49th Amstel Gold Race, 20 April 2014 (WT) 251km

[Pentacycle]

Purito is one of those guys whom you think will do well on the Cauberg, but never really do. It's a peculiar climb.

I get the Poels comparison, they're probably suited to the same kind of climb, although they're pretty different riders altogether, obviously.

No, it's neither a monster climb nor does it have something special. The AGR in itself is another story. You see, guys who are great on hills in stage races are always expected to do well here, but this Sunday there is an added amount of stress in the peloton. Some of the 'favourites' won't even be visible during the race. Valverde and Rodriguez have often encountered this problem while they lacked the experience; very few riders have come to Limburg and done well on their first attempt.

 

[theyoungest]

No, it's neither a monster climb nor does it have something special. The AGR in itself is another story. You see, guys who are great on hills in stage races are always expected to do well here, but this Sunday there is an added amount of stress in the peloton. Some of the 'favourites' won't even be on the front during the whole race. Valverde and Rodriguez have often encountered this problem while they lacked the experience; very few riders have come to Limburg and done well on their first attempt.

Did I say it was a monster climb? It's not. However, there's guys who always do well there, and guys who don't. With Gilbert, it doesn't matter how terrible he's riding elsewhere, he's always good on the Cauberg. With the Spaniards it's mostly the opposite.

And it's not about the race before, as it was pretty similar in an otherwise pretty bad season where Gilbert became world champion. If you look at it, there's not a single race on the calendar that finishes on a Cauberg-like climb. So yes, it's peculiar.

 

[Pentacycle]

Did I say it was a monster climb? It's not. However, there's guys who always do well there, and guys who don't. With Gilbert, it doesn't matter how terrible he's riding elsewhere, he's always good on the Cauberg. With the Spaniards it's mostly the opposite.

And it's not about the race before, as it was pretty similar in an otherwise pretty bad season where Gilbert became world champion. If you look at it, there's not a single race on the calendar that finishes on a Cauberg-like climb. So yes, it's peculiar.

It does matter to some riders though, in particular the ones who don't like to fight for positions until the end of the race. Purito for example has only ever performed in the AGR when it was raced hard. When a big bunch approached the Cauberg, like in the 2012 editions of AGR and the world champs, he already lost the race before they hit the final climb.

 

[manafana]

this time tomorrow we should be in the business time of the race, kwiatkowski the man to beat for me.

 

[VeloHuman]

It does matter to some riders though, in particular the ones who don't like to fight for positions until the end of the race. Purito for example has only ever performed in the AGR when it was raced hard. When a big bunch approached the Cauberg, like in the 2012 editions of AGR and the world champs, he already lost the race before they hit the final climb.

I don't think Purito will win this race, but I do think it'll be ridden hard. Nobody wants to see Matthews, Swift, or Boasson Hagen hangin' around in the final kilometers.

 

[manafana]

OPQS will have an interest in drilling this too, Lampre have enough strength to up the pace too as do many of the other teams, Rodriguez has some very good help here too.

 

[Netserk]

If you can be second in this race, you can win. Poels is still far from Purito's level, why this comparison?

Chances are slim however; only if the race is as hard as in 2011 Purito has a chance. He can win on the flat, when has he ever lost a classic because he was pulled back by a chasing group? He's either dropped or outsprinted most times.

That was a different race (Yes in the case of Purito the new finish means it's a different race. Not comparable to 2011 at all)

 

[Netserk]

If someone compares Purito with Poels, i can't describe how stupid that person is.

The guy who comes up first on the top of the Cauberg, has a big chance to win. It's only 1.5 k. I see Valverde also more as a favourite (although he peaked to soon), but Purito can climb the Cauberg really fast to.

I didn't I compared their chances to win the race (Contador clen-level amount of chance), not the riders themselves.

 

[Flamin]

If a select favourites group forms after Cauberg, the pace will drop if there are no team mates left, thus a successful late attack isn't completely unlikely.

Then again, if Purito went, Valverde would rather die than let him go

 

[Pentacycle]

That was a different race (Yes in the case of Purito the new finish means it's a different race. Not comparable to 2011 at all)

That's why I hope Katusha will make the race hard from early on, set a high pace uphill or in sections with crosswind. Or attack with guys like Kolobnev, Caruso or Vicioso.

 

[postmanhat]

Maybe sky should go for swift. Whilst I doubt him winning, with current form I can see him taking a top 3, or if it comes down to a sprint I would back him above ebh who can't win sprints now.days.

If EBH can last the distance, then him and Thomas to tow Swift up to victory?

I can but dream, and hope my fanboy bet comes in

 

[Kwibus]

Weather forecast tomorrow is a very very small chance of rain. Mostly sunny, but could be cloudy as well. Wind 3-4bft. Temperature 19-20C.

So looks like perfect race conditions, unless it will actually rain, but i doubt it.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Weather forecast tomorrow is a very very small chance of rain. Mostly sunny, but could be cloudy as well. Wind 3-4bft. Temperature 19-20C.

So looks like perfect race conditions, unless it will actually rain, but i doubt it.

Excellent, lets get some action going.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

If EBH can last the distance, then him and Thomas to tow Swift up to victory?

I can but dream, and hope my fanboy bet comes in

So tempted to have a few quid on Swift but he just hasn't proved he can stick with the best up the likes of the Cauberg. If he wins it which is unlikely it could open up a whole new direction rather than getting his *** whipped in grand tour sprints.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Astana's team:

21.NIBALI Vincenzo
22.BOZIC Borut
23.FUGLSANG Jakob
24.GASPAROTTO Enrico
25.LUTSENKO Aleksey
26.GRIVKO Andriy
27.IGLINSKIY Maxim
28.WESTRA Lieuwe

Looks incredible strong on paper and its about time these boys gets to work this season.

Surely not all of these fine gentlemen will wait until Cauberg?

 

[Kwibus]

Astana's team:

21.NIBALI Vincenzo
22.BOZIC Borut
23.FUGLSANG Jakob
24.GASPAROTTO Enrico
25.LUTSENKO Aleksey
26.GRIVKO Andriy
27.IGLINSKIY Maxim
28.WESTRA Lieuwe

Looks incredible strong on paper and its about time these boys gets to work this season.

Surely not all of these fine gentlemen will wait until Cauberg?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/astana-stage-multi-headed-attack-on-amstel-gold-race

You are right, they won't wait for the Cauberg.

 

[manafana]

Yeah when I looked at the race the strenght of the Astana line up impressed me lots, BMC also have a strong line up as do OPQS all have 2or3 strong options at least.

Nicki Sorensen to keep riding well maybe a top 10

 

[Kwibus]

Excellent, lets get some action going.

Hoping for a race like last year as well, but I'm personally not too happy with perfect racing weather. I prefer some rain or more wind. The harder the better

 

[Pentacycle]

Hoping for a race like last year as well, but I'm personally not too happy with perfect racing weather. I prefer some rain or more wind. The harder the better

2011 had perfect weather, but the peloton was decimated on the Eyserbos after hard pace from Rabo, and a few crashes. I hope for a similar race tomorrow.

 

[Kwibus]

2011 had perfect weather, but the peloton was decimated on the Eyserbos after hard pace from Rabo, and a few crashes. I hope for a similar race tomorrow.

The harder the better.

 

[pigoonse]

Astana's team:

21.NIBALI Vincenzo
22.BOZIC Borut
23.FUGLSANG Jakob
24.GASPAROTTO Enrico
25.LUTSENKO Aleksey
26.GRIVKO Andriy
27.IGLINSKIY Maxim
28.WESTRA Lieuwe

Looks incredible strong on paper and its about time these boys gets to work this season.

Surely not all of these fine gentlemen will wait until Cauberg?

It's about time lhe shark is back

And hoping for some drizzle, too. Enough sunshine and dust already.

 

[VeloHuman]

It's about time lhe shark is back

And hoping for some drizzle, too. Enough sunshine and dust already.

I doubt Nibali makes many big waves at Amstel. I think he's hunting La Fleche Wallonne and Liege. Much more his style.

 

[pigoonse]

I doubt Nibali makes many big waves at Amstel. I think he's hunting La Fleche Wallonne and Liege. Much more his style.

Not expecting anything much from Nibali and I have only watched this race once - last year. Checking out the map and profile just now.

I voted for Kwiatkowski FTW. But that was before Gilbert's big win

Gilbert
Valverde
Kwiatkowski

One of the above to get on the podium is the extent of my bold prediction.

Wondering how Garmin will do,

 

[SafeBet]

I doubt Nibali makes many big waves at Amstel. I think he's hunting La Fleche Wallonne and Liege. Much more his style.

On paper this new version of AGR is more suited to him than Fleche but it's his first race after a period of training so expectations should be kept low.

We might see him working for a teammate.

 

[manafana]

bring on the Amstel Gold;