94th Giro d'Italia May 7 - 29

[Kwibus]

Really? If he tried to go solo on the descent and then go solo from the bottom of the Zoncolan, he'll go backwards pretty quickly and blow imo.

I do think Nibali learned how to ride his own pace very well during the Vuelta last year. He knows how to stay out of the red... atleast I hope he does.

It doesn't matter though since the favourites won't attack on the descent of the Crostis since it's too dangerous.

 

[just some guy]

I do think Nibali learned how to ride his own pace very well during the Vuelta last year. He knows how to stay out of the red... atleast I hope he does.

It doesn't matter though since the favourites won't attack on the descent of the Crostis since it's too dangerous.

If he is a minute or 2 behind and not seeing where else to gain time he will.

Why not use a strength where others have a weakness?

 

[Kwibus]

If he is a minute or 2 behind and not seeing where else to gain time he will.

Why not use a strength where others have a weakness?

Your right. It depends on the GC standings and then we'll see what happens. I'm pretty sure Nibali will be atleast 2 minutes behind Contador so it could become interesting. I just hope nobody gets hurt

 

[Ferminal]

Nibali could be down on Contador by the top, so he will need to descend back on.

Likewise, anyone out the front at the top will want to descend rapidly to increase their advantage.

I don't necessarily want Contador to lose, but I think it would be great for the race if he blew up on a climb, which is possible if he tries to do too much on 14 and 15 (whereas others will just attack Contador knowing that if they don't break him he will smash them on the final climbs of each day).

 

[Cimber]

+1. The parcours is great but in terms of racing I think it'll be boring

While I agree that Contador is likely to win this with a nice margin I dont think the race will be boring at all. First of all, this kind of parcours is not really controlable. Esp considering that while the SBS is good, its not great. Also, consider that the riders will fight hard for the podium, esp 2nd place, since that might turn into a 1st place if Contador gets a ban from CAS.

 

[will10]

Agree with the above. On a lot of the stages in the third week, Contador is going to be alone on the last climb or before then (Crostis), and he isn't going to be able to cover every move.

 

[greenedge]

who are the 2 others that could realistically challenge him. Mountains Anton/Rodriguez. Overall Menchov/ Scarponi. Nibali in between the 2.

 

[Sasquatch]

It really doesnt' matter if someone attacks before the Zoncolon anyway. Who is to say they will be brought back? Afterall, the top of the Crostis there will probably be a couple riders left from the peloton. Whoever attacks on the descent and can get a minute + can very well last till the end solo if he rides within his limit. There won't be a big peloton chasing him down on a climb.

 

[Publicus]

Agree with the above. On a lot of the stages in the third week, Contador is going to be alone on the last climb or before then (Crostis), and he isn't going to be able to cover every move.

That's probably true for EVERY contender save maybe Menchov. And by the third week, folks will have deficits of varying amounts to AC or vice versa which will alter how an attack by another rider is addressed. If Duarte is down 8 minutes and attacks, you don't follow. But if Scarponi is down 30 seconds and goes, you follow. And if AC is down, well he'll be the one looking to pick up time and won't, in that event, playing defense anyway.

Finally, of all of the top contenders, he can actually make up time on the final TT, so he does have some leeway to let certain attacks go. Not a lot mind you, but more than most of the other contenders.

 

[TeoSheva]

That's probably true for EVERY contender save maybe Menchov. And by the third week, folks will have deficits of varying amounts to AC or vice versa which will alter how an attack by another rider is addressed. If Duarte is down 8 minutes and attacks, you don't follow. But if Scarponi is down 30 seconds and goes, you follow. And if AC is down, well he'll be the one looking to pick up time and won't, in that event, playing defense anyway.

Finally, of all of the top contenders, he can actually make up time on the final TT, so he does have some leeway to let certain attacks go. Not a lot mind you, but more than most of the other contenders.

I will save also Scarponi: Spilak can be really important for him...
And I will not forget the Andrioni's guys! They can be 5 in the front while the other teams are only 2...

 

[vcampbell]

Uhhhh...
Only Dani and Jesus for High mountains?
Jesus has a decent form but Dani is sucking big time... hope that Porte find a climber legs from somewhere... Alberto is going to need him... Contador will have to ride the perfect tactical race to win this Giro...

I don't think that you should compare smaller races to the Giro. I'm sure that both Jesus and Navarro will be in perfect form when they leader need them.



Also I don't think that Nibali will attack on the Crostis descent, it's too dangerous. And remember the Montalcino stage last year, he and Basso were there very cautios too. And he also knows what everyone, he can't win the race on a descent, but he can lose it, and there he just need only one slip and then no Giro for him.

 

[Cimber]

Contador unsure of his form

After his cold and some breathing problems Contador is unsure about his form prior to the giro

http://translate.google.com/transla...contador-aner-ikke-hvor-han-står.html?forside

 

[Ferminal]

Narrowed KoM down to 4:

Sella - The only one versatile and consistent enough to compete for points from breaks, attacking out of the bunch and even scrapping for some which should be going to the top5 GC climbers. Two question marks though - we don't have a proper read on his "clean" form, and just how strong he can be, and we don't know if he will be completely free to attack.

Contador - The best GC climber.

Rodriguez - Someone who will have to attack on climbs to get time gaps, will most likely be unsuccessful, but there is a chance he wins a couple of stages/climbs from Contador etc.

Anton - Much the same as Rodriguez, and arguably the better climber.

I've omitted Scarponi and Menchov, because even though one of them could be the next best climber (behind Contador), I feel they are less likely to attack for the big points.

Someone like Machado would be worth considering, if we knew he wasn't targetting GC.

Apart from them it's just picking people who might have a super day in a good break, but they would probably have to do it on 5-6 of the 8 good days for break points, I'm not sure there is anyone capable of that.

 

[roundabout]

Garzelli could be too old, but I won't rule him out as a KoM contender yet.

 

[Publicus]

After his cold and some breathing problems Contador is unsure about his form prior to the giro

http://translate.google.com/transla...contador-aner-ikke-hvor-han-står.html?forside

I wouldn't read too much into his statements here.

 

[Eshnar]

And remember the Montalcino stage last year, he and Basso were there very cautios too.

They crashed before the mud and spent the rest of the stage chasing together...
Cautious?

 

[Sasquatch]

Ferminal;

Sella is the best one from Androni. Maybe Rodriguez?

Sella will hunt for stage wins. Androni will want stage wins and a high place on GC out of this. They probably wouldn't mind picking up the KOM jersey either like they did when Rujano came third in 2005. Sella is the man for that. Agree.

I think that if a rider picks it up early, say a pineau, tschopp or a type like that then they could hold it till the end.

Stage 3 a rider can pick up points - only one cat 3 climb
Stage 4 the same rider can pick up points - only one cat 3 climb
Stage 5 the same rider can pick up points - only two cat 3 climbs
Stage 7 the same rider can pick up points - only one cat 2 climb

If a rider gets in a break on those days and they get the jersey early, someone could do a Lloyd and hold it.

Stage 9 a cat one in the middle of the stage. That said rider has had a couple days to recover.
Stage 13 a cat two, three and two before the final climb. Can pick up points on those climbs after a good rest.
Could back up on Stage 14
Could give stage 15 a miss.
Take it easy in the time trial
Go for the points in stage 17 when a break will go away with a cat 2 climb and a cat 3 climb
Stage 18 a cat 2 climb - the only climb in the stage.

I daresay that the rider that gets the jersey early in the first week can very well defend it if they have the legs and those four bigger names won't be going in breaks.

 

[just some guy]

I think Tschopp is a good bet - get the points early, defend in the earlier parts of the bigger mountain stages.

Use the young guys from the team as point fodder ( stopping others from collecting ) until they explode.

I really have a feeling that BMC are going to target the KOM as a team and hope for a lucky breakaway win.

Tschopp finished 3rd last year I think so understand the program.

The TTT will help set the team up to get in breakaways being minutes behind for stage 2.

Infact the whole BMC could maybe attach from KM 1 stage 2 and the group would let them go.

But the kids will learn alot from the experience - do them good for the future.

 

[jens_attacks]

After his cold and some breathing problems Contador is unsure about his form prior to the giro

http://translate.google.com/transla...contador-aner-ikke-hvor-han-står.html?forside

yeah right the usual "i'm not the big favourite here,there are others" thing of alberto before every race.what i want to discuss with you is what kind of strategy will alberto choose?my guess is that he will pick an armstrong one,kill them all in the first mountaintop finish,take one minute to all other favourites on etna and then some more on grosslockner.i don't think he will go full gas on the stages next to come.three minutes separated by the second rider in GC while waiting the time trial should be enough.he wants some freshness for le tour too.
of course i don't want this to happen.if he wins this giro,i hope he'll win it after a fierce battle,fiercer even than in 2008.

 

[Eshnar]

imho in the descent of Crostis someone will gain time. There's no need to attack... the best descender will naturally gain time. Maybe even a minute.
I remember Savoldelli gaining 1-2 minutes to everyone on the descent of Duran and saying "I didn't attack on the descent because I was too tired and hadn't lucidity"

 

[Sasquatch]

I think Tschopp is a good bet - get the points early, defend in the earlier parts of the bigger mountain stages.

Use the young guys from the team as point fodder ( stopping others from collecting ) until they explode.

I really have a feeling that BMC are going to target the KOM as a team and hope for a lucky breakaway win.

Tschopp finished 3rd last year I think so understand the program.

The TTT will help set the team up to get in breakaways being minutes behind for stage 2.

Infact the whole BMC could maybe attach from KM 1 stage 2 and the group would let them go.

But the kids will learn alot from the experience - do them good for the future.

Good point. They may as well target it as a backup if they don't get a stage win.

 

[Kwibus]

After his cold and some breathing problems Contador is unsure about his form prior to the giro

http://translate.google.com/transla...contador-aner-ikke-hvor-han-står.html?forside

Contador always doubts his form and has some excuse added to it. I don't take it too seriously.

 

[Sasquatch]

He's just playing the mind games. Of course no one is going to believe him. He needs to fake a training crash. Like ride into the back of a team car. Limp up to the team presentation. That's the way he can play down his chances.

 

[No_Balls]

After his cold and some breathing problems Contador is unsure about his form prior to the giro

http://translate.google.com/transla...contador-aner-ikke-hvor-han-står.html?forside

It´s like when he blitzed up trough Zoncolan and Crostis, having a little laugh, took some pictures and afterwards said he "feared" them. Conta never was good with mindgames.

I don´t think anyone takes that, who have looked at him during the building-up sessions, statement really serious.

 

[Bavarianrider]

The downhill of the Crostis will be epic :