49th Amstel Gold Race, 20 April 2014 (WT) 251km

[dlwssonic]

gilbert will always get a gap on the cauberg like in 2013 even without having good form. The thing is the new finish really is a disadvantage.
I don't know if he has the strength to hold of the pack...1.7km is really long.
In the worlds kolobnev, valverde and ebh weren't seriously chasing.
on the other hand he may have given up in 2013 on reaching kreuziger and may have decided just to go back to the pack.

 

[Jspear]

I'm insinuating that it's bs to go by his 46th placement in brabantse pijl. you obviously didn't watch the race so it would've been better for you not to comment. he was one of the best in that race

If someone is strong in a race, but then can't finish the job, it doesn't really matter if he was "one of the best" in the race.

 

[Beech Mtn]

:facepalm: just stick to the clinic if you don;'t even watch cycling

Saw this and thought of you, Ryo

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

If someone is strong in a race, but then can't finish the job, it doesn't really matter if he was "one of the best" in the race.

of course it matters if he was one of the best in tha race when looking to form for the next race

 

[Jagartrott]

of course it matters if he was one of the best in tha race when looking to form for the next race

I'll translate it for you: maybe he wasn't so strong if he wasn't there in the final. Matthews had to chase alone at the end and that cost him the victory.

 

[Kwibus]

I'll translate it for you: maybe he wasn't so strong if he wasn't there in the final. Matthews had to chase alone at the end and that cost him the victory.

I doesn't happen often that I agree with Ryo, but I do agree with him on this.
Everyone saying "but he wasn't there in the final" seem to have missed the race. Gerrans attacked from far out. If I recall correctly from about 40km to go. A few riders joined him eventually and he wanted to ride just like Leukemans wanted too. When the finish got near some in that break decided to sit on the wheels and eventually the break got caught with about 10km to go.
After that Gerrans did some major pulls to keep the bunch together for Matthews. That he eventually blew with 3km to go isn't that strange isn't it?

Gerrans got his eyes on next Sunday and probably Wednesday as well, maybe he even considers L-B-L as a target. So in that regard he rode a great race. For AGR he will be at the head of the team and no doubt he will be one of the fastest up the Cauberg.

 

[Jagartrott]

But Leukemans finished 5th, had been in the same break as Gerrans (doing much of the work) and was in a prior break as well. Point in case: it is not readily apparent whether Gerrans is really in top form or not and it definitely doesn't warrant behaving like an arrogant *** if someone here doubts Gerrans' form.

 

[Kwibus]

But Leukemans finished 5th, had been in the same break as Gerrans (doing much of the work) and was in a prior break as well. Point in case: it is not readily apparent whether Gerrans is really in top form or not and it definitely doesn't warrant behaving like an arrogant *** if someone here doubts Gerrans' form.

Yes, but Leukemans got to sit in the bunch once they got caught, while Gerrans started pulling the bunch pretty much directly after they got caught. BIG difference.

 

[VeloHuman]

But Leukemans finished 5th, had been in the same break as Gerrans (doing much of the work) and was in a prior break as well. Point in case: it is not readily apparent whether Gerrans is really in top form or not and it definitely doesn't warrant behaving like an arrogant *** if someone here doubts Gerrans' form.

Gerrans was taking some big pulls in the race, and when things got back together, his team had Matthews to ride for, so Gerrans didn't really need to hold on any longer. Leukemans, on the other hand, was the main option for WGG. In other words: I think Gerrans showed a return to form at BP.

 

[Tournesol]

Orica think Gerrans has a chance at AGR but recent illness will take its toll,terrific rider,squeezed the absolute most out of his career,great palmares,as tactically astute as they come,a hard worker,sets goals and achieves them,can't be written off on a parcours that suits him but he's not winning this.

The fractions are tiny at this level,he may podium but he'll be just a tad short here.Kwia or Gilbert is another matter,dangerous riders both with the form.Should be an exciting finish,looking forward to it.

 

[ILovecycling]

Orica think Gerrans has a chance at AGR but recent illness will take its toll,terrific rider,squeezed the absolute most out of his career,great palmares,as tactically astute as they come,a hard worker,sets goals and achieves them,can't be written off on a parcours that suits him but he's not winning this.

The fractions are tiny at this level,he may podium but he'll be just a tad short here.Kwia or Gilbert is another matter,dangerous riders both with the form.Should be an exciting finish,looking forward to it.

lol i dont know why he hasnt got a chance.he was second best rider up the cauberg last year and 3rd in 2011,and this finish suits him so well.Only who can beat him in the sprint is Kwia

 

[Netserk]

lol i dont know why he hasnt got a chance.he was second best rider up the cauberg last year and 3rd in 2011,and this finish suits him so well.Only who can beat him in the sprint is Kwia

Valverde too.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

lol i dont know why he hasnt got a chance.he was second best rider up the cauberg last year and 3rd in 2011,and this finish suits him so well.Only who can beat him in the sprint is Kwia

Indeed, Gerrans knows how to peak for the races he wants to win. Only thing that can mess with his chance is serious long distance attacks. Otherwise he will be very happy if it ended with a sprint.

Wait, wait, wait..... and Gerrans wins. Here we are from BP this year:

Its Gerrans with the sprinter legs.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Slagter could beat Gerrans if he's still up there after 250km that is

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Slagter could beat Gerrans if he's still up there after 250km that is

There are probably a handful of guys who can win if it ends in a group sprint.
Only question is how many other riders are willing to see it happening?

Schelcks
Kreuziger
Mollema
etc.

 

[Nin1388]

Both Valverde and Purito are in superb form and surely favorite to win.

 

[Valverdee]

Hey but what about Italian rider chances. From time to time rider from Italy (Cunego, Gasparotto, Di Luca) is having really good time on AGR. Maybe this year Ulissi or again Cunego.

 

[Kwibus]

There are probably a handful of guys who can win if it ends in a group sprint.
Only question is how many other riders are willing to see it happening?

Schelcks
Kreuziger
Mollema
etc.

Dont worry about the Schlecks and Mollema. They will wait or cant attack.

 

[Kwibus]

Both Valverde and Purito are in superb form and surely favorite to win.

This race and finish do not suit Purito. It's not steep enough.

 

[Tournesol]

lol i dont know why he hasnt got a chance.he was second best rider up the cauberg last year and 3rd in 2011,and this finish suits him so well.Only who can beat him in the sprint is Kwia

lol at you,you havent even read my post properly.I said illness is the reason he won't win,what's difficult to understand about that,he isnt 100%.

 

[Ruby United]

Maybe sky should go for swift. Whilst I doubt him winning, with current form I can see him taking a top 3, or if it comes down to a sprint I would back him above ebh who can't win sprints now.days.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Dont worry about the Schlecks and Mollema. They will wait or cant attack.

So what are we looking at here. Two of them placed somewhere in the top 15?
Anyway the waiting game at this race can be mind boggling.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Hey but what about Italian rider chances. From time to time rider from Italy (Cunego, Gasparotto, Di Luca) is having really good time on AGR. Maybe this year Ulissi or again Cunego.

There might be a question mark wrt Ulissi and longer distance classics. For me he has to prove himself first.

Cunego is clearly in great form (solid in PV), he could place high if the race plays out in his favor. Winning is a different matter I think. He would have to break free on Cauberg and hold the lead to the finish line. If hes in a group it could involve Valverde, Kwia, Gilbert and even Gerrans. It will be tough to beat them all in a sprint.

 

[Kwibus]

So what are we looking at here. Two of them placed somewhere in the top 15?
Anyway the waiting game at this race can be mind boggling.

Last year the race was quite open, but it's likely to be a waiting game again.

Mollema will wait until the Cauberg. I'm convinced of that, he's not that brave. I bet Nordhaug will go on the attack for Belkin again.

Frank Schleck could do well and I don't expect Andy at all.

 

[theyoungest]

Last year the race was quite open, but it's likely to be a waiting game again.

Mollema will wait until the Cauberg. I'm convinced of that, he's not that brave. I bet Nordhaug will go on the attack for Belkin again.

Frank Schleck could do well and I don't expect Andy at all.

Mollema is a very conservative rider indeed, but I'm not sure if a long range attack could really work for him.