be less crashes because the first real mountain stage will come soon, it will be stage 5. Normally after the first real mountain stage, there's less crashes.

 

[tobydawq]

MdB is where tactics and acceleration on a 5% gradient dominate. Plus its under 4 minutes without any 10min + climbs before.

IMO its telling that when the Worlds had a similar circuit to this MvdP didnt evem show up

That was a massive mistake, though.