49th Amstel Gold Race, 20 April 2014 (WT) 251km

[Jspear]

Matthews believes he can do well.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2014/04/news/matthews-hopes-to-bolster-season-wins-total-at-amstel-gold-race-and-giro_324754

 

[TommyPlus]

I don't understand the Kwia love in. Every time someone stepped on the pedals on an uphill section of PV he was in trouble.
I don't think he will make it over the Cauberg with the favourites and even if he does I think Valverde will do him in a sprint regardless

 

[Pippo_San]

This would be perfect for Ulissi if only the distance...
Oh well. La Ronca to fat his way to the top.

 

[Jspear]

I don't understand the Kwia love in. Every time someone stepped on the pedals on an uphill section of PV he was in trouble.
I don't think he will make it over the Cauberg with the favourites and even if he does I think Valverde will do him in a sprint regardless

http://www.steephill.tv/classics/amstel-gold-race/

Check out the climbs for this race. These aren't mountains, they are more like hills. Kwiatkowski is one of the fav's here because this is the type of terrain that favor's him. Remember Strade?....

 

[Afrank]

http://www.steephill.tv/classics/amstel-gold-race/

Check out the climbs for this race. These aren't mountains, they are more like hills. Kwiatkowski is one of the fav's here because this is the type of terrain that favor's him. Remember Strade?....

Plus he's been working towards peaking for the Ardennes. These races are one of his main goals of the season.

 

[Rollthedice]

I don't think we'll see a solo to victory, Cauberg is too short and there's almost 2 km to finish from there so it will be a selected riders sprint. It can be anyone's guess who will be in this group but I certainly see Valverde and Kwia in it. Oh, and Gilbert.

 

[ILovecycling]

Gerrans twitter account says nothing apart from congrats to Tony Martin and Bling at PV and Gilbert at Fleche Brabanconne.OGE website says he's had a turbulent spring but his final preparations for AGR have went well.Nowhere does it say he's 100%.

Why would he hype himself? Maybe because he knows he's going well enough to do a good race.Podium at best as i said.If your so convinced he's the winner,you should get on at 14-1.Not even sure he could beat Valverde or Kwia in a sprint if it came to that but we'll see.

In the unlikely event that he does win,i'll be on here straight after the race offering you my fulsome praise.

I already did on Thursday,so you dont have to say anything after the race,money will do the talking.

 

[theyoungest]

Plus he's been working towards peaking for the Ardennes. These races are one of his main goals of the season.

The main argument that Kwia can handle the course of the AGR is the fact that he got 4th last year

On the new course it's even more of a bunch sprint up the Cauberg than it used to be. Eijserbosweg has been marginalized, unfortunately.

 

[Tournesol]

I already did on Thursday,so you dont have to say anything after the race,money will do the talking.

Bold statement,very bold,i like your confidence.

 

[Arredondo]

I think Kwiat, Purito, Valverde and Gilbert are the guys to watch. Purito can win here, of course it isn't his best terrain, but he's capable off.

Perhaps he doesn't want to take the risks, and crash again like last year. That basically cost him the victory in FW en even LBL.

Curious also to see how Swift is managing this. Normally he can't win, because he cant follow the best guys on the Cauberg, and there are too less flat k's before the finish.

 

[Netserk]

I think Kwiat, Purito, Valverde and Gilbert are the guys to watch. Purito can win here, of course it isn't his best terrain, but he's capable off.

Perhaps he doesn't want to take the risks, and crash again like last year. That basically cost him the victory in FW en even LBL.

Curious also to see how Swift is managing this. Normally he can't win, because he cant follow the best guys on the Cauberg, and there are too less flat k's before the finish.

No he can't. What a disgrace to name him besides the other three. He got about the same chance as Poels, which is none. He won't be the fastest on Cauberg, he won't go before that, he is not strong enough on the flat to hold or create a gap, he cannot win from a reduced sprint against Kwia and Valverde.

Please describe to me a realistic winning scenario for Purito.

 

[ILovecycling]

Bold statement,very bold,i like your confidence.

Sometimes it is pretty dangerous tho

No he can't. What a disgrace to name him besides the other three. He got about the same chance as Poels, which is none. He won't be the fastest on Cauberg, he won't go before that, he is not strong enough on the flat to hold or create a gap, he cannot win from a reduced sprint against Kwia and Valverde.

Please describe to me a realistic winning scenario for Purito.

I think you are underestimating Purito a bit.I think he can be the fastest up the Cauberg.On other aspects I agree with you of course
imo his chances are very slim like you said.

 

[Netserk]

Sometimes it is pretty dangerous tho


I think you are underestimating Purito a bit.I think he can be the fastest up the Cauberg.On other aspects I agree with you of course
imo his chances are very slim like you said.

Avatar bet? I'll give you 10-1 odds

 

[ILovecycling]

Avatar bet? I'll give you 10-1 odds

I said he CAN not that I believe he WILL have (Gerro and Piti same chance imo) but ok,lets have some fun
1 week - 10 week of avatar picture?
As for the Cauberg time,we will measure just who will be first at the top (if there is not a breakaway), if they start to ride it in the same group (we won't consider positioning in the group on the "startline" of Cauberg).
Do you agree?

 

[ILovecycling]

Avatar bet? I'll give you 10-1 odds

No,sorry,I said he CAN,not that I believe he will.Gilbert,Piti and Gerro have the same chance imo.

 

[Pentacycle]

No he can't. What a disgrace to name him besides the other three. He got about the same chance as Poels, which is none. He won't be the fastest on Cauberg, he won't go before that, he is not strong enough on the flat to hold or create a gap, he cannot win from a reduced sprint against Kwia and Valverde.

Please describe to me a realistic winning scenario for Purito.

If you can be second in this race, you can win. Poels is still far from Purito's level, why this comparison?

Chances are slim however; only if the race is as hard as in 2011 Purito has a chance. He can win on the flat, when has he ever lost a classic because he was pulled back by a chasing group? He's either dropped or outsprinted most times.

 

[jaylew]

Yes, of course Purito could win. He my not be the top favorite but if he can finish 2nd and if he can stay away for the final 10k in Lombardia, he can win here.

And if he was 2nd fastest up the Cauberg to Gilbert during his magical year then he could certainly be fastest up it this year.

 

[Arredondo]

If you can be second in this race, you can win. Poels is still far from Purito's level, why this comparison?

Chances are slim however; only if the race is as hard as in 2011 Purito has a chance. He can win on the flat, when has he ever lost a classic because he was pulled back by a chasing group? He's either dropped or outsprinted most times.

If someone compares Purito with Poels, i can't describe how stupid that person is.

The guy who comes up first on the top of the Cauberg, has a big chance to win. It's only 1.5 k. I see Valverde also more as a favourite (although he peaked to soon), but Purito can climb the Cauberg really fast to.

 

[SafeBet]

If you can be second in this race, you can win. Poels is still far from Purito's level, why this comparison?

Chances are slim however; only if the race is as hard as in 2011 Purito has a chance. He can win on the flat, when has he ever lost a classic because he was pulled back by a chasing group? He's either dropped or outsprinted most times.

Indeed.
If he's in top form and the race is hard he'd have no problem in staying clear for a couple kms.


Not sure if anybody mentioned him before, but I could see Bardet doing very well here.

 

[CraZyCaLL]

I think Purito will take it easy tomorrow. This new finish more suits for Moreno. Maybe Purito even will work for Dani tomorrow

 

[Pentacycle]

Not sure if anybody mentioned him before, but I could see Bardet doing very well here.

That's why I picked Bardet on CQ. In the background he rode a great LBL debut last year, but his other Ardennes races could've been better had he not been tired out from riding Pais Vasco. He changed his schedule for the better, so he's one to watch out for. Guy with a huge engine.

 

[BigMac]

Saying Purito has the same chances of winning as Gilbert or Valverde is perplexing. I also see people underrating Costa without giving it an explanation or at least a reasonabe one.

Here's what is going to happen tomorrow:

- Kwiatkowski won't live up to the lol hype surrounding him.
- Costa will finish in the top five.

 

[Arredondo]

Saying Purito has the same chances of winning as Gilbert or Valverde is perplexing. I also see people underrating Costa without giving it an explanation or at least a reasonabe one.

Here's what is going to happen tomorrow:

- Kwiatkowski won't live up to the lol hype surrounding him.
- Costa will finish in the top five.

I'm not saying he's got the same chances, but i'm seeing him as one of the strongest guys on the Cauberg.

 

[theyoungest]

I'm not saying he's got the same chances, but i'm seeing him as one of the strongest guys on the Cauberg.

Purito is one of those guys whom you think will do well on the Cauberg, but never really do. It's a peculiar climb.

I get the Poels comparison, they're probably suited to the same kind of climb, although they're pretty different riders altogether, obviously.

 

[Arredondo]

Purito is one of those guys whom you think will do well on the Cauberg, but never really do. It's a peculiar climb.

I get the Poels comparison, they're probably suited to the same kind of climb, although they're pretty different riders altogether, obviously.

Of course, but you have to keep in mind that from 2010, he's got the role of a team leader. In 2008, he was one of the strongest guys in the race, but had to work for Valverde, and finished 8th. In 2011 he was the strongest after a Gilbert, and in 2010 he was sick and 2013 he crashed. Only in 2012 he really disappointed.