Stage 5 finish looks good for Rodriguez (if he rides) or Ricco or Samu or Evans. A selection on the cat.1 followed by a sprint from a small group. Or Sagan.
I would repeat that I think Peter Sagan could be a major player in the race again. It was at this race that he really arrived last year, and he's not a bad climber-that's what's so remarkable about him-possibly good enough for that parcours. Bonifications from sprints were important in last year's race, and he may be the best equipped to gain the most of those. But the TT may put him out of contention.
Nicolas Roche is another who should show up. I remember him running himself ragged in this race last year, but unable to get a stage. He's developing steadily, so he should be able to do more this time.
Jakob Fuglsang and Christophe Le Mevel are others appearing on a startlist who have possibilities.
[edit] Evans at T-A, sorry.