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86th Tour de Suisse (2.UWT) // June 11th - 18th 2023

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Big Doopie

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
The difference is day and night, and can not be explained away by cornering in a 13km TT. In the opening TT he was 37s faster than Küng over 16.5km before the climby part. Here he loses 6 seconds. That's 43s compared to Küng at the Giro. I didn't count ten 180 corners every kilometer to explain that drop. So clearly he is not remotely in the same shape and hopefully we can end this TDF bs once and for all.
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this.

precisely.

remco clearly responds amazingly well to high-altitude training. on top of which, he does not need much time to re-adapt afterward - see San Sebastian and LBLs.

however, i question what his climbing will be like in the TDS because he seems to really need that high altitude boost to be at his top there.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
The difference is day and night, and can not be explained away by cornering in a 13km TT. In the opening TT he was 37s faster than Küng over 16.5km before the climby part. Here he loses 6 seconds. That's 43s compared to Küng at the Giro. I didn't count ten 180 corners every kilometer to explain that drop. So clearly he is not remotely in the same shape and hopefully we can end this TDF bs once and for all.
Click to expand...
If he is not even remotely in the same shape he can go home. You can't conclude much from this TT. It was a short, technical and high speed with the top 8 being +55 km/h. He confirmed having technical difficulties during his interview. Apparently it felt differently during the recon at lower speed. He also said he can't yet "go through the wall" so there will be a difference in determination and shape vs the giro but I still think he does great. We'll see how it goes. The TDF bs might resurface ...
 
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titan31

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Big Doopie said:
this.

precisely.

remco clearly responds amazingly well to high-altitude training. on top of which, he does not need much time to re-adapt afterward - see San Sebastian and LBLs.

however, i question what his climbing will be like in the TDS because he seems to really need that high altitude boost to be at his top there.
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Tbf it'll be interesting to see what the other contenders here are like and all of them have to gain time back on Remco already (and there's another TT to come). Ayuso has had hardly any racing, the Ineos guys aren't top climbers anyway imo, and Vine has also raced the Giro so who knows how fresh he is. You're left then with Bardet who's probably a major threat here and the tier 3 GC guys like Teuns, Izaguirre, Bilbao, Schachmann etc

Really don't think Remco has to be at his best to win here, not unless Ayuso or Vine happen to be on top form.
 
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Mayomaniac

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
The difference is day and night, and can not be explained away by cornering in a 13km TT. In the opening TT he was 37s faster than Küng over 16.5km before the climby part. Here he loses 6 seconds. That's 43s compared to Küng at the Giro. I didn't count ten 180 corners every kilometer to explain that drop. So clearly he is not remotely in the same shape and hopefully we can end this TDF bs once and for all.
Click to expand...
I on't doubt that Remco isn't in Giro opening TT shape, but Küng was also clearly bellow his best at the start of the Giro (after a hard cobbles campaign), beaten by Almeida an Tao in that opening TT.

Sobrero did as well as one could expect today. He needs a TT that is longer and/or hillier.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend

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Mayomaniac said:
I on't doubt that Remco isn't in Giro opening TT shape, but Küng was also clearly bellow his best at the start of the Giro (after a hard cobbles campaign), beaten by Almeida an Tao in that opening TT.

Sobrero did as well as one could expect today. He needs a TT that is longer and/or hillier.
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If Küng was clearly below his best in the Giro, then there were still other TT'ers like Ganna to serve as a benchmark, who also lost 1s/km on the flat part.

What do you expect of Sobrero in the final TT? Other than Bissegger and maybe Price Pejtersen, i'm not seeing a lot of riders who were faster today, that would be at a disadvantage next week, on a longer course. In fact, with Asgreen, Vine, Ayuso only marginally slower today, i wouldn't rule out a worse result for Sobrero in the final TT.
 
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Mayomaniac

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
If Küng was clearly below his best in the Giro, then there were still other TT'ers like Ganna to serve as a benchmark, who also lost 1s/km on the flat part.

What do you expect of Sobrero in the final TT? Other than Bissegger and maybe Price Pejtersen, i'm not seeing a lot of riders who were faster today, that would be at a disadvantage next week, on a longer course. In fact, with Asgreen, Vine, Ayuso only marginally slower today, i wouldn't rule out a worse result for Sobrero in the final TT.
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Potentially top 5, if everything goes right for Sobrero in the final TT.
 
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titan31 said:
Tbf it'll be interesting to see what the other contenders here are like and all of them have to gain time back on Remco already (and there's another TT to come). Ayuso has had hardly any racing, the Ineos guys aren't top climbers anyway imo, and Vine has also raced the Giro so who knows how fresh he is. You're left then with Bardet who's probably a major threat here and the tier 3 GC guys like Teuns, Izaguirre, Bilbao, Schachmann etc

Really don't think Remco has to be at his best to win here, not unless Ayuso or Vine happen to be on top form.
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agreed. and the final TT should help.

i expect ayuso to be climbing much better than at romandie.

my gut is that when remco's form drops off a bit, he can still TT, it is his climbing that may become "ordinary"... just a feeling.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend

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Mayomaniac said:
Potentially top 5, if everything goes right for Sobrero in the final TT.
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I can't see him beating Küng, Van Aert or Evenepoel, so only two spots available to get into that top 5. Even his head to head vs Bissegger is hugely in Bissegger's favor for long TT's. Since 2019 he only beat Bisseger once in a long TT and that was Chrono des Nations. Sheffield hasn't done many long TT's but i think he has the engine for it and clearly is in shape. He was also strong last year in the WCC until he crashed. Skjelmose in theory should also be good at longer TT's but he doesn't have the results in international TT's to back that up, but he will go for GC so maybe he will be less fresh in the final TT. A rider like Asgreen has top 5-10 spots in the WCC and a much better track record in top field long TT's . It's possible, but as you say, everything will have to go right for him and not so much his direct competitors.
 
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I'm so happy for King Kung! It's only his second win this year. How many times have we read, written, or predicted that Stefan would fall short and we were right? In both ITTs and monuments...he's so close so often. Now can he win the next chrono? That would be such a feat.

If Ayuso is under-cooked, that makes today's performance all the more encouraging. Remco can't be disappointed, he's back on the saddle, he'll be just fine and remains the favorite.

Romain Grégoire is having a great rookie year, he's so good and learning so fast. I'm really pleased. Rigo, Powless, Bardet: not good. But all that matters is that a Swiss won and now leads le Tour de Suisse. Massive BRAVO to Stefan.
 
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