Vuelta a España 76th La Vuelta ciclista a España 2021 (August 14 - September 5)

[tobydawq]

You must mean Richard Antonio Carapaz Montenegro, Olympic champion, the designated Ineos leader, climber of hills, breaker of hearts, first of his name.

Fancy way of writing "no, not yet".

 

[Breezy1985]

Does anyone know more about what Ineos plans to do here, except throw in 2/3 of their best riders and let them fight out who's in which position in the train?
I thought they said Yates is the leader, but does that still stand? Did he crash in Burgos? Did the others hurt themselves? What about Pidcock's role, experience, free radicale, part of the train, train-training or possibility to go for GC...?

I hope for Bernal that this is not the plan because Carapaz has serious voodoo when it comes to multi leader tactics

 

[CyclistAbi]

Obviously i voted and will cheer for Primož Roglič to achieve a hat-trick.

As for some predictions. There is a lot of quality participating this year and most of the favourites are fresh. This one is for sure not given and it will need to be earned. At minimum Ineos and Bahrain will go full ballistic and only the best version of Roglič and JV will be able to counter the attacks. We'll see but likely the best GT this year is ahead.

 

[Earns1985]

Ineos squad:

Bernal, Carapaz, Yates, Pidcock,Sivakov, van Baarle, Puccio, Narvaez

So no Martinez.. perhaps the Burgos crash had something to do with it..

 

[Soranos]

Ineos squad:

Bernal, Carapaz, Yates, Pidcock,Sivakov, van Baarle, Puccio, Narvaez

So no Martinez.. perhaps the Burgos crash had something to do with it..

Almost certainly. He did not start for stage 4 and I guess we now know that it was more than precaution.

I think this is a huge blow as Martinez has proven that he has no qualms about doing the hard work despite being a world class climber himself.

Still a very strong team obviously.

 

[Netserk]

Bahrain: Yukiya Arashiro, Damiano Caruso, Jan Tratnik, Jack Haig, Mikel Landa, Gino Mäder, Mark Padun, Wout Poels.
That is ridiculously strong as well.

Strongest Vuelta team since Astana 2015.

 

[SafeBet]

Strongest Vuelta team since Astana 2015.

Interesting take.
I think if all of them are on their good day at the same time this could make sense, but it's unlikely to happen on a regular basis.
I'd take Ineos over them, even without Martinez.

 

[Netserk]

Yes, it's somewhat wishful thinking, but I think Bahrain is more likely to reach Astana 2015-level strength than Ineos.

 

[Lequack]

Concerning the route, on second view it's still alright but not great. It's funny how the vuelta has kept this reputation of being super hard and climbing heavy from when it actually was for a couple of years, despite the routes having regressed to a completely normal number of flat stages.

Ever since ASO took over it has become more sprinter friendly like the Tour.
ASO = All Sprinters Aboard

 

[Red Rick]

Looking forward to it. I can kinda see why Roglic is the favorite but I'm surprised by the margin of the poll. I barely followed cycling since the Tour but is there a reason people don't have trust in Bernal? He has his flaws but so does Roglic and Roglic's preparation was far from perfect (even though he was superb in Tokyo)

Concerning the route, on second view it's still alright but not great. It's funny how the vuelta has kept this reputation of being super hard and climbing heavy from when it actually was for a couple of years, despite the routes having regressed to a completely normal number of flat stages. Read the vuelta route thread on Reddit if you want a good laugh at people circlejerking about the "insane difficulty" of an incredibly ordinary GT route.
That being said, I like how many medium mountain stages this edition has. Just wish they had come at the expense of flat stages.

I tried to teach /r/peloton the ways of route criticism but they won't have it.

Anyway, I just struggle to see where Bernal is actually better than Roglic, apart from his team on a route where it's hard to leverage a strong team.

I also think Bernals rep wasn't helped by his 3rd Giro week and the Giro opposition.

 

[Red Rick]

Yes, it's somewhat wishful thinking, but I think Bahrain is more likely to reach Astana 2015-level strength than Ineos.

Before or after Nibali was booted from La Vuelta.

But I honestly don't think it's that unlikely. Especially in depth.

 

[Escarabajo]

Ineos to do a 1, 2 and 3 and come back to the success path of grand tours.

 

[Breezy1985]

Ever since ASO took over it has become more sprinter friendly like the Tour.
ASO = All Sprinters Aboard

Didn't Sean Kelly win this once. It was very flat at times in the past especially when Indurain was about

 

[Soranos]

In defense of Bernal, I think those week 3 Giro struggles are a bit overstated. He had one really bad day that was in part caused by him not riding smart on going into the red too early.
After that he did exactly what he said: ride under control and use the time for his advantage. During the last two MTF he was clearly riding cautious, steadily paying attention to his power numbers and making sure not to go too much into the red. He still was the only one able to hold Martinez wheel on stage 20. Still those days do not erase 2 weeks of dominance.

What I suspect though is that he was hiding some minor back problems in week 3 as he was barely going out of the saddle and looking super stiff in some videos taken after the stages. (That is definitely a red flag for la vuelta as well). Not to mention that he did not race for more than a month going into the Giro, so his preparation was not ideal.

All that being said I put my money on Roglic.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Too bad for Martínez. To settle the debate if it should be called Kuss or Martínez award.

P.S. Will stick with Kuss for now.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Didn't Sean Kelly win this once. It was very flat at times in the past especially when Indurain was about

Indurain never won the Vuelta. Its flattest time was in the 60s when they were deliberately tailoring it to the overseas stars they were trying to bring in, and the skiing industry hadn't taken off meaning places like Escudo then a run-in to Reinosa, Urkiola then a run-in to Vitória-Gasteiz or Pajáres then a run-in to León were the most likely mountain stages, and Mirador del Fito then a descent to Cangas de Onis was one of the toughest stages around. From the early 70s, El Correo-El Pueblo Vasco started to try to add in as many mountains as they could, but even then MTF options were limited, so you had Formigal, Arrate, Naranco and Peña Cabarga as the kind of summits we saw, it was only really in the 80s when Unipublic took over and the finishes in the Basque region came to an end that they started looking elsewhere for climbs, as the organisers being based out of the Basque region and using the Basque climbs as the key-note climactic stages meant there wasn't too much investigating elsewhere, plus the relative lack of development in the infrastructure of Franco's Spain meant that a lot of the early part of the race was more about them being paid to run along the coast and show off the infrastructure and the tourist towns than them trying to make a decisive bike race. The 80s saw places like Lagos de Covadonga and Sierra Nevada which have become staples added to the race's repertoire and Pajáres turned into a regular MTF rather than a mid-stage climb as well as dialling up the difficulty of the Sierra de Gredos stages, before the likes of the Andorra ski stations, Cerler, Cruz de la Demanda, Valdezcaray, Pla de Beret and Navacerrada became heartlands of the race in the 90s.

The edition Kelly won had MTFs at Brañillín (Pajáres), Cerler and Valdezcaray, as well as a cronoescalada to Monte Naranco and mountain stages to Andorra-la-Vella and Ávila.

 

[Gigs_98]

I tried to teach /r/peloton the ways of route criticism but they won't have it.

Anyway, I just struggle to see where Bernal is actually better than Roglic, apart from his team on a route where it's hard to leverage a strong team.

I also think Bernals rep wasn't helped by his 3rd Giro week and the Giro opposition.

Yeah those one and a half off days he had in the Giro were super weird but since he didn't end up completely cracking I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that this was a one off. It's not like he just cannot have a good shape over three weeks since he was back to being the strongest climber on stage 20. It might have been a sign that he tends to have off days though.

About Roglic, I don't know, it's not a secret that I'm not as convinced of him as a gc rider as most are. Moreover peaking for the Tour and crashing out cannot have been a perfect preparation for this race and last year Carapaz almost beat a not perfectly prepared Roglic.
Also, while the route clearly suits Roglic better than Bernal, the third week, where Roglic has had his problems in the past, looks really good for Bernal with the two hardest mtf's, one of which is an absolute monster, a really tough medium mountain stage where team strength might be vital and a very late TT which has been pretty bad for Roglic twice in the past.

 

[Billie]

Ineos have been absolute dogshit in the 3 GT's Carapaz has ridden for them. Let's see if it changes.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah those one and a half off days he had in the Giro were super weird but since he didn't end up completely cracking I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that this was a one off. It's not like he just cannot have a good shape over three weeks since he was back to being the strongest climber on stage 20. It might have been a sign that he tends to have off days though.

About Roglic, I don't know, it's not a secret that I'm not as convinced of him as a gc rider as most are. Moreover peaking for the Tour and crashing out cannot have been a perfect preparation for this race and last year Carapaz almost beat a not perfectly prepared Roglic.
Also, while the route clearly suits Roglic better than Bernal, the third week, where Roglic has had his problems in the past, looks really good for Bernal with the two hardest mtf's, one of which is an absolute monster, a really tough medium mountain stage where team strength might be vital and a very late TT which has been pretty bad for Roglic twice in the past.

Basically I'm assuming Roglic comes in fresh and in great form because he's barely raced in the last few months but dropped a monster Olympic ITT. I don't see how he struggles with fatigue as in the Vuelta last year.

Roglic dropped a grand 15s or so on Col de La Loze on stage 17 of the Tour last year. He was one of the best on the Portet in 2018. I don't see Bernal gaining all that he loses in the rest of the Vuelta just on Covadonga and Gamoniteiru.

 

[Serpentin]

Finally as race that is more about the GC riders than the sprinters.

Exactly, every stage has a meaning.

 

[sir fly]

Good opportunity for INEOS to explore the ways of multiple leadership with their lineup.
Roglič, I think, doesn't mind the shortcomings of the route.
Landa looking for revanche after the Giro, supported by the booming team.
Movi, Bardet, Ef, Chaves, and plenty of others with their ambitions.
Vuelta always produces entertainment.

The absence of Pogačar tells me they're uncertain he can contest the overall.
Maybe too early to conclude, considering his age, but possibly a single-peak material.
... Although the course of season doesn't suggest so.

 

[Gigs_98]

Exactly, every stage has a meaning.

And 6 times that meaning is sprint stage

 

[Anderis]

The absence of Pogačar tells me they're uncertain he can contest the overall.
Maybe too early to conclude, considering his age, but possibly a single-peak material.

I think it's just that the Tour-Vuelta GC combo with the Olympics road race on another continent in between would be just too much for a 22 years old who has been in form all year since February. You don't want to overrace a rider who still has 6 years of a multimillion contract left!

 

[KZD]

This Ineos team almost looks too strong on paper, too many leaders

 

[sir fly]

I think it's just that the Tour-Vuelta GC combo with the Olympics road race on another continent in between would be just too much for a 22 years old who has been in form all year since February. You don't want to overrace a rider who still has 6 years of a multimillion contract left!

Agreed.
And the Tour will most probably stay their priority in the future, meaning the Vuelta might become a backup option.