53rd Amstel Gold Race - 260km

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

I am going to go with Sonny for the win. He has shown he can handle the race and he and hks team seemed strong yesterday. There aren't many that could outsprint him in a group, Matthews, Sagan, maybe Valverde? ( )

Degenkolb and Coquard are in the race, although I expect Deg to be workhorse. Trentin was supposed to ride it but he got injured.

But neither of them are gonna survive if they race it properly. Sonny is going to struggle too. Brabantse Pijl is much shorter and has less hills.

The hills are more difficult in Amstel as well. Sonny only has a chance when the racing is not done very hard.

Yeah, I've always considered Colbrelli to be a hardy sprinter, not a puncheur. The hills are too hard for him unless they aren't racing it for real.

He is a better climber than Kristoff, Degenkolb and Demare but not even close to the likes of GVA or Sagan.

 

[Nirvana]

Degenkolb before the accident was a better climber than him, at the 2015 Vuelta he was the last man of Giant to survive for Dumoulin in some stages, expecially in the third week.

 

[Brullnux]

I don't know. Colbrelli won't get dropped from a reduced pack of 20 riders but the question is if an attacks going to go with 30km left, and if a bahrain rider is in it. Otherwise it could come to a reduced sprint, and then Colbrelli will be favourite for that.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

I don't know. Colbrelli won't get dropped from a reduced pack of 20 riders but the question is if an attacks going to go with 30km left, and if a bahrain rider is in it. Otherwise it could come to a reduced sprint, and then Colbrelli will be favourite for that.

How will he be that? Sagan is much faster than him.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

I wonder which teams are gonna chase the final break?

I mean, I don't think Baharin will be doing the pulling. They have Nibali, Izagirre and Gasparotto. One of those are likely to join the break.

I also doubt that Bora will be chasing. I expect Sagan to be aggressive. If that fails, they have a plan-B in McCarthy for a reduced sprint.

And if all hell breaks loose they still have Konrad and Majka.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

I don't know. Colbrelli won't get dropped from a reduced pack of 20 riders but the question is if an attacks going to go with 30km left, and if a bahrain rider is in it. Otherwise it could come to a reduced sprint, and then Colbrelli will be favourite for that.

Bahrain should be wise enough not to put all eggs in Colbrelli's basket. They will not be able to control this race for Colbrelli, they couldn't control much shorter and easier race yesterday. So I think the best for them is to put one guy in every serious move in the last 50km. They have more than enough guys for that, Nibali, Gaspa, Izagirre's..., even Colbrelli himself. That way they will have a contender in late move, and if it comes to a sprint they will always have Colbrelli.

As for the race itself, I think we will have similar scenario as last year's. Strong group will emerge somewhere between Kruisberg and Cauberg, and will hold on till the end. Too many strong teams and riders wants that scenario: BMC, Lotto Soudal, Quick Step, Movistar, Sky, and if Sagan and one of the Bahrain guys joins the show it's game over for the sprinters.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

I don't know. Colbrelli won't get dropped from a reduced pack of 20 riders but the question is if an attacks going to go with 30km left, and if a bahrain rider is in it. Otherwise it could come to a reduced sprint, and then Colbrelli will be favourite for that.

How will he be that? Sagan is much faster than him.

I forgot about Sagan, but I'm not sure if new 80kg Sagan can cope with Amstel.

Although, in fairness, I could be extremely wrong.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I don't know. Colbrelli won't get dropped from a reduced pack of 20 riders but the question is if an attacks going to go with 30km left, and if a bahrain rider is in it. Otherwise it could come to a reduced sprint, and then Colbrelli will be favourite for that.

How will he be that? Sagan is much faster than him.

I forgot about Sagan, but I'm not sure if new 80kg Sagan can cope with Amstel.

Although, in fairness, I could be extremely wrong.

Yeah, I think you will be. He is also a much better hill rider than Colbrelli.

Majka isn't riding (response to another poster).

 

[alspacka]

Re: Re:

I don't know. Colbrelli won't get dropped from a reduced pack of 20 riders but the question is if an attacks going to go with 30km left, and if a bahrain rider is in it. Otherwise it could come to a reduced sprint, and then Colbrelli will be favourite for that.

How will he be that? Sagan is much faster than him.

I forgot about Sagan, but I'm not sure if new 80kg Sagan can cope with Amstel.

Although, in fairness, I could be extremely wrong.

Yeah, I think you will be. He is also a much better hill rider than Colbrelli.

Majka isn't riding (response to another poster).

Do you know why Majka is not riding? Is he fit to lead LBL?

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

I don't know. Colbrelli won't get dropped from a reduced pack of 20 riders but the question is if an attacks going to go with 30km left, and if a bahrain rider is in it. Otherwise it could come to a reduced sprint, and then Colbrelli will be favourite for that.

How will he be that? Sagan is much faster than him.

I forgot about Sagan, but I'm not sure if new 80kg Sagan can cope with Amstel.

Although, in fairness, I could be extremely wrong.

Yeah, I think you will be. He is also a much better hill rider than Colbrelli.

Majka isn't riding (response to another poster).

Cobrelli is a weird one. He does better in theoretically harder races: for example, he has been very strong at Amstel for the last two years but was dropped in bergen, a race designed for Kristoff, who wouldn't ever contest amstel imo. I think he just really struggles on (any) longer climbs, but is fine on short and steep climbs, which is perhaps why the old route suited him more.

 

[fauniera]

Why is Roglic not riding this? Anyone know? He was awesome at the short, steep hills in the Basque Country, seems logical to have a crack at the Ardennes classics. Especially as his team looks very weak without him for their home race.

 

[GP Blanco]

Why is Roglic not riding this? Anyone know? He was awesome at the short, steep hills in the Basque Country, seems logical to have a crack at the Ardennes classics. Especially as his team looks very weak without him for their home race.

Focussing on Romandie.

 

[Zama_Olyas]

Cunego to bring back the glory days ..

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

I don't know. Colbrelli won't get dropped from a reduced pack of 20 riders but the question is if an attacks going to go with 30km left, and if a bahrain rider is in it. Otherwise it could come to a reduced sprint, and then Colbrelli will be favourite for that.

How will he be that? Sagan is much faster than him.

I forgot about Sagan, but I'm not sure if new 80kg Sagan can cope with Amstel.

Although, in fairness, I could be extremely wrong.

Yeah, I think you will be. He is also a much better hill rider than Colbrelli.

Majka isn't riding (response to another poster).

Cobrelli is a weird one. He does better in theoretically harder races: for example, he has been very strong at Amstel for the last two years but was dropped in bergen, a race designed for Kristoff, who wouldn't ever contest amstel imo. I think he just really struggles on (any) longer climbs, but is fine on short and steep climbs, which is perhaps why the old route suited him more.

Colbrelli is at his best if it is a hard race and the weather is bad, he dislikes the heat, but sometimes he has off days, like Bergen or the 2016 EC RR.
He seems to have recovered well after a rather bad cobbles campaign.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Cunego to bring back the glory days ..

Win the AGR on his first attempt

Win the AGR on his last attempt

Rather see him go out with a stage or KOM in the Giro though.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

Cunego to bring back the glory days ..

Win the AGR on his first attempt

This is the next best thing because he can't race Giro.

Win the AGR on his last attempt

Rather see him go out with a stage or KOM in the Giro though.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Cunego to bring back the glory days ..

Win the AGR on his first attempt

This is the next best thing because he can't race Giro.

Win the AGR on his last attempt

Rather see him go out with a stage or KOM in the Giro though.

Nippo will race the Tour de Suisse, at least that's something.

 

[SafeBet]

Colbrelli has been sick during the cobble classics. I think he's now recovered but still not as strong as he was last year.

Speaking of Italian riders, Trek revealed today that Felline has been hit by toxoplasmosis and won't race until at least the end of May.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Colbrelli has been sick during the cobble classics. I think he's now recovered but still not as strong as he was last year.

Speaking of Italian riders, Trek revealed today that Felline has been hit by toxoplasmosis and won't race until at least the end of May.

Felline was diagnosed with toxoplasmosis last year, but is apparently still not fully recovered. Recent blood tests still showed the parasite. Very unfortunate.

 

[shalgo]

Re: Re:

Felline was diagnosed with toxoplasmosis last year, but is apparently still not fully recovered. Recent blood tests still showed the parasite. Very unfortunate.

Felline spending too much time around the felines?

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

Colbrelli has been sick during the cobble classics. I think he's now recovered but still not as strong as he was last year.

Speaking of Italian riders, Trek revealed today that Felline has been hit by toxoplasmosis and won't race until at least the end of May.

Felline was diagnosed with toxoplasmosis last year, but is apparently still not fully recovered. Recent blood tests still showed the parasite. Very unfortunate.

He might win the Tour de France four times now.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

I think Fuglsang has been quietly preparing himself for this, and can surprise people on Sunday..... through my main favorites are Valverde and Martin.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

I think Fuglsang has been quietly preparing himself for this, and can surprise people on Sunday..... through my main favorites are Valverde and Martin.

Martin’s best result in Amstel is 15th. He has a string of DNFs there. For some reason it’s never worked for him. Maybe the new course will be better (but DNF last year too).

If he gets over the final hill in a break with the right mix of riders (ie, not a better sprinter than him, but someone still willing to work) he might contend, but his focus will definitely be on next week.

 

[Sartorius]

Why is Roglic not riding this? Anyone know? He was awesome at the short, steep hills in the Basque Country, seems logical to have a crack at the Ardennes classics. Especially as his team looks very weak without him for their home race.

He is not fully recovered after his crash at Vasco + he is focusing on one week stage races.

 

[Laplaz]

Bahrain certainly has the team to rip this apart with Nibali, the Izaguirres, Gasparotto and Colbrelli. But it will be difficult for them to choose the right tactic, maybe the best one will be to chase every attack, and maybe if nothing sticks Sonny can win this in a reduced bunch sprint.