49th Amstel Gold Race, 20 April 2014 (WT) 251km

[Buffalo Soldier]

Very difficult race to predict, with entirely different riders than the previous weeks.

Except for Bjorn Leukemans. The most consistent rider of the spring classics.

 

[theyoungest]

They won KBK, De Panne, Dwars, and Roubaix. 3 in the top 10 at Flanders, podium at Sheldeprijs, etc. Plenty of teams wish they had that disappointing of a classics season.

In the two biggest classics they were far from dominant. In the final of Roubaix, eventually everything fell the right way for them, but when the strongest went they had one guy up there. That's not what I call dominance.

As much as I would love it to happen, I don't think it'll happen. Martin and Hesjedal don't seem to be in their top form ATM. Nuyens, Dekker and Wegmann are not the riders they all used to be. I wouldn't be surprised not to see any of their riders finishing within top10 in AGR. Although Slagter and Navardauskas do seem to be in form, they don't have any achievements in the Ardennes, yet.

Yes, form-wise and distance-wise there are quite a few question marks, and AGR maybe isn't the ideal race for them. But by LBL I expect Martin, Hesjedal, Slagter to be on top of their game, and then they're quite dangerous. Slagter should be one of the favourites for Fleche.

I wasn't talking about Dekker of course, although AGR still seems to suit him (probably the only race on the calendar that does).

 

[Panda Claws]

In the two biggest classics they were far from dominant. In the final of Roubaix, eventually everything fell the right way for them, but when the strongest went they had one guy up there. That's not what I call dominance.

Who did you consider the strongest?

 

[Netserk]

(I know you didn't ask me) Imo Vanmarcke was the strongest, but it's hard to compare how strong Boonen (a lot more active), Stybar (held back due to tactics, but was never in troubles) and Terpstra was (tactics and positioning).

What we clearly can say imho is that Vanmarcke was slightly stronger than Canc (but not much), and that Boonen was stronger than both Hushovd and Thomas. Other than that there weren't many 101, so it's hard to judge.

 

[theyoungest]

Who did you consider the strongest?

The 4 guys who were ahead until about 8 k to go.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

You mean the ones who attacked at 15 k and couldn't defend the gap against 6 "weaker" riders for more than 7 k ?

 

[Netserk]

You mean the ones who attacked at 15 k and couldn't defend the gap against 6 "weaker" riders for more than 7 k ?

They sat up due to bad cooperation. They could easily defend the gap if they wanted to imo.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Could would should. Only three persons in the whole race showed something: Boonen, Sagan and Terpstra.
Vanmarcke strong? Maybe, he told he was, but he definitely didn't show it/

 

[theyoungest]

They sat up due to bad cooperation. They could easily defend the gap if they wanted to imo.

This. Although that's where the 'strength' of OPQS came into play: Stybar didn't do any work.

 

[Rollthedice]

Isn't the race supposed to be on Saturday, 19th? And do we have some confirmations about who will participate?

 

[BigMac]

Isn't the race supposed to be on Saturday, 19th? And do we have some confirmations about who will participate?

The race is Sunday the 20th. The names in the poll are certain unless an injury takes them out. Check PCS's provisional startlist for more info.

As of now, Bardiani, TREK, Team Sky, Giant-Shimano, Europcar, Belkin and AG2R are the only teams with their roster confirmed.

 

[hfer07]

Checking the start list, there are just a handful names that are truly favorites among the rest of the Peloton, starting with Valverde-which is to me the one to win it. Then there are KWIATKOWSKI & Gerrans whose late performances indicate they're in form to get the results. I honestly do not believe Gilbert is at the level to be considered a winner candidate for this race-even with his recent victory at the DBP- not good enough in my eyes to challenge an In-form Valverde & Kwiat.

The dark horses are VAN AVERMAET, Voeckler, "G" & Iglinskiy. Apart from them I expect some attacks from Nibbs & Cunego, maybe Swift & Samu give a go, but unlikely to happen...

 

[Netserk]

Checking the start list, there are just a handful names that are truly favorites among the rest of the Peloton, starting with Valverde-which is to me the one to win it. Then there are KWIATKOWSKI & Gerrans whose late performances indicate they're in form to get the results. I honestly do not believe Gilbert is at the level to be considered a winner candidate for this race-even with his recent victory at the DBP- not good enough in my eyes to challenge an In-form Valverde & Kwiat.

The dark horses are VAN AVERMAET, Voeckler, "G" & Iglinskiy. Apart from them I expect some attacks from Nibbs & Cunego, maybe Swift & Samu give a go, but unlikely to happen...

1) AFAIK GVA doesn't start. 2) BMC (including Samu) will be all-in for Gilbert.

 

[BigMac]

I don't think Gerrans late performances indicate anything at all. If anything, they tell us he will suck.

His last races were De Brabantse Pijl where he finished 46, País Vasco where he DNF'd, La Rioja where he also DNF'd, and P-N where he DNF'd as well. Before those he finished 113th in Camaiore. Those don't mean he's going to perform bad, since last year he DNF'd at PV and finished 3rd here in Amstel, but they don't indicate good form either.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Poels.. Slagter..

 

[Jspear]

Poels.. Slagter..

If Kwiatkowski is strong Poels will be riding in support for him. That could effect his own chances of winning.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I don't think Gerrans late performances indicate anything at all. If anything, they tell us he will suck.

His last races were De Brabantse Pijl where he finished 46, País Vasco where he DNF'd, La Rioja where he also DNF'd, and P-N where he DNF'd as well. Before those he finished 113th in Camaiore. Those don't mean he's going to perform bad, since last year he DNF'd at PV and finished 3rd here in Amstel, but they don't indicate good form either.

:facepalm: just stick to the clinic if you don;'t even watch cycling

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

I don't think Gerrans late performances indicate anything at all. If anything, they tell us he will suck.

His last races were De Brabantse Pijl where he finished 46, País Vasco where he DNF'd, La Rioja where he also DNF'd, and P-N where he DNF'd as well. Before those he finished 113th in Camaiore. Those don't mean he's going to perform bad, since last year he DNF'd at PV and finished 3rd here in Amstel, but they don't indicate good form either.

But if you watched Brabantse Pijl, you'd have seen that Gerrans was in pretty good shape. Results aren't everything.

 

[Metal earth]

Vanmarcke strong? Maybe, he told he was, but he definitely didn't show it/

Oh come on, that is definitely not true. In Flanders he was the only who could follow Canc and even managed to put him under pressure a couple of times. In Roubaix he attacked several times and showed to be one of the best/if not the best cobbles rider at the moment. He managed to drop most of the contenders and took charge of the peloton in virtually every cobbled section in the finale of the race. Somehow I get the feeling it must be pretty hard to impress you.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If Kwiatkowski is strong Poels will be riding in support for him. That could effect his own chances of winning.

OPQS said Poels is co-captain. Which I think is fully deserved considering Poels strength in the last 2 pv road stages

 

[BigMac]

:facepalm: just stick to the clinic if you don;'t even watch cycling

Are you insinuating he didn't finish in the 46th position? And your 'stick to the clininc' makes no sence at all since 99.9% of my posts are in the PRR section.

But if you watched Brabantse Pijl, you'd have seen that Gerrans was in pretty good shape. Results aren't everything.

Indeed they are not, that's why I also mentioned Gerrans last year not finishing País Vasco and then closing the podium in Amstel. But if hfer07 (whom I was responding to) doesn't think Gilbert is in good form to be a candidate, I don't know how it's possible to consider Gerrans.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Are you insinuating he didn't finish in the 46th position? And your 'stick to the clininc' makes no sence at all since 99.9% of my posts are in the PRR section.



Indeed they are not, that's why I also mentioned Gerrans last year not finishing País Vasco and then closing the podium in Amstel. But if hfer07 (whom I was responding to) doesn't think Gilbert is in good form to be a candidate, I don't know how it's possible to consider Gerrans.

I'm insinuating that it's bs to go by his 46th placement in brabantse pijl. you obviously didn't watch the race so it would've been better for you not to comment. he was one of the best in that race

 

[Panda Claws]

One of those 4 (Not very surprising picks)

* Philippe Gilbert: Advantage of terrain and has shown good form. Easily followed Valverde/Contador in the stage T. Martin won and finished a strong (for him) 25th.
* Alejandro Valverde: Was strong in VPV.
* Michal Kwiatkowski: Same as Valverde.
* Simon Gerrans: Showed form in Brabantse Pijl, but nothing else. Does not have the same quality as the others.

 

[BigMac]

I'm insinuating that it's bs to go by his 46th placement in brabantse pijl. you obviously didn't watch the race so it would've been better for you not to comment. he was one of the best in that race

You don't seem like the best person to lecture anyone on what is bull**** and what's not though . See my previous post and you'll know why I mentioned De Brabantse Pijl.

 

[the asian]

Cauberg isn't Valverde's favourite hill, so hope it stays that way.

Rooting for a Gilbert victory.

High chance that he will be in the lead at the top of the Cauberg, uncertainty is whether he has the form to stay clear of a chasing pack as he did in the Worlds'.