Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Apart from the ITT in the Giro, has Contador done anything this year that was super impressive? On the Mortirolo stage of the Giro, which is probably his most "impressive" race of the year, if you look at it objectively, it wasn't that impressive. It looked more impressive than it was based on outside factors (Astana "tactics), but he still got dropped at the end of that race. Everyone keeps saying "wait for this, wait for that" as if he's going to come onto some magical form at some point. I just don't see it. Frankly, lots of excuses for many of his Giro performances (not on top form, conserving energy, no reason to chase certain guys, etc...) Go rewatch Contador of 5, 6, 7 years ago...he was absolutely devastating. I see NONE of that now. He is slow, lacks any explosiveness, and he looks all twisted up when he climbs (I know he has his signature climbing style, but it looks pained now, it's not nearly as fluid or efficient). He was good enough to win the Giro against a pretty mediocre field, but this year's tour is a Big-Boy race, and so far he is showing to be a level (or two) below the other main contenders. I'll keep waiting for the flash of brilliance, but I have no reason, based on watching his races this year, to believe it will come.

Anyway, Froome was clearly the #1 favorite for the Tour, so there really should be no surprise. A fully rested AC would have trouble beating Froome anyway, IMO, but add in the Giro, and his "just OK" form so far this year, and I could see him finishing somewhere around top 10, but not higher. It's strange to me that he'd make 2015 the year he'd go for the double...he's on the wrong side of 30, and we are in an era of several top riders. From the start, this was going to be a very difficult challenge, and his form this year is showing it may not quite be good enough.

He did a great ITT in the Giro, at the level of Kiriyenka and Luis leon, but it looks more impressive becouse Rigo and Porte werent at his best, if they would have put 2 minutes on him, maybe thta performance looks worse. 1 minute to krujswick is no so impressive.

No Tony Martin, no Domoulin, no Cancellara, no Wiggins, no Froome, no Nibali,...

Maybe today he could have beated Aru on Huy, but this is le Tour and there are stroger rivals.. he anyway did a mistake by following Froome.
Do you really thought Contador tried this year Giro-Tour becouse he feels very strong or something like that??

He knew Quintana and Nibali didnt racen Il Giro and he had the oportunity to save the season by wining the Giro, He was lucky there Porte and Rigo had serious problems. and Aru was more important than Landa for Astana. Other way difficult to win.

In le Tour he can managed to do it well, with an strongb team and his experience, if he is lucky with crashes he can do something like podium and to say he won Giro and podium in le Tour, if he is not lucky with crashes he has already an excuse.

Yesterday was lucky becouse Nibali was stronger than him, but he put 1:30 on him, it is not just luck, is to know how to handle a team as well, but he is better in GC now than others no for strenght. Purito crashed as well, but I admit he can be better than Purito, Pinot and Quintana on the wind. If his luck continue he could be podium, today Uran crashed, more options.. but Froome and Tejay are lucky as well and Quintana looks stronger for the mountains... no easy.

 

[Electress]

Re:

I still don't see the teeth gritting on the penultimate climb. And I also don't think he would have Majka set such a tempo, if he was uncomfortable. He was clearly feeling good, and then suddenly totally blew up.

Otherwise it wouldn't make sense to have Majka set such a hard pace, and then try to overtake Froome. I can see his explanation about lacking sugar, but I think that's more wishful thinking on his own part than the truth.

I'll still also point out that he have Basso as his season long roomie and friend, who did the last successfull Giro-Tour in 2005. On the first MTF he was dropped over a minute, and from that point on he was the strongest with Armstrong. I think Basso have also told him what he did that year to recover, and not go into the Tour at a high level.

You could also argue that it's a hard Tour this year... back in the days almost up to stage 10, there were no real tests for the GC guys, so you had 8-9 days to find race rhytm. This year you have to be on point from the start, and Contador obvious can't do that.

It's a bit late to try and find it, but that was my memory.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

Taxus did Alberto kick your puppy? Steal your girlfriend? Why do you dislike him so much?

I want to know the answers to these questions as well!

I try to be objetive, but he is a lier and almost as mafious as Lance...

I use to say aupa Alberto to him on the races, but what he did withLlanda is this Giro was so ugly that maybe no more times for him. I was happy to see hoy he couldn follow Landa in Finestre as today the same with Froome.

What?

Thank you for answering by the way.

He didnt admit ever Landa was the stronger in the climbs till last day when the road talked so clear than was impossible admit other thing.

He didnt talked even about him any day, irt was like if he didnt ride... in mortirolo stage what landadid so impresive, but he just only talk about kruijwick, saying several times to remark he was the stringer of the stage, when to put 34 second in 4 kms of false flat for a rider like landa showed he climbed Mortirolo very easy and he was the stronger. Of course contador recover than 50 seconds and the help of otherriders in Mortirolo is relative, but 34 second in those 4 kms is a big difference againt 2 riders working to say Landa was the stronger.

He was just following that wheel at the end, allowing Aru to get the second place.

Landa didnt attack in the Mortirolo when he was working and Contador was following different riders wheels in the Mortirolo: Antón, Hesjedal, etc...to come banck at his wheel, but he didnt hesitate next day to attack when Landa crashed. What a big champion!

Contador admited he didnt won the Giro just by legs, he was clever and he is able to do it, but a chamipon looks for his oponent and try to beat him mano a mano and if he lose, he admit.

But that actitude with Landa is just a problemto say aupa Contador again, I have said always the same of this rider, especially since I know some things.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

But I meant there must be so many haters or people who are not loving him and think he is God's gift to mankind and apparently it is a day job blocking everyone. They try to get through life without reading any criticism? lol

Well it gets even weirder because they are now also blocking people just for supporting Contador! Many of these people have never tweeted a single bad word about Froome, I've seen dozens of them mentioning getting blocked in the past few months.

I dont know how is here, but in Spain lot of Contador fans put ugly nicknames to Froome and say for sure he is a doper.

Here I didnt see very different things, but I admit here contador has fans that just like contador and dont attack other riders, and that is good.

But to say objetives things is not to attack.. if I say he i a lier is eeasy to admit when he said he didnt see any problem with andy and the chaien when he passed just at his side and he attacked just in that point in al the climb.

He needed had to put any ezcuse, he is free to attack when ever, maybe is not the most polite for a true champion ti attack just in that point, but is OK, to lie and dont admit that is not OK for me. and to call him a lier is not to attack, it is just a fact. he used to lie frequenty, I wont ride la Vuelta, I have a broken bone when is no broken,... (I never doped it was the same for aeverybody in the last era and that is not really his fault, but he was in an spainsh BS program that talks about spanish famous people to talk about that...)

When I was acredited in la Vuelta I had to talk always well about Contador, and I did that way and I wrote about his nice victory in Fuente De very well later in my blog, but this is a forum and I am free.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Apart from the ITT in the Giro, has Contador done anything this year that was super impressive? On the Mortirolo stage of the Giro, which is probably his most "impressive" race of the year, if you look at it objectively, it wasn't that impressive. It looked more impressive than it was based on outside factors (Astana "tactics), but he still got dropped at the end of that race. Everyone keeps saying "wait for this, wait for that" as if he's going to come onto some magical form at some point. I just don't see it. Frankly, lots of excuses for many of his Giro performances (not on top form, conserving energy, no reason to chase certain guys, etc...) Go rewatch Contador of 5, 6, 7 years ago...he was absolutely devastating. I see NONE of that now. He is slow, lacks any explosiveness, and he looks all twisted up when he climbs (I know he has his signature climbing style, but it looks pained now, it's not nearly as fluid or efficient). He was good enough to win the Giro against a pretty mediocre field, but this year's tour is a Big-Boy race, and so far he is showing to be a level (or two) below the other main contenders. I'll keep waiting for the flash of brilliance, but I have no reason, based on watching his races this year, to believe it will come.

Anyway, Froome was clearly the #1 favorite for the Tour, so there really should be no surprise. A fully rested AC would have trouble beating Froome anyway, IMO, but add in the Giro, and his "just OK" form so far this year, and I could see him finishing somewhere around top 10, but not higher. It's strange to me that he'd make 2015 the year he'd go for the double...he's on the wrong side of 30, and we are in an era of several top riders. From the start, this was going to be a very difficult challenge, and his form this year is showing it may not quite be good enough.

He did a great ITT in the Giro, at the level of Kiriyenka and Luis leon, but it looks more impressive becouse Rigo and Porte werent at his best, if they would have put 2 minutes on him, maybe thta performance looks worse. 1 minute to krujswick is no so impressive.

No Tony Martin, no Domoulin, no Cancellara, no Wiggins, no Froome, no Nibali,...

Maybe today he could have beated Aru on Huy, but this is le Tour and there are stroger rivals.. he anyway did a mistake by following Froome.
Do you really thought Contador tried this year Giro-Tour becouse he feels very strong or something like that??

He knew Quintana and Nibali didnt racen Il Giro and he had the oportunity to save the season by wining the Giro, He was lucky there Porte and Rigo had serious problems. and Aru was more important than Landa for Astana. Other way difficult to win.

In le Tour he can managed to do it well, with an strongb team and his experience, if he is lucky with crashes he can do something like podium and to say he won Giro and podium in le Tour, if he is not lucky with crashes he has already an excuse.

Yesterday was lucky becouse Nibali was stronger than him, but he put 1:30 on him, it is not just luck, is to know how to handle a team as well, but he is better in GC now than others no for strenght. Purito crashed as well, but I admit he can be better than Purito, Pinot and Quintana on the wind. If his luck continue he could be podium, today Uran crashed, more options.. but Froome and Tejay are lucky as well and Quintana looks stronger for the mountains... no easy.

How do you know Nibali was stronger than AC yesterday? Did they reveal to you their power stats or something?

 

[mr. tibbs]

Wow, the activity from one poster in this thread is... well, it's impressive, I guess. I've never actually been tempted to use the ignore feature before, and I joined this forum in the first month of its existence. But Taxus. Wow.

 

[veganrob]

This is not the first time Alberto has not looked good at the beginning of a GT and he almost always improves as time goes on. Granted this is somewhat unchartered territory for him but FFS it is only Stage 3. And Froome looked on the limit today anyway. He had huge grimace on his face coming to the line.

 

[IamIronMan]

Re:

Wow, the activity from one poster in this thread is... well, it's impressive, I guess. I've never actually been tempted to use the ignore feature before, and I joined this forum in the first month of its existence. But Taxus. Wow.

Hey thanks, I just realized there is such a feature. At least most of Taxus' rubbish will be ignored, except when he's quoted. To liken Contador to Armstrong is probably the stupidest thing I've read on here, including in the clinic.

Taxus ignored!

 

[IamIronMan]

Re:

This is not the first time Alberto has not looked good at the beginning of a GT and he almost always improves as time goes on. Granted this is somewhat unchartered territory for him but FFS it is only Stage 3. And Froome looked on the limit today anyway. He had huge grimace on his face coming to the line.

He hasn't looked good in the first 3 stages. He better turn it around soon, but I don't see it happening.

 

[Ryaguas]

Re: Re:

Taxus did Alberto kick your puppy? Steal your girlfriend? Why do you dislike him so much?

I want to know the answers to these questions as well!

I try to be objetive, but he is a lier and almost as mafious as Lance...

I use to say aupa Alberto to him on the races, but what he did withLlanda is this Giro was so ugly that maybe no more times for him. I was happy to see hoy he couldn follow Landa in Finestre as today the same with Froome.

What?

Thank you for answering by the way.

He didnt admit ever Landa was the stronger in the climbs till last day when the road talked so clear than was impossible admit other thing.

He didnt talked even about him any day, irt was like if he didnt ride... in mortirolo stage what landadid so impresive, but he just only talk about kruijwick, saying several times to remark he was the stringer of the stage, when to put 34 second in 4 kms of false flat for a rider like landa showed he climbed Mortirolo very easy and he was the stronger. Of course contador recover than 50 seconds and the help of otherriders in Mortirolo is relative, but 34 second in those 4 kms is a big difference againt 2 riders working to say Landa was the stronger.

He was just following that wheel at the end, allowing Aru to get the second place.

Landa didnt attack in the Mortirolo when he was working and Contador was following different riders wheels in the Mortirolo: Antón, Hesjedal, etc...to come banck at his wheel, but he didnt hesitate next day to attack when Landa crashed. What a big champion!

Contador admited he didnt won the Giro just by legs, he was clever and he is able to do it, but a chamipon looks for his oponent and try to beat him mano a mano and if he lose, he admit.

But that actitude with Landa is just a problemto say aupa Contador again, I have said always the same of this rider, especially since I know some things.

Yeah Yeah, you always know things and heard this and have some friends that are so close to a friend that know things... how old are you man? 15? da fuq... quite amazing your attitude.

 

[richwagmn]

Re:

Apart from the ITT in the Giro, has Contador done anything this year that was super impressive?

Anyway, Froome was clearly the #1 favorite for the Tour, so there really should be no surprise. A fully rested AC would have trouble beating Froome anyway, IMO, but add in the Giro, and his "just OK" form so far this year, and I could see him finishing somewhere around top 10, but not higher. It's strange to me that he'd make 2015 the year he'd go for the double...he's on the wrong side of 30, and we are in an era of several top riders. From the start, this was going to be a very difficult challenge, and his form this year is showing it may not quite be good enough.

a) Winning the Giro was pretty impressive wasn't it? Or was that not good enough for you?
b) Froome is 30. Is he on the right side of it? And seriously, two years difference in age??? Hey Quintana is 25, he must be much better than Froome right?

Oh yea, who was that guy who stomped all over Froome in the Vuelta? Alberto somebody right?

 

[IamIronMan]

Re: Re:

Apart from the ITT in the Giro, has Contador done anything this year that was super impressive? On the Mortirolo stage of the Giro, which is probably his most "impressive" race of the year, if you look at it objectively, it wasn't that impressive. It looked more impressive than it was based on outside factors (Astana "tactics), but he still got dropped at the end of that race. Everyone keeps saying "wait for this, wait for that" as if he's going to come onto some magical form at some point. I just don't see it. Frankly, lots of excuses for many of his Giro performances (not on top form, conserving energy, no reason to chase certain guys, etc...) Go rewatch Contador of 5, 6, 7 years ago...he was absolutely devastating. I see NONE of that now. He is slow, lacks any explosiveness, and he looks all twisted up when he climbs (I know he has his signature climbing style, but it looks pained now, it's not nearly as fluid or efficient). He was good enough to win the Giro against a pretty mediocre field, but this year's tour is a Big-Boy race, and so far he is showing to be a level (or two) below the other main contenders. I'll keep waiting for the flash of brilliance, but I have no reason, based on watching his races this year, to believe it will come.

Anyway, Froome was clearly the #1 favorite for the Tour, so there really should be no surprise. A fully rested AC would have trouble beating Froome anyway, IMO, but add in the Giro, and his "just OK" form so far this year, and I could see him finishing somewhere around top 10, but not higher. It's strange to me that he'd make 2015 the year he'd go for the double...he's on the wrong side of 30, and we are in an era of several top riders. From the start, this was going to be a very difficult challenge, and his form this year is showing it may not quite be good enough.

It's only strange if you don't understand his mentality. He has said he won't be remembered for one more Giro win in a year or one more Tour win in a year; he already has nine. He knows that if he is able to do the double that will give him a much greater status. Better now than never.

I guess if I were him (ha!, if I were Alberto Contador!) I would have gone all in for one more TdF win, instead of trying an-almost impossible feat. Like it or not, and regardless of what knowledgeable cycling fans think, the Tour is the biggest bike race in the world. He may choose to focus on the Tour in his final season, in which case, it's probably ok that he tried the double in his penultimate season. However, he hasn't shown any of his "old" form this season, and he's not the kind of rider who "magically" turns it around during a big race. He may hold his form while others tire, or he may even steadily improve, but there will be no sudden improvement that allow him to shed Froome. It's pretty clear he's at a level below Froome.

 

[IamIronMan]

Re: Re:

Apart from the ITT in the Giro, has Contador done anything this year that was super impressive?

Anyway, Froome was clearly the #1 favorite for the Tour, so there really should be no surprise. A fully rested AC would have trouble beating Froome anyway, IMO, but add in the Giro, and his "just OK" form so far this year, and I could see him finishing somewhere around top 10, but not higher. It's strange to me that he'd make 2015 the year he'd go for the double...he's on the wrong side of 30, and we are in an era of several top riders. From the start, this was going to be a very difficult challenge, and his form this year is showing it may not quite be good enough.

a) Winning the Giro was pretty impressive wasn't it? Or was that not good enough for you?
b) Froome is 30. Is he on the right side of it? And seriously, two years difference in age??? Hey Quintana is 25, he must be much better than Froome right?

Oh yea, who was that guy who stomped all over Froome in the Vuelta? Alberto somebody right?

a- I already explained that. Did you watch the Giro? What did he do, apart from the ITT that was impressive? Yes, he won the race, but against a field that did not include Nibali, Quintana, Froome, TVG, Talansky, Valverde, Purito, and on and on... Who finished 2nd and 3rd, a second tier guy in Aru and a "nobody" in Landa (who, BTW was better than Contador on all climbing stages). The win was impressive, his form in it was not.

b- Contador has many, many, many years of racing in his legs, and it is showing. Do you honestly believe Contador is showing anything close to what he was when he was in his 20's? Also, this is not the Clinic, but Froome is an entire other subject, I believe in him as much as I do Santa Claus. But anyway, Froome is not the one who is trying to both the Giro and the Tour in the same year.

Last year is last year, and as I said, Froome comes good for one race, just like Armstrong did, and for the same reasons, IMO. So Contador beating him was impressive, but it would have been much more impressive in the Tour, when Froome's "magic" was in full effect. It would be great if he could pull off the double, but adding up everything I've seen this season from him, and how tough this Tour is going to be, I just don't see it happening. Just trying to be honest.

 

[richwagmn]

Re: Re:

[


a- I already explained that. Did you watch the Giro? What did he do, apart from the ITT that was impressive? Yes, he won the race, but against a field that did not include Nibali, Quintana, Froome, TVG, Talansky, Valverde, Purito, and on and on... Who finished 2nd and 3rd, a second tier guy in Aru and a "nobody" in Landa (who, BTW was better than Contador on all climbing stages). The win was impressive, his form in it was not.

b- Contador has many, many, many years of racing in his legs, and it is showing. Do you honestly believe Contador is showing anything close to what he was when he was in his 20's? Also, this is not the Clinic, but Froome is an entire other subject, I believe in him as much as I do Santa Claus. But anyway, Froome is not the one who is trying to both the Giro and the Tour in the same year.

Last year is last year, and as I said, Froome comes good for one race, just like Armstrong did, and for the same reasons, IMO. So Contador beating him was impressive, but it would have been much more impressive in the Tour, when Froome's "magic" was in full effect. It would be great if he could pull off the double, but adding up everything I've seen this season from him, and how tough this Tour is going to be, I just don't see it happening. Just trying to be honest.

Winning two GTs in 6 months time is pretty damn impressive. One day does not a GT make. Ever.

I don't believe Contador is showing us his Verbier magic because of reasons I can't discuss here. We honestly aren't seeing performances like that very much any more. Probably for reasons you and I both agree on.

Yes, doing the Giro/TDF is just about impossible. But I've read the same statement from several DSes, that AC is probably the ONLY rider who could pull it off today. So he must not be aging as much as you think (or the people running teams don't know anything).

You seem completely sure that Froome has this in the bag. After three days of racing, I believe that opinion is hugely premature.

And Contador deserves far more respect than you seem willing to give him.

 

[Kwibus]

@Taxus4a

It looks more like Contador offended you by not mentioning Landa. I doubt Landa is offended.
I'm getting sick and tired of your everlasting whining about the Giro, Condador and your biggest friend Landa which clearly clouds your objectivity.

 

[Iker_Baqueiro]

So much pessimism over a few "bad" days of Contador.

He is one of the GOATs.Just like Indurain. He almost retires. He'll be missed. Prepare for some boring races after he's gone.

I say he is still in the fight. If at the end he loses, he'll do so like a true champion, he'll go down swinging.

 

[rhubroma]

Re: Re:

Hate to say it, but Contador got this wrong for what he is aiming to do.

I know full well that cycling is much more competitive than in the past, though that said I can't see how he showed up for this race with the condition he has.

When guys road the Giro-Tour double back in the 80's and 90's, they always showed up for one thing with their weight right, but I don't see this with Contador and I just can't fathom how after 2013 he could have expected to beat the likes of Froome and co. with his current physical status.

I realize some may think I'm beating a dead horse, but really after Colle della Finestra and the photo's I saw recently I said to myself, he's not going to be anywhere near brilliant enough to do it. A Contador in top shape, doesn't put in a performance like the terrible one on the Mur today.


He'll have to improve considerably to be anywhere near capable of dropping Froome in the mountains at this point.

Indeed!

Not really, because how for f-s sake did he and his staff mess all of this up. You want to go for the big a$$ feat, then at least show up with your weight where it needs to be. Then if you fail, ok, but don't make this kind of showing.

I'm sorry, but another 2013 after all the hype is really bad.

I think we all know your opinion .

I'm going to argue that that's just not the case, in the sense my "opinion," unfortunately, is physiological fact.

I'm looking at the photo in today's la Gazzetta dello Sport of Froome blasting up the Mur with a distanced Contador behind and the comparative faces tell the whole story.

Even more than before, these days weight makes a huge difference. This is why Sky, for better or for worse, have become so maniacal about it and judging from the photos of Froome and the way he rides, the effects are self-evident.

This is why I can't fathom what Contador has been thinking, with all due respect mind you. Because after 2013 he seemed to have gotten the message, judging by 2014's performances and how he showed up at the Tour then.

Personally, I think it's a matter of mental rigor and the type of soldier like discipline off the bike that he lacks compared to Chris Froome and, unfortunately, his main competition has upped the bar so considerably that he can't get away with his undeniable talent like he did as a younger rider.

I think he was already on the wrong foot at the Giro with his weight and for the Tour, at least on the face of it, I expect him to be getting dropped like a stone in the mountains, which is a huge blow to his career.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

@Taxus4a

It looks more like Contador offended you by not mentioning Landa. I doubt Landa is offended.
I'm getting sick and tired of your everlasting whining about the Giro, Condador and your biggest friend Landa which clearly clouds your objectivity.

I doubt it's just Landa, before the Giro Taxus also posted loads of these illegible hate posts.
I think, through all the bad grammar and spelling, I've identified the issue, but it's Clinic territory.

 

[LaFlorecita]

So much pessimism over a few "bad" days of Contador.

He is one of the GOATs.Just like Indurain. He almost retires. He'll be missed. Prepare for some boring races after he's gone.

I say he is still in the fight. If at the end he loses, he'll do so like a true champion, he'll go down swinging.

Indeed, this thread is enough to send someone into a depression.

 

[buchanan]

Re:

Apart from the ITT in the Giro, has Contador done anything this year that was super impressive? On the Mortirolo stage of the Giro, which is probably his most "impressive" race of the year, if you look at it objectively, it wasn't that impressive. It looked more impressive than it was based on outside factors (Astana "tactics), but he still got dropped at the end of that race. Everyone keeps saying "wait for this, wait for that" as if he's going to come onto some magical form at some point. I just don't see it. Frankly, lots of excuses for many of his Giro performances (not on top form, conserving energy, no reason to chase certain guys, etc...) Go rewatch Contador of 5, 6, 7 years ago...he was absolutely devastating. I see NONE of that now. He is slow, lacks any explosiveness, and he looks all twisted up when he climbs (I know he has his signature climbing style, but it looks pained now, it's not nearly as fluid or efficient). He was good enough to win the Giro against a pretty mediocre field, but this year's tour is a Big-Boy race, and so far he is showing to be a level (or two) below the other main contenders. I'll keep waiting for the flash of brilliance, but I have no reason, based on watching his races this year, to believe it will come.

Anyway, Froome was clearly the #1 favorite for the Tour, so there really should be no surprise. A fully rested AC would have trouble beating Froome anyway, IMO, but add in the Giro, and his "just OK" form so far this year, and I could see him finishing somewhere around top 10, but not higher. It's strange to me that he'd make 2015 the year he'd go for the double...he's on the wrong side of 30, and we are in an era of several top riders. From the start, this was going to be a very difficult challenge, and his form this year is showing it may not quite be good enough.

Good analysis. I see it pretty much the same.

 

[rhubroma]

Re:

Apart from the ITT in the Giro, has Contador done anything this year that was super impressive? On the Mortirolo stage of the Giro, which is probably his most "impressive" race of the year, if you look at it objectively, it wasn't that impressive. It looked more impressive than it was based on outside factors (Astana "tactics), but he still got dropped at the end of that race. Everyone keeps saying "wait for this, wait for that" as if he's going to come onto some magical form at some point. I just don't see it. Frankly, lots of excuses for many of his Giro performances (not on top form, conserving energy, no reason to chase certain guys, etc...) Go rewatch Contador of 5, 6, 7 years ago...he was absolutely devastating. I see NONE of that now. He is slow, lacks any explosiveness, and he looks all twisted up when he climbs (I know he has his signature climbing style, but it looks pained now, it's not nearly as fluid or efficient). He was good enough to win the Giro against a pretty mediocre field, but this year's tour is a Big-Boy race, and so far he is showing to be a level (or two) below the other main contenders. I'll keep waiting for the flash of brilliance, but I have no reason, based on watching his races this year, to believe it will come.

Anyway, Froome was clearly the #1 favorite for the Tour, so there really should be no surprise. A fully rested AC would have trouble beating Froome anyway, IMO, but add in the Giro, and his "just OK" form so far this year, and I could see him finishing somewhere around top 10, but not higher. It's strange to me that he'd make 2015 the year he'd go for the double...he's on the wrong side of 30, and we are in an era of several top riders. From the start, this was going to be a very difficult challenge, and his form this year is showing it may not quite be good enough.

I think if Contador had simply gotten himself into last year's shape, as we saw at the Vuelta he can follow Froome's accellerations and still have the punch to drop him. Notwithstanding Froome's crash in last year's Dauphine, Contador still showed he can blast away like he used to and I think we would have possibly seen similar feats at the 2014 Tour had they both stayed upright.

The point is that Froome has managed to get himself where he needs to be for the war consistently since 2012 around these parts, but Contador, no, he has been up and down with his form. Though I can't understand how, given last year's example - the result of 2013's lesson - he and DeJonge could have botched it so badly this season.

I agree with you, he has been performing undertone the entire season and, for a while at least, I was waiting for the moment when his form would come up significantly, but that hasn't happened. For this reason I think at this point it's too late and frankly I'm left wondering why one earth they'd have risked another humiliation, the moment when it became evident that Contador would not be up to an acceptable level.

The weird thing is that this seems to be the case with Team Tinkoff in general, with Basso being the most glaring example. I realize this seems far fetched, but it seems that the team hasn't taken seriously enough what it would have cost them to perform up to their highest level, since anything less was never going to cut it.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm hopeful, 41 is my lucky number, ask Nibali how #41 fared last year

 

[malakassis]

seeing contador suffering in the mur made me sad. i hope he s just trying to peak for the 3rd week. but i doubt he will even reach top five this year. anyone who believe AC will still win is a dreamer. even if froome nibali and nairo crashed out, theres still fresher and younger guys. this lineup is just the best of the last 25 years.
the last guy who doubled was pantani in his best years. plus he wisely used a lucky situation of ulrich collaps. before it was miguel doubling in 92/93. the guy with the hugest engine in cycling and optimal biomechaniks. the odds for a lucky situation like in 98 are almost 0. and physikally AC is as mentioned before just weaker then before his ban. i hope noticing this situation forces him to make some unexpected blows like in 2012 vuelta fuente de.

 

[leon993]

C'mon guys. Race is still early. Do you remember in the old days? There it was normal to have one off day on a grand tour. This makes Contador's win in Giro absolutely normal. What was abnormal in the Giro, was that he won it alone, almost without any team support. Also in the old days it was said, that in a grand tour it was better being in your 30's than in your 20's. Who says he hasn't timed timed his form for 3rd week and that Froome has mistimed his form so he peaks in the first week. In this tour it also seems like a whole different TS team. So relax plz.

 

[cellardoor]

@rhubroma - I think you're misguided in thinking that there is a formula to doing the double that means you can turn up at the Giro and the Tour in perfect form, the same form as if you'd just targeted one or the other. Perhaps it was possible in the 90s, but that's a different era when being skeletal was not a pivotal factor. Losing that last KG that makes the difference between being skinny and being skeletal must be extremely difficult and require intense training and a very controlled diet. This is the exact opposite of what Contador needed after the Giro, he needed rest and to eat healthily so that his body could repair itself. In my opinion, there just isn't enough time between the Giro and the Tour to both recover and train at the intensity required to get to Froome level of fitness (esp. weight-wise). At the same time, I don't think it was an option to go into the Giro in peak form/weight and try to more or less hold it for the Tour - I mentioned before that I think he'd almost certainly get sick or injured being at such a low weight for so long, besides even considering the fact that he'd probably fade in the Tour. form-wise

At the beginning of the Tour, Tinkov commented that "it isn't fair that Contador is racing against guys that are fresh" before going on to say he still believes in Contador in a subdued manner. Throw-away comment? Personally, I read quite a lot into this and I believe that Contador and his team knew it just wasn't physically possible to be at 100% in the Tour and his training data leading up to the Tour showed that.

This doesn't mean he has no chance - I still believe he's in pretty good form and perhaps peak form will come in the 3rd week, maybe Froome will fade, maybe he can benefit from playing the stronger guys off against each other or other tactics.

Whilst Basso's attempts in 2005 and 2006 must provide useful data, we also have to remember they were both ultimately unsuccessful attempts. In 2005 he bonked heavily in the Giro at an early stage and was able to rest-up for all except one stage of the remainder of the race. In 2006 we just don't know what Basso would have done at the Tour - it seems to me that Basso peaked for the Giro and just hoped for the best at the Tour. But even in 05/06 I believe that illicit methods of recovery were available that are far more difficult today (I don't mean to imply they're saints today, but times have changed in terms of what you can and can't get away with).

One other thing to bear in mind when comparing this double attempt to Indurain and Pantani. Indurain and Pantani were head and shoulders above everyone else in their respective disciplines of TTing and climbing. They didn't need to be at 100% to still be the best at those disciplines. In particular, I've noticed that good TTers are often able to put in a good TT even when the form isn't great. Ullrich in the '06 Giro is a good example of that. On the other hand, I don't think Contador has ever been head and shoulders above his competition at either TTing or climbing. It's just that he's been one of the best at both and is sublime at eeking out a win one way or t'other.