86th Tour de Suisse (2.UWT) // June 11th - 18th 2023

[Landeirovic]

I also think Evenepoel is too far, and the fact that the past 2 days were nutralised for GC, wasn't in his favor. Before the news of Mäder's horrible accident i kind of predicted he would take time back in the past 2 stages, if not with a raid, then with boniseconds. Clawing 15s back could have been enough. Now i could see him finish at 10s in GC, with the podium only 10-15s apart. He's not out of it yet, and with his Giro form i'd say kat in het bakkie, but not so much now. Additionally Ayuso and Skjelmose will start the TT fresh.


You think suddenly Evenepoel can't do hilly climbs anymore during a TT? This is a completely different matter as in a normal stage, where riders get to save energy behind other riders. Now Skjelmose and Ayuso also have to go balls out from the start, so they might very well lose additional time on the climbs.

did I ever say that Evenepoel can't? he's just not in good shape. that's why I say the 1st 17km he will take time. but the last 9km I see him losing time or keeping pace but not running out. we will see

 

[Mayomaniac]

I think everyone can understand that Mäder's teammates and friends didn't feel like racing and dropped out of the race.

About everything else, you really can't know how the riders deal with grief/such a situation and tell them how you should behave.

This situations always suck and it doesn't get better if you experience it often. As an outdoorsy person in the Alps multiple people that I know have died in the mountains (be it while hiking, rock climbing or under avalanches) and I know a decent amount of people who have experienced the same.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

did I ever say that Evenepoel can't? he's just not in good shape. that's why I say the 1st 17km he will take time. but the last 9km I see him losing time or keeping pace but not running out. we will see

Of course we'll see. It's just that climbing in a TT is a completely different matter than climbing in a normal stage. Here you can see how Küng and Ganna did the climbing section of the opening TT of the Giro a lot faster than actual climbers, like Vine, De Plus, Buitrago, Kämna. Completely different ballgame.

 

[peterfin]

If Remco is on his game it will be difficult. Procyclingstats predicts a 22 seconds per 10 km loss for Skjelmose based on the last 5 time trials. Of course there is a lot at stake for Skjelmose and Remco is not in optimal shape. On the other hand, Remco's struggles in the high mountains are likely due to a lack of altitude training. He won't feel it that much in the TT. His raid today confirms this. I also believe the profile of the TT suits him well. So I can still see him winning.

 

[nightowl]

Remco should win this TT but reckon GC will come down to how much time Skjelmose and Ayuso can take back on that last descent. Ayuso especially is capable of taking big chunks of time as we saw in the Romandie TT

 

[SHAD0W93]

I agree with @Logic-is-your-friend that Evenepoel might get close but has lost too much time. I actually think Ayuso will get the overall and Evenepoel finish within 10secs for second.

 

[Boehmand]

Interesting ITT tomorrow, especially on the back of 2 "rest days", which makes it completely impossible to predict.

Without those 2 days, I'd nornally say:

There is no doubt Evenepoel will start crazy fast, in an ettempt to shock Skjelmose and Ayuso at the first intermediate, but I don't see him taking 46 seconds on Skjelmose and if Ayuso is on it, he may even struggle to take 28 seconds on him - but then you never know with Evenepoel.

Gall I think will be a non-factor, he is simply not good enough in an ITT.

Ayuso I think may be the slight favourite to take yellow, as the climb at the end favours him... but he is very much still a hot/cold rider, who is great some days and terrible others.

Skjelmose would definitely be able to maintain his lead to both Ayuso and Evenpoel, if the ITT was early in the race, but he has a tendency to fade during 1-week races and this is the last day... if Skjelmose doesn't fade this time around and rides a stellar ITT, he wins the overall - and becomes a candidate for a top 10 at the Tour.

 

[Riek s]

I don't see Ayuso beating Skjelmose in the TT, let alone making up 18s.

I think Skjelmose has it in the bag if he stays upright and doesn't ride the worst TT in his life.
I'm expecting Remco to jump past Ayuso (barely), but not Skjelmose.

so final GC:
1. Skeljmose
2. Remco
3. Ayuso

probaby a podium within 20s.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I'm not sure 2 rest days will be enough for there to be an "instant classic" ITT tomorrow. In the Giro they needed 22 of them for it to happen.

It might still be close though between Skjelmose, Remco and Ayuso. The legs on the day will be decisive.

 

[Monsi]

The battle for yellow should be between Skjelmose, Ayuso, and Remco. Unfortunately, I see Gall dropping to fourth or even fifth if Wilco does a good TT.

Skjelmose started Suisse really well but he seemed to "weaken" as the race went on. Meanwhile, Ayuso was the opposite. He seemed to get better and better throughout the race. Whether that means anything for tomorrow, I have no idea.

Remco is still the favorite for the TT but can he overcome a 46 second deficit to Skjelmose and a 28 second deficit to Ayuso? His performance today indicates he could but I still have some doubts. If the terrain tomorrow was flat, Remco would've been the favorite to take yellow with his pure power. The hilly terrain tomorrow should make it a closer battle for yellow.

I think Remco wins the TT but Ayuso will win yellow while Skjelmose narrowly holds on to second ahead of Remco.

 

[titan31]

I think this one is hard to call. Even outside of normal TT form and ability, there's going to be a huge mental and emotional toll on everyone here which could hinder performance

 

[Nick2413]

I think Ayuso has more pressure, it’s time to start winning stage races now, and with the confidence of his big win 2 days ago and 2 rest days for freshness I see him taking it.

 

[houtdffan]

I think Ayuso has more pressure, it’s time to start winning stage races now, and with the confidence of his big win 2 days ago and 2 rest days for freshness I see him taking it.

when has Ayuso ever finished anywhere near Remco in a TT?

 

[PhiLiz]

when has Ayuso ever finished anywhere near Remco in a TT?

Only lost 19s in 12km in the opening prologue...

This one is twice as long but I'd say the climbing sections should benefit Ayuso.

Anyway, it'll be rather close between the three upfront.

 

[Landeirovic]

when has Ayuso ever finished anywhere near Remco in a TT?

how many did they do against each other? I think just 1

 

[PhiLiz]

how many did they do against each other? I think just 1

Two. Vuelta last year and this very race's prologue.

 

[Nick2413]

when has Ayuso ever finished anywhere near Remco in a TT?

I meant the GC over Skjelmose and holding off Remco.

 

[houtdffan]

I meant the GC over Skjelmose and holding off Remco.

Skjelmose will be harder

Neutralizing the past 2 stages screwed Remco as those stages favored him to at least get bonus seconds

 

[Nick2413]

Skjelmose will be harder

Neutralizing the past 2 stages screwed Remco as those stages favored him to at least get bonus seconds

You never know, maybe this whole racing with emotion thing for him is real and he can pull off something special. The climbs might moderate things a bit though.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Some people seem to Assume Evenepoel "should" win the TT, and while Küng has left, Van Aert is still here, and he should be better now than in the first TT when he just came back from altitude.

 

[Rob5091]

Weather seems to be good for the TT - apart from lots of pollen and ozone. As we won't see Remco again until the end of July at San Sebastian, I expect it to be full gas and a win, but he's 28 seconds down on Ayuso on GC who's shown he's pretty good at the TT-ing. Could be close for the GC.
How all feel after the tragic death of Mäder will obviously come into play.

 

[AlfaLum]

Skjelmose will be harder

Neutralizing the past 2 stages screwed Remco as those stages favored him to at least get bonus seconds

Both Ayuso and Skjelmose are pretty fast finishers as well. And both have been better climbers here. So it is by no means certain that Evenepoel would have won time in those two stages. Might have been the other way around.

I think however that Remco will pull it off today. Ayuso and Skjelmose are pretty good TT-ers, but Evenepoel is absolutely amazing on his best days. And he often has a best day when something tragic has happened.

 

[Red Rick]

It's ofcourse no given that Evenepoel will lose time on the uphill in the ITT, but I do think he's been better at the pan flat ITTs than the hilly ones historically

 

[Berniece]

I think it’s going to be close for GC. Remco will put more than 28s into Ayuso, just not sure about the 46s on Skjelmose that’s a pretty big gap.

 

[shadowrider]

wtf Remco? the descent was perfectly fine... i mean wtf?

Wtf your reaction. Evenepoel was one amongst a few others to react in a responsible way. Criticising the organisation while they put the finish immediately after a difficult descent. The descent itself is not the problem (known by most riders competing or training in the area). But having the finish at the end of the descent the organisers forced the attacker (Ayuso), the riders trying to come back for the win, the "general" riders (Bardet, Skjelmose, Gall, Kelderman) who had taken a (small) lead on other GC-riders, the GC-riders (Evenepoel etc.) having lost time in the climb etc., to descent agressively. The choice not to be obliged to take risks, was only theoretically. While Evenepoel didn't take risks (he is not good in descents and he doesn't take risks after his own nearly dead in Lombardia), other did. Result. Two crashes at 100 k/hour. One very lucky, another deceased.
So, Evenepoel was wright. I'm convinced organisers will no longer provide arrivals immediately after a difficult, steep and high speed descent. Unfortunately after another avoidable death... and a little bit after the critics of Evenepoel.