69th Paris-Nice 2011~March 6 to 13 (WT) 1.307k

[Bumeington]

As DAOTEC pointed out if you take a close look at the winners of the last decade, it is clear that Vino will win this race.

 

[jens_attacks]

As DAOTEC pointed out if you take a close look at the winners of the last decade, it is clear that Vino will win this race.

i wouldn't mind if vino will focus more on ardennes classics and let paris-nice away.he already won it twice overall and 5 stages.but we all know that it won't happen.this race is so special to him and he'll go for the win.the route is perfect.can't wait to see ricco on french soil too.

 

[Jukebox]

A Ricco/Vino battle would be beautiful. I agree that a decent climber with a good chrono should win. A Mick Rogers type of rider could do very well.

 

[Ryaguas]

Vino loves this classic and Riccó WANTS this classic so... bring it on mates! that battle will be epic!

Riccó is leaving Tirreno - Adriatico, that is a quite special race to him, for Paris - Nice so He is going for the overall!

This race is tailor made for Vino... hope he can brake the clocks in the CRI...

 

[WillyWoet]

Ricco

The last climb to Vernoux-en-Vivarais looks quite punchy, so think Ricco will be looking to do something there if he's on form.

 

[Lupetto]

I think that Tony Martin will suprise here. There have been good results in this terrain before, he is still developing and in the tt he can really take some time from his opponents.

On Vino, I agree. Looks like made for him.

 

[taiwan]

So

do people think the TT is flat enough to favour the true specialists (e.g. Martin)?

I tended to think no, but I could be wrong.

Sorry, I phrased that as a question. I meant "I don't think the TT is flat enough to favour the true specialists eg Martin.".

 

[The Hitch]

do people think the TT is flat enough to favour the true specialists (e.g. Martin)?

I tended to think no, but I could be wrong.

Sorry, I phrased that as a question. I meant "I don't think the TT is flat enough to favour the true specialists eg Martin.".

Geelong world championship parcors

1 Cancellara
2 David Millar
3 Tony Martin

 

[taiwan]

Take your point. Would only say that, if anything the P-N TT has more horizontal and vertical climbing distance (if lower grades), and the Worlds TT is the Worlds TT: the greatest prize available for a pure time triallist.

 

[The Hitch]

Take your point. Would only say that, if anything the P-N TT has more horizontal and vertical climbing distance (if lower grades), and the Worlds TT is the Worlds TT: the greatest prize available for a pure time triallist.

Yeah your right. The pictures are decieving. the geelong climb wasnt all that. It looks fierce because the picture is a lot longer. Also this one seems to have less flat km. The other one had the climb but then lots of pure flat.

From the climbers Id pick Contador. Then valverde. Then Menchov.

Oh hang on a sec.

All right then, Roman, Samu Janez. Horner won a similar one in Pais Vasco.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Well, if Ricco attacks on stage 5 he will drop LLS by at least 30s. Would make it close for the TT.

considering the 27kn timetrial i doubt 30 secs would even be enough.
certainly a good race for the short stage race specialists (those, who can climb decently, but have a strong TT)... LLS, Kreuziger, Brajkovic should do well on this course to. Samu could possibly pull this off tho.

@ hitch
a similar profile doesn't necessarily make a TT similar. One could have constant bends and difficult roads to navigate, and the other could have a handful of straight roads etc.. And distance is always a factor, but yes, one would assume the TT guys will still dominate the stage. I agree.

Re; ricco, i dunno if he would want to be in peak form with the giro in mind.

 

[blaxland]

Has anyone mentioned Ritchie Porte SBS....He is a very good TimeTrialist (4th @ worlds) and we know he can climb ok(top 10 Giro)I think along with LLS and Vino,Porte has a good chance..

 

[Matthijs]

Martin can climb a bit too. Ventoux 2009 and if I'm right a 2nd placing in TdSuisse 2009? So I thought he probably isn't that bad on a little more hilly TT

 

[slafkins]

Preview Paris-Nice

I don't believe they They missed Astana tym as contenders,namely Vino a Kreuz,They will be in top five.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Has anyone mentioned Ritchie Porte SBS....He is a very good TimeTrialist (4th @ worlds) and we know he can climb ok(top 10 Giro)I think along with LLS and Vino,Porte has a good chance..

He can climb, a bit, Porte. But the Giro is a bad example, he got in the top 10 by the massive 42 man breakaway escape. He was nowhere near the best 10 climbers in the race

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

He can climb, a bit, Porte. But the Giro is a bad example, he got in the top 10 by the massive 42 man breakaway escape. He was nowhere near the best 10 climbers in the race

this is true.
take the time trials into consideration also, he bettered a lot of climbers there. Had it not been for those 2 areas, he would not be in the top 10 no way, nor in the white (he would have lost the white without stage 12 regardless of the TT and s7 btw).
He also had a decent ride at montalcino and limited his losses there, which doesn't surprise me as I rate him decent in the classics.

That being said, he could do a good ride at P-N, the course isn't too difficult. But i'd suggest guys like LLS and Kreuziger will do better.

 

[The Hitch]

He can climb, a bit, Porte. But the Giro is a bad example, he got in the top 10 by the massive 42 man breakaway escape. He was nowhere near the best 10 climbers in the race

Also Porte placed 5th in the opening time trial at the Giro, but couldnt make the top 10 in the last tt. Needing only to match Vino to secure 6th postion, he lost 20 seconds to Alexande Vinokourov in that final time trial.

This might suggest he does worse in tts after a few stages. Seeing as his success has been 4th in worlds - 1 day, 1st in Romandie - stage 3 tt and 5th in Giro - first day of race.

Either way, id say hed be lucky to break top 10. Cant see someone who lost 5 minutes on Gavia while in pink and almost 6 on Zoncolan, staying with the top guys in Paris Nice.

Even his cheerleaders here say if he becomes great, its likely no to be this year yet.

 

[blaxland]

He can climb, a bit, Porte. But the Giro is a bad example, he got in the top 10 by the massive 42 man breakaway escape. He was nowhere near the best 10 climbers in the race

Agree Timmy regaurding the Giro....but Paris-Nice climbs are not to brutal so he should be ok with the likes of Luis Leon Sanchez and Martin.Guys like Ricco/Gesink are definantly superior climbers.So i guess a lot depends what happens on stage 5,and how much time is gained by the pure climbers?

 

[Ferminal]

Also Porte placed 5th in the opening time trial at the Giro, but couldnt make the top 10 in the last tt. Needing only to match Vino to secure 6th postion, he lost 20 seconds to Alexande Vinokourov in that final time trial.

This might suggest he does worse in tts after a few stages. Seeing as his success has been 4th in worlds - 1 day, 1st in Romandie - stage 3 tt and 5th in Giro - first day of race.

Either way, id say hed be lucky to break top 10. Cant see someone who lost 5 minutes on Gavia while in pink and almost 6 on Zoncolan, staying with the top guys in Paris Nice.

Even his cheerleaders here say if he becomes great, its likely no to be this year yet.

Monte Grappa?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Vino ftw. Porte probably will top 10 but I don't think much further than that.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

anyone think Brajkovic is a dark horse for the win?

p.s. - nice intro DaoTec

 

[Christian]

do people think the TT is flat enough to favour the true specialists (e.g. Martin)?

I tended to think no, but I could be wrong.

Sorry, I phrased that as a question. I meant "I don't think the TT is flat enough to favour the true specialists eg Martin.".

It looks like I imagined - a lot of downhill, some uphill.

I think the route will be something like Rognes - down to Aix-en-Provence - back up to Puyricard - back down to Aix.

There could be quite a few steep climbs in this though. Plus it's really nice, broad roads. When they release the complete route and the weather is nice I might try it and report

Brajkovic would be a good bet I think

 

[The Hitch]

anyone think Brajkovic is a dark horse for the win?

p.s. - nice intro DaoTec

I mentioned him but even then felt he was out of place next to the other names.

TT too short. Will get dropped on harder stages. Lose to bonus seconds as well.

Monte Grappa?

Rats

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

anyone think Brajkovic is a dark horse for the win?

p.s. - nice intro DaoTec

i mentioned him in my first post, i certainly think he is a good chance here. Esp. on the radioshack program

 

[stefrees]

I'm ready to put my tin hat on here, but if wiggins is going to stare target week long stage races earlier in the year this could be perfect for him, depending on what form he comes out of the track world cup in