Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Publicus]

Re:

Really strange stage... Contadot didn't even try to follow. He usually tries and cracks. This time he just didn't accelerate. Simple as that... Like he wasn't even interested... Didn't push much on the descent either...

that's what i saw but my stream was breaking up constantly. i think when Porte attacked he didn't try to follow and never upped the tempo.

 

[Red Rick]

The mindblowing bit isn't that he got dropped.

The mindblowing bit isn't how hard Porte and Froome went

It's that Aru and Fuglsang went as fast or even faster

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

The mindblowing bit isn't that he got dropped.

The mindblowing bit isn't how hard Porte and Froome went

It's that Aru and Fuglsang went as fast or even faster

I would be okay with Aru winning the Tour :razz:

 

[DFA123]

I think you could make a strong argument in the last two years or so, that Aru is a better climber than Contador in top form. Contador's much more consistent - much more of a diesel type climber and generally a better overall GC rider. But Aru's performances in Andorra and in the last week of the 2015 Giro are a level above imo.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

I think you could make a strong argument in the last two years or so, that Aru is a better climber than Contador in top form. Contador's much more consistent - much more of a diesel type climber and generally a better overall GC rider. But Aru's performances in Andorra and in the last week of the 2015 Giro are a level above imo.

Mortirolo says hello... what did aru show in the last year? This "strong argument" collapsed too easy... please don't turn you in a taxus 2, you're better than that

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think you could make a strong argument in the last two years or so, that Aru is a better climber than Contador in top form. Contador's much more consistent - much more of a diesel type climber and generally a better overall GC rider. But Aru's performances in Andorra and in the last week of the 2015 Giro are a level above imo.

Mortirolo says hello... what did aru show in the last year? This "strong argument" collapsed too easy... please don't turn you in a taxus 2, you're better than that

Aru did nothing last year; that's kind of what I meant saying Contador is way more consistent with his level and a better GC rider in general. Aru seems to have these peaks and then long, sustained valleys in performance. But, on any given individual mountain stage where both riders are at their best, I think Aru's level could be slightly higher than Contador's nowdays.

Not saying it is for sure, but just that you could make that case. So it's not so surprising that Aru could drop him.

 

[lenric]

I agree that, currently, Aru's ceiling is higher than Contador's.

 

[panache]

Re:

I agree that, currently, Aru's ceiling is higher than Contador's.

I see it this way...

Form = Fitness - Fatigue

Training blocks of three weeks followed by a week of active recovery seem to be a generally accepted way to work on form. The recovery week is when the adaptation happens. Form takes a big leap after that week of recovery. Large efforts like overtraining or grand tours, while boosting fitness, also increase fatigue to the point where a week of rest is not adequate. More qualified posters can comment how this is reflected in the Training Stress Score (TSS) and other measures.

When measuring your own form against those of your rivals, (and realizing you are behind), you can always overtrain to boost your fitness to the point where you look impressive. Aru, Chavez, TJVG all come to mind. To prove they are relevant, they overtrain to stay with the best. They have flashes of brilliance, but then crash in the grand tours, as the effort needed to boost their fitness becomes an anchor in the last 10 days.

Based upon my interpretation of what Contador has said since December, he has realized that in past years, internal and external pressure to match Froome blow-by-blow has compelled him to overtrain. He has sacrificed overall form to try to boost his fitness to Froome levels.

By giving up on doing well at the Dauphine, Contador can make the race a part of one of his training blocks. That means he would want to keep his power in a range dictated by his training plan, as it is part of a bigger block of training. It would also mean that he hasn't had the active recovery necessary prior to the Dauphine to realize the benefits of his last training camp. Instead, he is likely to use the last 10 days prior to the Tour as his recovery so that he comes in fresh, but with a new adaptation from a long hard block of training.

Does that mean I think he is going to podium the Tour? Who knows. I think he is probably only at 85% today. If the others are at 90%+, I think it will be competitive. If he just got beaten by others also at 85%, then it could be a long month of July.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

How does he put in the same tt time as Froome and then get demolished the day after? Seems weird to me?

I think that he thought that it was too hard to follow Froome and decided to follow AV, I'm not sure that he was at his limit in the climb. He reminds me of Dauphiné 09

Lol...

It's my opinion you foolish fanboy... Maybe you were in his body and have more information than i do...?

Haha, ok. He dropped despite he could follow Porte and Froome, makes sense bro.

Isn't that what he said before the race? But no, you didn't want to believe it and still don't, better believe he is in crap form.

 

[lenric]

Too complicated. The answer is simple: age is catching up.

No need for astrophysics. The guy has been declining over the last years and that is perfectly normal. He'll be 35 in December.
It's not as if he would be 2007-2011 for the entirety of his career. It's not as if he would be the one to beat in every GT. He was the brightest star for years, but that light has been fading. That happened with him as had happened with every other guy. No one can avoid decline unless retiring at his peak, like Nico Rosberg did.

 

[Jelantik]

Re: Re:

Really strange stage... Contadot didn't even try to follow. He usually tries and cracks. This time he just didn't accelerate. Simple as that... Like he wasn't even interested... Didn't push much on the descent either...

that's what i saw but my stream was breaking up constantly. i think when Porte attacked he didn't try to follow and never upped the tempo.

you should try these stream next time: (click on cycling menu on the top)
http://www.stopstream.me/

 

[Iker_Baqueiro]

Re: Re:

I agree that, currently, Aru's ceiling is higher than Contador's.

I see it this way...

Form = Fitness - Fatigue

Training blocks of three weeks followed by a week of active recovery seem to be a generally accepted way to work on form. The recovery week is when the adaptation happens. Form takes a big leap after that week of recovery. Large efforts like overtraining or grand tours, while boosting fitness, also increase fatigue to the point where a week of rest is not adequate. More qualified posters can comment how this is reflected in the Training Stress Score (TSS) and other measures.

When measuring your own form against those of your rivals, (and realizing you are behind), you can always overtrain to boost your fitness to the point where you look impressive. Aru, Chavez, TJVG all come to mind. To prove they are relevant, they overtrain to stay with the best. They have flashes of brilliance, but then crash in the grand tours, as the effort needed to boost their fitness becomes an anchor in the last 10 days.

Based upon my interpretation of what Contador has said since December, he has realized that in past years, internal and external pressure to match Froome blow-by-blow has compelled him to overtrain. He has sacrificed overall form to try to boost his fitness to Froome levels.

By giving up on doing well at the Dauphine, Contador can make the race a part of one of his training blocks. That means he would want to keep his power in a range dictated by his training plan, as it is part of a bigger block of training. It would also mean that he hasn't had the active recovery necessary prior to the Dauphine to realize the benefits of his last training camp. Instead, he is likely to use the last 10 days prior to the Tour as his recovery so that he comes in fresh, but with a new adaptation from a long hard block of training.

Does that mean I think he is going to podium the Tour? Who knows. I think he is probably only at 85% today. If the others are at 90%+, I think it will be competitive. If he just got beaten by others also at 85%, then it could be a long month of July.

+1000. One of the best posts I've read. Objectivity at its best.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Too complicated. The answer is simple: age is catching up.

No need for astrophysics. The guy has been declining over the last years and that is perfectly normal. He'll be 35 in December.
It's not as if he would be 2007-2011 for the entirety of his career. It's not as if he would be the one to beat in every GT. He was the brightest star for years, but that light has been fading. That happened with him as had happened with every other guy. No one can avoid decline unless retiring at his peak, like Nico Rosberg did.

That may be the case but of bloody course he'll be stronger at the Tour than he is now

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

It would be great for the race if Bertie is just in training mode right now and then can truly challenge in July. I'll be honest, I don't think he can. Would like to be proven wrong though.

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

Really strange stage... Contadot didn't even try to follow. He usually tries and cracks. This time he just didn't accelerate. Simple as that... Like he wasn't even interested... Didn't push much on the descent either...

that's what i saw but my stream was breaking up constantly. i think when Porte attacked he didn't try to follow and never upped the tempo.

you should try these stream next time: (click on cycling menu on the top)
http://www.stopstream.me/

actually it wasn't the stream, it was my old iMAC. 10 years apparently is about the limit for one of these :lol:

 

[Climber123]

Re: Re:

I agree that, currently, Aru's ceiling is higher than Contador's.

I see it this way...

Form = Fitness - Fatigue

Training blocks of three weeks followed by a week of active recovery seem to be a generally accepted way to work on form. The recovery week is when the adaptation happens. Form takes a big leap after that week of recovery. Large efforts like overtraining or grand tours, while boosting fitness, also increase fatigue to the point where a week of rest is not adequate. More qualified posters can comment how this is reflected in the Training Stress Score (TSS) and other measures.

When measuring your own form against those of your rivals, (and realizing you are behind), you can always overtrain to boost your fitness to the point where you look impressive. Aru, Chavez, TJVG all come to mind. To prove they are relevant, they overtrain to stay with the best. They have flashes of brilliance, but then crash in the grand tours, as the effort needed to boost their fitness becomes an anchor in the last 10 days.

Based upon my interpretation of what Contador has said since December, he has realized that in past years, internal and external pressure to match Froome blow-by-blow has compelled him to overtrain. He has sacrificed overall form to try to boost his fitness to Froome levels.

By giving up on doing well at the Dauphine, Contador can make the race a part of one of his training blocks. That means he would want to keep his power in a range dictated by his training plan, as it is part of a bigger block of training. It would also mean that he hasn't had the active recovery necessary prior to the Dauphine to realize the benefits of his last training camp. Instead, he is likely to use the last 10 days prior to the Tour as his recovery so that he comes in fresh, but with a new adaptation from a long hard block of training.

Does that mean I think he is going to podium the Tour? Who knows. I think he is probably only at 85% today. If the others are at 90%+, I think it will be competitive. If he just got beaten by others also at 85%, then it could be a long month of July.

Amazing post

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

I agree that, currently, Aru's ceiling is higher than Contador's.

I see it this way...

Form = Fitness - Fatigue

Training blocks of three weeks followed by a week of active recovery seem to be a generally accepted way to work on form. The recovery week is when the adaptation happens. Form takes a big leap after that week of recovery. Large efforts like overtraining or grand tours, while boosting fitness, also increase fatigue to the point where a week of rest is not adequate. More qualified posters can comment how this is reflected in the Training Stress Score (TSS) and other measures.

When measuring your own form against those of your rivals, (and realizing you are behind), you can always overtrain to boost your fitness to the point where you look impressive. Aru, Chavez, TJVG all come to mind. To prove they are relevant, they overtrain to stay with the best. They have flashes of brilliance, but then crash in the grand tours, as the effort needed to boost their fitness becomes an anchor in the last 10 days.

Based upon my interpretation of what Contador has said since December, he has realized that in past years, internal and external pressure to match Froome blow-by-blow has compelled him to overtrain. He has sacrificed overall form to try to boost his fitness to Froome levels.

By giving up on doing well at the Dauphine, Contador can make the race a part of one of his training blocks. That means he would want to keep his power in a range dictated by his training plan, as it is part of a bigger block of training. It would also mean that he hasn't had the active recovery necessary prior to the Dauphine to realize the benefits of his last training camp. Instead, he is likely to use the last 10 days prior to the Tour as his recovery so that he comes in fresh, but with a new adaptation from a long hard block of training.

Does that mean I think he is going to podium the Tour? Who knows. I think he is probably only at 85% today. If the others are at 90%+, I think it will be competitive. If he just got beaten by others also at 85%, then it could be a long month of July.

this seems a reasonable and rational interpretation of events. the bolded part captures the ambiguity I feel right now perfectly.

 

[jilbiker]

Re: Re:

I agree that, currently, Aru's ceiling is higher than Contador's.

I see it this way...

Form = Fitness - Fatigue

Training blocks of three weeks followed by a week of active recovery seem to be a generally accepted way to work on form. The recovery week is when the adaptation happens. Form takes a big leap after that week of recovery. Large efforts like overtraining or grand tours, while boosting fitness, also increase fatigue to the point where a week of rest is not adequate. More qualified posters can comment how this is reflected in the Training Stress Score (TSS) and other measures.

When measuring your own form against those of your rivals, (and realizing you are behind), you can always overtrain to boost your fitness to the point where you look impressive. Aru, Chavez, TJVG all come to mind. To prove they are relevant, they overtrain to stay with the best. They have flashes of brilliance, but then crash in the grand tours, as the effort needed to boost their fitness becomes an anchor in the last 10 days.

Based upon my interpretation of what Contador has said since December, he has realized that in past years, internal and external pressure to match Froome blow-by-blow has compelled him to overtrain. He has sacrificed overall form to try to boost his fitness to Froome levels.

By giving up on doing well at the Dauphine, Contador can make the race a part of one of his training blocks. That means he would want to keep his power in a range dictated by his training plan, as it is part of a bigger block of training. It would also mean that he hasn't had the active recovery necessary prior to the Dauphine to realize the benefits of his last training camp. Instead, he is likely to use the last 10 days prior to the Tour as his recovery so that he comes in fresh, but with a new adaptation from a long hard block of training.

Does that mean I think he is going to podium the Tour? Who knows. I think he is probably only at 85% today. If the others are at 90%+, I think it will be competitive. If he just got beaten by others also at 85%, then it could be a long month of July.

We have theorized excuses for AC's so-so show in the last 3 yrs, some days good, some days bad, some days average, the concern is the good days are becoming less and less. I think he may be tired, certainly looks tired to me. I wonder if it is age but then it is different with Valverde, he does not look tired to me. AC does not look like he is currently in a job where you get paid for a hobby. Perhaps there is no alternate gig...who knows, but it does not look like he is having fun.

 

[Climber123]

Re: Re:

I agree that, currently, Aru's ceiling is higher than Contador's.

I see it this way...

Form = Fitness - Fatigue

Training blocks of three weeks followed by a week of active recovery seem to be a generally accepted way to work on form. The recovery week is when the adaptation happens. Form takes a big leap after that week of recovery. Large efforts like overtraining or grand tours, while boosting fitness, also increase fatigue to the point where a week of rest is not adequate. More qualified posters can comment how this is reflected in the Training Stress Score (TSS) and other measures.

When measuring your own form against those of your rivals, (and realizing you are behind), you can always overtrain to boost your fitness to the point where you look impressive. Aru, Chavez, TJVG all come to mind. To prove they are relevant, they overtrain to stay with the best. They have flashes of brilliance, but then crash in the grand tours, as the effort needed to boost their fitness becomes an anchor in the last 10 days.

Based upon my interpretation of what Contador has said since December, he has realized that in past years, internal and external pressure to match Froome blow-by-blow has compelled him to overtrain. He has sacrificed overall form to try to boost his fitness to Froome levels.

By giving up on doing well at the Dauphine, Contador can make the race a part of one of his training blocks. That means he would want to keep his power in a range dictated by his training plan, as it is part of a bigger block of training. It would also mean that he hasn't had the active recovery necessary prior to the Dauphine to realize the benefits of his last training camp. Instead, he is likely to use the last 10 days prior to the Tour as his recovery so that he comes in fresh, but with a new adaptation from a long hard block of training.

Does that mean I think he is going to podium the Tour? Who knows. I think he is probably only at 85% today. If the others are at 90%+, I think it will be competitive. If he just got beaten by others also at 85%, then it could be a long month of July.

We have theorized excuses for AC's so-so show in the last 3 yrs, some days good, some days bad, some days average, the concern is the good days are becoming less and less. I think he may be tired, certainly looks tired to me. I wonder if it is age but then it is different with Valverde, he does not look tired to me. AC does not look like he is currently in a job where you get paid for a hobby. Perhaps there is no alternate gig...who knows, but it does not look like he is having fun.

Of course he is tired if the above theory holds true!

 

[Publicus]

Re:

Too complicated. The answer is simple: age is catching up.

No need for astrophysics. The guy has been declining over the last years and that is perfectly normal. He'll be 35 in December.
It's not as if he would be 2007-2011 for the entirety of his career. It's not as if he would be the one to beat in every GT. He was the brightest star for years, but that light has been fading. That happened with him as had happened with every other guy. No one can avoid decline unless retiring at his peak, like Nico Rosberg did.

the problem with all of this is that Valverde is in the peloton with him and performing at arguably the highest level of his career

 

[Climber123]

Re: Re:

Too complicated. The answer is simple: age is catching up.

No need for astrophysics. The guy has been declining over the last years and that is perfectly normal. He'll be 35 in December.
It's not as if he would be 2007-2011 for the entirety of his career. It's not as if he would be the one to beat in every GT. He was the brightest star for years, but that light has been fading. That happened with him as had happened with every other guy. No one can avoid decline unless retiring at his peak, like Nico Rosberg did.

the problem with all of this is that Valverde is in the peloton with him and performing at arguably the highest level of his career

I am confused, AC and Valverde were essentially equals today. What is the problem then?

 

[dacooley]

well, froome distancing bertie and valverde on clowney little gear was emphatic. from my perspective bertie decided to take it really easy after getting dropped. i can't restrain myself from thinking he looks quite heavy actually. his weight is far from optimal which is weird.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Really strange stage... Contadot didn't even try to follow. He usually tries and cracks. This time he just didn't accelerate. Simple as that... Like he wasn't even interested... Didn't push much on the descent either...

Exactly!

It's not strange if you listened to his interviews leading up to the Dauphine.

 

[LeSensei]

Let people bash Contador for his performance today, we'll see how things go in July. Once again, the only thing I hope for is no crashes.

 

[panache]

Re: Re:

Too complicated. The answer is simple: age is catching up.

No need for astrophysics. The guy has been declining over the last years and that is perfectly normal. He'll be 35 in December.
It's not as if he would be 2007-2011 for the entirety of his career. It's not as if he would be the one to beat in every GT. He was the brightest star for years, but that light has been fading. That happened with him as had happened with every other guy. No one can avoid decline unless retiring at his peak, like Nico Rosberg did.

the problem with all of this is that Valverde is in the peloton with him and performing at arguably the highest level of his career

I used TJVG in my previous post as an example as someone who over trains in order to stay with the best. I believe TJVG does that, because he cannot be among the best in any other way.

Contador I see differently. He has frequently said in the past few years that his power numbers have been equal to his best ever. Again, there is no doubt in my mind that he could train to reach the power numbers of 2009 - 2011 if need be. However, age does affect one's ability to hold that form over time, and to even handle the stress of training that becomes necessary to hold that form. Showing the ability to hit the same power numbers (form) while being able to hold that form for shorter and shorter periods of time as he ages seems reasonable to me. His altered approach is an effort to offset his decline enough to sneak in one more shot at glory. Again, seems like the best shot he has.

Valverde? I have no answer for Valverde. I have to throw out his performances as an outlier and use the other thousands of riders who have declined in their mid-thirties as my comparison. Remember though, that Valverde's early season success comes mostly in the 1 - 7 day range, where fatigue isn't a huge factor. If he maintains into week 3 of the Tour, I'd be surprised.