- Aug 5, 2009
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i don't think you can compare Contador's career trajectory to Evans. They were very different riders so the age isn't going to mean much. One thing this race will do win or lose, it should clarify Contador's chances of winning future GTs. The last thing you want in a GT is to see the best riders crashing out or getting sick and retiring. I think this course suits Contador at this stage of his career. I just want to see a good battle with the top five riders. Next year with maybe Nibali and Dumoulin it could be even better.
gregrowlerson said:On a slightly more serious note, I think that Contador is the hardest to predict of the contenders this year. In the sense that I think it is possible for him to be strongly in contention for the yellow jersey with many of us telling you, "I told you so", just as it is possible for him to a minute plus behind on most of the major stages and finish well outside the top five, with many of us telling you, "I told you so".
Is the 'real' Contador post ban closer to the 2012/13 version, or to the 2014 version?
The Contador that we have seen post 2014 has reached levels that are sort of in the middle of those two contrasts. Still, there are many debatable factors within these seasons, and only really Alberto, and perhaps those in his inner sanctum, can truly know what his form was like in those times, and what it is like - or is likely to be like - now.
Most of us seem to put a line through the 2013 Tour. I'm not sure why. Perhaps because it was a long time ago, and perhaps because his form in 2014 was clearly so much better, and that he erased some of the mental fatigue from Froome's battering of him there, with victory over him in the 2014 Vuelta. But none of us knows the true extent of their injuries from the 2014 Tour. We all assumed that Alberto's was far worse, but maybe Chris's injury - despite coming earlier in the race - was worse, and took longer to heal. Or maybe Contador's peak form that year was simply a level above Froome's (backed up by suggestions that he doesn't come as close to a peak at the Dauphne as Froome does)?
But even all of that is three years ago now.
So what about 2015? Was Contador's Giro a grand success, or a slight disappointment (in terms of performance level)? How close was Contador's level in the long ITT and on the Mortirolo, to Froome's on PSM? I would guess that if you took 'peak' Contador from two weeks into the Giro and threw him into that MTF, then he finishers around half a minute behind Froome. But that's just a guess. Maybe he wouldn't even have kept up with Quintana?
Contador's Giro and Froome's Tour are actually fairly similar from that season. They both built substantial GC leads, which came under a slight threat on the final GC relevant stage. Contador's situation briefly looked more threatening, and he looked to have cracked even more, but he didn't have any teammates. It is possible that without Porte, that Froome could have lost that Tour to Quintana.
But he had a strong team then, and he has a strong team now.
But on an overall performance level, Contador's Giro in 2015 is possibly not much lesser to Froome's Tour. I suppose it depends on how you rate the level of Astana vs. Quintana.
Contador has not produced anything as impressive as his two weeks into the Giro 2015 form, since, IMO. However, Froome also has not produced any out of this world climbing performances since the 2015 Tour. He smashed Contador in last years long Vuelta ITT, but there are none of those in this years Tour (and on a lesser note Contador just beat him in this years Dauphne ITT anyway).
And what of that 2016 Vuelta? Much like the 2014 Vuelta, we don't know the full extent of Contador's circumstances from his injury at the Tour. We thought that his 2016 injury was lesser than his 2014 one, but perhaps it wasn't? Or perhaps his recovery from such an injury just isn't as good when two years older? Or perhaps it was just that his 2016 overall form, was that much below his 2014 form?
In 2017 Contador is still showing good form, if not close to what he showed on some stages in 2014. His performances in Paris-Nice showed us that he still has the hunger for real racing, and even that his legs still feel those "sensations" on occasion. If Froome doesn't return to quite his 2013 and 2015 level, and if Contador doesn't fall off his bike (a big IF), then to me, he has an outside chance at winning another Tour. Porte is likely to be stronger uphill and in the ITT's (at his peak level), but he hasn't faced the pressure of holding onto the lead in the third week of a GT yet. Contador won't count himself out if he is within striking distance going into the Alps.
And then we have Quintana who I doubt can win after doing the Giro, and a 37 year old Valverde (plus some other hopefuls such as Bardet and the Astana boys).
Contador is 34. That's old, but these days it's not that old. Evans won the Tour at 34. Armstrong won his last Tour at 33 (and podiumed at 37). Valverde is podiuming GT's beyond his mid 30's. And then there is Chris Horner.
And the course suits Contador. Even that last ITT. It is short, and has a short sharp hill in the middle of it.
I can almost see Alberto snatching yellow right there, right now
i don't think you can compare Contador's career trajectory to Evans. They were very different riders so the age isn't going to mean much. One thing this race will do win or lose, it should clarify Contador's chances of winning future GTs. The last thing you want in a GT is to see the best riders crashing out or getting sick and retiring. I think this course suits Contador at this stage of his career. I just want to see a good battle with the top five riders. Next year with maybe Nibali and Dumoulin it could be even better.
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