49th Amstel Gold Race, 20 April 2014 (WT) 251km

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Mollema in good shape is a last KM kind of guy, just look at his (small amount) of victories.. nearly always because of a good last km attack. The only time he won from further away was TdPologne when he attacked from 4km out.

Sort of the poor mans purito

 

[SafeBet]

There might be a question mark wrt Ulissi and longer distance classics. For me he has to prove himself first.

Cunego is clearly in great form (solid in PV), he could place high if the race plays out in his favor. Winning is a different matter I think. He would have to break free on Cauberg and hold the lead to the finish line. If hes in a group it could involve Valverde, Kwia, Gilbert and even Gerrans. It will be tough to beat them all in a sprint.

Agree on Ulissi.
Don't think Cunego is in such a good shape. He's ok, but far from the level he had when winning classics.

Best Italian bet for this race is still Gaspa imho.

 

[ILovecycling]

Valverde too.

probably yes,but it would be 1/1 I would say.

lol at you,you havent even read my post properly.I said illness is the reason he won't win,what's difficult to understand about that,he isnt 100%.

I did,but your argument is wrong,coz he is 100%,read articles about him,oge website,twitter and his quotes.Why would he hype himself then?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

There are probably a handful of guys who can win if it ends in a group sprint.
Only question is how many other riders are willing to see it happening?

Schelcks
Kreuziger
Mollema
etc.

out of thos eronly kreuziger could attack maybe

 

[Nathan12]

Wout Poels has a more than decent shot given his form.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Wout Poels has a more than decent shot given his form.

he will have to work for kwiatkowski

 

[theyoungest]

he will have to work for kwiatkowski

Poels is also not much of a classics rider. Not at all, actually.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yet he has been made co-leader and does not have to work for kwiatkowski at all.

 

[search]

he should better safe himself for wednesday anyway

 

[VeloHuman]

Yet he has been made co-leader and does not have to work for kwiatkowski at all.

I think this team is backing Kwiato, regardless of whatever they're saying. He's taliormade for this parcours. That doesn't mean they won't send other riders up the road though: Poels, Stybar, and Bakelants are great options to go from afar and force other teams to chase.

 

[Nathan12]

Poels is also not much of a classics rider. Not at all, actually.

He looked good at Brabantse Pijl though, plus specialisation doesn't matter so much in the Ardennes. Maybe more at Amstel than Liege, but still- if you can climb, have form and can bike handle then you have a chance.

 

[theyoungest]

He looked good at Brabantse Pijl though, plus specialisation doesn't matter so much in the Ardennes. Maybe more at Amstel than Liege, but still- if you can climb, have form and can bike handle then you have a chance.

Amstel is quite a specialist race, actually. Poels has been in form before, when going to the Ardennes classics, but somehow it's never led to any results.

Of course, it could all be different this week.

 

[Netserk]

I hope Poels will be 100% committed as dom for Kwia in Amstel. He has no chance to win it himself (imo), but could be the difference to help pull an attack back for Kwia over the last Cauberg. In Fleche and Liege however, he should be co-captain.

 

[jaylew]

This race and finish do not suit Purito. It's not steep enough.

Maybe not completely suited to him but he could still win. After all, he has finished 2nd here before and while the finish is different this year we've certainly seen an on-form Purito get a gap on the last climb of a race and hold it after going over the top.

 

[Tournesol]

[/QUOTE]I did,but your argument is wrong,coz he is 100%,read articles about him,oge website,twitter and his quotes.Why would he hype himself then?[/QUOTE]

I have seen his twitter,there is nothing there apart from congrats to Tony Martin and Bling at PV and Gilbert at Fleche Brabanconne.As for OGE website he says he's had a turbulent spring but feels final stage of his preparations for AGR have went well.

How all that translates to you knowing he's 100% is beyond me.He's 14-1 to win with PP,i suggest you lump on if you are so sure of his chances.Podium at best as i said in earlier post,not even convinced he could beat Valverde or Kwia in a sprint.

 

[Tournesol]

I did,but your argument is wrong,coz he is 100%,read articles about him,oge website,twitter and his quotes.Why would he hype himself then?

Gerrans twitter account says nothing apart from congrats to Tony Martin and Bling at PV and Gilbert at Fleche Brabanconne.OGE website says he's had a turbulent spring but his final preparations for AGR have went well.Nowhere does it say he's 100%.

Why would he hype himself? Maybe because he knows he's going well enough to do a good race.Podium at best as i said.If your so convinced he's the winner,you should get on at 14-1.Not even sure he could beat Valverde or Kwia in a sprint if it came to that but we'll see.

In the unlikely event that he does win,i'll be on here straight after the race offering you my fulsome praise.

 

[hfer07]

1) AFAIK GVA doesn't start. 2) BMC (including Samu) will be all-in for Gilbert.

But GVA is going
http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MjUyMzE=

and yes - BMC "Wrongfully" is supporting him.

 

[Jspear]

But GVA is going
http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MjUyMzE=

and yes - BMC "Wrongfully" is supporting him.

Wrongfully supporting GVA or Gilbert? If you're saying it's wrong to support Gilbert, who should they support? He seems to be on form right now. Who would be a better candidate from their team as the leader?

 

[hfer07]

I don't think Gerrans late performances indicate anything at all. If anything, they tell us he will suck.

His last races were De Brabantse Pijl where he finished 46, País Vasco where he DNF'd, La Rioja where he also DNF'd, and P-N where he DNF'd as well. Before those he finished 113th in Camaiore. Those don't mean he's going to perform bad, since last year he DNF'd at PV and finished 3rd here in Amstel, but they don't indicate good form either.

I think Ryo already responded to you, but Gerrans showed great form in De Brabantse Pijl-which indicates he's raising his level at the proper time for AGR. What we saw last Wednesday is that he was pulling the pace, marking all the attacks, and stayed in the front until the last spring- to do all those things he's showing great form

 

[hfer07]

Wrongfully supporting GVA or Gilbert? If you're saying it's wrong to support Gilbert, who should they support? He seems to be on form right now. Who would be a better candidate from their team as the leader?

I'm not entire convinced of Gilbert's form yet, regardless of his recent victory last Wednesday. I know he always perform well in AGR but there is a big difference between 203k won by a weak sprint & a 251K with a much more difficult parcours & competitive rivals. All I'm saying is GVA, even TJVG should have free role while Samu could venture in a breakaway........

just saying

 

[BigMac]

I think Ryo already responded to you, but Gerrans showed great form in De Brabantse Pijl-which indicates he's raising his level at the proper time for AGR. What we saw last Wednesday is that he was pulling the pace, marking all the attacks, and stayed in the front until the last spring- to do all those things he's showing great form

No Ryo didn't respond to my comment. He made a morronic exclamation without knowing what he was answering to. You say Gerrans is a favourite and Gilbert's not. That's what I don't understand and why I commented. Because overall, Gilbert has shown more form lately than Gerrans, who only did at De Brabantse Pijl.

 

[greenedge]

Apart from them I expect some attacks from Nibbs & Cunego, maybe Swift & Samu give a go, but unlikely to happen...

Swift is a nice sprinter to watch as he doesn't just always rely on his sprint but against the likes of Gilbert and Valverde, if he attacked the last time up the Cauberg he would be swallowed up. I think it would be better for him if he just tried to hold on then rely on his sprint.

 

[greenedge]

But Leukemans finished 5th, had been in the same break as Gerrans (doing much of the work) and was in a prior break as well. Point in case: it is not readily apparent whether Gerrans is really in top form or not and it definitely doesn't warrant behaving like an arrogant *** if someone here doubts Gerrans' form.

Leukemans is a good rider though (so it's not disparaging to Gerrans to say he was out-performed by him) and he does well at that race. Nathan Haas was also in that break and came 6th (as another rider- no idea what point i'm even trying to prove )

 

[VeloHuman]

I'm not entire convinced of Gilbert's form yet, regardless of his recent victory last Wednesday. I know he always perform well in AGR but there is a big difference between 203k won by a weak sprint & a 251K with a much more difficult parcours & competitive rivals. All I'm saying is GVA, even TJVG should have free role while Samu could venture in a breakaway........

just saying

I think he's on good form for 2014 Philippe Gilbert but I don't know that that's ever going to be at the level it used to be anymore. Will be interesting to see if it's enough.

 

[greenedge]

My rankings (with half the peleton to be included)

***** Valverde, Kwiatowski, Gerrans, Gilbert- Seems to be a common consensus

**** Cunego, Slagter, Gallopin, Bakelants, Poels, Voeckler, Swift

*** Chavanel, Rebellin, Leukemans, JROD, Moreno, Ulissi, Kreuziger, Gasparotto, Bozic, Matthews, Betancur

** Kolobnev, EBH, Battaglin, Colbrelli, Costa, Intxausti, Roy, Roux, Martin, Haas, Serry, Stybar, Geschke, Coquard, Clarke, Impey, Weening, Hoogerland, Martens, Nordhaug, GVA, Sanchez, Marcarto, Bardet, Nibali, Vanendert