Sasquatch said:
Call me crazy but I do believe a sprinter could win the points jersey if they really want it. A sprinter that is strong enough with a strong enough team to control the peloton over early stages where climbs are near the finish and sprint for 2nd or 3rd place, (assuming a rider or two tries an adventurous break), could very well survive the mountains and win the jersey.
Those stages in the middle will be the tough ones but that gives that sprinter an opportunity to go in a breakaway too.
The problem is many of them will DNS/DNF before or during the killer weekend. So all points earned are trashed from the race. Last year not one of the (bunch sprint) stage winners finished the race, Greipel was the last to withdraw after he finally won a stage heading into the final weekend. The points classification looks rather silly, with Henderson the first recognised sprinter in 10th.
After Stage 12 there are nine stages of punishment ahead for the sprinters, I'm just not sure any of them will want to endure it when most of them have goals for July.
2, 10 and 12 are locks for a classic bunch sprint.
3 and 4 are 50/50. If 3 is a sprint it might be for the stronger types who were able to stay at the front over the final ramp. 4 should be a sprint, but not all of them will necessarily make it back over the climb.
6 will be a sprint if the teams are strong enough, but the gradual climb will weaken them and the final km rises slightly, the top10 may be mixed.
8 will be another exercise of sprinters vs puncheurs.
For arguments sake, say Petacchi, Cav, Farrar etc could top5 on 5 or 6 of those days (even if an attack wins, they can still sprint for the minors).
For the others:
5 and 11 will be puncheurs vs climbers.
7, 9, 13, 14, 15, 19, 20 all MTFs.
16 is the ITT which will be climbers vs ITT'ers.
17 and 18 will probably be break-days, with climbers and maybe the toughest sprinters/puncheurs in the bunch.
Say 2 of the 7 MTFs go to the break (I think only 1 though - Montervergine
or Macugnaga), that leaves 5 for the main GC climbers to contest. Even then, it's doubtful a successful break will be huge, eating up all the points for the contenders.
Both the ITTs will favour Contador more than any other points contender.
In no particular order I would have Contador, Rodriguez, Scarponi, Visconti and Ventoso as challengers for the points.
There are probably too many genuine sprinters for someone like Visconti (in the mould of Bettini 2005) to take it. Ventoso is interesting as he can top10 in the full sprints and win the harder ones. Yet he has been away from the top level for a while, I'm not sure how he will handle a GT.
Unless Cav, Farrar or Petacchi come out and say they will be in top form and will complete the race, I'm not confident in any sprinter, other than Ventoso.