53rd Amstel Gold Race - 260km

[Max Rockatansky]

BTW, Zabel was a monster in the Classics that year: 1st Sanremo, 4th Ronde, 3rd Roubaix, 1st AGR.

Oh yes, he was. Also won the World Cup that year. Zabel also rode LBL. His calendar was...

24.3. M-Srm, 26.-30.3. Setmana-Catalana, 3.4. RVV, 7.4. G-W, 10.4. P-R, 16.4. LBL, 19.4. Schelde, 22.4. Amstel, 26.4. RuK, 1.5. Frankfurt...

It was a different course that year with the finish in Maastricht and some belgian climbs. Last Cauberg was at 60k to go, if I remember correctly. Still that was a sprint of 12 or 15 riders with guys like Bettini, Freire, Boogerd and van Petegem.

 

[Nirvana]

I hardly can imagine the better race for Sagan then AGR.
He definitely started season one two weeks later this year. It almost looked he sacrificed MSR in order to win PR.
Every week he is stronger and stronger. Bora put the AGR to his race calendar for some reason.

I do not think he will fade the same way as in 2013 where he was second best in RVV, 2 levels better than GVA, Gilbert in Brabantse Pijl. But, of course, it is possible. We will see on Sunday.

I don't think he's stronger and stronger every week, in Roubaix he finally won because he doesn't have problems and he decided to attack instead of wait and let someone else go.
And we can't compare taday's Sagan with the 2013 one's when he was a different rider, a lot stronger in climbing without the extra weight he has now.

NO, he won PR because he was the strongest. He kept almost 1 min to a group well-organized chasers for more than 30 km. So yes. He was definitely the strongest, not the smartest this race.

I didn't say that he wasn't the strongest in the race, i said that i don't think he's stronger and stronger every week. I think that in flemish races seemed more subpar because he suffered the climbs. The form was already there, he showed that at the Tirreno where he almost outsprinted Kittel after chasing in the last kilometers.

Anyway there is no doubt that this year in Roubaix he was helped by the fact he hasn't bad luck like in previous years, you can be strongest but if you crash or have mechanicals you won't win in Roubaix, and also his change from wainting for the sprint mode to attacking mode was fundamental.

 

[Durden93]

Re:

It's pretty cool how AG has changed into a race with potential winners ranging from climber to sprinter. I actually liked the Gilberg/Cauberg finale but I have to admit they made the right decision changing the parcours.

I have no idea who's going to win.

Your comment summarizes my thoughts on AGR fairly well. I also love that this new route opens up a door for climbers/rouler type riders.

 

[Jano]

I hardly can imagine the better race for Sagan then AGR.
He definitely started season one two weeks later this year. It almost looked he sacrificed MSR in order to win PR.
Every week he is stronger and stronger. Bora put the AGR to his race calendar for some reason.

I do not think he will fade the same way as in 2013 where he was second best in RVV, 2 levels better than GVA, Gilbert in Brabantse Pijl. But, of course, it is possible. We will see on Sunday.

I don't think he's stronger and stronger every week, in Roubaix he finally won because he doesn't have problems and he decided to attack instead of wait and let someone else go.
And we can't compare taday's Sagan with the 2013 one's when he was a different rider, a lot stronger in climbing without the extra weight he has now.

NO, he won PR because he was the strongest. He kept almost 1 min to a group well-organized chasers for more than 30 km. So yes. He was definitely the strongest, not the smartest this race.

The strongest and the smartest are not mutually exclusive.
He was the strongest and the smartest as well.
He outsmarted everybody and he had endurance to make it happen.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Amstel Gold Race was always like that with the finish in Maastricht. Then they changed to the finish on the Cauberg, and for the first few years it wasn't actually bad. They used to attack on the Eyserbosweg from 30km out and they would only have a small group left of 1/2/3/4/5 (max 10). But when Boogerd quit and the new generation took over they waited for the Cauberg all the time.

So they had to do something. Finish on the old course in Maastricht would be fine, but what they did last year was also a suitable change.

 

[42x16ss]

I hardly can imagine the better race for Sagan then AGR.
He definitely started season one two weeks later this year. It almost looked he sacrificed MSR in order to win PR.
Every week he is stronger and stronger. Bora put the AGR to his race calendar for some reason.

I do not think he will fade the same way as in 2013 where he was second best in RVV, 2 levels better than GVA, Gilbert in Brabantse Pijl. But, of course, it is possible. We will see on Sunday.

I don't think he's stronger and stronger every week, in Roubaix he finally won because he doesn't have problems and he decided to attack instead of wait and let someone else go.
And we can't compare taday's Sagan with the 2013 one's when he was a different rider, a lot stronger in climbing without the extra weight he has now.

NO, he won PR because he was the strongest. He kept almost 1 min to a group well-organized chasers for more than 30 km. So yes. He was definitely the strongest, not the smartest this race.

I didn't say that he wasn't the strongest in the race, i said that i don't think he's stronger and stronger every week. I think that in flemish races seemed more subpar because he suffered the climbs. The form was already there, he showed that at the Tirreno where he almost outsprinted Kittel after chasing in the last kilometers.

Anyway there is no doubt that this year in Roubaix he was helped by the fact he hasn't bad luck like in previous years, you can be strongest but if you crash or have mechanicals you won't win in Roubaix, and also his change from wainting for the sprint mode to attacking mode was fundamental.

I suspect that Bora want the luxury of two options at Amstel. How many other teams have two genuine chances for this race? Will McCarthy look to set up Sagan or vice-versa? Will they both ride their own race?

The two seem to work well together and it looks like Bora hope this pays off.

 

[Koronin]

I hardly can imagine the better race for Sagan then AGR.
He definitely started season one two weeks later this year. It almost looked he sacrificed MSR in order to win PR.
Every week he is stronger and stronger. Bora put the AGR to his race calendar for some reason.

I do not think he will fade the same way as in 2013 where he was second best in RVV, 2 levels better than GVA, Gilbert in Brabantse Pijl. But, of course, it is possible. We will see on Sunday.

I don't think he's stronger and stronger every week, in Roubaix he finally won because he doesn't have problems and he decided to attack instead of wait and let someone else go.
And we can't compare taday's Sagan with the 2013 one's when he was a different rider, a lot stronger in climbing without the extra weight he has now.

NO, he won PR because he was the strongest. He kept almost 1 min to a group well-organized chasers for more than 30 km. So yes. He was definitely the strongest, not the smartest this race.

I didn't say that he wasn't the strongest in the race, i said that i don't think he's stronger and stronger every week. I think that in flemish races seemed more subpar because he suffered the climbs. The form was already there, he showed that at the Tirreno where he almost outsprinted Kittel after chasing in the last kilometers.

Anyway there is no doubt that this year in Roubaix he was helped by the fact he hasn't bad luck like in previous years, you can be strongest but if you crash or have mechanicals you won't win in Roubaix, and also his change from wainting for the sprint mode to attacking mode was fundamental.

I suspect that Bora want the luxury of two options at Amstel. How many other teams have two genuine chances for this race? Will McCarthy look to set up Sagan or vice-versa? Will they both ride their own race?

The two seem to work well together and I suspect Bora hope this pays off.

I would suspect Quickstep has 2 maybe 3 options for this race depending on how the race plays out.

 

[Blanco]

I see that some of the posters consider McCarthy as a serious contender for this race. I don't. I can't see how he can win this race, he's just not strong enough to hold on with the strongest guys, nor fast enough to out sprint reduced bunch.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

I see that some of the posters consider McCarthy as a serious contender for this race. I don't. I can't see how he can win this race, he's just not strong enough to hold on with the strongest guys, nor fast enough to out sprint reduced bunch.

Serious contender? Not yet.

An outside chance that can’t be given too much room by his opponents? Yes.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

maybe when it's a boring race he stands a chance. Like the time Coquard got 4th.

I've said this a thousand times but if they actually utilize the hills in the last 80km right then you could shatter the field completely and no sprinter will come close, bar Matthews/Sagan type maybe. (people that can go with the strongest)

 

[SKSemtex]

Bora Team is so strong here. Majka, Konrad, Sagan, McCarthy (whats wrong with Kennaugh ?)
Sagan with no pressure will be deadly for any team. Either as superdomestic or finisher.
Unfortunately neither Konrad or Majka can sprint, so it is difficult to imagine them winning. I am quite surprised with McCarthy sprints after hard race . Too good for such a light rider.

I am really looking forward to this race.

 

[tobydawq]

Bora Team is so strong here. Majka, Konrad, Sagan, McCarthy (whats wrong with Kennaugh ?)
Sagan with no pressure will be deadly for any team. Either as superdomestic or finisher.
Unfortunately neither Konrad or Majka can sprint, so it is difficult to imagine them winning. I am quite surprised with McCarthy sprints after hard race . Too good for such a light rider.

I am really looking forward to this race.

Not true. Which the following links demonstrate.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/itzulia-basque-country/2018/stage-2
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/paris-nice/2018/stage-8
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-ciclista-a-la-region-de-murcia/2017/result

Anyways, no matter what they say beforehand, Sagan will end up as the captain. He hasn't extended his season just to help.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm gonna say that whether this will be a sprint or not depends on if Bahrein and Bora make it in the aggressive move over the key hills and if the dropped groups clot together. Those teams have the firepower to force a sprint in that case, cause I imagine a break that drops Sagan is gonna be pretty freaking small.

 

[SKSemtex]

Bora Team is so strong here. Majka, Konrad, Sagan, McCarthy (whats wrong with Kennaugh ?)
Sagan with no pressure will be deadly for any team. Either as superdomestic or finisher.
Unfortunately neither Konrad or Majka can sprint, so it is difficult to imagine them winning. I am quite surprised with McCarthy sprints after hard race . Too good for such a light rider.

I am really looking forward to this race.

Not true. Which the following links demonstrate.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/itzulia-basque-country/2018/stage-2
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/paris-nice/2018/stage-8
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-ciclista-a-la-region-de-murcia/2017/result

Anyways, no matter what they say beforehand, Sagan will end up as the captain. He hasn't extended his season just to help.

I have the sprint against Gilbert , Kwiatko, Valverde on my mind.
But you are right . He is not so bad at all.

 

[virenque216]

A lot will depend on the spell of race between Kruisberg and Keutenberg if proper climbers live Valverde,Kwiatkowski or Nibali manage to form a cohesive break which could stay away from all rounders and better sprinters like Sagan or Matthews and also the recovery from Paris Roubaix will be important as the riders who raced Roubaix might fade away at the end if race is hard

 

[yaco]

I'd be very surprised if McCarthy makes the final selection - Hope I'm proven wrong.

 

[Velolover2]

Until proven otherwise, Jay McCarthy is just a great puncheur. We don't know if he can survive 50 km of hard racing in a small group. There is a difference between being a hill rider and a puncheur.

For me a hill rider is someone with a great engine in hilly terrain and is able to attack far out (like Benoot or Wellens). A puncheur is just someone who is able to sprint uphill or survive harder stages (think Gerro). Of course, you can be both like Gilbert and Kwiatkowski.

 

[PeterB]

...whats wrong with Kennaugh ?...

Health reasons of undisclosed nature. Should return to racing next month. Enforced break for Kennaugh

 

[Bardamu]

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/amstel-gold-race/2018/startlist/riders-ranked

Amazing to see how diverse this startlist is. The only riders missing are pure sprinters and some GC riders.

 

[Velolover2]

I wonder which teams are gonna chase the final break?

I mean, I don't think Baharin will be doing the pulling. They have Nibali, Izagirre and Gasparotto. One of those are likely to join the break.

I also doubt that Bora will be chasing. I expect Sagan to be aggressive. If that fails, they have a plan-B in McCarthy for a reduced sprint.

 

[Jagartrott]

This race has evolved nicely the past years - I'm hoping for some exciting racing and a worthy winner. Lotto-Soudal seem to be on good form, so I hope they'll make the race hard to shed the sprinter-types.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I am going to go with Sonny for the win. He has shown he can handle the race and he and hks team seemed strong yesterday. There aren't many that could outsprint him in a group, Matthews, Sagan, maybe Valverde? ( )

 

[Nirvana]

Re:

I am going to go with Sonny for the win. He has shown he can handle the race and he and hks team seemed strong yesterday. There aren't many that could outsprint him in a group, Matthews, Sagan, maybe Valverde? ( )

Riders like Impey, Alaphilippe, Albasini, van Avermaet, Kwiatkowski can all win a reduced sprint.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

I am going to go with Sonny for the win. He has shown he can handle the race and he and hks team seemed strong yesterday. There aren't many that could outsprint him in a group, Matthews, Sagan, maybe Valverde? ( )

Degenkolb and Coquard are in the race, although I expect Deg to be workhorse. Trentin was supposed to ride it but he got injured.

But neither of them are gonna survive if they race it properly. Sonny is going to struggle too. Brabantse Pijl is much shorter and has less hills.

 

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

I am going to go with Sonny for the win. He has shown he can handle the race and he and hks team seemed strong yesterday. There aren't many that could outsprint him in a group, Matthews, Sagan, maybe Valverde? ( )

Degenkolb and Coquard are in the race, although I expect Deg to be workhorse. Trentin was supposed to ride it but he got injured.

But neither of them are gonna survive if they race it properly. Sonny is going to struggle too. Brabantse Pijl is much shorter and has less hills.

The hills are more difficult in Amstel as well. Sonny only has a chance when the racing is not done very hard.