Vuelta a España 76th La Vuelta ciclista a España 2021 (August 14 - September 5)

[CyclistAbi]

In my opinion Carapaz has two problems on this race. One is his characteristics. That is the problem regarding the TT. To try to mitigate this Carapaz would need to be plan A from the start. Hence the second problem for Carapaz is Bernal. Ineos will most likely favour Bernal and by the time, if and when that happens, Bernal cracks, by then Carapaz will likely be out of the GC picture already. I just don't see Ineos favouring Carapaz over Bernal from the get go on this race. Hence i don't feel we are dismissing Carapaz all that much. It's just that this likely isn't his race in the first place.

 

[Breezy1985]

The undisputed master of sneaky attacks and undercover racing.

Yep.

And in other happy news Movistar are going with a 3 leader tactics too. This is gonna be a fun Vuelta

 

[Red Rick]

Nevermind Roglic vs Carapaz. I don't understand Bernal > Carapaz more

 

[CyclistAbi]

This is the race where the stakes are rather high for Bernal. If Bernal won't be able to cope then in my opinion Ineos will start making some changes in the next season. For now i would say Ineos still considers Bernal as their future bet. Hence for now Bernal > Carapaz at Ineos.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Meanwhile I'm interested to see what Pidcock does. I'm not him to be a GC leader or something but I don't think we've seen any climbing at all from him this year?

TT as well.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Roglič vs. Bernal vs. Landa is what i expect to see as the battle for the overall. The rest would be a surprise.

P.S. And i guess we all like surprises.

 

[Froome]

The favourite is roglic, he is better than everyone except pogi.
Bernal is gonna be is main rival, and then maybe bahrain with padun and landa.
Carapaz is gonna be a domestique of bernal.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Roglič vs. Bernal vs. Landa is what i expect to see as the battle for the overall. The rest would be a surprise.

P.S. And i guess we all like surprises.

I'm not convinced Landa is going to be that strong in the first week, certainly not at his pre giro level yet. Hopefully he does not lose too much time early on.

 

[steffr222]

Meanwhile I'm interested to see what Pidcock does. I'm not him to be a GC leader or something but I don't think we've seen any climbing at all from him this year?

I‘m actually pretty sure Pidcock will have had a decent GC by the end with at least one stage win…

 

[Earns1985]

This is the race where the stakes are rather high for Bernal. If Bernal won't be able to cope then in my opinion Ineos will start making some changes in the next season. For now i would say Ineos still considers Bernal as their future bet. Hence for now Bernal > Carapaz at Ineos.

Well, this season they sended Bernal to the giro and Carapaz to the tour.
So for this season they trusted more Carapaz then in Bernal, which had been a consequence of Bernals back pain problems and his inconsistent season 2020.

Bernal won the giro and Carapaz finished 3rd at the tour.
Independend on his performance at la vuelta I would prognosticate that Bernal will ride the tour 2022, instead of the giro 2022. Question is, if Carapaz will also ride the tour and not the giro.
For the vuelta I think they will give Bernal a higher priority, because Giro -> Vuelta is just the better way to preper for the vuelta then Tour, Olympics- Vuelta.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Well, this season they sended Bernal to the giro and Carapaz to the tour.
So for this season they trusted more Carapaz then in Bernal, which had been a consequence of Bernals back pain problems and his inconsistent season 2020.

Bernal won the giro and Carapaz finished 3rd at the tour.
Independend on his performance at la vuelta I would prognosticate that Bernal will ride the tour 2022, instead of the giro 2022. Question is, if Carapaz will also ride the tour and not the giro.
For the vuelta I think they will give Bernal a higher priority, because Giro -> Vuelta is just the better way to preper for the vuelta then Tour, Olympics- Vuelta.

I think the Bernal/Carapaz combo will be their best shot at winning the Tour in 2022, unless Martínez continues to improve.

The Vuelta leadership will probably not be fully decided before the race, because it's not really certain, who will be the strongest among them. If Bernal or Carapaz are in trouble on Picón Blanco, I doubt they will sacrifice Yates if he's feeling good.

 

[Pinot's goat]

I think the Bernal/Carapaz combo will be their best shot at winning the Tour in 2022, unless Martínez continues to improve.

Martinez has the worst bike handling skills in the Ineos roster with Sivakov, he must improve that considerably before getting a lead role at the Tour.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Martinez has the worst bike handling skills in the Ineos roster with Sivakov, he must improve that considerably before getting a lead role at the Tour.

Sure, but he showed in the Giro that he actually can do a good GC, and he's a better TT'er than the others. But if he crashes out, it obviously won't matter.

 

[Netserk]

@ice&fire

Full road book: https://storage-aso.lequipe.fr/ASO/cycling_vue/la-vuelta-21-libro-de-ruta-interactivo.pdf

 

[Red Rick]

@ice&fire

Full road book: https://storage-aso.lequipe.fr/ASO/cycling_vue/la-vuelta-21-libro-de-ruta-interactivo.pdf

Stage 4 a Roglstomp finish too

 

[Blanco]

I'm not convinced Landa is going to be that strong in the first week, certainly not at his pre giro level yet. Hopefully he does not lose too much time early on.

He just won a stage race with pretty decent GC field couple of days ago, so I assume his form is alright. I doubt he will lose time, barring crashes...

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Roglic is the favourite, but both Ineos and Bahrain have frighteningly strong teams.

Landa/caruso/padun/poels/mader vs Bernal/carapaz/yates/sivakov.

Movistar, Vlasov and Cathy will fight for 4th.

Bizkarra will get a top 10 overall.

What a shame Masnada is not here.

 

[Blanco]

The favourite is roglic, he is better than everyone except pogi.
Bernal is gonna be is main rival, and then maybe bahrain with padun and landa.
Carapaz is gonna be a domestique of bernal.

Carapaz is going to be a domestique only if it is 100% certain that Bernal is stronger, for which I think we will have to wait at least till Velefique, and maybe even longer...

 

[Red Rick]

Carapaz is going to be a domestique only if it is 100% certain that Bernal is stronger, for which I think we will have to wait at least till Velefique, and maybe even longer...

Tbh a bad day on Picon Blanco and you can already lose a minute or two. I expect it to take a few riders out of the equation already

 

[Escarabajo]

Well, this season they sended Bernal to the giro and Carapaz to the tour.
So for this season they trusted more Carapaz then in Bernal, which had been a consequence of Bernals back pain problems and his inconsistent season 2020.

Bernal won the giro and Carapaz finished 3rd at the tour.
Independend on his performance at la vuelta I would prognosticate that Bernal will ride the tour 2022, instead of the giro 2022. Question is, if Carapaz will also ride the tour and not the giro.
For the vuelta I think they will give Bernal a higher priority, because Giro -> Vuelta is just the better way to preper for the vuelta then Tour, Olympics- Vuelta.

That is a huge conclusion based on what you just said. We have no idea about trust here. Not even close. There could be many other reasons for doing what they did.

 

[Soranos]

Tbh a bad day on Picon Blanco and you can already lose a minute or two. I expect it to take a few riders out of the equation already

Yes, a few riders building towards week might have a rough awakening. If Yates ( who did not look great in Burgos) and Bernal are still somewhat affected by the crash than the Carapaz might be the one to profit.

 

[Escarabajo]

I could argue that Bernal only won the Giro with 1'30 ahead of Caruso.

Why people think last years Vuelta is a slight on Roglic instead of the guys that couldn't beat him I'll never understand.

Because without Movistar he would have lost IMHO!
And there is Bernal which people are trying to downgrade because of Caruso, but never mind Roglic was perfect last year. Please!

 

[Blanco]

Tbh a bad day on Picon Blanco and you can already lose a minute or two. I expect it to take a few riders out of the equation already

He can lose minute or two, I agree, but it's going to take way more than that for him to start slaving for Bernal. They have enough firepower without him, he'll start working only if it is clear that he's out of the GC. Until then, even with a time loss of couple of minutes, he'll be a option B, or C, cause I don't think anyone will let him go up the road, even with a 2-3 min deficit.

 

[Red Rick]

He can lose minute or two, I agree, but it's going to take way more than that for him to start slaving for Bernal. They have enough firepower without him, he'll start working only if it is clear that he's out of the GC. Until then, even with a time loss of couple of minutes, he'll be a option B, or C, cause I don't think anyone will let him go up the road, even with a 2-3 min deficit.

Vueltas generally aren't won by big margins, so 2 minutes is quite a lot.

However it might be that "working for Bernal" ends up being the one to make more risky attacks with him benefitting in the end.

 

[Carols]

About the favorites:
*If Roglic wants to be the new Rominger he has to win the Vuelta for a third consecutive time.
*If Bernal wants to be the new Contador he has to win the Giro-Vuelta double.

Bernal is Nowhere near the class of Contador and never will be! IMNSHO of course.