Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Jspear]

Re:

In the post-WW2 era of the Tour, the MAX number of years between a multi-Tour winner's first and last victory was 8. This gap occurred twice, Anquetil (1957-1964) and Hinault (1978-1985). In the entire history of the Tour, only Bartali's wins in 1938 and 1948 were further apart in time (11 years). Contador first won the Tour in 2007. The 2016 parcours will be the 9th year after his first win. A century of history suggests Contador's success odds are very low.

Those are some interesting stats...thanks for sharing. Though interesting, it has no bearing on AC's situation. He isn't bound by history.

 

[Jelantik]

if contador starts his early season flying.. then we are all can hope for what TDF form he will bring

if he wins the next year tour, he should do vuelta. And if he wins it, then just like other poster suggested about 100th Giro on 2017, he should finish his career at the Giro. And he wins the Giro.. at least he got treble That's not too shabby for finishing someone's career. Besides, he loves racing in Italy anyway.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

My personal feeling is that if Contador wins the Tour, he'll go to the Olympics and the Vuelta, a course which I'm sure they'll pretty much design for him to ensure he goes in his 'final' year. If he goes on to win the Vuelta, he will ride the 100th Giro…he'd have to be an idiot not to try for one last time to hold all three Tours in a row and being able to focus on the hardest one - the Giro - for 2017 would make the task a lot easier than trying to do the double the other way. And it needn't involve announcing it as an intention…all predicated on what happens at the Tour in 2016.

But in many ways, though it makes me sad, I won't be sorry to see Contador retire. GTs are becoming more and more about team power and less about individual brain and brawn, IMO, and it is to the detriment for my enjoyment of the sport. It makes it a much more power vs. intelligence race than previously and generally much more leaning towards the defensive than an attacking strategy, which is more predictable. Aside from stage 2 and Nibali's antics on 19, the Tour didn't really do it for me. Nairo attacked far too little too late, and there was no way he was ever going to make up the time he needed on Alpe unless Froome had a mechanical. I'll admit had Contador won, I might have felt happier, but even so, despite the course, it didn't really take off.

I hear - don't know if it's true - that Nibs will do the Giro next year. I hope so. I am really hoping we have a return to Nibs 1.0. I enjoyed lots of races way more this year than the Tour, despite going to France to watch it. Felt like such a circus rather than the race a lot of the time. I usually like the protracted unfolding narrative of the GTs, but even the Giro, in retrospect, was probably saved by Contador being injured and outnumbered. But the absurdity of Astana's power also left a bad taste. Mortirolo was a great watch, but on the whole, over the whole race, the Vuelta has been my favourite, probably because there was the unknown factor of two riders recovering from injury and hence some uncertainty.

I hope this year's Vuelta isn't just an Astana vs. Sky arms race. I'm not sure I will watch if so.

Great post
As for the middle part, we have to hope that your fellow countryman Brailsfraud runs out of ideas.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

My personal feeling is that if Contador wins the Tour, he'll go to the Olympics and the Vuelta, a course which I'm sure they'll pretty much design for him to ensure he goes in his 'final' year. If he goes on to win the Vuelta, he will ride the 100th Giro…he'd have to be an idiot not to try for one last time to hold all three Tours in a row and being able to focus on the hardest one - the Giro - for 2017 would make the task a lot easier than trying to do the double the other way. And it needn't involve announcing it as an intention…all predicated on what happens at the Tour in 2016.

But in many ways, though it makes me sad, I won't be sorry to see Contador retire. GTs are becoming more and more about team power and less about individual brain and brawn, IMO, and it is to the detriment for my enjoyment of the sport. It makes it a much more power vs. intelligence race than previously and generally much more leaning towards the defensive than an attacking strategy, which is more predictable. Aside from stage 2 and Nibali's antics on 19, the Tour didn't really do it for me. Nairo attacked far too little too late, and there was no way he was ever going to make up the time he needed on Alpe unless Froome had a mechanical. I'll admit had Contador won, I might have felt happier, but even so, despite the course, it didn't really take off.

I hear - don't know if it's true - that Nibs will do the Giro next year. I hope so. I am really hoping we have a return to Nibs 1.0. I enjoyed lots of races way more this year than the Tour, despite going to France to watch it. Felt like such a circus rather than the race a lot of the time. I usually like the protracted unfolding narrative of the GTs, but even the Giro, in retrospect, was probably saved by Contador being injured and outnumbered. But the absurdity of Astana's power also left a bad taste. Mortirolo was a great watch, but on the whole, over the whole race, the Vuelta has been my favourite, probably because there was the unknown factor of two riders recovering from injury and hence some uncertainty.

I hope this year's Vuelta isn't just an Astana vs. Sky arms race. I'm not sure I will watch if so.

Great post
As for the middle part, we have to hope that your fellow countryman Brailsfraud runs out of ideas.

I subscribe for the great post. As for Brainsfraud, Sky is basically in a position to buy everybody who's good, add in their unique recipe to transform any donkey willing to take a scientific approach to training into a mountain goat who can run like a race horse if needed and you have a worse situation than with LA's teams. These Brits want to win ALL races.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

My personal feeling is that if Contador wins the Tour, he'll go to the Olympics and the Vuelta, a course which I'm sure they'll pretty much design for him to ensure he goes in his 'final' year. If he goes on to win the Vuelta, he will ride the 100th Giro…he'd have to be an idiot not to try for one last time to hold all three Tours in a row and being able to focus on the hardest one - the Giro - for 2017 would make the task a lot easier than trying to do the double the other way. And it needn't involve announcing it as an intention…all predicated on what happens at the Tour in 2016.

But in many ways, though it makes me sad, I won't be sorry to see Contador retire. GTs are becoming more and more about team power and less about individual brain and brawn, IMO, and it is to the detriment for my enjoyment of the sport. It makes it a much more power vs. intelligence race than previously and generally much more leaning towards the defensive than an attacking strategy, which is more predictable. Aside from stage 2 and Nibali's antics on 19, the Tour didn't really do it for me. Nairo attacked far too little too late, and there was no way he was ever going to make up the time he needed on Alpe unless Froome had a mechanical. I'll admit had Contador won, I might have felt happier, but even so, despite the course, it didn't really take off.

I hear - don't know if it's true - that Nibs will do the Giro next year. I hope so. I am really hoping we have a return to Nibs 1.0. I enjoyed lots of races way more this year than the Tour, despite going to France to watch it. Felt like such a circus rather than the race a lot of the time. I usually like the protracted unfolding narrative of the GTs, but even the Giro, in retrospect, was probably saved by Contador being injured and outnumbered. But the absurdity of Astana's power also left a bad taste. Mortirolo was a great watch, but on the whole, over the whole race, the Vuelta has been my favourite, probably because there was the unknown factor of two riders recovering from injury and hence some uncertainty.

I hope this year's Vuelta isn't just an Astana vs. Sky arms race. I'm not sure I will watch if so.

Great post
As for the middle part, we have to hope that your fellow countryman Brailsfraud runs out of ideas.

I subscribe for the great post. As for Brainsfraud, Sky is basically in a position to buy everybody who's good, add in their unique recipe to transform any donkey willing to take a scientific approach to training into a mountain goat who can run like a race horse if needed and you have a worse situation than with LA's teams. These Brits want to win ALL races.

Dont worry, they won't.They won't win a single monument and next year their GT record won't be so impressive (0) imo

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

[quote="Great post
As for the middle part, we have to hope that your fellow countryman Brailsfraud runs out of ideas.

I subscribe for the great post. As for Brainsfraud, Sky is basically in a position to buy everybody who's good, add in their unique recipe to transform any donkey willing to take a scientific approach to training into a mountain goat who can run like a race horse if needed and you have a worse situation than with LA's teams. These Brits want to win ALL races.

Well, look at their budget, then look at their squad for any race that doesn't involve a mountain...

No superstar puncher, no superstar for the cobbled classics.

 

[jsem94]

Thankfully they don't have a classics team yet. If they build one, I hope they seriously implode. It's not good for the sport.

 

[hfer07]

Alberto calling his season done for this year after San Sebastian.........

that means he's going to commit 120% for the next year's TDF

 

[infeXio]

Re:

Alberto calling his season done for this year after San Sebastian.........

that means he's going to commit 120% for the next year's TDF

He'll ride some criterium in Denmark in a couple of weeks apparently

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Alberto calling his season done for this year after San Sebastian.........

that means he's going to commit 120% for the next year's TDF

Yep! He disappeared early in 2013 as well. Then came 2014.

 

[ninjadriver]

Re: Re:

Because Contador's odds of winning the 2016 Giro and the 2016 Vuelta (meaning both, not just one) are substantially greater than his odds of winning the 2016 TDF, because, while the Giro and Vuelta generally have harder courses:

1. The TDF has far superior fields, so every stage is faster and harder.
2. The TDF climbs are easier (less steep) than are the Giro's (Zoncolan, Mortirolo, etc.) or the Vuelta's (L'Angliru, etc.), so the TDF course does not favor Contador.
3. I predict Froome, Landa (if supporting Froome), Quintana, Nibali (if no longer on Astana), Aru (if Nibali no longer is on Astana), Bardet and Pinot all will ride the TDF, and none of whom will ride the Giro or the Vuelta, or at least on rested, top form.

So, lots of reasons. But Contador will ignore them all, and go for the TDF. I give him substantially less than a 50% chance, although I'd be rooting hard for him.

Yeah but as long as Contador comes in rested, in top form as well, I don't see those riders being a threat;

The odds are irrelevant, of course they won't give him winner since he hasn't won the Tour since 2010, but there are reasons for that.

All your paragraph about the gradient is absolute nonsense, Contador's even better on average gradient 7 - 12% than he is on extreme gradient.

There you go again with your insulting, personal attacks, calling part of my post "absolute nonsense." Contador did just fine on the Zoncolan and L'Angliru in the past, not to mention his Herculean blast up this year's Mortirolo.

How about we agree that I won't comment on your posts, and you won't comment on mine, or am I being absolutely nonsensical, Blurry????

 

[ninjadriver]

Re: Re:

As great a Giro as Landa had this season. He is not a PROVEN GT commodity. YET! However he is going to SKY and they could pull out that talent in him. To me I see him as the next "Porte". Powels does not have that GT contender talent. He is pure climbing help.

AC doing the double this season was his choice. Yes Oleg wanted the Giro. He lives in Italy. Now he will ask AC to go for the Tour next season. If AC hits his 14' form. He could beat Froome. But he needs to have that form. And he knows it.

Hook, I would post the following odds for Contador vs. Froome in the 2016 TDF, assuming great health for both and not knowing how TT-heavy the course will be, with Alberto as a marginal favorite, despite Froome having the better team and in part because Contador tactically is the superior rider:

Froome +120
Contador -140

HOWEVER, the other problems we must not forget are called Nibali, Quintana, maybe Landa (unless he's Kloden super domestique-ing for Froome) and Aru. Nibali will be gunning next year, and he is a super high class rider, like him or not.

And what if Bardet or Pinot improve??? I'd so much rather a then 33 year old Contador do the Giro & Vuelta, take his Grand Tour total to a record-tying 11, and call it a career.

Contador can perfectly win the Tour with a good run up and preperation, why would he go do Giro - Vuelta when he can win the Tour? Especially after all these years, he said he will not end his career without winning the Tour and prove he is the best.

Because Contador's odds of winning the 2016 Giro and the 2016 Vuelta (meaning both, not just one) are substantially greater than his odds of winning the 2016 TDF, because, while the Giro and Vuelta generally have harder courses:

1. The TDF has far superior fields, so every stage is faster and harder.
2. The TDF climbs are easier (less steep) than are the Giro's (Zoncolan, Mortirolo, etc.) or the Vuelta's (L'Angliru, etc.), so the TDF course does not favor Contador.
3. I predict Froome, Landa (if supporting Froome), Quintana, Nibali (if no longer on Astana), Aru (if Nibali no longer is on Astana), Bardet and Pinot all will ride the TDF, and none of whom will ride the Giro or the Vuelta, or at least on rested, top form.

So, lots of reasons. But Contador will ignore them all, and go for the TDF. I give him substantially less than a 50% chance, although I'd be rooting hard for him.

i disagree. You made is sound like Contador is a so-so rider. We never actually see how 100% contador in the tour yet. He finally got the unbelievable form last year just to crash. So everything is now speculation. I heard Porte's interview, he said Froome hasn't been healthy for long time (either he means during the tour or just in general). With his skinny body, his achilles heels is his health. His win this year and 2013 are different. He was dominant on the first mountain stage and he is beatable on week three. Quintana, he needs more experience to topple either Froome/Contador. Nibali, if there's cobble again, he can buffer his lead before mountain. Contador 100% has just about the same chance as Nibali, Quintana or Froome to win TDF. I won't ride him that completely. Unless he tries Giro-Tour double again. He rarely fails when he targets one GT goal. (except 2013)

Jelantik: If as you state above "Contador (at) 100% has just about the same chance as Nibali, Quintana or Froome to win (the) TDF," that means his odds of winning it are 1 in 4, which is 25%, which is substantially less than 50%, which is what I postulated. Is my math good???

 

[movingtarget]

Ah what a catalogue of horrors and regrets this thread has become. But it is nice to read some posts based on reality also. The days of possible doubles and winning multiple GTs are over. Only the most hopeful would think otherwise. The ones that believe in Sky monsters and devils on two wheels stealing crowns from their favourite. Yes it's true that Froome is every stylists nightmare but he gets results. Don't get greedy, the golden age of Contador is over, soon you will have to find a new idol to worship. Someone to vanquish the evil men in black.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Ah what a catalogue of horrors and regrets this thread has become. But it is nice to read some posts based on reality also. The days of possible doubles and winning multiple GTs are over. Only the most hopeful would think otherwise. The ones that believe in Sky monsters and devils on two wheels stealing crowns from their favourite. Yes it's true that Froome is every stylists nightmare but he gets results. Don't get greedy, the golden age of Contador is over, soon you will have to find a new idol to worship. Someone to vanquish the evil men in black.

Thats true, but AC is still winning GT's, and we hope he can net TdF next year, we are still living the great cycling dream from 2007 on



As for Froome, Im not one of the haters, as he is a great attacker and funny to watch , only pissed that his team is so strong every couple of years.

 

[amih77]

Albert is out of CSS:

Alberto Contador ✔@albertocontador
Good morning all,3 days after the Tour still continue with fever.Sorrowfully I cannot be in San Sebastian.
12:21 PM - 29 Jul 2015

 

[robin440]

feeeeever

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Albert is out of CSS:

Alberto Contador ✔@albertocontador
Good morning all,3 days after the Tour still continue with fever.Sorrowfully I cannot be in San Sebastian.
12:21 PM - 29 Jul 2015

ohhh , get well soon Berto.Probably the season is over now?

 

[amih77]

Re: Re:

Albert is out of CSS:

Alberto Contador ✔@albertocontador
Good morning all,3 days after the Tour still continue with fever.Sorrowfully I cannot be in San Sebastian.
12:21 PM - 29 Jul 2015

ohhh , get well soon Berto.Probably the season is over now?

Seems so, unless he develops an appetite for Milano-Torino and/or Lombardia.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Albert is out of CSS:

Alberto Contador ✔@albertocontador
Good morning all,3 days after the Tour still continue with fever.Sorrowfully I cannot be in San Sebastian.
12:21 PM - 29 Jul 2015

ohhh , get well soon Berto.Probably the season is over now?

Seems so, unless he develops an appetite for Milano-Torino and/or Lombardia.

I dont think its about appetite but rather whats good for his body in order to winter preparation

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Albert is out of CSS:

Alberto Contador ✔@albertocontador
Good morning all,3 days after the Tour still continue with fever.Sorrowfully I cannot be in San Sebastian.
12:21 PM - 29 Jul 2015

ohhh , get well soon Berto.Probably the season is over now?

Seems so, unless he develops an appetite for Milano-Torino and/or Lombardia.

I dont think its about appetite but rather whats good for his body in order to winter preparation

Indeed. I allready said it during the Tour that he should end his season after the TdF and rest. He has raced 4 GT's in a row and has had a lot of race days.
Time to put the body to rest and start preparing for next year, for another 2014 kind of form level.

 

[hrotha]

He doesn't have many race days though. 65 this year and in 2014, 66 in 2013. Most riders would keep racing.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

He doesn't have many race days though. 65 this year and in 2014, 66 in 2013. Most riders would keep racing.

3 1 week long races is the same number of race days (if not more) as a GT. Nowhere near as draining as a GT tho

 

[Carols]

I hope he hangs up the competition wheels for the year and lets his body recuperate. Then he can start his preparation for his final year and begin in great shape with an early season mini peak and a super peak for le Tour. It's a shame he never got to enjoy his Giro win and instead ends the season on a whimper . Rest Well Alberto and no babies until you are retired

 

[Publicus]

Re:

I hope he hangs up the competition wheels for the year and lets his body recuperate. Then he can start his preparation for his final year and begin in great shape with an early season mini peak and a super peak for le Tour. It's a shame he never got to enjoy his Giro win and instead ends the season on a whimper . Rest Well Alberto and no babies until you are retired

Yes to both of these. Speaking of babies, when are Froome and his wife expecting? If it is early in 2016, it will definitely impact his TdF build (I don't care what he says to the contrary, it will). Which means we'll hear about how he wasn't at 100% when Contador stomps a mudhole in him.

EDIT: Oh and no books until he retires!

 

[Netserk]

Re:

He doesn't have many race days though. 65 this year and in 2014, 66 in 2013. Most riders would keep racing.

Yeah. He should do an exhibition in Post Danmark Rundt like Basso did in 2005