97th Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2011

[jaylew]

Valverde might beat him nine out of ten times on flattish sprints, but uphill?

8 out of 10.

Must revise after today to 6 out of 10. Ok, maybe 5.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Must revise after today to 6 out of 10. Ok, maybe 5.

4
and a wasted use of words

 

[greenedge]

like it or not, gilbert isnt.

to be trully awesome, you have to be a champion. to be a champion, you have to dominate TTs, or GTs, lots of stage races, or monuments, or worlds or lots of sprinting stages.

gilbert wins the smalest classics (some of them) and won the monument with the weakest field 2times.

he is by far the most overated rider because of his power in a few hills and because some guys (pistol) think that he is really young and has lots of years when he can retire first than valv or (especially) canc for example .

this victory for example, is clearly inferior in everything compared to valverde's one in the first stage of the tour some years ago.

gilbert palmares is really small compared to the true champions.

if you put gilbert's abilities in some sort of database, you may see that he is worse than valv in pretty much anything, even worse in mountains than cancellara, but has a better acceleration. and thats it.

no personal opinion in it, but facts.

for the race, since he is the only 100 %hilly classics specialist (where's the bettinis rebelin boogerds of this generation?weak.) there and the others have another goal left that has nothing to do with classics, he is the favourite and, unlike the true superman, he has a good team. however, lets see what happens. the shelecks dont have what it takes to be true champions, evans and valv arent there. also conti isnt there, i would like contador to win this one day. vino is off form.

who is there to challenge him?

You can't say Gilbert is competing in a weak field. People like Boonen do not dominate in Gt's. All round if you were to get a race between Cav and Contador, Alby will drop him in 2 seconds. He is dominating in the classics, he dominated in last yr's worlds too. He went 4 secs quicker than Canc's superman ride up the Bosberg last yr. He is sustaining form. Gilbert for these reasons has reached the stage of being classified as GREAT.

Ps earlier on i talked about contador vs cav. It was to illustrate the fact some riders are meant for all races, Gilbert is also vs people who would win those races.

 

[The Hitch]

He is dominating in the classics, he dominated in last yr's worlds too. He went 4 secs quicker than Canc's superman ride up the Bosberg last yr. He is sustaining form.
.

He may be dominating these Ardennes classics (not all, classics- didnt do much on cobbles) but he sure as hell didnt dominate the worlds and when are people going to get it into their heads that a pure sprint up the Bosberg by a climber from a fresh start with no real intention to stay away afterwards is nowhere near as impressive as a slightly slower ride up the climb by a power rider whose been away for 30k and needed enough energy to do a 14k itt immediately afterwards.

 

[El Pistolero]

Meh, Chavanal said Cancellara went quite slow in the RVV during his solo ride. And he didn't went much slower on the Muur this year compared to last year. And no one had any problem following him.

Phil was on another level than all the rest at the worlds last year though. Had the wind been different Hushovd wouldn't have been world champion.

 

[The Hitch]

Meh, Chavanal said Cancellara went quite slow in the RVV during his solo ride.

We are obviously talking about Cancellara in 2010 not 2011 (see Green edge post and the words "Last Year").

 

[El Pistolero]

I know, his times on the Muur and Bosberg weren't slower this year than last year. Not by much anyway.

I hope the RVV finishes in Ronse next year. Then you'll see some domination A hill every 3-4km in the final. Vamos Gilbert!

 

[theyoungest]

I know, his times on the Muur and Bosberg weren't slower this year than last year. Not by much anyway.

You really can't compare that. The effort was totally different. Gilbert couldn't do what Cancellara did in Flanders last year.

 

[TeoSheva]

like it or not, gilbert isnt.

to be trully awesome, you have to be a champion. to be a champion, you have to dominate TTs, or GTs, lots of stage races, or monuments, or worlds or lots of sprinting stages.

gilbert wins the smalest classics (some of them) and won the monument with the weakest field 2times.

he is by far the most overated rider because of his power in a few hills and because some guys (pistol) think that he is really young and has lots of years when he can retire first than valv or (especially) canc for example .

this victory for example, is clearly inferior in everything compared to valverde's one in the first stage of the tour some years ago.

gilbert palmares is really small compared to the true champions.

if you put gilbert's abilities in some sort of database, you may see that he is worse than valv in pretty much anything, even worse in mountains than cancellara, but has a better acceleration. and thats it.

no personal opinion in it, but facts.

for the race, since he is the only 100 %hilly classics specialist (where's the bettinis rebelin boogerds of this generation?weak.) there and the others have another goal left that has nothing to do with classics, he is the favourite and, unlike the true superman, he has a good team. however, lets see what happens. the shelecks dont have what it takes to be true champions, evans and valv arent there. also conti isnt there, i would like contador to win this one day. vino is off form.

who is there to challenge him?

tell me that this guy is joking...please do it!

 

[boomcie]

tell me that this guy is joking...please do it!

He's not joking. He has an obsession with the term champion and it not applying to Gilbert.

 

[beer_thirty]

He may be dominating these Ardennes classics (not all, classics- didnt do much on cobbles) but he sure as hell didnt dominate the worlds and when are people going to get it into their heads that a pure sprint up the Bosberg by a climber from a fresh start with no real intention to stay away afterwards is nowhere near as impressive as a slightly slower ride up the climb by a power rider whose been away for 30k and needed enough energy to do a 14k itt immediately afterwards.

this.

I think Phil can win on Sunday, but he's going to need his team to be on a great day. You just KNOW Vino is going off the front, and Gilbert better be on that train. He's better this year than last but I still don't think the Phil of this year could finish closing down the gap he could not close last year. That long drag to the finish is nasty; if he does win I don't see it being solo for sure. Group of 3-4 perhaps.

REALLY going to miss Cuddles in this one; great course for him.

After yesterday Katusha look very scary indeed for Sunday. I would frankly enjoy seeing Kolobnev win; relentless attacker.. be fun to see him pull one off.

My second favorite race of the season coming up!

 

[boomcie]

One on one Vino will never beat Gilbert. Hell, one on one he wouldn't even have won LBL once. He just has a nose for the right moments and he has a lot grinta. Not the strongest rider though. Flame away.

 

[Carl0880]

One on one Vino will never beat Gilbert. Hell, one on one he wouldn't even have won LBL once. He just has a nose for the right moments and he has a lot grinta. Not the strongest rider though. Flame away.

Fairly accurate assessment actually. He can win sprints from 2 or 3 riders pending on whom the riders are. He was involved in quite a few Sprints in Tour stages in a breakaway, and usually finished 2nd or 3rd. Vinos wins because when the favorites start to look around at each other or when the pace slows, he just keep going. The favorites will freewheel waiting for each other to take up the chase, and by the time they do he gone. He has quite a few victories where he attacks at the very top of a climb (Usually a 3-5km climb about 5-15 km from the finish), and continue on the descent, when most favorites when they get within a few hundred meters of the climb they slowdown, ending aggressions. Examples being the TOur of Basque stage this year, Revel in the Tour last year. He enters most races as possible winner of the race, but rarely the favorite.

Gilbert's main advantage in the Ardennes is the strength of his team. A team with two possible winners will need to use the famous 1-2 attack system to beat his team IMO. Katusha (Kolobnev, Purito), Leopard (Schlecks), are two such teams.

 

[Sparta]

A lone victory or next best a very small breakaway of 3 riders max is probably going to be the best way of beating Gilbert, similar to last year. As has been said above this is why Vino becomes the biggest rival as he is still a stronger time trialist than Gilbert or any of the other contenders. He proved he still has it in pais vasco (I think) Other contenders just aren't really strong enough if they get a gap, which is why Evans is big miss.

The problem with Rodriguez is that despite being a completely different rider to Gilbert his strengths in the classics are very similar - being able to accelerate away from everyone on the uphill sections.

 

[jaylew]

Hell, one on one he wouldn't even have won LBL once. He just has a nose for the right moments and he has a lot grinta. Not the strongest rider though. Flame away.

Weren't both of his LBL wins one-on-one?

 

[El Pistolero]

Weren't both of his LBL wins one-on-one?

No, 2005 was out a breakaway. Boogerd was clearly stronger.

2010 was with a tactical attack and Contador helping him out in the back.

 

[jaylew]

2005: one-on-one v. Voigt
2010: one-on-one v. Kolobnev

 

[El Pistolero]

2005: one-on-one v. Voigt
2010: one-on-one v. Kolobnev

He said one on one with Gilbert

Not with Voigt...

 

[lucybears]

and Joaquim RODRIGUEZ OLIVER has vanished....
http://www.letour.fr/2011/LBL/RIDERS/fr/engages.html

 

[boomcie]

2005: one-on-one v. Voigt
2010: one-on-one v. Kolobnev

He said one on one with Gilbert

Not with Voigt...

Exactly. I mean one on one with the strongest riders in the race. He won both editions in a "breakaway". He needs to get away from the best riders to win it. That's just plain true.

 

[greenedge]

Riders from teams who could win

Vino, one of the main contenders, smart and tough. Has a strong team around him.
Katusha any of their superdomestiques and Rodriguez. Have an attacking mindset that should win them the race.
Kiryienka surprised in F-W, i'd tipped to win from a breakaway and was on the edge of my seat. looks strong but will probably be outmuscled. Tondo failed in F-W too.
Ben Hermans is stringing together some good results. He is my Dark horse.
TJVG?
Garate or Martens. They should not ride for Gesink.
Have a few good riders who can survive the climbs then TT away to victory, Meyer, Hesjedal etc.
Leopard have really strong team. Want to see them win something this season.
Moinard???? Can't ride for GVA.
Gerras should be suited to this more than F-W.
Gilbert. Everyone wants to see him win.
Cunego, nah.
I think quickstep could go well. Devenyns and Pineau put in good performances in F-W and they have a leader in Chavanel. How good would that be.
Porte or Chris Anker Sorensen. Sorensen can climb and is good in a smallish sprint. Porte if he survives could TT away. Who could reel him back in?
Nibali and Basso have not reached great form. No idea.
Sanchez and Anton form a good dynamic racing duo.
Kadri put in a futile attack but any from this team could time an attack to perfection
Golas, Poels, Marcato, Leukemans, Hoogerland, Devolder, De Gendt, Westra. Who rides for who. Strong riders who shall not do any work as they are not favourites. Expect them to be attacking near end.
Rest ( Taaramae, Moncoutie, Docker is back, Fedrigo, Roy, Coppel and maybe Cornu )

 

[hrotha]

Tondo failed in F-W too.

Tondo was sick and didn't start F-W. Now, LBL is the classic where any good stage racer in good form can conceivably get a top 10, but I still imagine his illness and lack of experience will play against him.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Devenyns will nail this!

 

[Cobblestoned]

Tony Martin wants the Top10 on Sunday.
Good and realistic goal I would say. Panzerwagen would like to win this one day.

After this, they make a decison about preparation for the Tour.

Tour de Romandie + Bayern-Rundfahrt + Tour de Suisse,
or Romandie + Dauphiné Libére

http://www.radsport-news.com/sport/sportnews_68642.htm

 

[El Pistolero]

Meh, I've never seen Tony Martin do well in a classic. Seems like a guy that will break after a flurry of attacks. Something he isn't used to. This ain't Paris-Nice where no one has heard of the word attack.